Analysis on the liquidity of virtual currency
at present, the well-known virtual currencies are bitcoin, Laite coin, Fuyuan coin and doggy coin.
Great Wall coins generally refer to commemorative coins. Great Wall coin can be regarded as the originator of current coins and commemorative coins in contemporary China, and it can also be called trial coin. Great Wall currency includes: 1 jiao, 2 jiao, 5 jiao and 1 yuan. The Great Wall coins were issued for seven years (1980-1986), of which only four years (1980, 1981, 1983, 1985) were issued to the public, and only three years (1980, 1981, 1983) were issued to the public.
LZ is actually a problem that all countries in the world will face in the future. It is obvious that China, the world's largest virtual network market, lags behind developed countries by a large margin. Ha ha, ha ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, The total social demand is greater than the total social supply, and the supply is greater than the demand
2. The regional statistical bureaus under the National Bureau of statistics must count the money circulation of the region every week to report to the Ministry of Finance for filing, and the central bank will set the money supply for the next year. If we find that there is too much money in circulation in the society, we should adopt tightening policy and raise interest rate to recover some money. If there is less, the opposite is true. We will find that no matter where the Bureau of statistics can only count the currency in circulation. For those virtual currencies, they are those Q currencies. China and even many countries still can't make accurate statistics, once the whole China in extreme cases, throw out Q currency for other people's real currency. For example, a sells 10 Q coins to B, and B has to go to the bank to withdraw 10 yuan. If all Q coins are sold off and someone buys them, the market currency will increase, the currency will depreciate and cause inflation
PS: I want to remind LZ that this may be too small. Virtual currency is different from e-money. E-money is our common people's lucky money, which is deposited in the bank and converted into bank network currency. The state can get statistics, and the banks have records. Virtual currency is different, many times it is free, so there are many disadvantages when it is immature. Lack of liquidity, not everywhere can use Q currency, it can only be used for Tencent games, electronic currency can be used for any network transactions. If you really take all the Q coins to exchange, the worst may be the collapse of Tencent, which will not cause inflation
sorry, I think that virtual currency does not necessarily cause inflation. For example: A sells Q coins to B, B must withdraw money to buy. There are three possibilities for a to get money: 1. Deposit 2. Holding 3. Consumption. If a chooses to deposit or consume, in fact, the money flows into the bank, which means that B withdraws from the bank and a deposits the money. But if a holds it at home and everyone sells it, it will cause inflation One of Keynes's theorems is liquidity preference. Keynes thinks that money demand refers to the amount of money that the public can and is willing to hold in a specific period. According to him, people need to hold money because of the general psychological tendency of liquidity preference. The so-called liquidity preference refers to people's psychological preference for liquidity and their desire to hold money rather than other illiquid assets. This desire constitutes the demand for money. Therefore, Keynes' money demand theory is also known as the liquidity preference theory, because there are more and more money in the society, the currency devalues.
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
It is difficult to avoid the typical risks related to the payment system. In a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing the typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks largely depend on the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity. It is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of important payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause or transmit shocks to the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and there is no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. In the network virtual currency scheme, network currency is not the settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default. The security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is easily used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect consumers' rights and interests and financial stability, and restrain the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities. At present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities
The reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of its policies, especially monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB will define reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so it is necessary to guard against the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. Although in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, its high volatility and instability also increase the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without regulation, the central bank may be regarded as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation Compared with the exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is the transaction based on investment that accelerates the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, the participants of virtual money market will also face the potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take the bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to the beginning of 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden age. Because the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, the bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with the US dollar reached 1:1; In 2013, the bitcoin price achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, exceeding the gold price of US $1241.98/oz in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risksunlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, bitcoin market is not deep enough, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' trading behavior and controlled by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin. Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude. Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on its price, especially in the short term
First, personalized virtual currency will have information function in addition to liquidity and value-added
the biggest difference between personalized virtual currency and stock market is not only the integrated pricing function with reference points, but also the distributed pricing function with reference points. This process is not completed in the virtual money market, but in the development of personalized modern services. For example, in the process of indivial auction, the bargaining process combined with frame should include not only a process of utility exchange leading to value unification, but also a process of value realization leading to value diversification. This means that virtual currency must be combined with the development of personalized information service instry. Although the stock also has certain information function, but this kind of information is subordinate, it is instry centered
in the future, virtual currency can simultaneously perform three functions of currency, stock and information card: on the one hand, it can obtain liquidity as the base currency (or exchange with the base currency); On the one hand, it has value-added function; The most important thing is that it can also add information. And this kind of information is just a kind of interface information to be completed, which needs to continue to realize its value in the service instry
secondly, personalized virtual currency will have its own cultural value orientation
in the future personalized virtual currency trading market, price level information similar to today's stock index will also be formed. But different from stock index, personalized virtual currency price index will not reflect investment value-added information, but entertainment value, cultural value, spiritual value, freedom value and personality value similar to cool value. For example, the game index may not reflect its investment value, but the value of indivial freedom
for another example, in the super girl vote, it reflects the popularity index, not the professional index. If it is not SMS voting, but a personalized IC card integrated with currency and derivative financial instruments, such as corn card and fans card, the value of the card will fluctuate with the fashion information, reflecting the freedom of personal choice. Once it is combined with the development of personalized service instry, it will form a benign interaction mechanism
thirdly, personalized virtual money market will play a role in promoting traditional instries
with the development of game instrialization and instrial Gamification, indivial freedom has been comprehensively developed, that is, personalized self realization, which will become the ultimate goal of instrial upgrading. Traditional instries, including proct manufacturing and service instries, will take the satisfaction of spiritual and cultural values as the pursuit of added value of procts and services. In the context of the development of this instry, the role of personalized information service instry in driving traditional instries may be realized through the guidance of personalized virtual money market. In other words, after the procts and services of traditional instries have reached the optimal homogenization, they will eventually find out under the guidance of the information market that those things that are cool enough will sell well, and those that are not cool enough will not sell
the future instrial development will need not only GNP type stock index guidance, but also GNH type cool value index guidance. Japan, which has put forward GNC (National cool value), is moving towards such an instrial development mode, thus following the Meiji Restoration, moving towards the road of modern instrial development. The United States and South Korea have also come to the front in this regard. China is facing the choice of the second modernization. Many "little things" like virtual currency actually contain significant information
