Virtual currency UIP

1. In 2020, BTC will be halved. I don't need to say more about what it means. The market will start at the end of November or December. The biggest bull market in history is coming. What else can we do

2. "Pig factory" star (Netease star)
Netease is the first batch of applications in China to launch blockchain technology - star. Before the star, Netease had launched "Zhaocai cat", which was later stopped by the state. The planet app can now be downloaded from the app store and has entered the official promotion stage. So what's the purpose of this app? Two concepts are defined in the planet: the black diamond and the force. Black diamond is a virtual currency similar to bitcoin, which can be exchanged for consumption on the later Netease platform. The force is similar to the calculation force, that is, the output capacity of mining. The higher the force is, the more black diamonds will be proced. There are 77 black diamonds in the black diamonds list. On March 27, the planet app will open the exchange and consumption auction of black diamonds, so that the value of black diamonds can be verified. App will proce an indefinite number of black diamonds in a period of time. Users only need to collect them in 48 hours to continuously proce them. In the later stage, they trade through the accumulated black diamonds. As for the value of black diamonds, they need to be evaluated in the later stage

planet app homepage and auction notice

Black Diamond ranking and mining records
Star keyword introction and invitation code
gongxinbao (personal public trust generates value)
gongxinbao itself is a decentralized data exchange, a technology company specialized in blockchain technology. Its app, gongxinbao, has a million level registration, and is also a mobile phone "mining" proct. This app mainly relies on the binding of personal information to generate a public chain of public trust chain, which increases the computing power through the binding of personal information to proce virtual currency. There are many kinds of virtual currency: GXS, ATM, candy, MAG, STC, UIP. A variable quantity of a currency is generated at a time. The binding of personal information includes face recognition, Alipay / Taobao, learning letter network, operators, Jingdong, credit card email account, binding GXS wallet and backup wallet. The more information is bound, the stronger the computing power is, and the more virtual coins are proced. At present, the output of gongxinbao virtual currency has no specific application scope, but gongxinbao itself and many enterprises should have a lot of related functions in the later stage of cooperation<

gongxinbao app homepage

related computing power acquisition and description
insurwallet - blockchain insurance project
this is a blockchain proct based on insurance business, which is not as popular as the above two procts, but this event has launched the blockchain technology application of corresponding exchange business, which almost kills the above two applications. Although app can only be exchanged for online payment security insurance now, this behavior is similar to the meaning of exchanging 10000 bitcoin for pizza in that year. The virtual currency has a certain value. The application also generates insur currency based on computing power, which can be obtained by inviting friends and checking in. The positioning of this application identity is very accurate, which belongs to the blockchain technology of insurance project, but the development direction is not very clear, and the later development needs to be observed. Maybe it's also possible to exchange auto insurance, health insurance and endowment insurance later.

3. Huobi hadax will open UIP / BTC and UIP / eth trading in hadax at 14:00 Singapore time on March 6, 2018.

4. What we usually read from newspapers is nominal exchange rate - E.

nominal exchange rate is the price ratio of one country's currency to another country's currency. For example, the US dollar is 1.43dm / $or 0.70 $/ DM against the German mark. In short, it is how many marks a US dollar can be converted into. When we go to the bank to convert, we convert according to the nominal exchange rate, In this way, if e rises, it means that a unit of foreign currency can be converted into more domestic currency, then we say that the domestic currency is devalued; On the contrary, if e declines, the domestic currency will appreciate.

nominal exchange rate is the most common in our daily life, but here we want to discuss the interaction between exchange rate and macro economy. We can't see any relationship from nominal exchange rate, so for students of macro economy, Nominal exchange rate is not our special concern. When there is trade between countries, the importers and exporters are not only concerned about how much money I can exchange for abroad, but also how much money I can buy from you. If I can exchange one yuan for 100 foreign currencies, the price of things in your country is 200 times higher than that in our country, Then I still can't import things from you. So domestic and foreign prices must be taken into account here. How? If I have 1 yuan RMB now and the domestic price is p, then I can buy 1 / P unit of Chinese goods. If I exchange it into US dollars, then I can get 1 / e US dollars. If the foreign price is p *, then I can buy 1 / EP * unit of American goods. In other words, 1 / P unit of Chinese goods can be exchanged for 1 / EP * unit of American goods, One unit of U.S. goods can be exchanged for EP * / P units of Chinese goods. This concept is a very important real exchange rate, RER.

