American election and virtual currency
Publish: 2021-05-23 21:39:45
1.
As for bitcoin's sharp rise and breaking the $48000 mark, I believe no one will expect that. What are the reasons for bitcoin's sharp rise? Will bitcoin continue to soar in the future? With these questions, let's analyze this problem. Here are my personal thoughts and opinions, for your reference and discussion only
the above has explained various factors of bitcoin soaring, but none of these factors is under our personal control, and when you invest, you can't guarantee that you can bear the loss, so when you choose to invest in bitcoin, you are doomed to pay for your decision, The world is so big and there are so many procts to invest in. Why choose bitcoin with such high risk? The above is my personal views and ideas, for reference only
2. Because he thinks that what he is doing is more popular than bitcoin speculation
3.
The result of the US election will not have much impact on the RMB
No matter who is elected president of the United States, he will devote his economic policy to safeguarding his own interests, so the new US government is unlikely to have much impact on the capital market. China's economy is in the process of transformation, upgrading and opening up, and the economy going out of L-shape will support the long-term strength of RMBe to the early release of the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate increase in December, the US dollar index is hovering at a high level, and there is great uncertainty in the future. The future trend of RMB is mainly determined by internal factors, so the results of the US election will not have much impact on RMB
China's CPI in July 2006 only increased by 1% over the same period of the previous year, while the overall consumer price in the United States increased by about 4.1% over the same period of the previous year. The difference in price increases between China and the United States in July was 3.1 percentage points, roughly the same as the 3.3% increase in RMB since 2006 In May 2006, the yield of one-year US dollar bonds on the London market was 5.7%, while the yield of one-year bonds issued by the people's Bank of China was only 2.6%, and the difference between the two was just 3.1%as of July 2016, the appreciation rate of RMB against US dollar in the past year is 3.28%, which is roughly the same as the above yield difference! The reason why investors in RMB assets are willing to accept a lower rate of return is that they expect the appreciation of RMB to be slightly more than 3%
as long as investors continue to expect RMB to appreciate at this rate every year, according to the above monetary policy rule of keeping China's inflation rate lower than that of the United States, the interest rate gap between RMB and the US dollar will remain at about 3%
4. It is generally believed that the democratic government will support a strong US dollar policy, so when Obama is elected, the US dollar exchange rate will rise
the Democratic Party will emphasize taking care of the interests of the middle and low class, such as employment, while their position is that the low RMB exchange rate will lead to a large Sino US trade surplus, which will rece the competitiveness of American enterprises, rece employment, and require RMB appreciation
the Democratic Party will emphasize taking care of the interests of the middle and low class, such as employment, while their position is that the low RMB exchange rate will lead to a large Sino US trade surplus, which will rece the competitiveness of American enterprises, rece employment, and require RMB appreciation
