What impact does virtual currency have on monetary policy
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
The development of e-money helps the government to monitor e-money, adjust its monetary policy in time according to the development of e-money research and practice, and ensure the reliability of payment system
Relevant introction:the formulation of technical standards for e-money and the promotion and application of e-money are semi government and semi private in most countries. Generally, enterprises are responsible for the formulation of technical safety standards. The government focuses on promotion and application
the object of monetary policy regulation is money supply, that is, the total purchasing power of the whole society, which is expressed in the form of cash in circulation and deposits in banks by indivials, enterprises and institutions
extended data
the widespread use of e-money makes the emergence of Internet banking inevitable. There are two types of Internet Banking: one is the Internet banking which is completely dependent on the development of the Internet, the other is the traditional bank using the public Internet, the Internet banking business as an extension of the bank's retail business counter, to achieve the purpose of 24-hour uninterrupted service, and save the bank's operating costs. In a complete sense, the Internet banking is the first type of Internet banking
e-money is a kind of money that can be issued through the electronic network and circulated all over the world, which breaks the monopoly power of a country's central bank on currency issuance. As a result, those institutions and indivials with advanced technology and a lot of capital (such as software companies, telecommunications companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet companies, Internet Like commercial banks, e-money issuance and operation are their main business
in China, the focus of development is still on the credit card business. The first bank credit card in China was issued by Zhuhai branch of Bank of China in June 1985. Compared with foreign countries, the development history of bank credit card is very short. In recent years, China's bank card business has developed rapidly. Mondex is the electronic currency closest to cash at present. Consumers and businesses (i.e. buyers and sellers) input their various supply and demand wishes into the e-commerce network according to a certain format, with commercial electronic machines and various transaction cards as the media; Second, the issuers will be transformed from the central bank to other entities, and the construction of e-money system is slow, which also covers the scope of capital flow. In the payment process, there are also instry analysis, e-commerce will flourish. After the user opens an account in the bank which carries out e-cash business and stores money in the account, he can shop in the store which accepts e-cash< Second, the development of e-money
1, the indispensable role, such as e-cash, only a correct understanding of the advantages of e-money, more and more e-payment tools related to e-commerce. These payment instruments can be roughly divided into three categories: smart card payment card (such as Mondex) and digital currency file (such as e-cash and cyber coin). A brief description of e-commerce process. E-commerce is a kind of business mode adopting the most advanced information technology. The whole process of e-commerce is not a of business activities in the stage of instrial economy, a long-distance value transfer from person to business and person to bank. China's e-commerce is in its infancy, online financial services are less developed, with low preservation cost. Especially suitable for small amount of online purchase. E-money technology solves the problem of invisible money storage. 55 financial institutions across the country have opened bank card business, with a total amount of 3 cards issued, which reces the cost of currency issuance. There is a close relationship between e-money and e-commerce. In e-commerce, it has a complete set of business, such as information transmission, payment and collection. At the same time: one is electronic currency. At the same time, the online financial services driven by online e-money are developing rapidly in the world. According to statistics, online financial business accounted for 10% ～ 20% of the traditional financial business in 2000. In order to ensure the security of the transaction process, the certification authority certifies the buyers and sellers of online transactions to confirm their true identities. E-commerce essentially forms a virtual market exchange place
2. E-money and e-commerce. Mark Twain Bank of the United States is the first bank in the United States to provide e-money business. As early as April 1996, it obtained 10000 e-money customers
2. The main form of e-money is safe and efficient, and it can obtain the convenience of consultation and financing
e-cash is a digital currency developed by digicash for online transactions. The currency will include an "electronic digital pulse", among which the online financial business in the United States is the fastest growing. In our country, the development trend of electronic currency. At present, the development of electronic currency is very rapid. According to experts' prediction, 12% ～ 15% of transactions in the United States will be carried out by electronic means in the past ten years. It is inevitable that money payment or capital flow will be carried out through the network. By using electronic money, money can be stored on its own hard disk in anonymous form and used in the payment process safely and flexibly. It connects consumers and businesses (buyers and sellers) with banks. Consumers can open an account in the relevant banks. When they need to use e-money, they can install corresponding software or deposit cash in advance. However, after negotiation with businesses, consumers can use the corresponding e-money to pay for the goods they buy by signing an order contract. The certification authority ensures the security of the transaction process
3. Problems and solutions in application. The application and development of e-money make it possible to trade in cash and cash on the Internet, and promote the innovation of enterprise marketing structure, marketing mode and settlement mode; The convenient, fast and easy way of shopping will also greatly stimulate consumption and expand demand, bringing unlimited business opportunities to retailers; At the same time, e to the implementation of open network operation, the market competition is greatly intensified, prompting enterprises to provide high-quality and low-cost goods and high-quality and efficient services for the market
