The risk of virtual currency

1、 Common analysis of virtual currency (1) bitcoin solution is designed and created by Japanese programmer Nakamoto (alias) in 2009, and it is the most successful and controversial network currency at present. Bitcoin scheme is based on P2P network architecture, which has been operating in the world, and can be used for all kinds of virtual and real goods and services transactions

(1) from the analysis of the impact on the amount of money, although it is difficult to analyze the extent to which the network currency scheme creates money in the case of lack of information

(2) from the analysis of the impact on the speed of money circulation, the use of cash and money statistics, the impact of the technological innovation brought by the network currency scheme on the speed of money circulation is not clear

as an Internet instry, it largely depends on the number of active internet currency scheme users. If the network currency is widely accepted, it will have a substitution effect on the real currency of the central bank, thus recing the use of cash in transactions
in this case, the scale of the central bank's balance sheet will be reced, and its ability to influence short-term interest rates will also be weakened. The central bank will need to fight against risks through ways such as setting minimum reserves for cyber currencies. Substitution effect will aggravate the difficulty of monetary statistics and affect the relationship between monetary statistics and inflation, which is not concive to the realization of long-term price stability. In addition, the issuance of network currency outside the central bank and the expansion of virtual credit will have an impact on the central bank's interest rate decision in the economy and weaken the central bank's monetary control

(3) from the analysis of the interaction between network currency and real economy, network currency can act as a real commodity trading medium and have an impact on real GDP

(1) money supply and other actions taken by currency issuers. For example: to achieve a fixed or semi fixed exchange rate by intervening in the market

(3) the virtual community with clear and transparent policies and advanced security measures is easier to boost confidence and the currency is stronger

(4) the reputation of network currency issuers in fulfilling their commitments. There is no "lender of last resort" in the virtual community, and the trust gained by the issuer is crucial to the exchange rate of internet currency

(5)
speculation on the future value of Internet money and cyber attacks on virtual communities. Due to the immaturity of the system, low trading, speculative activities and network attacks, the two-way network currency scheme is inherently unstable
qualitative. At present, the trading volume of these network currencies is small and the correlation with the real economy is low, so the stability of the financial system will not be affected. However, if Internet money becomes a substitute for traditional money in the future, it will bring instability to the financial system and even distort the relative prices of goods and services. The impact of network currency system on the financial system largely depends on the number of active users and the number of merchants who are willing to accept virtual currency for real transactions. In addition, virtual currency has only exchange value and no use value. Generally, network currency is not based on assets with intrinsic value and is not supported by central bank credit. At present, these network monetary systems are not allowed to lend
or borrow funds, so it can not pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, but we should pay close attention to its development. If there is any change in the future, it will undoubtedly have an impact on the financial system

in a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks are largely determined by the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity, so it is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause
or transmit shocks in the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and has no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. However, in the network virtual currency scheme
it is impossible to use network currency as settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default, and the security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

virtual currency is always inferior to real currency< br />

Yin Zhentao, deputy director of the law and Finance Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that digital currency faces two risks. The first is the technical level. Digital currency relies on blockchain technology and a system, which will make it suffer from security impact, such as hacker attacks on computer systems. We have seen many practical problems in this process

Zhao Zhanzhan, a special researcher of intellectual property research center of China University of political science and law, believes that digital currency has anonymity, quickness and irrevocability. In addition, bitcoin and other digital currencies have high circulation in the world, so many criminals use digital currency as a new money laundering channel. Moreover, there are many different ways to realize money laundering through digital currency. Generally speaking, the probability of new money laundering being found and investigated is lower than before. Many countries have no effective means and technology to combat money laundering through digital currency. These factors lead to criminals prefer this way of money laundering

As a proct of e-commerce, virtual currency is playing a more and more important role, and it is more and more connected with the real world. However, with the growth of virtual currency, the relevant laws and regulations are lagging behind, which has laid many hidden dangers. Since 2004, the discussion on whether virtual currency represented by Q currency will impact RMB has been concerned by all parties. But officials have not been clear about this. The trading mode of virtual currency also expanded rapidly. A series of events triggered the attention of the community to the virtual currency. People have expressed their views on it. Some people think that virtual currency will have an impact on RMB, so we should take compulsory measures to prohibit the issuance of virtual currency; Some people hold a reserved attitude that virtual currency will not have an impact on RMB and should not stifle the development vitality of commercial organizations too early. Zhang Jie of Huawei group thinks so
with the continuous progress of technology, electronic payment (including electronic money) not only changes people's payment habits, but also imperceptibly changes people's consumption habits and promotes the expansion of consumer credit. It is necessary to pay close attention to the innovation of the form, the evolution of the nature, the difference of the operation mode and the possible impact on the credit risk and moral hazard of this new thing, and properly supervise it. But the more important thing is to give the market main body corresponding development space, avoid strangling the development vitality of the corresponding business organization in the early stage of market development. Therefore, the best way to treat e-money is to observe its changes and strengthen research. In the face of such remarks as "q-coin impacts the RMB financial market", we need to discuss them in the context of scientific and technological progress. The key to understand the problem is how to design relevant policies and encourage the development of electronic payment instruments such as electronic money, rather than the harm of speculative virtual money and electronic money. We call for strengthening supervision

