Du yuan's TV play of mining
Publish: 2021-05-22 23:28:56
1. First, historical experience shows that strict deflation standards are not fully applicable in China. According to the historical data of CPI month on month since January 2001 (the earliest data we have), China has never seen a negative growth of CPI month on month for six consecutive months, only a negative growth of CPI month on month for five consecutive months from March to July in 2002 and 2003. In the past two years, GDP growth was also at 9.1% and 10.0% respectively. Although still inconsistent with the above strict standards, no one now denies that China was suffering from severe deflation in those years (especially before 2002)< Secondly, China's CPI has been lower than the historical normal level for seven consecutive months. Although from the direct reading, February CPI was 0 month on month, it has not entered the negative growth range; Moreover, in December 2008 and January 2009, CPI even rose month on month, especially as high as 1.1% in January. However, if we observe the comparison between the month on month CPI level since January 2008 and the normal level over the years, we can clearly see that since August 2008, China's CPI has been continuously lower than the historical normal value, which has lasted for seven months. From a forward-looking point of view, this clearly implies that there will be great deflationary pressure in the future
Third, high monetary and credit growth is unlikely to be sustained, which will increase the pressure of deflation. Indeed, in theory, as long as the strong monetary credit can be sustained, an economy should not and cannot have sustained deflationary pressure. Since November last year, China has witnessed a strong growth in credit. In January, new credit reached a record of 1.62 trillion yuan, and it is said that the amount of new credit will break trillion yuan again in February. In the face of the strong growth of credit, M2 has rebounded since it bottomed out in November last year, reaching 18.8% in January, greatly exceeding the target of 17.0% this year. All of these seem to show that deflation is unsustainable even if there is a short-term negative year-on-year increase in prices at this stage< However, after analyzing the credit structure, it is found that credit is still mainly invested in relatively safe assets such as financial expansion projects and bills. This clearly shows that banks still have a strong risk aversion tendency, while the private sector's investment desire is still weak. M1, which fell to an all-time low in January, supports this judgment. This means that once the "security pie" such as fiscal expansion projects is carved up and private investment has not yet started, the strong credit and monetary growth will not be sustainable
Fourth, the shadow of global deflation is still shrouded, and China cannot stay out of it. As Premier Wen pointed out in the government work report, the current "global deflation trend is obvious". Meanwhile, the major Western economies have reced the policy target interest rate to an unprecedented infinite zero, which clearly shows the real threat of global deflation. Just as we can't stay out of the past round of global inflation, we may also be vulnerable to the coming global deflation
the above analysis shows that although it is still inconsistent with the classical deflation standard, it is an indisputable fact that China is facing huge deflation pressure. Forward looking policies must get rid of the fog and respond quickly with enough advance. Therefore, the future interest rate rection and reserve ratio rection should be the proper meaning of the topic. The day of sluggish credit growth will be the first time that interest rates will be cut this year. This time point may occur as early as the second quarter.)
Third, high monetary and credit growth is unlikely to be sustained, which will increase the pressure of deflation. Indeed, in theory, as long as the strong monetary credit can be sustained, an economy should not and cannot have sustained deflationary pressure. Since November last year, China has witnessed a strong growth in credit. In January, new credit reached a record of 1.62 trillion yuan, and it is said that the amount of new credit will break trillion yuan again in February. In the face of the strong growth of credit, M2 has rebounded since it bottomed out in November last year, reaching 18.8% in January, greatly exceeding the target of 17.0% this year. All of these seem to show that deflation is unsustainable even if there is a short-term negative year-on-year increase in prices at this stage< However, after analyzing the credit structure, it is found that credit is still mainly invested in relatively safe assets such as financial expansion projects and bills. This clearly shows that banks still have a strong risk aversion tendency, while the private sector's investment desire is still weak. M1, which fell to an all-time low in January, supports this judgment. This means that once the "security pie" such as fiscal expansion projects is carved up and private investment has not yet started, the strong credit and monetary growth will not be sustainable
Fourth, the shadow of global deflation is still shrouded, and China cannot stay out of it. As Premier Wen pointed out in the government work report, the current "global deflation trend is obvious". Meanwhile, the major Western economies have reced the policy target interest rate to an unprecedented infinite zero, which clearly shows the real threat of global deflation. Just as we can't stay out of the past round of global inflation, we may also be vulnerable to the coming global deflation
the above analysis shows that although it is still inconsistent with the classical deflation standard, it is an indisputable fact that China is facing huge deflation pressure. Forward looking policies must get rid of the fog and respond quickly with enough advance. Therefore, the future interest rate rection and reserve ratio rection should be the proper meaning of the topic. The day of sluggish credit growth will be the first time that interest rates will be cut this year. This time point may occur as early as the second quarter.)