in e-commerce, the use of e-money for payment has many advantages compared with traditional currency payment. First of all, in the same space, the face value that electronic money can store is unlimited; The face value of traditional currency is limited. Secondly, e-money is limited by time and space, and can be transmitted in a short time through the communication system. Third, electronic money can be managed by computer, which makes up for the high cost of traditional money management. Fourth, the anonymity of e-money is stronger than that of traditional money, avoiding face-to-face transactions. In addition, the author also thinks that compared with the traditional currency, the electronic currency has the advantage of large information carrying capacity. Through the use of e-money in the transaction process, businesses, manufacturers and consumers can get more information than traditional transaction methods. For example, businesses can quickly and timely count the sales volume of hot-selling procts on the Internet, accurately find out the user information of browsing or purchasing through user registration information, and even conct follow-up market research in the form of telephone and e-mail, so as to provide more convenient services. At the same time, consumers can also get quick feedback and perfect after-sales service< However, as a payment tool, there are still some defects in the application of e-money in e-commerce. There are many views on this issue. For example, security problems, imperfect network infrastructure construction, immature development of e-commerce, system reliability, security and digital authentication technology, etc. these problems will have a great impact on the development of e-money. In order to make e-money develop rapidly and healthily, we must solve these problems as soon as possible. We should not only strengthen the construction of network infrastructure, but also improve the popularity of Internet; At the same time, we should actively develop e-commerce to promote the development of e-money; In addition, we should introce and improve the corresponding laws and regulations as soon as possible, provide the corresponding legal protection for the network security, standardize the online transaction proceres, and correctly use the digital certificate< In addition, through the study of e-money, the author thinks that the emergence and application of e-money poses new challenges to traditional value economics and monetary banking. In the future, e to the application of e-money, the central bank can no longer adjust the market economy by adjusting the amount of money issued. New value economics and monetary banking will come into being. Inflation and deflation will also have new interpretations to adapt to the future development of network economy. E-money will form a new discipline, which will impact the traditional theories and ideas of economic and financial circles< Conclusion: expanding the business of e-money is an inevitable requirement of economic development. With the accelerating process of economic globalization and the rapid development of information technology, the realization of electronic monetary and financial system will be an inevitable trend. At present, with the development of information technology related e-commerce, e-commerce, various online shopping systems based on secure data exchange protocol, supply chain management and network marketing, the original computer application system, management system and trade system structure can not keep up with the development and demand of the times. I believe that in the near future, driven by the continuous development of e-commerce, e-money will also get more comprehensive development in social and economic life< References:
1. Yu xutao, Sha Jizhang. Technical problems of e-money. Journal of Changzhou branch of Hehai University, 2000 (1)
2. Zhai Fengrong. E-money and e-payment. Value engineering, 2000 (5)
3. Bai Jing. On e-money and its development in China. Gansu academic journal, 2001 (5)
4, 2001
5. Xu Xiaoyong. The development of e-money and its risk prevention. Zhejiang finance, 2001 (2)
6. Pan Yu. Network economy -- the future direction of economic development. Journal of Nanjing University of Chemical Technology (zheshe Edition), 2000
7. Hu Guangwei, Pan Yu. Network enterprises and their influence on the development strategy of Chinese enterprises. Journal of Nanjing University of Chemical Technology (zheshe Edition), Zhou Jie and Pan Yu. A new way of business operation -- e-commerce. Journal of Nanjing University of Chemical Technology (Philosophy Society Edition), 2000. With the rapid development of electronic finance and Internet, network, as a new trade field, is graally becoming a major development trend of business. E-money system is the basis of e-commerce, e-wallet and so on. The former is mainly used for offline payment, while the latter is used for online payment, basic concepts and main forms of e-money
1. It is a kind of currency circulating in the form of data, and e-commerce is the combination of "communication service" and "data management service". Mondex card in addition to the characteristics of cash, the transmitter is installed in the mobile phone, cash withdrawal, deposit. On the whole; All financial institutions have installed 49000 automatic teller machines and 33 sales terminals. At the same time, it has a better feature than cash, that is, it can safely act as person to person through electronic channels (such as telephone, Internet, etc.), the payment method will tend to be simplified and unified, and the e-commerce network will meet the requirements of consumers, Search for relevant information and provide consumers with a variety of trading options. Once confirmed by consumers, e-commerce will assist in signing and classifying contracts< br />3
1; The other is electronic credit card, including smart card, debit card, telephone card, etc. The cash value is converted into a series of encrypted serial numbers, which are used to represent the currency value of various amounts in reality
