Changes of virtual currency in recent five years
Publish: 2021-03-22 22:09:56
1. China's international trade has been mainly settled in US dollars for a long time.
in recent years, there are also international currency settlement businesses such as euro and Japanese yen,
at the same time, with the acceleration of RMB internationalization process, since 2011, the amount of international trade business settled in RMB is graally increasing
in recent years, there are also international currency settlement businesses such as euro and Japanese yen,
at the same time, with the acceleration of RMB internationalization process, since 2011, the amount of international trade business settled in RMB is graally increasing
2.
You can check it on the foreign exchange website of jintou.com at: http://www.cngold.org/img_ date/cny_ USD. HTML
this is the monthly K-line chart in recent 4 years:
3. Are you going to test your trading strategy or something? The data I've been using recently is "jiaosubmatrix", which can be searched on the Internet. There are K-line, transaction data and order book data
4. If we analyze the trend of RMB exchange rate in the past five years, because it is really influenced by the trump administration in the United States, we can say that the trend of RMB exchange rate is mainly that it first appreciated and then depreciated and then appreciated, and now it is also in the channel of appreciation.
5. The depreciation rate of RMB in recent years. At present, the latest currency exchange rate is 1 RMB yuan = 0.1594 US dollars. Ten years ago, that is, on April 15, 2008, the exchange rate of RMB yuan to US dollars was 1 RMB yuan = 0.1429 US dollars. It should be said that the exchange rate of RMB yuan has appreciated by 11.16% compared with ten years ago.
6. Analysis of the causes and effects of RMB appreciation [Abstract] RMB exchange rate has become the focus of attention at home and abroad in recent years. On the basis of literature review and personal understanding, this paper first analyzes the reasons for RMB appreciation, then explores the impact of RMB exchange rate appreciation combined with China's actual situation, and finally puts forward countermeasures and policy suggestions based on personal understanding
[Key words] RMB appreciation purchasing power parity equilibrium exchange rate cost-benefit
I. The causes of RMB appreciation
in recent years, RMB exchange rate has become the focus of attention at home and abroad. After the exchange rate reform on July 21, 2005, China ended the "market-based, single and managed floating exchange rate system" since 1994, and turned to a more flexible "market-based, managed floating exchange rate system with reference to the exchange rate of a basket of currencies" instead of just pegging to the US dollar. Since then, RMB has rapidly appreciated by about 4.3% per year against the US dollar in a slight fluctuation, and it shows an accelerating trend. By February 21, 2008, RMB has appreciated by 11.8%
1. Long term exchange rate determination purchasing power parity theory
the starting point to understand the determination mechanism of exchange rate is a simple concept, namely the law of one price: if the goods proced by the two countries are homogeneous, and the transportation costs and transaction barriers are very low, then no matter which country the goods are proced by, their prices in the world should be the same. According to the theory of purchasing power parity, the change of exchange rate of any two currencies should reflect the change of the price level of the two countries
2. The equilibrium of medium and short-term exchange rate
for the medium and short-term exchange rate, this paper thinks that it is determined by the supply and demand of RMB in the market, and various factors in the market affect the supply and demand of RMB, and then affect the trend of RMB. This paper analyzes the situation of RMB exchange rate facing appreciation pressure through the supply and demand of foreign exchange market
(1) on the supply side
with the continuous and rapid development of China's economy, the export volume has increased significantly, and the amount of foreign investment has also remained at a high level. China is the country with the largest net capital inflow after the United States. Due to the double surpluses of current account and capital account, China's foreign exchange reserves show a momentum of rapid growth. In November 2006, foreign exchange reserves exceeded US $1 trillion, becoming the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. By December 2007, it reached a record US $1.5 trillion. The continuous increase of foreign exchange reserves, on the one hand, enhances China's ability to resist financial risks; on the other hand, excessive foreign exchange reserves also bring great pressure to China's macro-control, affecting the change of RMB exchange rate and increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation< (2) demand side
