Zhai Shanying's virtual currency
The number of bitcoin is too small to circulate on a large scale in society. Moreover, its existence is not guaranteed by the national credit, but based on the trust between bitcoin players, so the credit of this "currency" is relatively low
moreover, the number of bitcoin is small, and it is too concentrated in the hands of several big players, resulting in its price is very unstable. This is basically not money. Because as a general currency, an important prerequisite is price stability, otherwise the economic order will collapse
bitcoin has no value base; The price fluctuates sharply; There are three basic reasons why bitcoin can't become the world currency e to the lack of support from monetary authorities
can bitcoin become a real currency? http://www.financialnews.com.cn/yw/pl/201401/t20140107_ 47595. HTML
since the birth of the first bitcoin seven years ago, bitcoin has been developing rapidly and caused a lot of controversy. The discussion focuses on how to define bitcoin, whether it can become a currency and even become an international currency in the future
in 2013, bitcoin was very popular in China, not only the price soared, but also was evaluated as "a big challenge to the current monetary system" by some analysts. In early December 2013, the people's Bank of China, together with five ministries and commissions, issued the notice on preventing bitcoin risks, pointing out that bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity, not a real currency. Then, bitcoin prices fell
at the beginning of the new year, on January 4, the National Bank of Malaysia announced on its website that it would not recognize bitcoin as a legal currency, and urged the public to be vigilant against its risks. In fact, since the second half of 2013, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Norway and other countries have successively made their stand against bitcoin trading activities, and they do not recognize bitcoin as a currency in the market
At the same time, it is reported that in January this year, the world's first bitcoin atmrobocoin entered the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets. Companies also plan to launch bitcoin ATMs in more parts of Europe, Canada and the United Stateson the one hand, the relevant regulatory authorities have "made their stand clear"; on the other hand, the global layout of bitcoin has been advancing rapidly. How to determine the nature of bitcoin and its future development momentum have once again attracted the attention of all parties
Sheng Songcheng, director general of the survey and Statistics Department of the people's Bank of China, published an article entitled "virtual currency is not money in essence -- take bitcoin as an example" in his own name, emphasizing that virtual currency represented by bitcoin is not money in essence and it is difficult to become money
he believes that bitcoin lacks national credit support and is difficult to perform the function of commodity exchange medium as the base currency. Modern credit currency (paper money) represents national credit, and actually represents the proction and transaction of commodities in the whole society. As long as the national machine works normally, the coercive force of national laws can give the public trust in the standard currency. Bitcoin has no value itself, no national credit support, and no guarantee of the whole society's commodity proction and trade, so it does not have the value basis of money. In addition, bitcoin has no legal compensation and compulsion, and its circulation range is limited and unstable. Bitcoin has strong substitutability, so it is difficult to be a general equivalent
Secondly, the number and scale of bitcoin have set an upper limit, which is difficult to meet the needs of modern economic development. He believes that there is a contradiction between the limited quantity of bitcoin and the expanding social proction and commodity circulation. If bitcoin becomes the standard currency, it will inevitably lead to deflation and inhibit economic development. The limitation of quantity also makes bitcoin's function as a means of circulation and payment greatly reced, which makes it easier to become a speculative object rather than a medium of exchange Thirdly, bitcoin lacks a central regulation mechanism, which is not compatible with the modern credit currency system. Sheng Songcheng believes that bitcoin does not have a centralized issuer, so it is easy to be over hyped, resulting in excessive price fluctuations, and can not become a pricing currency and circulation means, so it needs to be converted into bitcoin to pay; Bitcoin is also not controlled by the monetary authorities, so it is difficult to play the role of economic adjustment meansat the end of the article, Sheng Songcheng also made it clear that money is inseparable from economic operation and economic development, and is not a pure proct of technology. As long as there is no fundamental change in the form of modern economic and social organizations, the monetary system based on national credit will exist, and bitcoin and other virtual currencies will not become the standard currency of a country, and thus not the real currency, "but the Utopia of technology supremacy and absolute liberalism"
As for the prosperity and significance of bitcoin, Sheng Songcheng explained, "the emergence of bitcoin reflects people's worries about inflation under the condition of credit currency in a sense. Central banks should strengthen liquidity management, reasonably regulate money supply, keep prices basically stable, and promote stable economic and social development. "ring the writing period, our reporter contacted Sheng Songcheng again on issues related to bitcoin. He stressed again in the interview: "bitcoin is not the real currency, the real currency can only be the standard currency."
Sheng Songcheng said, "from the perspective of the history of monetary theory, bitcoin is not new. Its essence is the privatization of currency issuance or the non nationalization of currency. Hayek, a famous Austrian economist and Nobel laureate, put forward a proposal many years ago, and Friedman, a famous American economist, also made a similar proposal. However, their opinions are only a theoretical analysis tool, which is difficult to operate in real economic life, and the modern economy is increasingly inseparable from the country's macro-control. This financial crisis and its response is a good proof. Money is one of the main means of national macro-control and the basis of modern state and government. How can it be privatized? So I use the word "Utopia."“ In my opinion, technology can not replace the national attribute. Any digital currency can only be the realization form of standard currency. Therefore, electronic money will develop, and virtual money is utopia. " Sheng Songcheng said, "as long as there is a modern state, virtual currency will not be a currency. Many people ignore the national and social attributes behind money and think that money is just a natural entity. "as for the future development prospects of bitcoin, a commercial bank analyst interviewed said: "bitcoin trading, as a commodity trading behavior on the Internet, ordinary people have the freedom to participate in it at their own risk, and there is still a lot of room for development in this aspect. At present, in view of the fact that bitcoin has not had any impact on the monetary policy of central banks, and from the perspective of issuing technology, it seems to have enlightenment, so many central banks hold a wait-and-see attitude towards it. "
but as for whether bitcoin can play the role of currency in the future, or even international currency, the analyst said that it is "not optimistic". He said, "even if some countries want to use bitcoin as the world settlement currency, but it is in private hands, and the price fluctuates violently, can it become an international currency? Moreover, the important premise for it to become an international currency is that the authorities of all countries recognize its monetary nature, which itself is a difficult problem. "
Sheng Songcheng also said, "bitcoin does not have a value base; The price fluctuates sharply; There are three basic reasons why bitcoin can't become a world currency without the support of national monetary authorities. "in the first stage, blockchain is still a kind of network infrastructure construction. Enterprises providing high-quality technical services can charge technical service fees, and can also use this technology in some anti-counterfeiting systems such as Maotai liquor and luxury goods
in the second stage, the application segment will be implemented. At present, many scenarios such as storage, game operation, user payment, currency issuance and investment fund can also be realized through blockchain. However, this part of the profit belongs to the application publisher, just as an online game manufacturer uses C + + to write a game. C + + is blockchain technology, but it is the manufacturer who makes money, However, in the short term, large-scale application is still difficult
in the third stage, monetization, securitization and life-oriented are fairly recognized. Considering that the essence of currency issuing right is monopolized by the state violent machine, the property owner of seigniorage must belong to the government department, and the blockchain of currency and securities must go through a process of public power to understand, accept and allow. But it the first mock exam that this technology will also have far-reaching impact on the digitalization of money, and the profit margin under this mode is limitless.