2. Inflation means that under the condition of paper currency circulation, the money supply is greater than the actual demand for money, that is, the real purchasing power is greater than the output supply, resulting in currency devaluation, And the phenomenon of prices rising continuously and generally in a period of time
appropriate inflation is concive to the healthy development of the country and is beneficial to the market
the vicious inflation may lead to the unhealthy development of the country {the future profits after overdraft} and there may be greater flexibility in the subsequent period, which is relatively bad for the market Expenditure may make the market return to valuation
deflation occurs when the amount of money in circulation in the market decreases, the people's money income decreases, and the purchasing power decreases, which will affect the fall of prices and cause deflation. The long-term monetary tightening will restrain investment and proction, lead to the rise of unemployment rate and economic recession
less investment is bad for the market
appropriate inflation is concive to the healthy development of the country and is beneficial to the market
the vicious inflation may lead to the unhealthy development of the country {the future profits after overdraft} and there may be greater flexibility in the subsequent period, which is relatively bad for the market Expenditure may make the market return to valuation
deflation occurs when the amount of money in circulation in the market decreases, the people's money income decreases, and the purchasing power decreases, which will affect the fall of prices and cause deflation. The long-term monetary tightening will restrain investment and proction, lead to the rise of unemployment rate and economic recession
less investment is bad for the market
3. Your question is quite sharp. I think it's a long time! Let me talk about what I know
1. First of all, the devaluation and appreciation that we often hear on various social media are basically aimed at a package of international currencies or a certain currency. If there is no consumption and transaction abroad, there is no direct relationship. At present, the US dollar is still the international currency, and international trade is basically settled in US dollars. If the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, then in other words, the same amount of RMB can be exchanged for more US dollars. If the price of the US dollar remains unchanged, we can buy more things, which means that it is cheap and it is beneficial to import; But on the other hand, if the RMB price of domestic goods remains unchanged, we need more US dollars to buy them, which means that they are expensive, so it is not concive to exports
in practice, businessmen and governments are smart now. They will take into account the exchange rate of commodities to float prices, so depreciation or appreciation is important, but it is not the only measure. For example, our country will often introce some policies when RMB appreciation, such as export tax rebate, to support foreign trade
3. Let's divide the price rise into two types
one is the price rise caused by the shortage of basic means of proction. For example, the price of crude oil rises - the price of fuel and fertilizer and plastics rises - the cost of metallurgy and agriculture rises - the price of metals and crops rises - the price of end consumer goods rises
Second, there is excess liquidity, that is, there is more money circulating in the society, and the money is worthless, so the price rises
generally speaking, these two reasons appear one after another, which may be e to the consideration of the overall economic development of the country. In order to make money, banks increase the circulation of personal currency and the amount of loans to encourage economic development; It may also be that the economy is developing at a high speed and the government hopes to maintain it, so it has corresponding monetary policy support
both of them have strong amplification, which will make the price rise until it exceeds the affordability of economic development, and then collapse, which is called economic crisis
before the crisis, e to layer by layer amplification effect, all business entities will get higher profits. The so-called layer by layer, that is, raw materials up 1%, procts may have to add a little, up 2%. As for the salary issue, it involves the social distribution system and social welfare. Frankly speaking, your boss made money, but you didn't
so at this time, rising prices are good for stock prices. When your boss makes money and looks at the good economic situation, he will put his money into the stock market, which will further raise the stock price
when the price rises to the point that the public group like you can't afford to buy things, the demand for goods will decrease sharply, that is to say, in the collapse stage, the crisis is coming
if things can't be sold, the company will lose money. It needs cash to pay wages and rent. If you can't handle it, you will have a sale, a price rection, a loss and a fall in the share price
generally speaking, the price rise is positive at first and negative after reaching the critical point
4. In fact, both 1 and 3 said
5. This question is more tricky. RMB appreciation is likely to cause inflation. Because of the appreciation of RMB, a huge amount of international hot money for the purpose of speculation may flow into China in various situations to earn exchange rate difference, which leads to excess liquidity and inflation
if RMB devaluation is expected, a large amount of hot money withdrawal will lead to deflation
6. At present, the global problem is the lack of consumption, the economic crisis in a hundred years. However, in the medium and long term, as countries issue a large number of currencies ring the market rescue, the main problem in the future is inflation
to be honest, your question is very comprehensive and profound, involving the economic cycle, supply and demand, monetary policy, international trade, exchange rate, and all kinds of relationships, which affect each other and are quite complex. Let me review my lessons well. My level is also limited, I hope it can help you.
