The influence of virtual currency
1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions
In theory, if the existence of network currency affects the demand for the central bank's liabilities, and then interferes with the central bank's open market operation, it will have an impact on a country's monetary policy and price stability. However, from a practical point of view, the premise of network currency affecting price stability includes the following three aspects:(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information
However,however, most Internet money systems operate in prepaid mode, that is, issuing Internet money when the real money is exchanged in and withdrawing money when the real money is exchanged out. In the famous network currency scheme, the supply of money is stable and the supply is small, but we still need to be vigilant whether it can ensure that the money supply will maintain a stable level in the long run, and the impact of the change of exchange rate between network currency and real currency
(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear
as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control
(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP
The influence of network money on real money supply depends on two aspects: one is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; the other is the substitution effect of virtual economy on real economy; The second is the crowding out effect of Internet money on real money, that is, with the increase of the total amount of Internet money, the amount of cash held by the public in real life decreases, resulting in the decrease of cash / deposit ratio and the increase of money multiplier. In reality, the network virtual currency scheme will not affect the price stability at this stage, and the money flow speed will not be significantly affected in the short and medium term. However, the interaction between network currency and real economy deserves attention (2) financial stability risk when the virtual currency scheme operates outside the banking system, the most important factor of financial instability lies in its connection with the real economy, namely exchange rate and exchange market. Obviously, the closed network currency scheme and the one-way flow network currency scheme are not affected, so we should focus on the two-way flow network currency scheme. The value of two-way network currency depends on the level of money supply and demand in the exchange market. A big difference between network currency and real currency is that the network currency scheme is not based on the country or currency region, and the influence of virtual economy intensity, trade or proction capacity on its exchange rate is limited. The price of virtual money and its fluctuation depend on five factors:(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market
(2) the network currency scheme shows network externality, and its monetary value depends on the number of users and merchants. As the number of consumers and businesses increases, their monetary value will increase accordingly. In addition, the exchange rate of network currency with small transaction volume fluctuates more(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger
(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency
(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system
in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities
2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism
in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks
supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is very easy to be used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or
legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect the rights and interests of consumers and financial stability, and inhibit the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities
at present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities (5) reputation risk of monetary authority the reputation of Monetary Authority (central bank) is the key factor to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy. The public's trust in fiat money is closely related to the image of the central bank, which pays close attention to its reputation. The ECB defines reputation risk as the risk of deterioration of reputation, credit or public image. As the network currency scheme is related to money and payment, it is generally believed that it belongs to the responsibility of the central bank, so we should be alert to the reputation risk it may bring to the central bank. However, in the case of small scale, the impact of the failure of the network currency scheme is limited, but its high volatility and instability also aggravate the possibility of failure and attract extensive media coverage. If the network currency is allowed to develop continuously without
regulation, the central bank may be considered as dereliction of ty and affect its reputation (6) the risk of investors' loss
for exchange value, the public has a higher recognition of the investment value of network virtual currency, and it is investment based transactions that accelerate the formation of virtual currency market. Like other investment markets, participants in virtual money market will also face potential losses caused by market risk, credit risk and policy risk. Take bitcoin as an example: from 2009 to early 2010, bitcoin was worthless; In the summer of 2010, bitcoin trading began to enter the golden
period. As the supply was far less than the demand, the value of online trading began to rise. In early November, bitcoin was silent at 29 cents for many days, and then jumped to 36 cents; In February 2011, bitcoin continued to appreciate, and its exchange rate with us dollar
reached 1:1; In 2013, the price of bitcoin achieved a "Big Bang" growth, and hit US $1242 on November 29, 2013, surpassing the gold price of US $1241.98/ounce in the same period. Fierce price fluctuations make market participants face huge speculative risks. Unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, the depth of bitcoin market is insufficient, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' buying and selling behavior, and also easily manipulated by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin, Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude, and Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities
as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on the price of bitcoin, especially in the short term
virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />
model risk
virtual money is not real money, there is no central bank behind the total control and macro-control, its value depends entirely on its supply. For example, according to Nakamoto's algorithm, the final supply of bitcoin is 21 million, which will not be increased. However, if its model is found to be defective, resulting in a massive increase in money supply, the current trading platform and investors will lose their money
many algorithm enthusiasts have carried out repeated dection, and so far have not found the existence of model defects