International comments on the appreciation of RMB were first put forward by Japan, the United States and other countries. In February 2003, Japanese finance minister Shoichiro Yanagawa declared at the meeting of finance ministers of the seven countries that "not only Japan's deflation is e to the import of too many cheap Chinese goods, but also the global economic downturn.". In June and July, U.S. Treasury Secretary snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan successively expressed their hope that RMB would be more flexible. Some American hospitals accused China of exporting a large number of cheap goods to the United States, resulting in a huge trade deficit in the United States, taking away employment opportunities in the United States, increasing the number of unemployed and depressing the economy. Later, the European Union also joined the ranks demanding RMB appreciation. After that, the international financial community is hot on the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and e to the sharp increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, the expectation and pressure of RMB appreciation are increased. Although the Chinese government has indicated on various occasions that it is necessary to maintain the stability of the RMB and avoid a substantial appreciation, the fact is that since July 2006, when the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 8.0:1 mark, the RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant appreciation and accelerated trend, which not only increases the further expectation of the international hot money on the appreciation of the RMB, Moreover, it is bound to increase the appreciation expectations of domestic residents and enterprises, which will lead to the decline of foreign exchange demand< Secondly, the cost and benefit of RMB appreciation
1. The cost of RMB appreciation
RMB appreciation may face the following costs: first, it may rece exports and international income; Second, it may increase the domestic unemployment rate, especially the export enterprises closely linked with the RMB exchange rate; Third, it may increase the cost of foreign direct investment, which is not concive to attracting new foreign direct investment; Fourth, it may trigger the impact of speculative capital on the RMB exchange rate
from the perspective of general economic theory, these costs mentioned above often occur with the appreciation of the currency. Now, in combination with the actual situation in China, we will talk about whether all these costs will occur and how much impact they have
(1) RMB appreciation and export
as far as China's trade structure is concerned, the price elasticity of export demand is relatively small, and the adjustment of exchange rate will not bring much change to China's overall export volume. At present, the trade of processing and assembling with supplied materials and the trade of processing and assembling with imported materials account for about 55% of China's exports, while the trade of processing and assembling with supplied materials only earns a fixed public fee, which has nothing to do with the change of exchange rate. The import processing trade depends on the proportion of imported intermediate procts and raw materials. When the RMB appreciation, the export price rises, which is not good for some enterprises, but its purchasing power increases, and it can buy imports at a lower price. The net effect of exchange rate changes remains to be seen
(2) RMB appreciation and China's employment
according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in recent years, China's urban registered unemployment rate has been more than 4%. Because China's population is too large, the employment problem has always been the focus of social and government attention. The appreciation of RMB will lead to the price rise of export procts, which will exert great pressure on those enterprises that proce low value-added and low efficiency procts and mainly rely on foreign trade. At present, there are a large number of such small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and the number of employees is very large. If the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate increases the export cost of their procts, and then affects their exports, leading to a sharp rise in the unemployment rate of these enterprises, then it will bring great social problems to China, which already has employment problems< (3) RMB appreciation and foreign direct investment
at present, it is difficult to say how much FDI inflow will be reced by RMB appreciation. Since the mid-1990s, new changes have taken place in the motivation of FDI inflow. More FDI comes from multinational companies in developed countries in Europe and the United States. The purpose of investing in China is more inclined to aim at China's vast market than to take advantage of China's cheap labor cost. As long as China's overall macro-economy does not change much, the inflow of FDI will not decrease much, and it may even develop steadily and continuously with China's economy, The inflow of FDI will increase than before. Because in today's economic globalization, the channels of capital circulation are becoming more and more smooth. Because of the inherent profit seeking nature of capital, China, which has a broad market and good development prospects, will be the hunting ground for capital< (4) RMB appreciation and speculative capital may cause the impact of international hot money in the process of exchange rate adjustment, which is a serious test in China, which lacks a perfect financial mechanism. Under the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, international investment capital will try its best to flow into China through various channels, and then withdraw capital after RMB appreciation. Although there is no conclusive evidence that the rapid growth of China's real estate market and securities market in recent years is caused by international hot money, there are more and more signs that it is inseparable from them
2. Income from RMB appreciation
the most direct income from RMB appreciation is to enhance the purchasing power of RMB. At the same price level, Chinese residents can buy more foreign procts, which improves people's living and welfare level to a certain extent. For enterprises, they can import more raw materials, which is concive to recing proction costs. Secondly, the appreciation of RMB will rece the external liabilities of Chinese government and enterprises, and improve their solvency under other conditions; Moreover, the appropriate appreciation is concive to the adjustment and optimization of China's instrial structure, and promote the upgrading of commodity structure< Third, conclusions and policy recommendations