1. First of all, the devaluation and appreciation that we often hear on various social media are basically aimed at a package of international currencies or a certain currency. If there is no consumption and transaction abroad, there is no direct relationship. At present, the US dollar is still the international currency, and international trade is basically settled in US dollars. If the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, then in other words, the same amount of RMB can be exchanged for more US dollars. If the price of the US dollar remains unchanged, we can buy more things, which means that it is cheap and it is beneficial to import; But on the other hand, if the RMB price of domestic goods remains unchanged, we need more US dollars to buy them, which means that they are expensive, so it is not concive to exports
in practice, businessmen and governments are smart now. They will take into account the exchange rate of commodities to float prices, so depreciation or appreciation is important, but it is not the only measure. For example, our country will often introce some policies when RMB appreciation, such as export tax rebate, to support foreign trade
3. Let's divide the price rise into two types
one is the price rise caused by the shortage of basic means of proction. For example, the price of crude oil rises - the price of fuel and fertilizer and plastics rises - the cost of metallurgy and agriculture rises - the price of metals and crops rises - the price of end consumer goods rises
Second, there is excess liquidity, that is, there is more money circulating in the society, and the money is worthless, so the price rises
generally speaking, these two reasons appear one after another, which may be e to the consideration of the overall economic development of the country. In order to make money, banks increase the circulation of personal currency and the amount of loans to encourage economic development; It may also be that the economy is developing at a high speed and the government hopes to maintain it, so it has corresponding monetary policy support
both of them have strong amplification, which will make the price rise until it exceeds the affordability of economic development, and then collapse, which is called economic crisis
before the crisis, e to layer by layer amplification effect, all business entities will get higher profits. The so-called layer by layer, that is, raw materials up 1%, procts may have to add a little, up 2%. As for the salary issue, it involves the social distribution system and social welfare. Frankly speaking, your boss made money, but you didn't
so at this time, rising prices are good for stock prices. When your boss makes money and looks at the good economic situation, he will put his money into the stock market, which will further raise the stock price
when the price rises to the point that the public group like you can't afford to buy things, the demand for goods will decrease sharply, that is to say, in the collapse stage, the crisis is coming
if things can't be sold, the company will lose money. It needs cash to pay wages and rent. If you can't handle it, you will have a sale, a price rection, a loss and a fall in the share price
generally speaking, the price rise is positive at first and negative after reaching the critical point
4. In fact, both 1 and 3 said
5. This question is more tricky. RMB appreciation is likely to cause inflation. Because of the appreciation of RMB, a huge amount of international hot money for the purpose of speculation may flow into China in various situations to earn exchange rate difference, which leads to excess liquidity and inflation
if RMB devaluation is expected, a large amount of hot money withdrawal will lead to deflation
6. At present, the global problem is the lack of consumption, the economic crisis in a hundred years. However, in the medium and long term, as countries issue a large number of currencies ring the market rescue, the main problem in the future is inflation
to be honest, your question is very comprehensive and profound, involving the economic cycle, supply and demand, monetary policy, international trade, exchange rate, and all kinds of relationships, which affect each other and are quite complex. Let me review my lessons well. My level is also limited, I hope it can help you.
4.
It's about 4 kilometers from 1 Peking Road to Yingjun center, There are five options for taking the bus:
option 1: Tsuen Wan line → Hong Kong Island Line
20 minutes | 4.1km | walk 630m
No.1 Beijing Road
walk 10m
get on at Tsim Sha Tsui Station
Tsuen Wan line (central direction)
1 stop
get off at Admiralty Station
< P > get on at Admiralty StationHong Kong Island Line (Chaiwan direction)
1 stop
Wanchai station (exit A1) get off
walk 610m
Yingjun center
option 2: Tsuen Wan line → Citybus 88r
30 minutes | 4.6km | 370m
option 3: Tsuen Wan line → Citybus 40 / Citybus 40m
30 minutes | 4.6km | walk 450m
option 4: 110 road → Xinba 301
50 minutes | 6.8km | walk 330m
option 3 Scheme 5: 110 road → 115p / 115 road / 182p
50 minutes | 6.9km | 520m walk
in addition: taxi fee: 53 yuan (calculated according to the shortest driving distance)
5. Ci, Di and Portuguese CI holders are required to have a US visa before they can apply for the visa
resident visa
Mexico
address: room 1304, Yingjun center, 23 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong
Tel: 25113318
office hours: 9:00am-1:00pm (visa application) from Monday to Friday, 3: 00pm-4:00pm (to retrieve the visa)
visa fee: 226 yuan
working days: 3 days
documents required for visa: 3 photos, original and of ID card, original and of round-trip air ticket, company holiday letter and bank countersign / bank passbook Notes:
whether visa is required for Passport:
1. BNO visa free
2. Visa is required for SAR passport
3. Visa is required for CI
remarks:
US visa is required for CI, Di and Portuguese CI; Personal data should include the information of the employer (including business, address and telephone number). All passports must have a Hong Kong identity card to apply for a visa in Hong Kong.
visa validity date: about 3 months
headquarters:
address:
3004 Shui on centre, Shui on centre
6-8, harbour Road, Wanchai Harbour Road
Hong Kong, SAR.
