Will virtual currency collapse in 2018

7. China's economy may encounter the biggest difficulties in the middle of next year, and the financial tsunami has landed in many countries around the world. Facing the possible economic recession, the world is taking measures to rescue the market. In the case of China's GDP growth rate of only 9% in the third quarter, what is the trend of China's economy in the future? I would like to make a few comments. The economic downturn is hard to reverse, according to data released by the National Bureau of statistics on the 20th, GDP in the first three quarters increased by 9.9% year-on-year, down 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year. On this basis, GDP growth in the third quarter is only 9%. So many people are worried about the trend of China's economy in the fourth quarter and 2009. In fact, the economic downturn has been quite serious. According to the earlier report, the growth rate of electricity consumption in September has dropped to 3%, and that from January to September has dropped to 9.9%. According to the empirical value, the economic growth rate corresponding to this level of electricity consumption should be at least below 9%. The main problem is the decline in the contribution of exports and investment, of which the contribution of exports decreased by 0.9 points. Now it seems that the economic downturn is intensifying, and it is difficult to judge when it will bottom out, because there is a risk of a hard landing for China's economy in the future. Once it happens, it may be a long time. There will be a lag period from the financial turmoil to the sharp decline of global aggregate demand, so the middle of next year will be a very difficult period. Four major factors affect the inflation pressure. Domestic CPI rose by 4.6% in September, 0.3 percentage point lower than last month; PPI rose 9.1%, down 1.0 percentage points from last month. What's the inflation situation in the fourth quarter and 2009 after the double falls of PPI and CPI? In fact, CPI decline is mainly e to the disappearance of tail factors, while PPI decline is mainly e to the recent sharp decline in the international commodity market. At present, the pressure of domestic inflation has eased, and inflation is expected to continue to fall in the fourth quarter, but there is great uncertainty about inflation in 2009{ This answer belongs to чī The unprecedented rescue plan of western countries is always the potential source of inflation in the medium and long term. From the domestic point of view, several factors should be noted: 1. Whether the prices of primary procts such as energy and grain will rise after shocks. If there is no new instrial bright spot in the U.S. economy, there are only three possible directions: consumer credit, emerging markets, energy and other resource markets. As a result, the commodity market rebounded, thus giving a new impetus to PPI. 2. The weakening of fiscal capacity will force the government to relax price control, thus releasing the long-standing inflationary pressure. 3. After the collapse of a large number of manufacturing enterprises, there will be new inflationary pressure on the supply side of manufactured goods. 4. The expansionary monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy that have to be adopted will promote the price rise from the level of money supply. The biggest pressure on enterprises is the sharp drop in external demand. In the first three quarters, the added value of instries above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, 3.3 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year, including an increase of 11.4% in September. This data reflects the aggravation of the deterioration of the business situation of enterprises, and it is a high probability event that the growth rate returns to the single digit. Enterprises are facing four major pressures: exchange rate appreciation, rising raw material costs, rising labor costs, and sudden drop in external demand. If the European and American economies fall into a deep recession, it will be fatal for a country whose exports already account for 40% of GDP. Now, it seems that exports remained stable in the third quarter, mainly e to the continuation of orders in the first half of the year. However, from January to September, the U.S. financial crisis has not spread from the market to the real economy, and the U.S. economy has maintained a growth rate of 2%. But in late September, after the Lehman incident, the feeling was obviously different. The firewall between the market and the real economy was broken. In the next few quarters, the U.S. economy will enter a significant recession, the spillover effect will affect the world, and China's exports are not optimistic. It is likely to fall back to single digit growth in the first half of next year. By the end of September 2008, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was US $1.9 trillion, up 32.92% year on year. In September, foreign exchange reserves increased by US $21.4 billion, far lower than the trade surplus of US $29.3 billion that month. On the whole, the capital inflows in July, August and September dropped sharply. After the financial tsunami, the withdrawal of international capital from emerging markets should be a trend, and it is happening. With the deleveraging of the US economy, consumer credit will shrink sharply, and the economic prospects of the corresponding emerging market export model are pessimistic. At the same time, it is also an important factor to sell off assets and withdraw a large amount of capital to make up for the losses of the home country's financial institutions and meet the requirements of deleveraging financial adjustment. If the trend continues, we can't rule out the months when China's foreign reserves declined after the middle of 2009. In fact, in 2007, China's economy has come to the end of an existing economic model, and there has been an obvious turning point in the progress of labor proctivity. Before the emergence of China's new model, the appreciation space of RMB real exchange rate has been exhausted. Overseas countries are most aware of this. Singapore's one-year non deliverable RMB exchange rate has shown a significant discount. The possibility of devaluation of RMB exchange rate in 2009 is increasing. China's manufacturing instry is very fragile. How big is the impact of global economic slowdown on China's manufacturing instry? In my opinion, this is catastrophic. Because China's manufacturing instry is a big in and big out structure, resources and markets are in the hands of the United States and Europe. On the one hand, China's manufacturing instry has to bear the pressure of imported inflation such as rising raw material prices; On the other hand, China's manufacturing instry is unable to move the cost pressure out, because the pricing power of global manufactured goods is not in China, although China is known as "world factory" or "world workshop". However, both ends of the value chain of modern manufacturing instry are not controlled by China, and high value-added fields such as R & D, raw material procurement, brand design, sales channel management, after-sales service, retail monopoly giants are in the hands of the United States and Europe. China's manufacturing instry is only working with orders, not directly facing the final consumers. This kind of structure is very fragile, resources and market are squeezed in both directions, and a large number of enterprises are bound to close down. To extend the instrial value chain, is there any new growth point to support the economy in China? To solve this problem, it is necessary to reform hard to see and create new economic growth points. From a macro perspective, it is mainly to adjust the structure of investment and consumption, and firmly turn to an economy dominated by domestic consumption by accelerating the reform of the price formation mechanism of resource procts and factors, and by accelerating the adjustment of wealth distribution among residents, governments, enterprises and residents. At the micro level, the so-called transformation and upgrading of enterprises are not accurate. They are not driving our labor-intensive enterprises away or moving them in. None of these can solve the problem. The problem of China's manufacturing instry is that it is at the low end of the value distribution chain and is being slaughtered in the international division of labor. Therefore, the key to the problem is to extend the instrial value chain. Only by extending to both ends, such as raw material procurement, R & D, logistics, warehousing, sales network and brand, can modern manufacturing and modern service instries be created, thus reaching the agreement with the macro objectives.

8. In the long run, virtual currency will not lose money, but it is illegal in China