another point of view is the real exchange rate: for the same goods, China sells P / unit, and the United States sells p * / unit, In this way, it is easy for importers and exporters to compare: for example, Automobile Importers need to decide whether to import automobiles. They first look at the domestic automobile market price P, and then look at the U.S. automobile market price p *, and exchange it into EP * RMB to compare with the domestic price P, If the real exchange rate rises, it means that one unit of foreign goods is exchanged for more domestic goods, then the domestic exchange rate will depreciate; From our second point of view, if the real exchange rate rises, the same thing will be sold at a higher price in foreign countries, and the profit margin of importers will be reced, thus the number of imports will be reced. Therefore, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is harmful to domestic importers, Note: 1. When we discuss the effect of exchange rate on import and export, we are talking about the real exchange rate, not the nominal exchange rate, for the reasons mentioned in the beginning; 2. Although the depreciation of the real exchange rate makes the import quantity Q (m) decrease, the total import quantity V (m) = q (m) EP * = q (m) * RER * P under the current account in the balance of payments is reflected. Now Q decreases, but RER rises, so it is difficult to judge the change direction of the total import quantity. In fact, ring the period of devaluation of domestic currency, the total export quantity of many developing countries increases, But at the same time, the total import volume also increased. This is because Q (m) has not decreased much, because these developing countries are highly dependent on the imports of developed countries.

the above real exchange rate is the exchange rate between the two countries, which we call & quot; Bilateral Real Exchange Rate". But we know that in the objective world, if a country is trading with many countries, there will be many bilateral real exchange rates. This is very troublesome for our economic analysis. Can we establish a comprehensive multilateral real exchange rate? Let's say that we can. For example, we can establish a multilateral real exchange rate between China and its trading partners. There is a bilateral real exchange rate between China and the United States that can be calculated according to RER (US) = EP * / P. similarly, the bilateral real exchange rate between China and the United Kingdom, such as RER (ind) in India, RER (KOR) in South Korea, can also be calculated, China's exports to the United States account for a% of China's total exports to the world, B% to the United Kingdom, C% to India, d% to South Korea and E% to Iraq, It measures how many units of China's same goods can be exchanged for a unit of world goods, which is the weighted average:

mrer = RER (US) a% + RER (Eng) B% + RER (ind) C% + RER (Kore) d% + RER (IRA) e%

in this way, the multilateral real exchange rate of export can be calculated, and the import can also be calculated, Economists take the average of import multilateral real exchange rate and export multilateral real exchange rate as the final country's multilateral real exchange rate.

summary: the rise of real exchange rate indicates that foreign goods are expensive and domestic exchange rate depreciates, which is beneficial to exports and harmful to imports; The decline of real exchange rate indicates that domestic goods are relatively expensive, and the appreciation of domestic exchange rate is beneficial to imports and harmful to exports.

finally, let's look at a model that links nominal exchange rate e with interest rate, one of the macroeconomic parameters. This is a bridge between nominal exchange rate and macroeconomic analysis, We will not be able to analyze the impact of the nominal exchange rate on the macro economy. Suppose you have a dollar now, you can have two choices about how to invest the dollar. First, you can buy American bonds, so that you can get (1 + I (T)) dollars a year; Second, you can first exchange it into 1 / E (T) mark, and then buy German bonds, so that you can get (1 + I * (T)) / E (T) mark one year later, and then exchange it into US dollars, and you expect to get the US dollar of EE (T + 1) (1 + I * (T)) / E (T), We have such a formula:

1 + I (T) = EE (T + 1) (1 + I * (T)) / E (T). By mathematical estimation, we can approximate it:

I (T) = I * (T) + (ee-e) / E

this is the famous UIP conditional equation. Although it is simple, it is very important. For example, it can explain the occurrence of financial crisis, The other meaning of the equation is that if the exchange rates of the two countries adopt the pegging system, such as RMB pegging to the US dollar to keep the exchange rate in a stable range, then E will remain unchanged, At the same time, if people believe that China can keep a firm eye on the US dollar, then people's exchange rate expectation EE will not change much. In this way, we can judge from the equation that the trend of interest rates in the two countries should be roughly the same. This has been verified in real life.

