The reason of virtual currency appreciation
Generally speaking, if the supply of money exceeds the demand (the circulation is too large), then the currency (paper money) will depreciate, which will cause inflation; If the supply of money falls short of demand (the circulation is too small), then the currency (paper money) will appreciate, which will cause deflation
The main reason why money can increase value is that it is a form of capital, which can be put into the proction and operation of enterprises as capital. After a period of capital circulation, it will proce profits This kind of profit is the appreciation of money. Therefore, if money is not involved in proction and operation, but is hidden on an isolated island like the treasure of pirates, it will not increase in value
extended information:
currency depreciation can be understood from different angles
from the domestic point of view, under the metal currency system, currency devaluation refers to the measures to rece the legal metal content of domestic currency and its price to metal ratio, so as to rece the value of domestic currency
In modern paper money system, currency devaluation refers to the decline of the value of paper money when the amount of paper money in circulation exceeds the demand for moneyfrom an international point of view, the value of currency is expressed as the exchange capacity with foreign currency, which is reflected in the change of exchange rate. At this time, currency devaluation refers to the decrease of the exchange capacity of a unit of domestic currency to foreign currency, while the decrease of the foreign exchange rate of domestic currency. For example, if 100 US dollars were exchanged for 300 RMB last year and 400 RMB this year, the RMB will depreciate
the devaluation of currency leads to the rise of domestic prices. However, currency devaluation can stimulate proction under certain conditions, and rece the price of domestic goods abroad, which is concive to expanding exports and recing imports. Therefore, after the Second World War, many countries used it as a means of anti economic crisis and stimulating economic development
(1) export is limited. If one country's currency appreciates, the other country's currency depreciates, and the export profits will decrease. In this way, exporters may rece their exports to a certain extent (2) a certain amount of foreign exchange "human evaporation". When one country's currency rises, other countries' currencies fall. In this way, the foreign exchange earned in the past is not so valuablefor example, in the past, the dollar was 1 dollar = 8 yuan. If 1 dollar = 6 yuan, the 800 billion yuan earned in the past will become 600 billion yuan. Even though the amount of money is still 800 billion, its value has declined. In this way, for every 800 billion yuan, 200 billion yuan will "evaporate" and "disappear out of thin air"
if it is "currency devaluation", the performance is opposite to the above. In fact, whether it's currency appreciation or depreciation, it's usually not a good thing. As mentioned above, a large change in the exchange rate (the amount of currency appreciation or devaluation) may cause a certain degree of "confusion" to the macro economy. Therefore, under normal circumstances, the vast majority of countries are trying to keep their currency exchange rate stable
first, the RMB exchange rate has not been adjusted for nearly 10 years since 1994, and China's economy and national strength have undergone profound changes in these 10 years< Second, since the 1990s, some authoritative international institutions and trading partners have always believed that RMB is undervalued to varying degrees
thirdly, according to the theory of international economics, excessive foreign exchange surplus itself indicates that foreign currency is priced too high, local currency is priced too low, and local currency has appreciation pressure
Fourth, since 2001, the currencies of the world's major currencies, including those of Southeast Asian countries, have all appreciated significantly against the US dollar. Only the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not been adjusted, that is, RMB has actually depreciated significantly with the US dollar against other currencies. Not to mention whether the RMB was over depreciated or underpriced in the 1990s, in recent years, the currencies of other countries have greatly appreciated against the US dollar. Only if the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar remains unchanged can we judge that the value of RMB against the US dollar may be undervalued< (3) International Political Analysis
the issue of RMB exchange rate is not only an economic issue, but also an international political issue. Some scholars especially pointed out that there are other reasons behind the frequent calls for RMB appreciation in some western countries. Some are out of jealousy, some are to shift the blame from the domestic authorities, and some are to win the votes of the domestic manufacturing instry. For example, western countries simply associate the value of RMB with the decline of their manufacturing instry, trying to force RMB appreciation. It is not China, but the invisible hand of global competition that causes the decrease of employment opportunities in the United States. There are no more than the following reasons for the foreign clamour for RMB appreciation: first, the RMB exchange rate is too low. Some people suggest that the exchange rate of RMB should be set at about 4.2 yuan per US dollar. Second, China's foreign exchange reserves are too high. Since China's accession to the WTO, there has been no surge in imports. On the contrary, the trade surplus has increased significantly. Third, China's massive export of cheap goods has caused world deflation. Some people think that in recent years, China's massive export of cheap procts has led to deflation in Japan, Europe and the United States. China should make the RMB appreciate and take corresponding responsibility in the world economy
