Investment behavior of virtual currency

4.

The investment risk of virtual currency is high, and the transaction of virtual currency has been banned in China

strengthen the management of token financing trading platform according to Article 3 of the notice on preventing the financing risk of token issuance. From the date of this announcement, any so-called token financing trading platform shall not engage in the exchange business between legal tender and token and "virtual currency", nor buy or sell token or "virtual currency" as a central counterpart, nor provide pricing, information intermediary and other services for token or "virtual currency"

for the token financing trading platform with illegal problems, the financial management department will request the competent department of telecommunications to close its website platform and mobile app according to law, request the network information department to remove the mobile app from the app store, and request the instrial and commercial administration department to revoke its business license according to law

Article 4 financial institutions and non bank payment institutions shall not carry out business related to token issuance financing transactions. All financial institutions and non bank payment institutions shall not directly or indirectly provide procts or services such as account opening, registration, trading, clearing and settlement for token issuance and financing and "virtual currency", nor undertake insurance business related to token and "virtual currency" or include token and "virtual currency" into the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions and non bank payment institutions shall report to the relevant departments in a timely manner if they find clues of violation of laws and regulations in token issuance financing transactions

extended materials:

"notice on preventing the financing risk of token issuance" Article 1 accurately understand the essential attribute of token issuance financing activities. Token issuance financing refers to the financing subject raising bitcoin, ether coin and other so-called "virtual currency" from investors through the illegal sale and circulation of token, In essence, it is a kind of unauthorized illegal public financing, which is suspected of illegal sale of token tickets, illegal issuance of securities, illegal fund-raising, financial fraud, pyramid selling and other illegal and criminal activities

Relevant departments will closely monitor relevant developments, strengthen cooperation with judicial departments and local governments, strictly enforce the law in accordance with the current working mechanism, and resolutely deal with market chaos. If suspected crimes are found, they will be transferred to judicial organs. The token or "virtual currency" used in token issuance financing is not issued by the monetary authority, does not have such monetary attributes as legal compensation and compulsion, does not have the same legal status as currency, and cannot and should not be used as currency in the market

5.

1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions

In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:

(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information

However,
however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency

(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear

as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control

(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP

The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention

(2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:

(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market

(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more

(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger

(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency

(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system

(3) stability risk of payment system

in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities

(5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation

(6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term

virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />

6.

Background: the financial application of blockchain technology brings high investment value

2018 China international big data instry Expo opened in Guiyang City, Guizhou Province on the 26th. At the meeting, it was pointed out that China will vigorously develop the digital economy in the future, deeply implement the action plan for the development of big data and cloud computing, and deeply study blockchain technology and application. Especially in the field of finance, the landing application has become the focus of the scientific and financial circles

1. The value source of blockchain is that it can perfectly solve the pain points of the current financial instry:

in today's asset securitization, insurance, supply chain finance, commodity trading, asset custody and other financial scenarios, e to many participants, high cost of credit evaluation, low settlement efficiency of intermediary institutions and other reasons, Traditional financial service methods are difficult to effectively solve the long-standing core pain points in the instry, such as information asymmetry, complex and rendant processes, and high information verification cost

2. Why can blockchain solve the above pain points:

blockchain technology integrates many basic technologies, such as distributed accounting, tamper proof, built-in contract, etc., and constructs a trust building mechanism with lower cost. The financial application based on blockchain technology can realize the ability of all market participants to obtain all transaction information and asset ownership records in the market without discrimination, and effectively solve the problem of information asymmetry; Smart contract embedding reces the error rate of payment and settlement, simplifies the process and improves efficiency; At the same time, based on transparent information and brand-new trust mechanism, there is no need to spend manpower, material resources and financial resources to confirm information among participants, which will greatly rece the trust cost between institutions, and then rece the price of financial services and transaction costs

3. The application of blockchain technology in the financial field mainly includes the following aspects:

① digital currency

among which bitcoin is the most famous. On the basis of bitcoin, a large number of other types of decentralized digital currencies have been derived. Such as: the heyday of bits

Compared with the traditional payment system, blockchain payment can directly carry out end-to-end payment for both parties without the help of the banking system, which can greatly improve the speed and rece the cost

③ digital bills

④ bank credit management: the advantage of blockchain is that it can rely on program algorithm to automatically record credit related information and store it on every computer in the blockchain network, with transparent information, tamper proof and low cost

The major financial institutions and exchanges in Europe and the United States have explored the application research of building the next generation of financial asset trading platform based on blockchain technology

4. The development prospect of blockchain. The future development of blockchain technology will have the most vitality with alliance chain as the entry point, and will have a significant effect and far-reaching impact on the transformation of traditional financial instry pain points

in response to the good investment prospects of blockchain, domestic enterprises such as Alibaba, Jingdong and Netcom have entered the market. The application of financial scenarios based on blockchain technology not only brings us security and convenience, but also provides us with broader investment space. The rise and price surge of digital currency represented by bitcoin (bitcoin was about RMB 20 cents when it was first listed in 2009, and its current price is about US $7300!) It's the best proof that people with a keen sense of smell have made a lot of money from it

Abstract: This is an encrypted digital currency based on the bitcoin developed by Nakamoto Tsung, which improves and adds many new functions, such as the double-layer reward system network, also known as the main node network. It also includes anonymous payment to improve the interchangeability (bitage) and real-time payment function docking to realize real-time transaction confirmation without relying on the authority of the center (P2P mall)

In 2009, Nakamoto put forward the concept of bitcoin. Since then, bitcoin has spread rapidly in mainstream applications and commercial uses, becoming the first digital currency to attract a large number of users, which is a milestone in the history of digital currency. However, from the perspective of completing the transaction, we can find an important problem, that is, it takes too long for bitcoin block to confirm the transaction. Traditional payment companies have found a solution to enable the buyer and the seller to realize zero confirmation of bitcoin transaction, but this solution usually requires a trusted third party to complete the transaction outside the agreement

bitcoin provides pseudonym transaction, realizes the one-to-one transaction relationship between sender and receiver, and can always record the transactions occurred in the whole network. Bitcoin only provides low-level privacy protection, which is well known in academia. Despite this deficiency, many people still believe in the transfer history recorded by blockchain

based on Nakamoto's achievements, bitshengshi is an encrypted digital currency with the purpose of protecting privacy. We have made a series of improvements on the basis of the concept of bitcoin, resulting in a decentralized cryptocurrency with good anonymity. It supports tamper proof real-time transactions, and has a point-to-point sub network that can provide service reward system for bitsheng network

2. Master node network

the whole node is the server running on the P2P network, so that small nodes can use them to accept the dynamic changes from the whole network. These all nodes need significant traffic and other resources that consume a lot of cost. Therefore, it will be observed that the number of these nodes on the bitcoin network presents a steady downward trend over a period of time, so that the block broadcast time needs an additional 40 seconds. In order to solve this problem, many solutions have been put forward, such as the introction of Microsoft Research's new incentive plan and bitnodes incentive plan

Figure 6: Mining reward model