5. Exchange rate is one of the core variables in the operation of open economy. Various macro variables and micro factors will cause its changes through various ways, and its changes will have an important impact on other economic variables, How to determine the level of equilibrium exchange rate and what factors determine the change of exchange rate? We urgently need to know the answers to these questions, Then it introces several main theories of exchange rate determination.
section one: the basis of exchange rate determination and the factors that affect its changes, The essence of exchange rate lies in the exchange rate of the amount of value possessed or represented by two currencies. Therefore, the basis of determining exchange rate is the amount of value contained in unit currency. Under different monetary systems, the basis of determining exchange rate is different. Therefore, it is necessary to review the historical evolution of monetary system, The evolution of monetary system
the world monetary system has gone through silver standard, gold and silver double standard, gold standard and paper currency standard. Since the unified world market appeared in the era of gold standard, the discussion of exchange rate began with gold standard.
the original form of gold standard is gold standard, which is based on gold, In the 1920s, Britain, France and other countries began to implement the gold standard because of the shortage of gold. That is to say, only when large-scale payment is made, can gold participate in the circulation and payment in the form of gold. The gold standard system is still a gold standard system, because in this system, the value of paper money is based on gold, representing the circulation of gold and maintaining a fixed price comparison with gold, Gold still participates in clearing and payment to a certain extent.
with the development of economy, the function of gold circulation and payment means is graally replaced by paper money, and the monetary system has evolved into gold exchange standard system, which is also a kind of gold standard system; The government announces the amount of gold represented by the unit note and maintains the gold price ratio of the note; Paper money acts as a measure of value, means of circulation and means of payment, and can be freely exchanged with gold according to the price ratio announced by the government; During the first World War and the great capitalist economic crisis from 1929 to 1933, the major capitalist countries issued a large number of paper money to raise funds to cope with the war and stimulate the economy, which made the fixed price ratio between paper money and gold unable to maintain, and the gold exchange standard system finally collapsed after several iterations, The paper currency standard system is widely used in many countries.
Second, the exchange rate under different monetary systems is determined
1. The exchange rate under the gold standard system is determined
under the gold standard system, all countries stipulate the legal gold content of money. The price ratio between two different currencies is determined by their respective gold content. For example, the gold content of 1 pound was 7.3224 grams from 1925 to 1931, The gold content of one dollar is 1.504656 grams, which is equal to 4.8665 (7.3224 / 1.504656), that is, one pound is equal to 4.8665 dollars, The basis of exchange rate determination is seigniorage. In real economy, exchange rate fluctuates around seigniorage e to the relationship between supply and demand, but the fluctuation is limited by gold points. Under the gold standard, gold can be freely imported and exported. Therefore, there are two ways to settle creditor's rights and debts among countries: one is non cash settlement, that is, using bills of exchange and other means; For example, before the first World War, the cost of transporting gold between Britain and the United States was US $0.03 per pound. Assuming that the United States had a balance of payments deficit with Britain, the demand for sterling increased, If 1 pound rises to 4.8965 US dollars (i.e. mint parity 4.8665 plus the cost of transporting gold 0.03 US dollars), the US debtor will not buy the pound foreign exchange, but would rather buy the gold in the us to transport the UK to repay its debt, because it only costs 4.8965 US dollars, The fluctuation of exchange rate can not go out of this point; On the contrary, the fluctuation of exchange rate can not be lower than the gold import point. If the UK has a balance of payments deficit with the US dollar, it will buy and sell foreign exchange at the price of 1 pound to US $4.8365 (that is, Seigniorage parity of US $4.8665-us $0.03), As long as each country does not change the legal gold content of its own currency, the exchange rate between currencies will be stable for a long time.
2. The determination of exchange rate under the gold standard and gold exchange standard system
in the gold standard system, gold has rarely been directly used as a means of circulation, the vast majority of gold is controlled by the government, and its free import and export are affected, Gold reserves are concentrated in the hands of the government. In daily life, gold no longer has the function of a means of circulation, and its output and input are greatly restricted. Under these two monetary systems, the exchange rate of money is determined by the ratio of the amount of gold represented by paper money, which is called legal parity. The real exchange rate fluctuates around the legal parity e to the relationship between supply and demand, The government maintains the stability of the exchange rate by setting up an exchange stabilization fund, selling foreign exchange when the exchange rate rises and buying foreign exchange when the exchange rate falls, so as to limit the fluctuation of the exchange rate to the allowable range, At this time, the stability of the exchange rate has been reced.
3. The determination of the exchange rate under the paper currency standard system