5. At present, the US dollar will further raise interest rates, and the risk of RMB devaluation is relatively large.
6. In short, QE is an additional issue of US dollars. Assuming other factors remain unchanged, the additional issuance of US dollars will lead to the devaluation of US dollars. So RMB appreciation, commodity rise. Because of the issuance of additional US dollars, the domestic currency of the United States is abundant, and banks are competing to lower interest rates and compete for customers, resulting in the decline of interest rates in the United States. If the interest rate falls, the bond price will rise. This is because the higher interest rate before using QE can bring more income. The abundant domestic currency in the United States led to the rise of the U.S. stock market
quitting QE is the reverse
the following information can be used for reference: however, I feel too troublesome to read< Impact and effect analysis
September 27, 2012 11:05 source: ft Chinese [font: large, medium and small]
2. Impact and effect analysis
the United States is the world's largest economy and a major international issuing country. Qe3 is a policy measure that may have a significant impact on the United States and the global economy. However, the function of an economic policy depends on the specific and effective transmission mechanism and follows the internal economic law, and the functional effect does not completely depend on the subjective goal and intention of policy makers. The impact and effect of qe3 should be analyzed and speculated by combining the common sense of economic theory with the specific situation of the United States and the global economy. Generally speaking, quantitative easing policy attempts to achieve policy objectives by increasing liquidity. Firstly, we briefly explain the general mechanism of the policy and the concept of liquidity, and then speculate and analyze its role from both domestic and external aspects of the United States< The basic connotation of QE refers to that the central bank directly changes the market liquidity state by purchasing institutional financial assets through entering the market, which goes beyond the limit of the usual means of using interest rate price and open market operation to adjust the monetary tightening state. The first QE1 occurred under the severe background of the financial crisis. By stripping off the bad debts on the balance sheets of large financial institutions, the U.S. financial system avoided the prospect of comprehensive restructuring or even collapse. But QE2 and the latest qe3 are no longer emergency aid, but to achieve the goal of recing unemployment and boosting the economy. The goal of the current policy is to increase liquidity, while the real goal is to maintain growth and promote employment
according to the definition of bis special report, liquidity refers to "ease of financing" or "ease of converting specific assets into general means of payment". Liquidity can be divided into two basic parts. One is official liquidity, which is mainly realized by the central bank adjusting its own balance sheet to create a monetary base. All kinds of open market operations have the meaning of changing official liquidity. Foreign exchange reserves and SDR provide official liquidity in balance of payments, and the domestic liquidity of international currency issuing countries can be directly converted into international liquidity. The second is private liquidity, in which private financial institutions and enterprises participate in the process of broad money creation. The willingness and behavior of private institutions to leverage and deleverage directly determine the creation and rection of private liquidity
the discussion of the above brief definition is of cognitive significance for the analysis of qe3. Similar to the mechanism of creating broad money by the interaction of three basic roles in modern banking system, the state of liquidity depends on the interaction between official policies and the expectations and behaviors of other market players. Given the general state of the market, the central bank's initiative to expand the balance sheet will undoubtedly expand social liquidity. On the other hand, given the relevant policy stance of the central bank, the private sector's judgment of future risk and profit expectation and its choice of leverage degree, as well as the economic fundamentals that determine the state of the private sector, will also restrict and affect the effect of the official liquidity policy stance. In addition, different from ordinary countries, as a major international currency country, the domestic liquidity status of the United States is easy to affect the global economy through various arbitrage transactions<
2-2. Qe3 has a limited effect on the US economy
the direct effect of qe3 of the Federal Reserve or OMT of the European Central Bank is to increase the official liquidity of the US and Europe, specifically to increase the base currency. The figure below reports the liquidity profile of the major currency issuing countries, which shows that the base currencies of these countries have experienced several large surges in recent years, which are obviously related to the impact of the quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A new round of qe3 will operate at the rate of purchasing $40 billion MBS per month in the future, which is expected to bring about $500 billion expansion effect on the liquidity measured by the base currency every year
