Virtual currency of European Parliament and monetary policy of c
Publish: 2021-05-13 03:08:11
1.
1、 Different definitions:
1. virtual currency:
virtual currency refers to non real currency
digital currency:digital currency is an alternative currency in the form of electronic currency. Both digital gold coin and cryptocurrency belong to digiccy
3. Cryptocurrency:
cryptocurrency is a kind of transaction medium that uses cryptography principles to ensure transaction security and control the creation of transaction units
4. Token (token):
a kind of article whose shape and size are similar to currency, but the scope of use is limited and has no currency effect, and its token is the homonym of token in English
Second, the characteristics are different:1; It can also be said that virtual currency is personalized currency. In another way, it can also be called information currency
2. Digital currency:
is an unregulated and digital currency, which is usually issued and managed by developers and accepted and used by members of specific virtual communities
Cryptocurrency:cryptocurrency is based on the decentralized consensus mechanism, which is opposite to the banking and financial system relying on the centralized regulatory system
4. Token (token):
usually needs to be exchanged for money, used in shops, playgrounds, mass transportation and other places, as a voucher to use services and exchange goods
extended data
at present, digital currency is more like an investment proct, because it lacks a strong guarantee agency to maintain its price stability, and its role as a value measure has not yet appeared, so it can not be used as a means of payment. As an investment proct, digital currency cannot develop without trading platform, operating company and investment company
digital currency is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the blockchain technology it relies on has been decentralized and can be used in other fields except digital currency, which is one of the reasons why bitcoin is popular; On the other hand, if digital currency is widely used by the public as a kind of currency, it will have a huge impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, financial infrastructure, financial market and financial stability
2.
On November 9, 2019, the central bank has not launched digital currency
in 2014, the Central Bank of China set up a special research team to conct in-depth research on the framework of digital currency issuance and business operation, key technologies of digital currency, issuance and circulation environment, and legal issues
in January 2017, the central bank officially established the digital currency Research Institute in Shenzhen
in September 2018, the Institute of digital currency built a trade finance blockchain platform
On July 8, 2019, at the launching ceremony of the digital finance open research program and the first academic seminar, Wang Xin, director of the Research Bureau of the people's Bank of China, disclosed that the State Council has officially approved the research and development of the central bank's digital currency, and the central bank is engaged in corresponding work in organizing market institutions
extended data:
benefits of digital currency
the digitalization of central bank's currency helps to optimize the central bank's monetary payment function, improve the central bank's monetary status and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The central bank's digital currency can become an interest bearing asset to meet the holder's reserve demand for safe assets, and can also become the lower limit of bank deposit interest rate. It can also become a new monetary policy tool
at the same time, the central bank can affect the bank deposit and loan interest rate by adjusting the digital currency interest rate of the central bank, and help to break the zero interest rate lower limit
3. In fact, the central bank has been studying digital currency for a long time. From the perspective of historical development trend, money has always evolved with the development of technological progress and economic activities. From the early physical money, commodity money to the later credit money, it is a natural choice to adapt to the development of human commercial society. As the currency of the previous generation, paper money has low technology content. From the perspective of safety and cost, it is the general trend to be replaced by new technology and new procts. In particular, with the development of the Internet and the great changes in payment methods all over the world, the establishment of digital currency issuance and circulation system is very necessary for the construction of financial infrastructure and the promotion of economic quality, efficiency and upgrading.
4. Understanding of the concept of virtual currency
(1) virtual currency based on entity
since ancient times, all "money" made of paper is called paper currency, and all countries in the world are actually paper currency. In Marx's time, paper money was only a symbol of metal money. The actual gold content of paper money was equal to the nominal gold content. When the nominal gold content was greater than the actual gold content, the price index of metal money would increase because of too many paper money. When it exceeded a certain limit, inflation would occur. Marx called these over issued bank notes without gold as guarantee virtual currency. In Keynesian era, paper money was the symbol of GDP. He defined the issue of paper money caused by making up the fiscal deficit as deficit money, and believed that the issue of paper deficit money could promote the development of proction to a certain extent, but only cause half inflation. Zhang chunjia's research in "Introction to virtual currency" also proves that paper money without precious metal and GDP guarantee will cause price rise, and this kind of money is called virtual currency
(2) virtual currency based on virtual
virtual currency is a new type of currency emerging at a certain stage of network social and economic development to meet the security and convenience needs of users. It represents the development direction of future currency existence form. It comes from the Internet, and acts as a general equivalent in the network society completely or partially. Virtual currency is a real currency with the basic attributes of currency, but it is virtual and depends on the network virtual environment. Virtual currency is born without borders, which makes it more liquid than traditional currency in the world. Virtual world corresponds to the real world. Through the exchange relationship between virtual currency and traditional currency, under certain conditions, specific virtual currency can buy physical goods, and traditional currency can also buy specific virtual goods< Second, the characteristics of virtual currency
1. Value: users get utility value by consuming the procts and services provided by operators. Virtual currency has value by providing exchange to meet the utility of consumers. The quantity of virtual currency measures the value of general goods. The issue essence of virtual currency is credit issue, which is the creditor's right of the holder to the issuer. To a certain extent, the value of this kind of claim is the right of claim
2. Virtual environment dependence. The existence of virtual currency is based on the virtual economic environment provided by the issuers and the sustainable operation of the issuers themselves. Otherwise, virtual currency has no significance.