under the paper currency standard system which is decoupled from gold, the paper currency no longer represents or replaces the gold coin in circulation, and accordingly, the gold parity is no longer the basis for determining the exchange rate, The exchange rate between the two countries' banknotes can be determined by the ratio of their respective values. Therefore, the value represented by the banknotes is the basis of determining the exchange rate.
thirdly, the main factors affecting the exchange rate are influenced by many factors, including economic factors, political factors and psychological factors, With the development of world political and economic situation, each factor has different effects on different countries at different times.
1. Real economic factors
(1) economic growth. The influence of real economic growth rate on a country's currency exchange rate is more complex: on the one hand, real economic growth reflects the enhancement of a country's economic strength, Then the value of the currency of the country may rise, and accordingly, the exchange rate may fall (direct pricing method); On the other hand, the acceleration of economic growth and the increase of domestic demand will increase a country's imports. If exports remain unchanged, the country's current account surplus will decrease or even have a deficit, The net effect of economic growth on a country's exchange rate depends on the comparison of the above two aspects.
(2) balance of payments. Balance of payments has a long-term impact on a country's exchange rate, especially the current account. If a country's balance of payments has a surplus, the foreign demand for the country's currency and the foreign money supply will increase relatively, Therefore, the exchange rate of the country's currency will fall, that is, its value will rise; In the fixed exchange rate period, the balance of payments is a particularly important factor to determine the exchange rate. Under the floating exchange rate, some nominal economic factors such as interest rate and inflation rate become more important.
(3) capital flow. The impact of capital flow on the exchange rate is through two channels: one is to change the relative supply and demand of foreign exchange; the other is to change the relative supply and demand of foreign exchange, The second is to change people's expectation of exchange rate. Taking a country's massive capital outflow as an example, the former means that the supply of foreign currency in the domestic foreign exchange market is relatively reced, and the value of foreign currency will rise relative to the domestic currency, that is, the exchange rate of domestic currency will rise; As for the latter, the market expects the currency of the country to depreciate, so it sells the currency of the country to buy foreign currency. As a result, the exchange rate rises, and the initial expectation becomes a reality; Self actualization & quot; The foreign exchange reserve held by the central bank indicates a country's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market and maintain the exchange rate, so it plays a certain role in stabilizing the exchange rate in the short term, It also affects the competitiveness of a country's goods and services in the world market. Due to the existence of inflation, the export of goods will decrease and the import will increase. These changes will affect the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, leading to changes in the exchange rate. At the same time, the decline of a country's currency's internal value will inevitably affect its external value, Since the early 1970s, e to the different fiscal and monetary policies of different countries, the inflation rate has been greatly different, so the exchange rate fluctuates violently. However, there is a process for the internal devaluation of a country to transfer to the external devaluation of its currency, The exchange rate will be adjusted to a reasonable level according to the real purchasing power of the currency.
(2) interest rate; In the short run, interest rate plays a significant role in the change of exchange rate.
(3) money supply. The influence of money supply on exchange rate is mainly through interest rate, inflation and real economic growth, However, economic expansion will enhance the market's confidence in a country's currency and make it rise. The impact of money supply on a country's currency exchange rate depends on the country's economic structure, the adjustment speed of commodity market and foreign exchange market, etc, The sudden increase of money supply will make the value of a country's currency decline rapidly, and in the long run, the exchange rate will return to the equilibrium level.
3. Psychological factor
psychological factor mainly refers to the psychology of expectation. Expectation was introced into the research field of exchange rate in the early 1970s, Expectations can be divided into stable and unstable. Stable expectations mean that when people expect a currency to decline, they will buy it, so as to ease the decline of the currency value; Obviously, the foreign exchange trading behavior based on this kind of expected psychology is concive to the stability of the exchange rate. The unstable expected behavior is just opposite to the stable expected behavior. The traders who act according to this kind of expected psychology will sell further when the currency value is low and buy further when the currency value is high, Information, news and rumors are the main factors that affect people's expectation psychology

6. The people's Bank of China publishes the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and other major currencies according to the prices formed in the inter-bank foreign exchange market the day before. On this basis, all banks shall list their own shares within the floating range specified by the people's Bank of China
at present, the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar is allowed to fluctuate within 2% of the middle price, while that of RMB against ringgit and RMB against ruble is allowed to fluctuate within 5% of the middle price. The exchange rate of non US dollar to RMB fluctuates within 3% above and below the middle price level.

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