RMB exchange rate appreciation has advantages and disadvantages. After weighing the costs and benefits, this paper holds that RMB appreciation will make the nominal exchange rate graally move closer to the real equilibrium exchange rate, which is beneficial to China's long-term economic development, but at the same time, we should see that China's current financial system is not perfect, and the ability to defend financial risks is weak The huge employment population and the foreign trade oriented economy and instrial structure, which are greatly affected by the fluctuation of exchange rate, require that preventive measures should be taken to deal with the possible risks
1. Expand domestic demand and rece dependence on foreign trade
China's dependence on foreign trade is very high. According to the data of China Customs, the total import and export volume in 2007 was 2173.83 billion US dollars. According to the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 7.5 RMB, China's dependence on foreign trade in 2007 was as high as 66%. However, statistics show that the proportion of China's consumption in the total GDP has graally declined in recent years. In 1992, the consumption rate was 62.4%. In 2007, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was 8921 billion yuan, and the consumption rate was only 36%. According to the empirical data since the reform and opening up, it is reasonable for China's consumption rate to be in the range of 61% - 65%. Investment, export and consumption are the troika of economic development. The current rapid economic development in China is mainly driven by investment, and it relies too much on export, resulting in a serious shortage of domestic demand. In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade and the actual situation, China urgently needs to expand domestic demand and increase the consumption rate. In this regard, the government should take various measures to increase the income of residents, further improve the medical, housing, pension and other aspects of the social security system, to eliminate the worries of the people, so as to effectively release demand, expand consumption, not because of the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate leading to a significant rection in exports, leading to substantial unemployment
2. Further improve the market mechanism of exchange rate formation and cultivate a relatively balanced exchange rate
the long-term nominal exchange rate deviates from the real exchange rate, resulting in exchange rate imbalance, which is not concive to the effective allocation of resources and the sound development of the economy. A perfect formation mechanism of equilibrium exchange rate is the fundamental measure to coordinate the balance of payments, and also the market solution to alleviate the "double surplus". For our country, it is unrealistic to float the exchange rate completely in the short term, but with the graal expansion of the floating range of the exchange rate, we can use the market mechanism to regulate the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market and implement a more flexible exchange rate system. At the same time, according to the multi polarization trend of the current international economic development, in the basket of currencies referenced by the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar component can be appropriately reced, and the proportion of euro, pound sterling, yen and other currencies can be increased, so as to avoid the risk that the fluctuation of US dollar will affect the substantial fluctuation of China's currency<
References:
[1] Lu Qianjin: currency and interest rate control under the condition of RMB appreciation. Shanghai finance, 2007, issue 5
[2] Wu Xinru: interaction between RMB and purchasing power parity: a VEC model analysis. Financial research, 2007, issue 8
[3] Wang Yuanlong: review and Prospect of RMB exchange rate trend. Contemporary finance, 2007, issue 3
[Key words] RMB appreciation purchasing power parity equilibrium exchange rate cost-benefit
I. The causes of RMB appreciation
in recent years, RMB exchange rate has become the focus of attention at home and abroad. After the exchange rate reform on July 21, 2005, China ended the "market-based, single and managed floating exchange rate system" since 1994, and turned to a more flexible "market-based, managed floating exchange rate system with reference to the exchange rate of a basket of currencies" instead of just pegging to the US dollar. Since then, RMB has rapidly appreciated by about 4.3% per year against the US dollar in a slight fluctuation, and it shows an accelerating trend. By February 21, 2008, RMB has appreciated by 11.8%
1. Long term exchange rate determination purchasing power parity theory
the starting point to understand the determination mechanism of exchange rate is a simple concept, namely the law of one price: if the goods proced by the two countries are homogeneous, and the transportation costs and transaction barriers are very low, then no matter which country the goods are proced by, their prices in the world should be the same. According to the theory of purchasing power parity, the change of exchange rate of any two currencies should reflect the change of the price level of the two countries
2. The equilibrium of medium and short-term exchange rate
for the medium and short-term exchange rate, this paper thinks that it is determined by the supply and demand of RMB in the market, and various factors in the market affect the supply and demand of RMB, and then affect the trend of RMB. This paper analyzes the situation of RMB exchange rate facing appreciation pressure through the supply and demand of foreign exchange market
(1) on the supply side