the figure above also shows that as a liquidity indicator which has a more direct relationship with aggregate demand and the overall macroeconomic situation, the growth rate of broad money is not as fast as that of base money in recent years, and the growth time of the two is not consistent. It is mainly affected by the variability of private sector responsiveness. On the whole, broad money has not expanded in proportion to the base money. The reason is that the US business sector is worried about the deep structure of the US economy, coupled with the lack of a wide range of investment growth points with good profit opportunities, and the willingness and ability to lend are restricted by many factors, such as the sharp drop in the statistical value of money multiplier and the relatively weak expansion of broad money liquidity
the above observations suggest that a basic criterion for evaluating monetary policy, including qe3, is that good economic growth cannot be without good money supply support. However, blindly loosening money is not a panacea to solve all the problems faced by economic growth. After the U.S. crisis, the practice of macro policy shows that the exogenous expansion of reserve currency can not lead to the synchronous growth of broad money expansion, and the part of liquidity that can be controlled by policy can not change the endogeneity of broad money expansion. A new round of qe3 may still face the above difficulties, and hope that it will soon boost the economy may fail again
specifically, qe3 operates on mortgage-backed bonds (MBS), and the Federal Reserve hopes to have a positive impact on the housing market in the short term. Qe3 can indeed improve the liquidity of the mortgage-backed bond market in the short term. Considering the signs of stabilization in the US real estate market since the second half of last year, qe3 may play a positive role in pushing the real estate market out of the trough. However, the fundamental reason for the downturn of real estate in the United States for many years lies in people's lack of confidence and weak demand in the economic crisis environment. Although the policy can improve the financing conditions and profitability of real estate enterprises, it may not be able to reverse the downturn of market demand< Whether it can significantly boost the employment recovery remains to be discussed. Since the crisis, the United States has continued to implement zero interest rate easing monetary policy and two rounds of quantitative easing policy, but the unemployment rate is still above 8%. From the comparison of the average unemployment rate in the recovery process of ten crises in the United States since World War II to this crisis, the unemployment rate in this crisis is significantly higher than the average level of previous crisis recovery, reflecting that the U.S. economy is facing structural problems and atypical cyclical problems. Since the financial crisis, the cash reserves of American commercial banks have increased significantly, but the credit has not increased significantly. This fact shows that the fundamental problem of the United States is not the lack of liquidity, but the need to adapt to the contemporary new open environment through arous reform and adjustment. Qe3 more shows the urgency of the Federal Reserve's "always do something" mentality, and also expresses the psychological intention of the United States to resort to macro stimulus policies to satisfy voters before the election< The United States is the world's largest economy and a major international currency issuing country. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy will obviously have a spillover effect on the global economy. This can be understood from two aspects. First, if qe3 has a stimulating effect on the US economy, it will objectively have a positive effect on the short-term growth of the global economy. Due to the reasons discussed above, we think that the positive effect in this respect will be weak or not significant enough. Second, under the background that the liquidity of US dollar is increasing and it is difficult for us real economy to fully absorb it, US dollar will flow out of the us through various arbitrage trading channels, which will have many disturbing effects on the global economy
one is to boost the price of physical assets. It has the most direct and quick impact on the capital market. After the announcement of qe3 policy, European and American stock markets responded quickly. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 closed up nearly 1.6% on the same day. European stock markets rose sharply on Friday, with the stoxx50 index up 1.92%, CAC40 index up 1.74%, DAX index up 1.54% and ibex35 index up 2.29%. In addition, it will boost the prices of energy, minerals, grains and other commodities in the future. Although there are many factors affecting commodity prices, the fluctuation of money supply of US dollar, as an important settlement currency of commodities, also constitutes an important factor of commodity price fluctuation. Combined with relevant data observation, the dollar index has a significant negative relationship with Brent and West Texas light crude oil price data. For example, from May 1985 to may 2011, the negative correlation coefficient between the crude oil price index and the dollar index is as high as -0.71. The potential implication is that economic policies that affect the dollar index may have spillover effects on commodities. Qe3 is expected to have a similar impact as the previous two QE operations pushed the US dollar index weaker and commodity prices higher