3. Short sighted currency. As the highest price in the process of commodity exchange, the form of currency value can be regarded as the real currency. Because of the limitation of circulation scope, virtual currency can not be used as the general equivalent of all commodities; But in a certain range, it has the function of monetary value scale and circulation means. Therefore, it can be considered that virtual currency is similar to the form of money value, and it is a primary form of money, which is similar to money< The issue and circulation of virtual money is limited, but it will enlarge the money supply through the money multiplier effect, and affect the difficulty and accuracy of macroeconomic regulation and control. The issuers of virtual money need to report their circulation and circulation to the central bank, and obey the unified management of the central bank at any time
5. Virtual currency, which is issued by non-financial entities outside the financial system, aims to obtain business opportunities and competitive advantages. It is a market behavior and will inevitably lead to competition among issuers. This kind of competition will proce unfair competition behavior or obtain competitive advantage through rent-seeking, which determines the need to regulate the market behavior of the market subject according to the laws and regulations
6. Virtuality: as a kind of approximate currency, virtual currency is virtual existence if it only exists in the virtual world and can purchase the virtual property in it; If it is linked with sovereign currency, it can exist in the real world and purchase real assets, then it is a virtual thing of sovereign currency. Virtual currency is actually a series of data files existing in the computer system. It has the meaning of virtual currency only after the issuers explain the system. Therefore, the existence form of virtual currency is virtual< In general, virtual currency can purchase the procts and services provided by the issuers, and it can also be exchanged with the issuers outside the scope of issuance at a certain rate to purchase the procts of the alliance. For procts outside the alliance, virtual currency has no value significance; Similarly, when virtual currency is only authorized to buy different procts in different sales cycles, the use of virtual currency has limited application in time and scope, unlike sovereign currency, which can be completely freely exchanged
8. Separability: virtual currency has no physical form and is a digital storage information. Unlike traditional paper currency, it needs to consider the balance relationship between the circulation of main currency and subsidiary currency and the proportion of various currency values. It can be split infinitely. For example, although the total number of dark coins is only 2300, each bitcoin can be split into eight directions of ten< Although virtual currency exists in the virtual world, the process of new technological revolution has closely linked the virtual world with reality, and the virtual world has become an important part of people's spiritual life. It can promote the development of real economy, for example, a large number of entertainment application projects provide people with rich spiritual wealth and real wealth, and more and more people invest in virtual currency, which represents a trend, and the more successful ones are bitcoin, Leyte coin and the new domestic King coin; On the contrary, money laundering, gambling and network theft in the virtual world will have a negative effect on the real economy.
