Kondratyev mining
Long cycle or long wave is a kind of economic cycle with a period of 50-60 years, which was put forward by Russian economist Nikolay kantladiev in 1926
According to the cycle theory, there are three long cycles since the end of the 18th centurythe first long cycle was from 1789 to 1849, the rising part was 25 years, the declining part was 35 years, a total of 60 years
the second long cycle was from 1849 to 1896, the rising part was 24 years, the declining part was 23 years, a total of 47 years
the third long cycle started in 1896, the rising part lasted for 24 years, and entered the declining period after 1920
it emphasizes that the internal causes of capitalist economy rather than external accidental factors should be used to explain the cause of long wave, and the long wave of economy should be attributed to the destruction and recovery of economic balance caused by the replacement of major fixed capital procts
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most neoclassical economists do not recognize the long wave theory, but the long wave is the cornerstone of many unorthodox economic theories, and Wallerstein's world system theory is also based on it. Even among the economists who approve of long wave, there is no final conclusion on the cause of long wave, the starting time and the division of each long wave. Some critics therefore believe that the so-called "long wave" is just a concept imposed on a large number of statistics
However, most long wave theorists agree that there have been five long waves since the instrial revolution, and the sixth one is about to start. Under the framework of Schumpeter's theory, these five long waves are respectively:1, instrial revolution (1771)
2, steam engine and Railway Era (1829)
3, iron and steel, electric power and heavy engineering Era (1875)
4, oil, automobile and mass proction era (1908)
5, information and communication era (1971)
from the point of view that science and technology is the driving force of the development of proctive forces, Kant rathiev cycle is the cycle of the development of proctive forces. The development cycle of proctivity is determined by the development cycle of science and technology. Now we will analyze this
Science and technology is a complete system. A proper division of this system is the starting point of the analysis. The system of science and technology is divided into three levels: scientific principle, technical principle and applied technology. In these three levels of relations, the development of scientific principles determines the development of technological principles, and the development of technological principles cannot exceed the limits determined by scientific principles; Similarly, the development of technology principle determines the development of application technology, and the development of application technology is restricted by technology principle. In the process that the development of scientific principle promotes the development of technical principle and the development of technical principle promotes the development of applied technology, the development of technical principle and applied technology in turn promotes the development of scientific principle. A certain technological principle will face a breakthrough after its potential is basically brought into play, transformed into applied technology and materialized into proctivity. The breakthrough of technological principle is based on its transformed applied technology and materialized proctivity, and is premised on certain scientific principles. Similarly, the development of scientific principles is also such a process. A certain scientific principle will also face a breakthrough after its potential has been brought into full play and transformed into technological principle, applied technology and materialized proctivity. This breakthrough is also based on the technological principle, applied technology and materialized proctivity that it has transformed< Therefore, the development of science and technology is a dialectical process of self denial. This power of self negation is accumulated in the process of its development. It is a process from weak to strong, and then from strong to weak. Gerhardt, a German scholar; In the 1970s, MenShi studied 110 kinds of technological innovation, and drew the curve of innovation time innovation frequency by counting the innovation time (initial commercialization time). The result shows that the curve shows a long-term wave trend. The curve shows that the peak time of technological innovation in 1860s, 1825, 1885 and 1925 is the middle of the world economic depression. Therefore, he concluded that economic depression is the premise of technological innovation, and the result of technological innovation is economic growth. " According to the invention time and large-scale commercial application time of 62 innovations from 1920 to 1970, British scholar Freeman concluded that technological innovation is carried out according to the technological system, and the share of various technologies in the new technological system in their respective instries increases according to the S-shaped curve. Therefore, the effect of the whole new technology system on economic growth shows the superposition of S-shaped curves of various technologies. Their research conclusions reflect the dialectical development process of science and technology system from the aspects of Applied Technology and materialized proctivity