the reason why the U.S. puts pressure on RMB appreciation is that China's "pegging to the U.S. dollar exchange rate" policy fails to give full play to the positive effect of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, but only "greatly enhances the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and stimulates the export of Chinese procts", especially when the U.S. dollar depreciated in 2002, However, the US foreign trade deficit reached a historical peak of 435.2 billion US dollars, and the trade deficit with China reached 103.1 billion US dollars. In fact, the reason for the sharp increase of US foreign trade deficit does not lie in China's RMB exchange rate policy itself, but in the comprehensive effect of many factors, such as the adjustment of US instrial structure, the expansion of foreign direct investment, the growth of personal consumption expenditure, and the J-curve effect of us dollar depreciation
as an extension of military hegemony and economic hegemony, the United States, relying on its dominant position in the international monetary system, arbitrarily and compulsorily carries out its policies according to its own will, continuously gains hegemonic profits and maintains its status as a "financial hegemonic country". By devaluing the US dollar, the United States can not only rece its foreign debt burden, but also stimulate the export of its procts and pass on various economic crises, becoming the main form of its exploitation of other countries. The fundamental purpose of the RMB exchange rate dispute is that the United States hopes to block the large-scale entry of Chinese goods into the United States through the appreciation of RMB. Pressure on RMB appreciation, together with the U.S. anti-mping policy against China, constitutes the new content of the Bush administration's adjustment of economic and trade policy toward China
in recent years, the discussion on "sub yuan" has become more and more hot, and who can become the leading sub yuan in the future has become an increasingly sensitive topic. Japan's economy has been sluggish for a decade, so the possibility of the yen playing a leading role in Asia is diminishing. Due to the rapid economic growth, China has graally become the "locomotive" of Asian economic development and the "engine" of world economic development. Therefore, the value of RMB has become increasingly obvious, and a "RMB zone" has begun to form in China's neighboring countries, which leads to Japan's worry. Under the background of Japan's US $5 billion surplus with China in 2002, Japanese finance minister masaro Yanchuan proposed a motion to ask the group of seven countries to pass "a document similar to the" Plaza Agreement "against the Japanese yen in 1985" to force the appreciation of the RMB and push the global voice of suppressing the appreciation of the RMB to the peak. The purpose is to defeat the challenge of the RMB against the Japanese yen through the appreciation of the RMB, Ensure the future dominance of the yen
in recent years, China's foreign economic frictions have become increasingly fierce, but more of them are only limited to micro economic frictions. After China's entry into WTO, China is in the stage of system adjustment. More and more attention has been paid to the institutional factors in China's economic development. The United States, Japan, Europe and other countries put pressure on RMB appreciation, which makes the share of institutional economic friction in China's foreign economic friction begin to increase< (4) the objective function of RMB appreciation
1. Strengthen the ability of economic self circulation
when the change of exchange rate reflects the supply and demand of foreign currency, enterprises and families can adjust their strategies in time to make more effective use of foreign currency. Moreover, if domestic enterprises take advantage of the cost advantage brought by favorable exchange rate for a long time, the easier it is to earn profits by exporting low-end procts, the less motivation domestic enterprises have to invest in proct R & D. This is not concive to the long-term development of the country's competitiveness< In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the people's Bank of China must buy US dollars from the market and put in RMB. This makes it difficult for the central bank to keep the money supply within the target range. In order to offset the impact of foreign exchange, the people's Bank of China must carry out the so-called "local and foreign currency hedging operation", that is, to buy US dollars and sell government bonds or central bank bills through open market operation, so as to recover funds from the market. Appropriately expanding the fluctuation range of RMB can increase the freedom of monetary policy
3. It is consistent with easing the current concern of "overheating economy"
under the fixed exchange rate, the pressure of appreciation will be transformed into inflationary pressure, which is caused by the increase of money supply caused by foreign exchange. However, the practice of issuing central bank bills to collect foreign exchange is not rable, and will lead to the rise of the government's financial burden. Expanding the floating range of RMB will ease the pressure from appreciation to inflation: RMB appreciation will exert downward pressure on domestic prices, because: 1) the decrease of foreign exchange accounts leads to the decrease of money supply; 2) Currency appreciation will lower import prices, which may depress domestic prices
what is the real purpose of RMB appreciation? The decision made by the central government will not be made for a certain reason, unless the pressure of this reason is so great that the government can not avoid or block it. In my opinion, there are three reasons:
first, to resolve the expectations and pressures of various countries and funds on RMB appreciation
Second, graally get rid of the mode of pegging to the US dollar and prepare for RMB to become a hard currency
thirdly, we should take this opportunity to narrow the exchange rate gap between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB and strive to reach 1:1. Then, at an appropriate time, the RMB, the Hong Kong dollar and the Australian dollar will merge to form a single currency