(1) virtual currency based on entity
since ancient times, all "money" made of paper is called paper currency, and all countries in the world are actually paper currency. In Marx's time, paper money was only a symbol of metal money. The actual gold content of paper money was equal to the nominal gold content. When the nominal gold content was greater than the actual gold content, the price index of metal money would increase because of too many paper money. When it exceeded a certain limit, inflation would occur. Marx called these over issued bank notes without gold as guarantee virtual currency. In Keynesian era, paper money was the symbol of GDP. He defined the issue of paper money caused by making up the fiscal deficit as deficit money, and believed that the issue of paper deficit money could promote the development of proction to a certain extent, but only cause half inflation. Zhang chunjia's research in "Introction to virtual currency" also proves that paper money without precious metal and GDP guarantee will cause price rise, and this kind of money is called virtual currency
(2) virtual currency based on virtual
virtual currency is a new type of currency emerging at a certain stage of network social and economic development to meet the security and convenience needs of users. It represents the development direction of future currency existence form. It comes from the Internet, and acts as a general equivalent in the network society completely or partially. Virtual currency is a real currency with the basic attributes of currency, but it is virtual and depends on the network virtual environment. Virtual currency is born without borders, which makes it more liquid than traditional currency in the world. Virtual world corresponds to the real world. Through the exchange relationship between virtual currency and traditional currency, under certain conditions, specific virtual currency can buy physical goods, and traditional currency can also buy specific virtual goods< Second, the characteristics of virtual currency
1. Value: users get utility value by consuming the procts and services provided by operators. Virtual currency has value by providing exchange to meet the utility of consumers. The quantity of virtual currency measures the value of general goods. The issue essence of virtual currency is credit issue, which is the creditor's right of the holder to the issuer. To a certain extent, the value of this kind of claim is the right of claim
2. Virtual environment dependence. The existence of virtual currency is based on the virtual economic environment provided by the issuers and the sustainable operation of the issuers themselves. Otherwise, virtual currency has no significance.
3. Short sighted currency. As the highest price in the process of commodity exchange, the form of currency value can be regarded as the real currency. Because of the limitation of circulation scope, virtual currency can not be used as the general equivalent of all commodities; But in a certain range, it has the function of monetary value scale and circulation means. Therefore, it can be considered that virtual currency is similar to the form of money value, and it is a primary form of money, which is similar to money< The issue and circulation of virtual money is limited, but it will enlarge the money supply through the money multiplier effect, and affect the difficulty and accuracy of macroeconomic regulation and control. The issuers of virtual money need to report their circulation and circulation to the central bank, and obey the unified management of the central bank at any time
5. Virtual currency, which is issued by non-financial entities outside the financial system, aims to obtain business opportunities and competitive advantages. It is a market behavior and will inevitably lead to competition among issuers. This kind of competition will proce unfair competition behavior or obtain competitive advantage through rent-seeking, which determines the need to regulate the market behavior of the market subject according to the laws and regulations
6. Virtuality: as a kind of approximate currency, virtual currency is virtual existence if it only exists in the virtual world and can purchase the virtual property in it; If it is linked with sovereign currency, it can exist in the real world and purchase real assets, then it is a virtual thing of sovereign currency. Virtual currency is actually a series of data files existing in the computer system. It has the meaning of virtual currency only after the issuers explain the system. Therefore, the existence form of virtual currency is virtual< In general, virtual currency can purchase the procts and services provided by the issuers, and it can also be exchanged with the issuers outside the scope of issuance at a certain rate to purchase the procts of the alliance. For procts outside the alliance, virtual currency has no value significance; Similarly, when virtual currency is only authorized to buy different procts in different sales cycles, the use of virtual currency has limited application in time and scope, unlike sovereign currency, which can be completely freely exchanged
8. Separability: virtual currency has no physical form and is a digital storage information. Unlike traditional paper currency, it needs to consider the balance relationship between the circulation of main currency and subsidiary currency and the proportion of various currency values. It can be split infinitely. For example, although the total number of dark coins is only 2300, each bitcoin can be split into eight directions of ten< Although virtual currency exists in the virtual world, the process of new technological revolution has closely linked the virtual world with reality, and the virtual world has become an important part of people's spiritual life. It can promote the development of real economy, for example, a large number of entertainment application projects provide people with rich spiritual wealth and real wealth, and more and more people invest in virtual currency, which represents a trend, and the more successful ones are bitcoin, Leyte coin and the new domestic King coin; On the contrary, money laundering, gambling and network theft in the virtual world will have a negative effect on the real economy.
5. 1 Price stability risk
theoretically, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:
(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information The best digital currency trading platform is "currency exchange")
however, most network currency systems operate in the prepaid mode, that is, issuing network currency when changing in real currency and withdrawing currency when changing out real currency, which has limited impact. In the famous network currency scheme, the money supply is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, cash use and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, this largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions. In this case, the size of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issue of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the transmission of the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) based on the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
the impact of Internet money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of network currency on real currency, that is, with the increase of the total amount of network currency, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of currency multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the currency flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention
(2) financial stability risk
when the network virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price and fluctuation of virtual money depend on five factors:
(1) money supply and other actions taken by money issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more
(3) virtual communities with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures are easier to boost confidence, and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5) speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system, and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend or borrow funds, so they can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system. However, we should pay close attention to their development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system.