with the continuous and rapid development of China's economy, the export volume has increased significantly, and the amount of foreign investment has also remained at a high level. China is the country with the largest net capital inflow after the United States. Due to the double surpluses of current account and capital account, China's foreign exchange reserves show a momentum of rapid growth. In November 2006, foreign exchange reserves exceeded US $1 trillion, becoming the country with the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. By December 2007, it reached a record US $1.5 trillion. The continuous increase of foreign exchange reserves, on the one hand, enhances China's ability to resist financial risks; on the other hand, excessive foreign exchange reserves also bring great pressure to China's macro-control, affecting the change of RMB exchange rate and increasing the pressure of RMB appreciation< (2) demand side
International comments on the appreciation of RMB were first put forward by Japan, the United States and other countries. In February 2003, Japanese finance minister Shoichiro Yanagawa declared at the meeting of finance ministers of the seven countries that "not only Japan's deflation is e to the import of too many cheap Chinese goods, but also the global economic downturn.". In June and July, U.S. Treasury Secretary snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan successively expressed their hope that RMB would be more flexible. Some American hospitals accused China of exporting a large number of cheap goods to the United States, resulting in a huge trade deficit in the United States, taking away employment opportunities in the United States, increasing the number of unemployed and depressing the economy. Later, the European Union also joined the ranks demanding RMB appreciation. After that, the international financial community is hot on the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and e to the sharp increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, the expectation and pressure of RMB appreciation are increased. Although the Chinese government has indicated on various occasions that it is necessary to maintain the stability of the RMB and avoid a substantial appreciation, the fact is that since July 2006, when the central parity of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar broke through the 8.0:1 mark, the RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant appreciation and accelerated trend, which not only increases the further expectation of the international hot money on the appreciation of the RMB, Moreover, it is bound to increase the appreciation expectations of domestic residents and enterprises, which will lead to the decline of foreign exchange demand< Secondly, the cost and benefit of RMB appreciation
1. The cost of RMB appreciation
RMB appreciation may face the following costs: first, it may rece exports and international income; Second, it may increase the domestic unemployment rate, especially the export enterprises closely linked with the RMB exchange rate; Third, it may increase the cost of foreign direct investment, which is not concive to attracting new foreign direct investment; Fourth, it may trigger the impact of speculative capital on the RMB exchange rate
from the perspective of general economic theory, these costs mentioned above often occur with the appreciation of the currency. Now, in combination with the actual situation in China, we will talk about whether all these costs will occur and how much impact they have
(1) RMB appreciation and export
as far as China's trade structure is concerned, the price elasticity of export demand is relatively small, and the adjustment of exchange rate will not bring much change to China's overall export volume. At present, the trade of processing and assembling with supplied materials and the trade of processing and assembling with imported materials account for about 55% of China's exports, while the trade of processing and assembling with supplied materials only earns a fixed public fee, which has nothing to do with the change of exchange rate. The import processing trade depends on the proportion of imported intermediate procts and raw materials. When the RMB appreciation, the export price rises, which is not good for some enterprises, but its purchasing power increases, and it can buy imports at a lower price. The net effect of exchange rate changes remains to be seen
(2) RMB appreciation and China's employment
according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in recent years, China's urban registered unemployment rate has been more than 4%. Because China's population is too large, the employment problem has always been the focus of social and government attention. The appreciation of RMB will lead to the price rise of export procts, which will exert great pressure on those enterprises that proce low value-added and low efficiency procts and mainly rely on foreign trade. At present, there are a large number of such small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and the number of employees is very large. If the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate increases the export cost of their procts, and then affects their exports, leading to a sharp rise in the unemployment rate of these enterprises, then it will bring great social problems to China, which already has employment problems< (3) RMB appreciation and foreign direct investment