RMB is pegged to the US dollar. RMB has been in the trend of appreciation in the past 10 years. The appreciation of RMB is reflected in the form of the decline of RMB exchange rate, that is, the amount of RMB converted from 1 US dollar has decreased. The average exchange rate of RMB was 8.6212 in 1994, 8.3490 in 1995, 8.3143 in 1996 and 8.2770 in 2003 (National Bureau of statistics, 2004). The exchange rate of RMB has dropped by 4.1% in recent 10 years. Since 2001, the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable at 8.2770 for three consecutive years. From January to May 2004, the RMB exchange rate is still 8.2770 on average. Since 2003, the RMB is once again facing the pressure of appreciation. The international calls for RMB appreciation have been increasing. The United States, the European Union and Japan have been pressing for RMB appreciation. Some theorists at home and abroad have estimated the "range of RMB appreciation" based on various models. The high estimate is more than 50%, and the low estimate is more than 15%
the reason for RMB appreciation comes from the internal power of China's economic system and external pressure. Internal factors include balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, price level and inflation, economic growth and interest rate. Since 1994, China's current account balance of payments has been in surplus. China's foreign exchange reserves reached 286.4 billion US dollars in 2002, an increase of 5.55 times over 1994. From the perspective of PPP, China's price level is only 21% of that of the United States (World Bank, 2002). From the difference of inflation rate, the average inflation rate of the United States since 1998 is 2.23%, and the average inflation rate (CPI) of China in the same period is - 0.3%, which is 2.53% lower than that of the United States. From 1978 to 2003, China's GDP grew by 9.3% annually. In the past 25 years, China's economic growth is undoubtedly the fastest in the world. From the difference of interest rates between China and the United States, the interbank offered rate in China was 2.7% at the end of 2002, and the federal funds rate in the United States was 1.25%. China's short-term interest rate is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the United States. In China, the RMB deposit rate is also 1.4 percentage points higher than the US dollar deposit rate. In addition, since the first half of 2002, the U.S. dollar has weakened, and the RMB has depreciated along with the U.S. dollar, which deviates from the trend of RMB appreciation. With the rapid growth of China's relative labor proctivity (from 1993 to 1999, the growth rate of labor proctivity of China's manufacturing instry was at least 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the United States manufacturing instry in the same period), on the contrary, with the devaluation of the US dollar, the trade deficit of the countries with trade deficit became larger and larger, which constituted the external pressure of RMB appreciation<
countermeasures:
first, ease the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation
the pressure of exchange rate appreciation comes from many aspects, and the rapid growth of exports, capital inflows and foreign exchange reserves are all important factors. However, at present, China's economic growth is highly dependent on foreign trade, so it is not easy to rece the pressure of RMB appreciation from foreign trade. However, among China's foreign trade partners, China has the largest surplus with the United States and the greatest pressure from the United States. Therefore, we can rece our dependence on the U.S. market by adjusting the geographical structure of foreign trade. In view of the pressure brought by capital inflow, while continuing to encourage the inflow of foreign capital, our enterprises can moderately consider entering other countries' markets by means of foreign direct investment. In view of the pressure brought about by the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, we can take measures to appropriately control the growth rate. In addition, QDII system can also be considered. Through these measures, we can alleviate the pressure of RMB appreciation to a certain extent and lay a foundation for the graal adjustment of RMB exchange rate
Second, in the context of globalization, we should weigh the issue of RMB appreciation and make timely adjustments
the most direct impact is that it is difficult to export
indirect impact, for example, foreigners invest 100 million US dollars in China in the name of investment or some other name when 1 US dollar is 9 yuan. Because other currencies in China are forbidden to circulate, he has to convert the 100 million US dollars into 900 million RMB. Suppose that after his inspection, the RMB appreciates and becomes 1 US dollar to 6 RMB. He looks at it and depends on it! There's no need to invest to make money. The 900 million RMB in hand has become 9 / 6 = 150 million US dollars. Therefore, he said that he was not satisfied with the investigation and converted it back to US dollars. As a result, he made a net profit of $50 million without doing anything, which was lost by the central bank from its foreign exchange reserves.
RMB exchange rate appreciation has 10 advantages:
1. It is concive to China's import
2 The ability of domestic enterprises to invest abroad is enhanced
4. The profit of foreign-invested enterprises in China is increased
5. It is beneficial for talents to study and train abroad
6. The pressure of debt repayment is reced
7. It is more cost-effective for China to sell assets
8. The international status of China's GDP is improved
9. The national tax revenue is increased
10 The international purchasing power of Chinese people is enhanced
the appreciation of RMB exchange rate has six harms:
1
2. RMB appreciation will bring more pressure on China's deflation
3. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will rece the attraction to foreign investment and rece the foreign direct investment to China
4
5. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will rece the profit margin of Chinese enterprises and increase the employment pressure
6. The fiscal deficit will increase e to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and affect the stability of monetary policy.