from the point of view that science and technology are the driving force of proctivity development, we confirm that long-term fluctuation is the cycle of proctivity development, and deny the inevitable connection between long-term fluctuation and capitalist mode of proction. The unique economic cycle of capitalist mode of proction is caused by the periodic deviation of the actual equilibrium point of social reproction from the objective equilibrium point under private ownership, which is a long-term fluctuation
as we have said before, the ratio of the value used to expand reproction determined by the objective equilibrium point of social reproction to the capital in operation constitutes the average profit rate of capital. This average profit margin is not fixed, it is controlled by the speed of scientific and technological development. In the rising expenditure of long-term fluctuation, the frequency of new technology is stronger. The materialization of new technology requires more newly created value to be put into reproction, and a larger share of the value transformed from the operation of proctive forces is required to be distributed to capital. That is to say, the average profit rate determined by the objective equilibrium point of maintaining a virtuous cycle of social reproction tends to rise in the rising expenditure of long-term fluctuation, on the contrary, In the long-term fluctuation, the decreasing expenditure tends to decrease
the average profit rate here is the objective average profit rate determined by the economic law, which is different from the average profit rate in the actual economic life. The average profit rate formed in real economic life is the actual average profit rate. The movement of the actual average profit rate is always dominated by the objective average profit rate in theory. Just as the price fluctuates around the value, the actual average profit rate fluctuates around the objective average profit rate
in the capitalist mode of proction, the actual equilibrium point of social reproction periodically deviates from the objective equilibrium point, which is mainly manifested in the fact that the actual average profit rate is periodically higher than the objective average profit rate, resulting in the relative lack of social effective demand, and the economic crisis breaks out to a certain extent
in the long-term fluctuation of rising expenditure, new technologies are constantly emerging, leading to the emergence of new instries, and instries that embody new technologies and enterprises that first adopt new technologies can generally get excess profits. The strong frequency of new technology makes more enterprises get excess profits, which makes the actual average profit rate tend to rise. The rise of the actual average profit rate would have exacerbated the lack of effective social demand, making the economic crisis more serious. However, the objective average profit rate of long-term fluctuating rising expenditure also tends to rise, and the rising range is greater than that of the actual average profit rate. Therefore, the economic crisis does not tend to intensify, but tends to ease
in the declining branch of long-term fluctuation, the situation is just the opposite. The frequency of the emergence of new technology becomes weaker, new instries reflecting new technology appear less, and relatively few enterprises in the society get excess profits. Therefore, the actual average profit rate tends to decline ring this period. The decline of the actual average profit rate would have eased the lack of effective social demand, thus easing the economic crisis. However, in the decline of long-term fluctuations, the objective average profit rate tends to decline, and the decline is greater than the actual average profit rate. Therefore, in the long-term fluctuation of the decline, the economic crisis is not tend to ease, but tend to intensify
the long-term fluctuation from the analysis of capitalist economic life does not show that there is an inevitable connection between the long-term fluctuation and the capitalist mode of proction, because the development of modern science and technology is mainly achieved under the capitalist mode of proction. This determines that the typical form of long-term fluctuation can only exist in capitalist economic life.
it is generally believed that Schumpeter agrees with Kang's long wave period, but he proposes different periodic driving forces
Schumpeter thinks it is driven by innovation.