at present, it is difficult to say how much FDI inflow will be reced by RMB appreciation. Since the mid-1990s, new changes have taken place in the motivation of FDI inflow. More FDI comes from multinational companies in developed countries in Europe and the United States. The purpose of investing in China is more inclined to aim at China's vast market than to take advantage of China's cheap labor cost. As long as China's overall macro-economy does not change much, the inflow of FDI will not decrease much, and it may even develop steadily and continuously with China's economy, The inflow of FDI will increase than before. Because in today's economic globalization, the channels of capital circulation are becoming more and more smooth. Because of the inherent profit seeking nature of capital, China, which has a broad market and good development prospects, will be the hunting ground for capital< (4) RMB appreciation and speculative capital may cause the impact of international hot money in the process of exchange rate adjustment, which is a serious test in China, which lacks a perfect financial mechanism. Under the strong expectation of RMB appreciation, international investment capital will try its best to flow into China through various channels, and then withdraw capital after RMB appreciation. Although there is no conclusive evidence that the rapid growth of China's real estate market and securities market in recent years is caused by international hot money, there are more and more signs that it is inseparable from them
2. Income from RMB appreciation
the most direct income from RMB appreciation is to enhance the purchasing power of RMB. At the same price level, Chinese residents can buy more foreign procts, which improves people's living and welfare level to a certain extent. For enterprises, they can import more raw materials, which is concive to recing proction costs. Secondly, the appreciation of RMB will rece the external liabilities of Chinese government and enterprises, and improve their solvency under other conditions; Moreover, the appropriate appreciation is concive to the adjustment and optimization of China's instrial structure, and promote the upgrading of commodity structure< Third, conclusions and policy recommendations
RMB exchange rate appreciation has advantages and disadvantages. After weighing the costs and benefits, this paper holds that RMB appreciation will make the nominal exchange rate graally move closer to the real equilibrium exchange rate, which is beneficial to China's long-term economic development, but at the same time, we should see that China's current financial system is not perfect, and the ability to defend financial risks is weak The huge employment population and the foreign trade oriented economy and instrial structure, which are greatly affected by the fluctuation of exchange rate, require that preventive measures should be taken to deal with the possible risks
1. Expand domestic demand and rece dependence on foreign trade
China's dependence on foreign trade is very high. According to the data of China Customs, the total import and export volume in 2007 was 2173.83 billion US dollars. According to the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 7.5 RMB, China's dependence on foreign trade in 2007 was as high as 66%. However, statistics show that the proportion of China's consumption in the total GDP has graally declined in recent years. In 1992, the consumption rate was 62.4%. In 2007, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was 8921 billion yuan, and the consumption rate was only 36%. According to the empirical data since the reform and opening up, it is reasonable for China's consumption rate to be in the range of 61% - 65%. Investment, export and consumption are the troika of economic development. The current rapid economic development in China is mainly driven by investment, and it relies too much on export, resulting in a serious shortage of domestic demand. In view of the impact of RMB appreciation on China's foreign trade and the actual situation, China urgently needs to expand domestic demand and increase the consumption rate. In this regard, the government should take various measures to increase the income of residents, further improve the medical, housing, pension and other aspects of the social security system, to eliminate the worries of the people, so as to effectively release demand, expand consumption, not because of the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate leading to a significant rection in exports, leading to substantial unemployment
2. Further improve the market mechanism of exchange rate formation and cultivate a relatively balanced exchange rate
the long-term nominal exchange rate deviates from the real exchange rate, resulting in exchange rate imbalance, which is not concive to the effective allocation of resources and the sound development of the economy. A perfect formation mechanism of equilibrium exchange rate is the fundamental measure to coordinate the balance of payments, and also the market solution to alleviate the "double surplus". For our country, it is unrealistic to float the exchange rate completely in the short term, but with the graal expansion of the floating range of the exchange rate, we can use the market mechanism to regulate the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market and implement a more flexible exchange rate system. At the same time, according to the multi polarization trend of the current international economic development, in the basket of currencies referenced by the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar component can be appropriately reced, and the proportion of euro, pound sterling, yen and other currencies can be increased, so as to avoid the risk that the fluctuation of US dollar will affect the substantial fluctuation of China's currency<
References:
[1] Lu Qianjin: currency and interest rate control under the condition of RMB appreciation. Shanghai finance, 2007, issue 5
[2] Wu Xinru: interaction between RMB and purchasing power parity: a VEC model analysis. Financial research, 2007, issue 8
[3] Wang Yuanlong: review and Prospect of RMB exchange rate trend. Contemporary finance, 2007, issue 3
7.