Mondex is e-mondex (e-cash). Its main purpose is to replace banknotes and coins for daily small consumption, and to establish and improve the e-money system; There is another kind of electronic check, such as electronic check, electronic remittance (EFT), electronic transfer, etc. This paper will analyze and study the applicability of e-money, one of the tools of e-payment, in e-commerce?? In the face of the coming digital era, transfer, convenient and fast, the development of e-money in China is relatively late compared with the developed countries, and is still in the initial stage. The development of online financial services is less, so that we can really carry out e-commerce activities. 1. European countries are also developing vigorously; In Asia. Among them, the depth and breadth of the application of e-money as a payment tool directly affects the development of e-commerce. Through the process of e-commerce, we can see that e-commerce includes not only commodity flow, information flow and logistics, but also the basic concept of e-money. As the latest form of money, e-money,
1. Money supply is obviously affected by financial innovation
(1) the increase of financial innovative procts reces the predictability of money supply. With the increase of financial innovation procts, the level of money becomes more complex, which accelerates the conversion between different levels of money and improves its circulation speed. Therefore, it is necessary to redefine money and its stratification, and clarify the boundaries between the levels of money, especially for the quasi money in circulation, such as the boundary between demand deposits and quasi money, so as to improve the stability of money supply and circulation, Improve the control of the government and the central bank to make them understand the financial data timely and accurately. In real financial innovation, the boundary between current deposit and circulating fund is not clear, and banks and other financial institutions often use it as a settlement or even payment tool. While financial institutions are innovating, the calculation method of their liabilities is not clear. For example, the emergence of a large number of credit cards has led to the increase of financial risks of some banks, but the financial institutions have not been included in the balance sheet. This will easily lead to the inability to distinguish between speculative money and transactional money, and lead to confusion in the division of money supply levels 2) The increase of foreign exchange deposits has changed the structure of money supply. With the opening of national policy, the amount of foreign exchange deposits has increased significantly. At the same time, the advantage of foreign exchange deposit is that it can be exchanged into RMB for circulation at any time, which brings convenience to financial innovation and widens its channels. However, as far as the current laws and regulations on foreign exchange deposits are concerned, they do not belong to the category of monetary statistics, which leads to the change of money supply structure and brings great challenges to the innovation of financial institutions 3) The emergence of bill financing business. Bill financing business is not only the main source of funds for financial institutions, but also an important factor affecting money transmission. It affects the transmission of monetary policy in both money supply and transmission channels. In addition, the negotiability and payment of bill itself can be realized in many ways, such as discount or rediscount. This has a certain impact on China's currency circulation statistics 4) Loan financing business has changed the capital supply structure. In recent years, the banking system has broadened its business scope and expanded its financing scope, such as personal provident fund loan and SME financing loan. However, the deposits generated in this process have not been included in the scope of money supply, which affects the calculation of money supply 5) The issuance of bonds has changed the scope of capital accounting. In the statistics of broad money circulation, the repeated calculation of money supply is often caused by the failure of reasonable statistics. At the same time, for short-term bonds, the financial bonds issued by policy banks to financial institutions with a maturity of less than one year cannot be fully included in the statistics of broad money, which also leads to the repeated calculation of broad money statistics. For enterprises, short-term financing bonds should be regarded as a kind of bank deposit, but according to the existing laws and regulations, it can not be included in the money supply. In short, in the process of bond issuance, the way of capital accounting is not clear, which leads to many inaccurate calculation of monetary capital, repeated calculation and no calculation< The formula of money multiplier is k = DD / b = 1 / (H + R + e + F + P) (DD, B, h, R, e, F and P respectively represent current deposit, base currency, actual withdrawal rate, legal reserve rate, excess reserve rate, excess reserve rate, cash flow rate, etc The formula of money supply is m = k * B (m, K and B represent money supply, money multiplier and base money respectively). Through the formula, we can analyze the specific impact of financial innovation on money multiplier: 1) since financial innovation improves the liquidity of money, the amount of cash holdings is significantly reced, Then the withdrawal rate will decrease, and the monetary multiplier will be enlarged. 2) e to the influence of financial innovation, the withdrawal times and amount of legal deposit reserve will graally decrease, and the legal reserve ratio will decrease, and the monetary multiplier will be enlarged. 3) financial innovation will proce highly liquid financial instruments, which will directly rece the transactional and preventive demand for money, On the contrary, it increases the demand for speculative money, so the money market is an ideal platform for capital replenishment, so there is no need for financial institutions to deposit excess reserves in the Bank of China, which reces the ratio of excess reserves and enlarges the money multiplier. ④ the promotion of financial derivatives makes the currency more liquid and increases the amount of money similar to demand deposits, Therefore, the ratio of fiscal deposits to current deposits and the ratio of postal savings to current deposits will decline, and the monetary multiplier will be enlarged. Both money supply and money multiplier are uncertain, so financial innovation indirectly affects the monetary authority's control over the base money.