theoretically, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:
(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information The best digital currency trading platform is "currency exchange")
however, most network currency systems operate in the prepaid mode, that is, issuing network currency when changing in real currency and withdrawing currency when changing out real currency, which has limited impact. In the famous network currency scheme, the money supply is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, cash use and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, this largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions. In this case, the size of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issue of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the transmission of the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) based on the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
the impact of Internet money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of network currency on real currency, that is, with the increase of the total amount of network currency, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of currency multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the currency flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention
(2) financial stability risk
when the network virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price and fluctuation of virtual money depend on five factors:
(1) money supply and other actions taken by money issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more
(3) virtual communities with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures are easier to boost confidence, and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5) speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system, and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend or borrow funds, so they can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system. However, we should pay close attention to their development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system.
6. It seems that there is no other way to play, like bitcoin and so on, all use mining machine
7. Analysis of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank by Peng Yun, School of economics and management, Wuhan University source: Shanghai finance, 2006, issue 8 Abstract: the "two pillars" monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank ensures the continuity and systematicness of the monetary policy decision-making method, which is not only concive to stabilizing inflation expectations, but also to improving the efficiency of monetary policy decision-making, And it helps build public trust in the European Central Bank
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank has decided to adopt the al monetary policy with the goal of stability
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank has decided to adopt the al monetary policy with the goal of stability
8. The bus to the provincial stomatological hospital is No.15, No.3
9. The "two pillars" monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank ensures the continuity and systematicness of monetary policy decision-making methods, which is not only concive to stabilizing inflation expectations, but also helps to build public trust in the European Central Bank
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank has decided to adopt the two pillar strategy (namely economic analysis and monetary analysis) aiming at stability. The reason is that the ECB has not been established for a long time and the economic situation in the euro area is complex
key words: European Central Bank; Monetary policy strategy; Monetary policy transparency
first, the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank
1
although the Maastricht stipulates that the primary goal of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability in the euro area, the Treaty does not give a clear definition of price stability. In order to make the target more operational, the ECB management board (also known as the ECB monetary policy committee) gave a quantitative definition of price stability in 1998: the annual growth rate of the consumer price coordination index (HICP) of the whole euro area is no more than 2%, and the price stability can be maintained in the medium term. After nearly five years of monetary policy practice, the ECB management board revised the definition of price stability in 2003: in the medium term, the annual growth rate of CPI inflation is lower than but close to 2%< From this definition, we can see that: (1) the ECB's judgment of price stability is based on the price level of the whole euro zone in the medium term. There is a time lag in the impact of changes in monetary policy on prices, and the final extent of the impact is uncertain. Therefore, it is difficult for monetary policy to offset the impact of unexpected shocks on prices in the short term. Some short-term fluctuations in the inflation rate are inevitable, and monetary policy will not be adjusted e to short-term price or inflation changes in weeks or months, Monetary policy focuses on the medium term 2) The annual growth rate of HICP is lower than but close to 2%, which not only sets the upper limit for the inflation rate of HICP, but also points out that deflation and price stability are incompatible
giving a clear quantitative definition of price stability not only helps to increase the transparency of monetary policy, but also provides a standard for the public to supervise; It not only helps the public to better understand the monetary policy framework, but also more effectively guide the public's expectations of the price trend. It not only enhances the credibility of the single monetary policy, but also improves the effectiveness of the single monetary policy
2