Second, it intensifies the cross-border flow of speculative capital and has a disturbing effect. IMF 2007 world economic outlook reports global liquidity indicators, using the sum of the base currencies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada as the observation index and measuring its changes. The data shows that the liquidity indicators of the five developed countries and regions are one year ahead of schele, showing a significant similar trend with the funds flowing to emerging markets, indicating that the currency scaling of the five developed countries, including the United States, will lead to the expansion of cross-border capital flows in emerging markets. There have long been doubts in the international community about this negative impact. Qe3 is expected to continue to have this effect
it is also necessary to point out that the external influence of the US policy of volume and width also depends on the global economic environment and the characteristics of the macroeconomic environment of the capital inflow countries to a considerable extent. For example, the obvious environment of macroeconomic imbalance and asset bubbles in inflows will lead to a greater degree of inflow of external hot money inflows and exacerbate domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. In addition, if the real exchange rate of a country is undervalued and imbalanced and the pressure of foreign capital inflow is obvious, excess external liquidity will lead to greater pressure of capital inflow. With the rapid expansion of global economy and the rapid growth of real demand for commodities, the boosting effect of US dollar expansion on commodity prices is more obvious. The current global macroeconomic situation is significantly different from that before the 2007-2006 crisis, and the impact of qe3 policy will also be significantly different<
3. Impact on China and Countermeasures
China's economy is currently in the adjustment stage of falling growth rate. On the one hand, the urgency of macroeconomic policy to stabilize growth is increasing; on the other hand, the necessity of economic adjustment is highlighted. In this environment, we believe that the qe3 policy has both advantages and disadvantages on China's economy, but on the whole, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. In this process, we should understand the long-term law and grasp the commanding point and strategic initiative in the field of global opening-up macroeconomic coordination
the objective favorable effect is mainly reflected in the positive effect of short-term external demand. As an extraordinary stimulus policy, qe3 has marginal effect after several rounds of implementation
quitting QE is the reverse
the following information can be used for reference: however, I feel too troublesome to read< Impact and effect analysis
September 27, 2012 11:05 source: ft Chinese [font: large, medium and small]
2. Impact and effect analysis
the United States is the world's largest economy and a major international issuing country. Qe3 is a policy measure that may have a significant impact on the United States and the global economy. However, the function of an economic policy depends on the specific and effective transmission mechanism and follows the internal economic law, and the functional effect does not completely depend on the subjective goal and intention of policy makers. The impact and effect of qe3 should be analyzed and speculated by combining the common sense of economic theory with the specific situation of the United States and the global economy. Generally speaking, quantitative easing policy attempts to achieve policy objectives by increasing liquidity. Firstly, we briefly explain the general mechanism of the policy and the concept of liquidity, and then speculate and analyze its role from both domestic and external aspects of the United States< The basic connotation of QE refers to that the central bank directly changes the market liquidity state by purchasing institutional financial assets through entering the market, which goes beyond the limit of the usual means of using interest rate price and open market operation to adjust the monetary tightening state. The first QE1 occurred under the severe background of the financial crisis. By stripping off the bad debts on the balance sheets of large financial institutions, the U.S. financial system avoided the prospect of comprehensive restructuring or even collapse. But QE2 and the latest qe3 are no longer emergency aid, but to achieve the goal of recing unemployment and boosting the economy. The goal of the current policy is to increase liquidity, while the real goal is to maintain growth and promote employment
according to the definition of bis special report, liquidity refers to "ease of financing" or "ease of converting specific assets into general means of payment". Liquidity can be divided into two basic parts. One is official liquidity, which is mainly realized by the central bank adjusting its own balance sheet to create a monetary base. All kinds of open market operations have the meaning of changing official liquidity. Foreign exchange reserves and SDR provide official liquidity in balance of payments, and the domestic liquidity of international currency issuing countries can be directly converted into international liquidity. The second is private liquidity, in which private financial institutions and enterprises participate in the process of broad money creation. The willingness and behavior of private institutions to leverage and deleverage directly determine the creation and rection of private liquidity
