On the liquidity of virtual currency

Virtual currency is the currency used for electronic circulation. Now the scope of virtual currency is very large, including q-coin, bitcoin and so on. With the development of digital currency, virtual currency is becoming more and more abundant, which may become the mainstream in the future. For example, BTC, EOS, bcbot and so on are not only virtual currencies, but also algorithms, landing projects and technologies

virtual currency is mainly issued by online game service providers to purchase game props, such as equipment, clothing, etc. But at present, the use of virtual currency has gone far beyond this category. Virtual currency can be used to buy game cards, physical objects and download services of some movies and software

extended data:

real risk

as the proct of e-commerce, virtual currency has begun to play an increasingly important role, and it is more and more connected with the real world. However, with the growth of virtual currency, the relevant laws and regulations are lagging behind, which has laid many hidden dangers

fraud

the private transaction of online virtual currency has realized the two-way circulation between virtual currency and RMB to a certain extent. The activity of these traders is to buy all kinds of virtual currencies and procts at a low price, and then sell them at a high price to earn profits. With the increase of such transactions, there are even virtual mints. In addition to the virtual currency provided by the main company, there are also some people who specialize in "virtual coin making" to obtain virtual currency by playing games and then resell it to other players

Taking Wenzhou as an example, there are about seven or eight such "virtual mints" with four or five hundred practitioners. This not only creates a bubble for the price of the virtual currency itself, but also causes trouble for the normal sale of the issuing company. It also provides a platform for selling and collecting money and money laundering for various cyber crimes. p>

impact system

in modern financial system, the issuers of money are generally central banks, which are responsible for the management and supervision of money operation. As the equivalent exchange goods used to replace the real currency circulation on the Internet, the virtual currency on the Internet is essentially the same as the real currency. The difference is that the issuers are no longer central banks, but Internet companies

if the development of virtual currency makes it form a unified market, each company can exchange with each other, or virtual currency is integrated and unified, and all of them are based on the same standard and price, then in a sense, virtual currency is currency, which is likely to form a threat impact on the traditional financial system or economic operation

reference: network virtual currency

1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions

(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information

(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear

as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control

(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP

(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market

(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger

(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency

(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system

in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />

It is difficult to avoid the typical risks related to the payment system. In a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing the typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks largely depend on the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity. It is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of important payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause or transmit shocks to the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and there is no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. In the network virtual currency scheme, network currency is not the settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default. The security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is easily used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect consumers' rights and interests and financial stability, and restrain the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities. At present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities

unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, bitcoin market is not deep enough, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' trading behavior and controlled by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin. Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude. Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on its price, especially in the short term