Before kantladiev, people have noticed that there is a certain regularity in the long period of prosperity and depression in the process of economic development. During the first World War, some economists had put forward the idea of long cycle. Kant ladiev's contribution is that he tested the assumption of long period with a large number of empirical statistical data, thus making it a more systematic periodic theory. Therefore, in 1939, through Schumpeter's proposal, the world's economic circles accepted the term "kantladiev cycle" to refer to the long-term fluctuations in the process of economic growth
Kant rathiev's theory determines the length of the long cycle with econometric method, and describes empirically the performance of the rising and falling stages in each cycle. However, although kantladiev conjectured that the existence of long wave is related to the wave of scientific and technological revolution, he did not give a convincing explanation for the reason of the emergence of long wave. Especially since the 1980s, econometric research using new data and new techniques can not determine whether long wave really exists, which makes the long wave theory have a significant empirical hypothesis nature. It's very interesting that many people in the world try to explain the reasons for the existence of long periods, and they put forward various conjectures
for example, some people think that the existence of long period is related to the cycle of sunspot activity, others think that it is related to the alternation of generations, and others think that it is related to the renewal cycle of plant and equipment. People can also guess that the long period is related to the ration of patent protection. Theoretically, any cycle in the macro scope has more or less impact on the long period. Schumpeter tried to use his innovation theory to give a systematic explanation for the long cycle, but the innovation theory can not explain why a cycle is 55 years instead of 75 years
In the 1920s, the former Soviet Union scholar Kondratyev proposed that there was a long-term fluctuation of 45-60 years in capitalist economic life. This kind of long-term fluctuation is known as the kantladiev cycle. Kant's periodic theory divides the system of science and technology into three levels: scientific principle, technological principle and applied technology. In these three levels of relations, the development of scientific principles determines the development of technological principles, and the development of technological principles cannot exceed the limits determined by scientific principles; Similarly, the development of technology principle determines the development of application technology, and the development of application technology is restricted by technology principle. In the process that the development of scientific principle promotes the development of technical principle and the development of technical principle promotes the development of applied technology, the development of technical principle and applied technology in turn promotes the development of scientific principle. A certain technological principle will face a breakthrough after its potential is basically brought into play, transformed into applied technology and materialized into proctivity. The breakthrough of technological principle is based on its transformed applied technology and materialized proctivity, and is premised on certain scientific principles. Similarly, the development of scientific principles is also such a process. A certain scientific principle will also face a breakthrough after its potential has been brought into full play and transformed into technological principle, applied technology and materialized proctivity. This breakthrough is also based on the technological principle, applied technology and materialized proctivity that it has transformed. Therefore, the development of science and technology is a dialectical process of self denial. This power of self negation is accumulated in the process of its development. It is a process from weak to strong, and then from strong to weak. Gerhard Munsch, a German scholar, studied 110 kinds of technological innovation in the 1970s. By counting the time of innovation (the time of initial commercialization), he drew the curve of innovation time innovation frequency, and the curve showed a wavy long-term fluctuation trend. The curve shows that the peak time of technological innovation in 1860s, 1825, 1885 and 1925 is the middle of the world economic depression. Therefore, he concluded that economic depression is the premise of technological innovation, and the result of technological innovation is economic growth. " According to the invention time and large-scale commercial application time of 62 innovations from 1920 to 1970, British scholar Freeman concluded that technological innovation is carried out according to the technology system, and the share of each technology in the new technology system in their respective instries increases according to the S-shaped curve. Therefore, the effect of the whole new technology system on economic growth shows the superposition of S-shaped curves of various technologies. Their research conclusions reflect the dialectical development process of science and technology system from the aspects of Applied Technology and materialized proctivity
Kant rathiev's periodic theory: it is a theory that examines the cyclical fluctuations in capitalist economy that last 50-60 years
in 1925, the former Soviet Union economist Kondratyev first put forward in his article "long waves in economic life" published in the United States< Based on the analysis of 36 statistical items of wholesale price level, interest rate, wage and foreign trade in capitalist countries such as Britain, France and the United States from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 20th century, he believes that there may be three long waves in the process of capitalist economic development:
(1) from 1789 to 1849, the rising part was 25 years, and the declining part was 35 years, totally 60 years
(2) from 1849 to 1896, it increased to 24 years and decreased to 23 years, a total of 47 years
(3) since 1896, it has been on the rise for 24 years, and it has been on the decline since 1920. The whole process is 140 years, including two and a half long cycles, which shows the long-term fluctuation of an average cycle of 50-60 years in economic development
kantladiev believes that the change of proction technology, war and revolution, the development of new markets, the discovery of gold, the increase of gold proction and reserves are not the fundamental reasons for the long wave movement. For example, the expansion of new markets generally does not cause long-term economic upsurge. On the contrary, economic upsurge will make it possible and necessary to expand new markets. The new discoveries of technology usually appear in the decline phase of a long period. These new discoveries will only be applied on a large scale at the beginning of the next big rise phase. As the rising stage of the long cycle causes a high degree of tension in expanding economic strength, it is also the main factor that provokes war and revolution. Kantladiev believes that the root of the long wave is those inherent in the essence of capitalist economy, especially closely related to capital accumulation