the discussion of the above brief definition is of cognitive significance for the analysis of qe3. Similar to the mechanism of creating broad money by the interaction of three basic roles in modern banking system, the state of liquidity depends on the interaction between official policies and the expectations and behaviors of other market players. Given the general state of the market, the central bank's initiative to expand the balance sheet will undoubtedly expand social liquidity. On the other hand, given the relevant policy stance of the central bank, the private sector's judgment of future risk and profit expectation and its choice of leverage degree, as well as the economic fundamentals that determine the state of the private sector, will also restrict and affect the effect of the official liquidity policy stance. In addition, different from ordinary countries, as a major international currency country, the domestic liquidity status of the United States is easy to affect the global economy through various arbitrage transactions<
2-2. Qe3 has a limited effect on the US economy
the direct effect of qe3 of the Federal Reserve or OMT of the European Central Bank is to increase the official liquidity of the US and Europe, specifically to increase the base currency. The figure below reports the liquidity profile of the major currency issuing countries, which shows that the base currencies of these countries have experienced several large surges in recent years, which are obviously related to the impact of the quantitative easing policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. A new round of qe3 will operate at the rate of purchasing $40 billion MBS per month in the future, which is expected to bring about $500 billion expansion effect on the liquidity measured by the base currency every year
the figure above also shows that as a liquidity indicator which has a more direct relationship with aggregate demand and the overall macroeconomic situation, the growth rate of broad money is not as fast as that of base money in recent years, and the growth time of the two is not consistent. It is mainly affected by the variability of private sector responsiveness. On the whole, broad money has not expanded in proportion to the base money. The reason is that the US business sector is worried about the deep structure of the US economy, coupled with the lack of a wide range of investment growth points with good profit opportunities, and the willingness and ability to lend are restricted by many factors, such as the sharp drop in the statistical value of money multiplier and the relatively weak expansion of broad money liquidity
the above observations suggest that a basic criterion for evaluating monetary policy, including qe3, is that good economic growth cannot be without good money supply support. However, blindly loosening money is not a panacea to solve all the problems faced by economic growth. After the U.S. crisis, the practice of macro policy shows that the exogenous expansion of reserve currency can not lead to the synchronous growth of broad money expansion, and the part of liquidity that can be controlled by policy can not change the endogeneity of broad money expansion. A new round of qe3 may still face the above difficulties, and hope that it will soon boost the economy may fail again
specifically, qe3 operates on mortgage-backed bonds (MBS), and the Federal Reserve hopes to have a positive impact on the housing market in the short term. Qe3 can indeed improve the liquidity of the mortgage-backed bond market in the short term. Considering the signs of stabilization in the US real estate market since the second half of last year, qe3 may play a positive role in pushing the real estate market out of the trough. However, the fundamental reason for the downturn of real estate in the United States for many years lies in people's lack of confidence and weak demand in the economic crisis environment. Although the policy can improve the financing conditions and profitability of real estate enterprises, it may not be able to reverse the downturn of market demand< Whether it can significantly boost the employment recovery remains to be discussed. Since the crisis, the United States has continued to implement zero interest rate easing monetary policy and two rounds of quantitative easing policy, but the unemployment rate is still above 8%. From the comparison of the average unemployment rate in the recovery process of ten crises in the United States since World War II to this crisis, the unemployment rate in this crisis is significantly higher than the average level of previous crisis recovery, reflecting that the U.S. economy is facing structural problems and atypical cyclical problems. Since the financial crisis, the cash reserves of American commercial banks have increased significantly, but the credit has not increased significantly. This fact shows that the fundamental problem of the United States is not the lack of liquidity, but the need to adapt to the contemporary new open environment through arous reform and adjustment. Qe3 more shows the urgency of the Federal Reserve's "always do something" mentality, and also expresses the psychological intention of the United States to resort to macro stimulus policies to satisfy voters before the election< The United States is the world's largest economy and a major international currency issuing country. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policy will obviously have a spillover effect on the global economy. This can be understood from two aspects. First, if qe3 has a stimulating effect on the US economy, it will objectively have a positive effect on the short-term growth of the global economy. Due to the reasons discussed above, we think that the positive effect in this respect will be weak or not significant enough. Second, under the background that the liquidity of US dollar is increasing and it is difficult for us real economy to fully absorb it, US dollar will flow out of the us through various arbitrage trading channels, which will have many disturbing effects on the global economy