economic analysis and monetary analysis constitute the monetary policy framework of the ECB. Within this framework, the ECB collects all kinds of information for the formulation and adjustment of monetary policy, and makes full use of all kinds of analysis tools to ensure that all relevant information will not be omitted, so as to ensure the robustness of monetary policy decision-making. The two pillar strategy is not only different from the monetary policy framework of inflation target, but also different from the traditional method of using money supply or exchange rate as "nominal anchor"< (1) economic analysis. It mainly refers to the analysis of short-term risks that affect price stability based on a large number of economic and financial data. The analysis is based on the following understanding: the change of price level in the short term is largely determined by the supply and demand of goods, services and factor markets. Therefore, the main variables concerned by the ECB are: changes in aggregate demand, aggregate output and labor market, changes in generalized price and cost index, changes in fiscal policy, conditions of capital market and labor market, changes in the balance of payments of the euro area, etc< (2) currency analysis. This paper focuses on the medium and long term analysis, which is based on the fact that the growth rate of money supply is closely related to the change of inflation rate in the medium and long term. The change of currency contains the information of future price change, so it is helpful to make an overall assessment of the risk of price stability. The ECB selects money supply indicators from a series of alternative indicators and publishes the reference value of M3 growth rate of broad money, which clearly shows its intention of monetary analysis to the public. A lot of empirical analysis shows that there is a stable relationship between m3 and price level and other macro variables. M3 also predicts future inflation, especially in the medium term<
the ECB will evaluate, repeatedly check and summarize the information obtained from the two column strategy to form an overall assessment of the degree and nature of economic fluctuation, the results of economic operation and the main risks of price stability, so as to provide a strong basis for the formulation of monetary policy. Through the information exchange framework, the public can understand the complex environment faced by the ECB in formulating monetary policy, know what factors the ECB has considered in formulating monetary policy, and what proceres it has adopted to make monetary policy decisions< 3. Pay attention to the communication function of monetary policy strategy
transparent monetary policy requires the central bank to provide the public and the market with decision-making related information, the proceres adopted in policy-making, the data used and the factors considered, and to effectively communicate with the public on the current economic situation. All of these can be carried out in an open, clear and timely state
the communication of ECB is faced with a multicultural environment. There are 12 different countries and 10 different languages in the euro area, which undoubtedly challenge the ECB's monetary policy communication. The ECB emphasizes effective communication and interaction with the public to ensure that the public can better understand the formulation process and basis of monetary policy, so as to improve the credibility of the central bank and the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. In order to make the public better understand the monetary policy, the ECB transmits the monetary policy information to the public through various channels:
(1) the press conference after the first meeting of the monetary policy committee every month is the most important way of communication for the ECB. The ECB was the first central bank to hold a press conference. At the press conference, the president of the ECB will introce to the public in detail the Management Council's analysis of the current economic situation and the risk assessment of price stability related to monetary policy, and inform the public of other issues and decisions discussed by the Management Council. Participants can also interact with the press spokesman. The written materials of the press conference will also be published on the ECB's website on the same day, so that these monetary policy information can be timely presented to the public
(2) the ECB publishes "Monthly Bulletin" every month, which publishes all statistical information and data on which monetary policy decisions are based to the public, and also provides experts' analysis articles on monetary policy. In addition, the ECB president reports to the economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament on the implementation of the ECB's monetary policy every quarter and answers relevant questions. The ECB also submits its annual report to the European Parliament every year
(3) the president, vice president and other members of the monetary policy committee of the ECB make full use of various opportunities to communicate with the public, elaborate the ECB's monetary policy strategy and analysis framework, and constantly improve the credibility of the ECB's monetary policy. Exchanges include regular media interviews, participation in global and regional economic and financial forums, and lectures at universities around the world. The speeches and speeches of members of the monetary policy committee, the analytical articles of researchers, and the policy research results of wide public concern can be found on the website of the ECB and its published papers and special issues< 4. Pay attention to the research function of the central bank
the objective of ECB economic research is to provide strong theoretical and empirical support for monetary policy decision-making on the one hand, and to better serve the communication between ECB and the public and the market on the other hand<
the economic research of ECB is carried out in various forms: working paper mainly encourages the research on the relevant issues of ECB monetary policy, including not only the phased achievements of ECB researchers, but also the research on monetary policy by some experts and scholars in academic circles. These articles can be obtained free of charge on the ECB website, which is very helpful for the public to understand the ECB's monetary policy. At the same time, ECB also uses a large number of macroeconomic models to analyze and forecast the euro area economy and different countries in the euro area, so as to provide more reliable forecast information for monetary policy decision-making. In view of the problems of European capital market and financial integration, the economic cycle change of euro area and so on, ECB has established an extensive research network. In addition, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve hold international monetary policy forums in turn to encourage discussion of monetary policy related issues from a global perspective< Second, the enlightenment to the operation of China's monetary policy
1. Further improve the independence of China's central bank
enhancing the independence of the central bank is the basic direction of the reform of monetary control mechanism in various countries. Practice has proved that the independence of the central bank has a great influence on its monetary policy operation. The central bank with strong independence has achieved good results in formulating and implementing monetary policy and curbing inflation