Office hours:
Monday to Friday
9:00 - 13:00 hrs.
15:00 - 16.30 hrs.
Telephone numbers:
(852) 2511 3305
(852) 2511 3327 (servicios consulares)
Fax:
(852) 2845 3404
Telephone for Consular Protection:
(852) 9037 7491
E-mail:
consulmex@mex ico.com.hk
resident visa
Mexico
address: room 1304, Yingjun center, 23 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong
Tel: 25113318
office hours: 9:00am-1:00pm (visa application) from Monday to Friday, 3: 00pm-4:00pm (to retrieve the visa)
visa fee: 226 yuan
working days: 3 days
documents required for visa: 3 photos, original and of ID card, original and of round-trip air ticket, company holiday letter and bank countersign / bank passbook Notes:
whether visa is required for Passport:
1. BNO visa free
2. Visa is required for SAR passport
3. Visa is required for CI
remarks:
US visa is required for CI, Di and Portuguese CI; Personal data should include the information of the employer (including business, address and telephone number). All passports must have a Hong Kong identity card to apply for a visa in Hong Kong.
visa validity date: about 3 months
headquarters:
address:
3004 Shui on centre, Shui on centre
6-8, harbour Road, Wanchai Harbour Road
Hong Kong, SAR.
Office hours:
Monday to Friday
9:00 - 13:00 hrs.
15:00 - 16.30 hrs.
Telephone numbers:
(852) 2511 3305
(852) 2511 3327 (servicios consulares)
Fax:
(852) 2845 3404
Telephone for Consular Protection:
(852) 9037 7491
E-mail:
consulmex@mex ico.com.hk
6. Huanggang port is the best in the Yingjun center bus terminus bus, you can go directly
I don't know where the Pro is in Causeway Bay. I'll tell you where the pro Yingjun center is. It's at the Causeway Bay station of Tianxing ferry! It's at the Convention and Exhibition Center
the ticket price seems to be hkd45
I don't know where the Pro is in Causeway Bay. I'll tell you where the pro Yingjun center is. It's at the Causeway Bay station of Tianxing ferry! It's at the Convention and Exhibition Center
the ticket price seems to be hkd45
7. The new port of Futian used to be convenient, with many people in Luohu. Generally, they had to queue up to pass the customs; First take the KCR to Tsim Sha Tsui MTR station, then take the Tsuen Wan line to Admiralty (one station), and finally transfer to the Hong Kong Island Line to Wan Chai (one station). Although there are two transfers, except for a section of the KCR to Tsuen Wan line, the rest is to get off the subway and walk to the opposite platform.
the time from Lok Ma Chau to Tsim Sha Tsui East is about 45 minutes, The whole journey is about HK $33.4, including the time and cost of your transfer, it is estimated that it will take 60-70 minutes, and the cost is about HK $40
when the Wan Chai subway comes out, pay attention to the signs and walk across an overpass. But don't worry about the hints along the way. You can walk about 5-8 minutes to the exhibition center
in addition, if you go from Huanggang port (next to Futian new port and Hong Kong are collectively referred to as Lok Ma Chau), there are also buses that can go directly to the Wan Chai wharf near the Convention and Exhibition Center. If there is no traffic jam, the time and cost are not much different
the time from Lok Ma Chau to Tsim Sha Tsui East is about 45 minutes, The whole journey is about HK $33.4, including the time and cost of your transfer, it is estimated that it will take 60-70 minutes, and the cost is about HK $40
when the Wan Chai subway comes out, pay attention to the signs and walk across an overpass. But don't worry about the hints along the way. You can walk about 5-8 minutes to the exhibition center
in addition, if you go from Huanggang port (next to Futian new port and Hong Kong are collectively referred to as Lok Ma Chau), there are also buses that can go directly to the Wan Chai wharf near the Convention and Exhibition Center. If there is no traffic jam, the time and cost are not much different
8. Take a taxi to the bus terminus opposite Yingjun center, Wan Chai pier, and transfer to Huanggang transit bus for 24 hours to reach Huanggang port
9. You have to go to the South African Embassy in Beijing or Shanghai to apply, because it is used in China, not in Hong Kong,
10. About 10 minutes from the Wan Chai MTR station, the exit of Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center is the flyover. Walk along the flyover to the Immigration Department, walk right through the central building to the Convention and Exhibition Center, and walk right to Yingjun center to see Wan Chai pier
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