risk possibility: 1
risk impact degree: 5
market depth risk
at present, the value chain of virtual currency is mainly composed of miners and traders, with less money supply and fewer market participants. Compared with other mature markets, bitcoin trading is not active and vulnerable to the impact of large capital inflow and outflow, resulting in sharp rise and fall. In addition, market depth risk will also lead to market manipulation risk and liquidity risk
platform risk
at present, many virtual currency platforms need to deposit funds into the platform to buy or sell. In order to attract investors, some platforms often offer free service charge. However, some free platforms are risky. For example, in October 2013, a bitcoin trading platform registered in Hong Kong suddenly ran away on the pretext of "being attacked by hackers", and all its executives disappeared. Later, it was estimated that the incident took away about 30 million yuan
should
Strategy: 1. After determining whether to invest in virtual currency and what kind of virtual currency to invest in, investors should investigate and screen the platform, not be affected by the small profits of handling charges, and choose a strong and reputable platform for trading behavior; 2. Investors should pay attention to all kinds of information of their investment platform and observe their reputation changes; 3. Regulators should bring the trading platform of virtual currency into the scope of supervision and require it to
pay reserve and margin to prevent such moral hazard
risk possibility: 1
risk influence degree: 4
circulation risk
goods
one of the basic functions of currency is to continuously use it as a means of purchase in the process of commodity circulation to realize the price of goods. So far, only a few businesses accept virtual currency as a means of payment for circulation. Or
in other words, most of the participants in the current virtual currency investment are for the purpose of earning the price difference, while only a small part of them are for the purpose of early storage as the future currency
coping strategies: the existing participants of virtual currency should actively recommend this category to the government and the public, and increase the number of businesses willing to accept virtual currency as a means of payment in the market
risk possibility: 4
risk impact degree: 3
legal subject risk
on December 5, 2013, the people's Bank of China, together with the Ministry of instry and information technology, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued the notice on prevention of bitcoin risk, claiming that bitcoin should be a specific virtual business proct in nature, It does not have the same legal status as currency and cannot and should not be used as currency in the market. According to Circular No. 21 of 2014 issued by the IRS, bitcoin and other virtual currencies will be regarded as property rather than a currency. In a word, there is still a long way to go to establish the legal subject status of virtual currency
coping strategies: the existing participants of virtual currency should actively influence the government and regulatory authorities to establish the legal subject status of virtual currency as soon as possible
risk possibility: 5
risk impact degree: 3
the first category is familiar game currency
since the Internet has established a portal and community to realize the game networking, there has been a "financial market" for virtual currency, where players can trade game currency
the second type is the special currency issued by the portal website or instant messaging service provider, which is used to purchase the services in the website. The most widely used is Tencent's q-coin, which can be used to purchase membership, QQ show and other value-added services
the third kind of virtual currency on the Internet, such as bitcoin (BTC), Wright currency (LTC), etc. It is mainly used for Internet financial investment, and can also be directly used in daily life as a new currency
from the above classification, we can see that the impact of different types of virtual currency on our economic life is divided into fields and groups. Mainly in the field of Internet game crowd and network service users are most affected
the functions derived from bitcoin and directly used in daily life have been declared illegal by the state financial regulatory authorities. The impact on people's lives is invisible.
the impact of virtual currency on e-commerce is as follows:
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the impact of virtual currency on the financial system
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the network security of virtual currency
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inflation in the virtual world
the definition of traditional currency
traditional currency, that is, currency in the general sense, refers to the paper money and subsidiary currency issued by the central bank, which includes cash and deposits in circulation. Traditional currency has the functions of value scale, circulation means, payment means and storage means< (2) the definition and characteristics of virtual currency, also known as network currency, digital currency and electronic currency, is based on electronic information network, with commercial electronic machines and various transaction cards as the media, with electronic computer technology and communication technology as the means, and stored in the bank's computer system in the form of electronic data, And through the computer network system in the form of electronic information transmission to achieve circulation and payment function of money, is a new payment tool in the late 1990s
virtual currency is a currency symbol with no value of its own, and it is invisible. The exchange between the buyer and the seller is only reflected in the increase and decrease of the deposit balance in the bank account; At any time in any place that the network or device can cover, both parties can complete the transaction as long as there is exchange behavior; Virtual currency has the function of transcending time, space and region, which has greatly improved the speed and efficiency of money media transactions, greatly reced transaction costs, and promoted the process of globalization of capital flow and financial market integration. Virtual currency is a kind of non-standard currency, which has no geographical currency unit
the difference and connection between virtual currency and traditional currency
virtual currency combines cash in circulation with deposit organically by using electronic system. It has the characteristics of deposit in traditional currency, cash and non cash conversion and information display. In the scope of use, it is the same as the traditional currency, mainly used for small transactions; In commodity transaction payment, it also has the characteristics of autonomy of transaction behavior, consistency of transaction conditions, independence of transaction mode and sustainability of transaction process.