How to calculate the risk of virtual currency

As a proct of e-commerce, virtual currency is playing a more and more important role, and it is more and more connected with the real world. However, with the growth of virtual currency, the relevant laws and regulations are lagging behind, which has laid many hidden dangers. Since 2004, the discussion on whether virtual currency represented by Q currency will impact RMB has been concerned by all parties. But officials have not been clear about this. The trading mode of virtual currency also expanded rapidly. A series of events triggered the attention of the community to the virtual currency. People have expressed their views on it. Some people think that virtual currency will have an impact on RMB, so we should take compulsory measures to prohibit the issuance of virtual currency; Some people hold a reserved attitude that virtual currency will not have an impact on RMB and should not stifle the development vitality of commercial organizations too early. Zhang Jie of Huawei group thinks so
with the continuous progress of technology, electronic payment (including electronic money) not only changes people's payment habits, but also imperceptibly changes people's consumption habits and promotes the expansion of consumer credit. It is necessary to pay close attention to the innovation of the form, the evolution of the nature, the difference of the operation mode and the possible impact on the credit risk and moral hazard of this new thing, and properly supervise it. But the more important thing is to give the market main body corresponding development space, avoid strangling the development vitality of the corresponding business organization in the early stage of market development. Therefore, the best way to treat e-money is to observe its changes and strengthen research. In the face of such remarks as "q-coin impacts the RMB financial market", we need to discuss them in the context of scientific and technological progress. The key to understand the problem is how to design relevant policies and encourage the development of electronic payment instruments such as electronic money, rather than the harm of speculative virtual money and electronic money. We call for strengthening supervision

It is difficult to avoid the typical risks related to the payment system. In a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing the typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks largely depend on the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity. It is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of important payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause or transmit shocks to the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and there is no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. In the network virtual currency scheme, network currency is not the settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default. The security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is easily used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect consumers' rights and interests and financial stability, and restrain the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities. At present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities

unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, bitcoin market is not deep enough, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' trading behavior and controlled by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin. Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude. Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on its price, especially in the short term