the Maryo gives the ECB the independence of monetary policy objectives, and the ECB also has the independence of tools, finance and personnel, so it provides the institutional guarantee for the ECB to carry out monetary policy operation independently< After more than 10 years of development, the independence of the people's Bank of China has been greatly improved, but it is still restricted by many factors. From the perspective of goal independence, although the law of the people's Bank of China clearly stipulates that "the goal of monetary policy is to maintain the stability of currency value and promote economic growth", China's monetary policy is still subject to multi-objective constraints: price stability, increasing employment, promoting economic growth, maintaining the stability of RMB exchange rate, resolving financial risks and so on. From the perspective of operational independence, there are also some constraints, such as the underdeveloped financial market, the small choice of monetary policy tools, the excessive dependence of monetary policy on the transmission of state-owned commercial banks and so on
there is a conflict between multiple objectives, which makes the monetary policy decision-making of the central bank quite difficult. In the process of economic transition, the multi-objective constraints of monetary policy will exist for a long time, so it is more difficult to improve the independence of objectives than operation. Under the current institutional arrangement, we should further improve the operational independence of the central bank, vigorously develop the financial market, especially the money market, actively promote the marketization of interest rates, and constantly improve the marketization of monetary policy tools, operational targets and intermediary target variables, so as to make the monetary policy operation of the people's Bank of China more flexible and forward-looking, To create conditions for the preventive operation of the people's Bank of China's monetary policy< 2. Establish a more flexible monetary policy framework as soon as possible
there is a common defect in using instrumental variables such as interest rate, exchange rate or money supply as intermediary targets, that is, the flexibility of monetary policy is poor. Because of this, the vast majority of countries do not simply restore the interest rate target after abandoning the money supply target, but more and more use the inflation target as a non instrumental variable target. That is to say, monetary policy operation directly focuses on the inflation rate, and takes other important economic variables such as money supply, interest rate, economic prosperity index and so on as monitoring indicators
after examining the monetary policy strategies adopted or being adopted by some other central banks, the European Central Bank has decided to adopt the two pillar strategy (namely economic analysis and monetary analysis) aiming at stability. The reason is that the ECB has not been established for a long time and the economic situation in the euro area is complex
10. Organizational structure: the European Central Bank has the legal personality. It can deal with its movable and immovable properties in each member state with an independent legal personality and participate in relevant legal affairs. The decision-making bodies of the European Central Bank are the management committee and the Executive Committee, which are composed of all members of the Executive Committee and the governors of the central banks of the member countries participating in the euro area. The management committee adopts the system of one person, one vote, and generally adopts a simple majority. When there is an equal number of affirmative and negative votes, the chairman of the Management Committee (who shall be the governor of eurobank) may cast a decisive vote, and the management committee shall meet at least 10 times a year. The executive committee consists of the president, vice president and four other members of the European Central Bank. Only citizens of Member States may serve as executive directors. These personnel must be recognized, have rich professional experience in monetary and banking affairs, be proposed by the European Commission in consultation with the European Parliament and the Governing Committee of the European Central Bank, and be appointed by consensus at the summit of Member States. The voting of the executive committee adopts one person one vote system. In the absence of special provisions, a simple majority is implemented. The capital of the European Central Bank is 5 billion euros, and the central banks of the member states are the only subscribers and holders. The amount of capital subscription is determined on the basis of the respective proportions of GDP and population of each member country in the EU. The amount of capital contributed by each member country should not exceed its share. All member countries of the euro area have subscribed, while the UK, Denmark, Sweden and Greece have only contributed 5% of their share. The shares subscribed by each member state shall be adjusted once every five years, and shall take effect in the next year after the adjustment. Obviously, its organizational structure is similar to that of the US Federal Reserve System, and the central banks of EU member states are similar to the 12 Federal Reserve Banks in the US Federal Reserve. Both of them belong to the al central bank system. The local level institutions and the central level exercise their powers respectively, and the two levels of central banks are relatively independent. The term of office of the governor of the Central Bank of a member state shall be at least five years; Members of the Executive Committee shall be appointed for a minimum term of eight years and shall not be re elected; They can only be removed when they are unable to perform their ties or seriously study; The European Court of justice has jurisdiction over disputes over the appointment and removal of posts. The management committee is the highest decision-making body of the European Central Bank. It is responsible for formulating monetary policy of the euro area, making decisions on intermediary targets, guiding interest rates and statutory reserves related to monetary policy, and determining action guidelines for its implementation. The management committee consists of two parts: six members of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank and 12 central bank governors of the member countries of the euro zone. The term of office of the governor of the Central Bank of a member state shall not be less than five years. Each member of the management committee has one vote. If the votes of both sides are equal, the president of the European Central Bank has one vote. At least two-thirds of the members of the management committee should vote. If this minimum requirement is not met, the president of the European central bank can call a special meeting to make a decision. Responsible for the financial and monetary policy of the euro area.
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