The trend chart of euro against RMB in 2011-2015 is shown in the following figure:
you can query the specific time by yourself, and the way of exchange rate query:
1
There are also foreign exchange quotations on major financial websites3. You can also check the exchange rate through the foreign exchange query tool on your mobile phone
Most of the mobile phone futures market software also has the main currency exchange rate marketprecautions:
the exchange rate is constantly changing. Please refer to the exchange rate of the day you need when you use it. When you exchange at the bank counter and online banking, it is based on the real-time quotation at that time
8. Wang Chunzheng, executive deputy director of the State Development Planning Commission, delivered a speech yesterday at the Ministerial Forum of "2002 overseas Chinese young and middle-aged entrepreneurs' trip to China". He reviewed the great changes in China over the past 20 years of reform and opening up, and introced the current situation of China's macro economy
Wang Chunzheng pointed out that China's overall economic strength has further strengthened, and its GDP is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan (about 120 million US dollars) this year. Over the past two decades, China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of more than 9%. The problem of food and clothing for nearly 1.3 billion people has been solved. The phenomenon of commodity shortage has basically disappeared. The output of steel, coal, color TV and other instrial procts has ranked among the top in the world<
Wang Chunzheng told these overseas Chinese entrepreneurs that China's transportation, communication, energy supply and other infrastructure conditions have also been greatly improved. China's expressway mileage has reached nearly 20000 kilometers, ranking second in the world; The telephone penetration rate exceeds 30%. He also said that China's achievements in science, technology and ecation are also remarkable, with more than 8 million students in Colleges and universities this year
Wang Chunzheng also said that the marketization and internationalization of China's economic system are constantly improving. This year's total foreign trade import and export volume will exceed 600 billion US dollars (equivalent to more than 40% of GDP), which is expected to rank fifth in the world
after admitting the difficulties and problems in China's development, Wang Chunzheng also answered the questions of Chinese entrepreneurs from Japan, Vietnam and other places on social security, economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN.
Wang Chunzheng pointed out that China's overall economic strength has further strengthened, and its GDP is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan (about 120 million US dollars) this year. Over the past two decades, China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of more than 9%. The problem of food and clothing for nearly 1.3 billion people has been solved. The phenomenon of commodity shortage has basically disappeared. The output of steel, coal, color TV and other instrial procts has ranked among the top in the world<
Wang Chunzheng told these overseas Chinese entrepreneurs that China's transportation, communication, energy supply and other infrastructure conditions have also been greatly improved. China's expressway mileage has reached nearly 20000 kilometers, ranking second in the world; The telephone penetration rate exceeds 30%. He also said that China's achievements in science, technology and ecation are also remarkable, with more than 8 million students in Colleges and universities this year
Wang Chunzheng also said that the marketization and internationalization of China's economic system are constantly improving. This year's total foreign trade import and export volume will exceed 600 billion US dollars (equivalent to more than 40% of GDP), which is expected to rank fifth in the world
after admitting the difficulties and problems in China's development, Wang Chunzheng also answered the questions of Chinese entrepreneurs from Japan, Vietnam and other places on social security, economic and trade relations between China and ASEAN.
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