There is no definition and distinction between game currency and stock, derivative financial instruments, especially electronic currency. In fact, there is an internal thread that can run through these different forms of virtual currency, which is the performance maturity of personalized value. We can summarize it logically as follows:
Bank e-money
Bank e-money was initially a kind of "pseudo virtual money". It only has the form of virtual currency, such as digitization and symbolization, but it does not have the essence of virtual currency and has nothing to do with personalization. For example, it is just the counterpart of paper money; It may be issued by the central bank; It may be in the same market as the money market. However, bank e-money has broken through the extension of money, that is, it can also be issued not by the central bank, but by information service providers, as was the case with several early e-money. The second breakthrough is the liquidity of bank e-money, which far exceeds that of ordinary money. Therefore, it implies a challenge to the pricing power of currency price level. For example, in overnight lending, if the same money is turned over several times in the form of electronic money, although from the traditional monetary point of view, nothing has happened, but from the perspective of virtual money circulation speed, it has actually changed the conditions of money price level
credit information currency
stock is the most typical credit information currency. Its essence is virtual and it is a kind of virtual currency with personalized characteristics. It is the most realistic foundation of the current virtual economy. Stock market and derivative financial instrument market constitute a large-scale and unified virtual money market. They are not only based on entity business, but also supported by a wide range of information services such as trust business and insurance business. The so-called unified market refers to that the market as a whole can be exchanged with the money market at the overall level of national income. Historically, only when money forms a unified market, that is, the main body of the national economy is monetized, can the adjustment of money quantity and interest rate on the national economy be discussed. The same is true for the virtual economy. This issue is not without dispute. Although the scale of the virtual economy is several times larger than that of the real economy, a large part of the real economy has not entered the unified market. If the game currency is compared with stocks, its progress in this respect is far from satisfactory. Only through the two stages of entertainment instrialization and instrial entertainment, it is possible to reach the level of unified market
analyzing the stock market and derivative financial instrument market, the biggest difference between the stock market and the general money market is that its circulation speed cannot be directly determined by the central bank. For example, as a virtual currency, the price level of stock index can not be directly determined by the central bank like the interest rate, but by the so-called "confidence" of people. The fundamentals of the central bank and the real capital market can only indirectly determine the stock market, not directly. So I think the stock market is an information market, not a money market
compared with the mature virtual money market, the main characteristics of the stock market are incomplete. The stock market integrates the noise at all reference points (i.e. indivial gain and loss values) into a unified reference value, which is combined with the standard value (utility value on the basis and general equilibrium value) to form the continuous fluctuation of the market around the utility value. Although it is different from the money market with the central bank as the center for orderly centripetal movement, it is not different from the money market. From the point of view of the real virtual money market, the characteristic of this market is the incommensurable personalized fixed value. In this sense, the centralized stock market has not achieved this function, and the independent role of the stock market as the so-called "casino" has not been played. Thirdly,
the fundamental function of personalized credit voucher
virtual currency is to synthesize value on the spot of personality, rather than to determine a rational value in isolation at an equilibrium point separated from the real world. The significance of virtual currency is to establish a value system centered on the final consumer. After the full realization of virtual currency, the single currency with general equivalent function will tend to be backward. Game currency is the experimental field of virtual currency at a higher stage, and it is difficult to be a major task. The ideal virtual currency is the value symbol of the real world. In the general equivalent exchange, the specific use value and the corresponding subject of the specific use value, namely the non-homogeneous needs and personalized needs of people, are completely filtered out. Virtual currency will change all this, through the virtual way, people's heterogeneous needs and personalized needs will be anchored to the fundamentals by indivial reference point, and the value will be synthesized. Therefore, virtual currency must have two sides, one is to have the function of commodity exchange, the other is to have the function of barter. Through the former to overcome the relativity and subjectivity of value, through the latter to achieve personalized value confirmation. In order to achieve this goal, virtual currency must realize a huge transformation, which is to transform to dialogue system and become interactive currency. The bargaining here is aimed at the level of currency price. Recall that the transformation from text to dialogue, which has been realized for decades, is the direction of the transformation of virtual currency. The value of game currency is uncertain. When people exchange game currency, it is uncertain whether the ultimate happiness they may get is above or below the currency value until they participate in the game. The game is a dialogue process. Of course, various value-added functions of game currency have not been developed in combination with personalized information services. If this kind of value-added business is fully developed, game currency will not be used because of the different businesses providing services, which may become an advantage over stocks
a fully personalized virtual currency may be a kind of currency card with additional information, and its value is to be confirmed. Virtual currency with specific undetermined function and resial value, on the one hand, its information can have room for reinterpretation like text, on the other hand, it has the potential of karaoke like redevelopment. Its information value has an open interface and can be added again. If they are exchanged in the secondary market like the stock market, they may float up and down in the basic par value with their personalized information, and they will have more attractiveness like stocks. Game currency only has the function of value circulation, but not the function of market platform, so it is only an imperfect virtual currency. The reason is the lack of corresponding instrial base

First, personalized virtual currency will have information function in addition to liquidity and value-added
the biggest difference between personalized virtual currency and stock market is not only the integrated pricing function with reference points, but also the distributed pricing function with reference points. This process is not completed in the virtual money market, but in the development of personalized modern services. For example, in the process of indivial auction, the bargaining process combined with frame should include not only a process of utility exchange leading to value unification, but also a process of value realization leading to value diversification. This means that virtual currency must be combined with the development of personalized information service instry. Although the stock also has certain information function, but this kind of information is subordinate, it is instry centered
in the future, virtual currency can simultaneously perform three functions of currency, stock and information card: on the one hand, it can obtain liquidity as the base currency (or exchange with the base currency); On the one hand, it has value-added function; The most important thing is that it can also add information. And this kind of information is just a kind of interface information to be completed, which needs to continue to realize its value in the service instry
secondly, personalized virtual currency will have its own cultural value orientation
in the future personalized virtual currency trading market, price level information similar to today's stock index will also be formed. But different from stock index, personalized virtual currency price index will not reflect investment value-added information, but entertainment value, cultural value, spiritual value, freedom value and personality value similar to cool value. For example, the game index may not reflect its investment value, but the value of indivial freedom
for another example, in the super girl vote, it reflects the popularity index, not the professional index. If it is not SMS voting, but a personalized IC card integrated with currency and derivative financial instruments, such as corn card and fans card, the value of the card will fluctuate with the fashion information, reflecting the freedom of personal choice. Once it is combined with the development of personalized service instry, it will form a benign interaction mechanism
thirdly, personalized virtual money market will play a role in promoting traditional instries
with the development of game instrialization and instrial Gamification, indivial freedom has been comprehensively developed, that is, personalized self realization, which will become the ultimate goal of instrial upgrading. Traditional instries, including proct manufacturing and service instries, will take the satisfaction of spiritual and cultural values as the pursuit of added value of procts and services. In the context of the development of this instry, the role of personalized information service instry in driving traditional instries may be realized through the guidance of personalized virtual money market. In other words, after the procts and services of traditional instries have reached the optimal homogenization, they will eventually find out under the guidance of the information market that those things that are cool enough will sell well, and those that are not cool enough will not sell
the future instrial development will need not only GNP type stock index guidance, but also GNH type cool value index guidance. Japan, which has put forward GNC (National cool value), is moving towards such an instrial development mode, thus following the Meiji Restoration, moving towards the road of modern instrial development. The United States and South Korea have also come to the front in this regard. China is facing the choice of the second modernization. Many "little things" like virtual currency actually contain significant information