It is difficult to avoid the typical risks related to the payment system. In a specific virtual community, virtual currency payment activities have evolved into a "real" payment system, facing the typical risks related to the payment system: credit risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and legal risk. The nature, scale and ration of these risks largely depend on the design of the system or the degree of lack of liquidity. It is difficult for the network virtual currency scheme to avoid or control these risks. According to the core principles of important payment system (CP) issued by the bank for International Settlements (BIS), the network virtual currency scheme does not conform to most of the contents of CP, and does not belong to the systemically important payment system. Therefore, it will not cause or transmit shocks to the global financial system. At present, there is no systematic risk in the network currency system outside these virtual communities

2. Lack of corresponding supervision and protection mechanism

in the real economy, the central bank plays the role of lender of last resort and there is no default risk, so it can take actions in the case of payment crisis or unpredictable liquidity shortage to avoid chain reaction. In the network virtual currency scheme, network currency is not the settlement asset. Because network currency simply depends on the credibility of the issuer, it can not be widely accepted as a means of payment, so network currency can not be regarded as a safe currency. In addition, commercial banks are required to accept prudential supervision, which reces the possibility of default. The security of money in commercial bank accounts is higher than that of network currency. A fundamental risk of network currency is that the settlement institution of network currency scheme is not subject to any supervision, no institution is responsible for its behavior, and there is no investor / depositor protection mechanism, which causes the user to bear all the risks

(4) risk of absence of supervision generally speaking, supervision lags behind the development of science and technology. The network virtual currency program was established in the late 1990s, but it was not until 2006 that some government agencies in the United States began to analyze these programs. Due to the lack of supervision and the anonymity, invisibility and difficulty in tracking of its transactions, the network virtual currency scheme is easily used by terrorist activities, fraud, money laundering and other illegal activities. At present, many government departments in many countries are considering whether to recognize or legalize these virtual schemes and bring them into the scope of supervision, so as to support the innovation of currency and payment forms, protect consumers' rights and interests and financial stability, and restrain the use of virtual currency schemes to engage in criminal activities. At present, the uncertainty of the legal status of the virtual currency scheme may also bring challenges to the government authorities

unlike mature capital markets such as stocks and bonds, bitcoin market is not deep enough, and it is mainly held in the hands of large investors with low degree of diversification. Bitcoin price is easily affected by large investors' trading behavior and controlled by speculators. At the same time, different countries have different attitudes towards bitcoin. Germany, the United States and other countries hold an open and supportive attitude. Thailand, Brazil and other countries regard bitcoin related activities as illegal. Every country's attitude and measures will have a significant impact on its price, especially in the short term

According to reports, hot concepts such as "original stocks, charity, consumer rebate, virtual currency" and "blockchain, crowdfunding" are often used as gimmicks by pyramid schemes. In 2017, in the cross-border network pyramid selling case of "Vicat" detected by Zhuzhou Public Security Bureau in Hunan Province, "Vicat" played with the concept of "virtual currency"

in September 2017, seven ministries and commissions, including the people's Bank of China, jointly issued an announcement, stressing that no organization or indivial may illegally engage in token issuance and financing activities. All banking institutions and non bank payment institutions shall not carry out business related to token issuance and financing transactions. The people's Bank of China pointed out in the relevant risk warning that it has not issued legal "digital currency", nor has it authorized any institution or enterprise to issue legal "digital currency". The so-called "digital currency" in the market are all non legal "digital currency". The so-called "digital currency" launched by some institutions and enterprises or the promotion of the central bank's issuance of "digital currency" are suspected of fraud or pyramid selling. Source: Legal Daily

On September 4, the people's Bank of China and other seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the announcement on preventing the financing risk of token issuance, which clearly regulated the relevant behaviors

after the regulatory authorities made clear their attitude, although bitcoin China, huocoin.com and other "virtual currency" operators have successively taken restrictive measures on the trading platform, the risk of "virtual currency" speculation is still worthy of high vigilance

compared with the traditional financial procts and activities, "virtual currency" does not have an objective value reference at present, and the financial activities based on "virtual currency" are far away from the regulatory system for a long time, so the related financial activities are easy to fall into the problems of "expected pricing" and "emotional pricing". In this context, the "virtual currency" may not only hide the grey transaction or even the black transaction, but also cause all kinds of risks, "crowd out" the real financial innovation, which is not concive to the sustainable and healthy development of Internet finance

As a proct of e-commerce, virtual currency is playing a more and more important role, and it is more and more connected with the real world. However, with the growth of virtual currency, the relevant laws and regulations are lagging behind, which has laid many hidden dangers

1. fraud

2. impact on financial system

3. network security problems

   
   

4. solutions

   with the continuous progress of technology, electronic payment (including electronic money) is changing people's payment habits, but also changing people's consumption habits, promoting the expansion of consumer credit. It is necessary to pay close attention to the innovation of the form, the evolution of the nature, the difference of the operation mode and the possible impact on the credit risk and moral hazard of this new thing, and properly supervise it. But the more important thing is to give the market main body corresponding development space, avoid strangling the development vitality of the corresponding business organization in the early stage of market development. Therefore, the best way to treat e-money is to observe its changes and strengthen research. In the face of such remarks as "q-coin impacts the RMB financial market", we need to discuss them in the context of scientific and technological progress. The key to understand the problem is how to design relevant policies and encourage the development of electronic payment instruments such as electronic money, rather than the harm of speculative virtual money and electronic money. We call for strengthening supervision