one is to boost the price of physical assets. It has the most direct and quick impact on the capital market. After the announcement of qe3 policy, European and American stock markets responded quickly. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 closed up nearly 1.6% on the same day. European stock markets rose sharply on Friday, with the stoxx50 index up 1.92%, CAC40 index up 1.74%, DAX index up 1.54% and ibex35 index up 2.29%. In addition, it will boost the prices of energy, minerals, grains and other commodities in the future. Although there are many factors affecting commodity prices, the fluctuation of money supply of US dollar, as an important settlement currency of commodities, also constitutes an important factor of commodity price fluctuation. Combined with relevant data observation, the dollar index has a significant negative relationship with Brent and West Texas light crude oil price data. For example, from May 1985 to may 2011, the negative correlation coefficient between the crude oil price index and the dollar index is as high as -0.71. The potential implication is that economic policies that affect the dollar index may have spillover effects on commodities. Qe3 is expected to have a similar impact as the previous two QE operations pushed the US dollar index weaker and commodity prices higher
Second, it intensifies the cross-border flow of speculative capital and has a disturbing effect. IMF 2007 world economic outlook reports global liquidity indicators, using the sum of the base currencies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada as the observation index and measuring its changes. The data shows that the liquidity indicators of the five developed countries and regions are one year ahead of schele, showing a significant similar trend with the funds flowing to emerging markets, indicating that the currency scaling of the five developed countries, including the United States, will lead to the expansion of cross-border capital flows in emerging markets. There have long been doubts in the international community about this negative impact. Qe3 is expected to continue to have this effect
it is also necessary to point out that the external influence of the US policy of volume and width also depends on the global economic environment and the characteristics of the macroeconomic environment of the capital inflow countries to a considerable extent. For example, the obvious environment of macroeconomic imbalance and asset bubbles in inflows will lead to a greater degree of inflow of external hot money inflows and exacerbate domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. In addition, if the real exchange rate of a country is undervalued and imbalanced and the pressure of foreign capital inflow is obvious, excess external liquidity will lead to greater pressure of capital inflow. With the rapid expansion of global economy and the rapid growth of real demand for commodities, the boosting effect of US dollar expansion on commodity prices is more obvious. The current global macroeconomic situation is significantly different from that before the 2007-2006 crisis, and the impact of qe3 policy will also be significantly different<
3. Impact on China and Countermeasures
China's economy is currently in the adjustment stage of falling growth rate. On the one hand, the urgency of macroeconomic policy to stabilize growth is increasing; on the other hand, the necessity of economic adjustment is highlighted. In this environment, we believe that the qe3 policy has both advantages and disadvantages on China's economy, but on the whole, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. In this process, we should understand the long-term law and grasp the commanding point and strategic initiative in the field of global opening-up macroeconomic coordination
the objective favorable effect is mainly reflected in the positive effect of short-term external demand. As an extraordinary stimulus policy, qe3 has marginal effect after several rounds of implementation
7.
The designated place of Australia study visa physical examination needs to check the physical examination form given to students by the embassy
after the application materials are approved by the embassy, the embassy will send the students a physical examination letter and a physical examination form, and the students will take the letter to the hospital or medical center designated by the embassy for physical examination
the name, address and contact number of the physical examination hospitals in each city are detailed in the physical examination form issued by the embassy
extended data:
precautions:
1. Only the physical examination report issued by the designated hospital or medical center is valid visa material
If there is no designated hospital in the area where the applicant lives, the applicant can go to the designated clinic in Beijing, Guangzhou or Shanghai for physical examination The physical examination items of studying abroad usually include blood pressure, heartbeat, vision, hearing, urine test, blood test, chest X-ray examination and other routine physical examinationif applicants are communicable diseases, especially those with lung, AIDS and liver diseases, they will not be allowed to enter the country. Among them, the patients with hepatitis B and small Sanyang mistress will not be affected. p>
8. 13906625051 Zhejiang B vehicle
9. Unknown_Error
10. Ningbo passenger transport center has a bus to Taizhou every day, 10:45 am, ticket price 161 yuan
15012 Ningbo China Taizhou Taizhou direct to Taizhou 10:45 air two 161.00
15012 Ningbo China Taizhou Taizhou direct to Taizhou 10:45 air two 161.00
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