The relationship between Ethereum and gold price
The US dollar is the pillar of the current international monetary system. Both the US dollar and gold are the most important reserve assets. The strength and stability of the US dollar weaken the status of gold as a reserve asset and a hedge function. The GDP of the United States still accounts for more than 1 / 4 of the world's GDP, and the total foreign trade volume ranks first in the world. The world economy is deeply affected, and the gold price is obviously in inverse proportion to the quality of the world economy. The world gold market is usually priced in US dollars, so the depreciation of the US dollar is bound to lead to the rise of the gold price
U.S. dollar and oil: as the largest oil consumer and net importer in the world, rising oil prices will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the U.S. economy and lead to fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the U.S. dollar. Historically, all previous oil crises have caused the recession of the U.S. economy and are the main reason for the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the U.S. dollar
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precautions:
1. The rise of oil price will increase the cost of means of proction and living, which will lead to the rise of inflation, and inflation will increase the demand for nominal money, which will lead to the rise of domestic credit demand, and then attract more foreign capital into the United States
The inflow of foreign capital will lead to the rise of US dollar exchange rate. At the same time, the U.S. domestic monetary policy often strengthens the appreciation process of the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve often adopts tightening monetary policies such as raising interest rates at the early stage of the rise of oil prices to control inflation. In this way, the rise of interest rates will attract more foreign capital inflows, resulting in the rise of the nominal exchange rate of the U.S. dollar3. The rise of oil price makes the trade surplus of oil exporting countries, and the foreign exchange reserves mainly in US dollars increase, resulting in the so-called petrodollars. These petrodollars will enter the international financial market to buy a large number of US dollar assets out of the need of pursuing profits, and then lead to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of US dollar
The continuous rise of oil price will lead to the recession of the world economy and make the balance of payments of oil importing countries uncertain. Therefore, these countries have increased the dollar asset ratio in their foreign exchange reserves to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, which further increases the demand for us dollars and leads to the rise of the nominal exchange rate of US dollarsreference source: Network gold
reference source: Network US dollar
reference source: Network crude oil price
The strength of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market is an important factor affecting the price of gold market. The mechanism between us dollar and international gold price is as follows:
1. Gold and US dollar foreign exchange are important financial asset instruments that people choose to invest, each with different characteristics. In essence, the US dollar is an disrespectful credit currency and debt financial asset. In the era of credit, gold is undoubtedly a kind of financial asset and one of the few non debt financial assets
2. The US dollar is internationally recognized as a hard currency. Gold has not been monetized for more than 30 years, and it has become the most reliable international gold reserve. There is a trade-off between the two, which means the dollar will weaken and the price of gold will rise The gold market in the world is generally priced in US dollars. When the U.S. dollar depreciates, the price of gold in other currencies also shows a decline, because the U.S. dollar price of gold has not changed or has little change, thus stimulating non-U.S. housing. The increase of gold demand eventually leads to the rise of international gold price The U.S. GDP accounts for 1 / 4 of the world's GDP, foreign trade ranks first in the world, and the world economy is deeply affected by it. The price of gold is inversely proportional to the quality of the world economy. Therefore, the US economy and the US dollar exchange rate have a direct impact on the international gold market. Price it can be seen that the strength of the US dollar is basically inversely related to the international gold price, and the former is the relationship between the latter's influence and influence, decision and decision. The premise of US dollar exchange rate and gold price mechanism the normal mechanism of interaction between us dollar exchange rate and gold price is restricted by some preconditions
this premise is an important factor affecting the gold price, including the stability of the international geopolitical situation, the stability of the international economic and financial situation, and the absence of major turbulence. Only when the International Geopolitics, international economic situation and international financial situation are relatively stable
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exchange rate system
also known as exchange rate arrangement: it is a system commonly used by countries to determine the exchange rate of their own currency and other currencies. It is a systematic regulation made by various countries or the international community on the principles, methods, methods and institutions for determining, maintaining, adjusting and managing exchange rates. The exchange rate system has a great influence on the exchange rate decisions of various countries
According to the fluctuation of exchange rate, exchange rate system can be divided into fixed exchange rate system and floating exchange rate systemfixed exchange rate system is a kind of exchange rate system which takes the base currency itself or the legal gold content as the benchmark to determine the exchange rate and the exchange rate is relatively stable. There are different fixed exchange rate systems under different monetary systems
floating exchange rate system refers to an exchange rate system in which a country does not stipulate the gold parity between the local currency and foreign currency and the boundary of exchange rate fluctuation, and the monetary authority no longer undertakes the obligation of maintaining the boundary of exchange rate fluctuation, and the exchange rate floats up and down freely with the change of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. This system has existed for a long time in history, but its real popularity came after the collapse of the fixed exchange rate system centered on US dollar in 1972
international monetary system, international gold standard, gold exchange standard, Bretton Woods system, Triffin Dilemma, special drawing rights, Jamaica monetary system, European monetary system, European monetary exchange rate mechanism, fixed exchange rate, floating exchange rate, adjustable fixed exchange rate, managed floating exchange rate, linked exchange rate, dollarization, exchange rate target zone
International Monetary System: refers to the principles, measures and organizations established by governments to play the role of world currency in the international scope in order to meet the needs of international trade and international payment. It is the sum of the international monetary system, international financial institutions and the international monetary order formed by custom and historical evolution
international gold standard: it is a monetary system in which gold of a certain weight and quality is used as the base currency and a fixed exchange relationship between various currencies and gold in circulation is established. Its characteristics are: bank notes can be freely exchanged for gold coins; Gold coins can be cast freely; Gold can be exported and imported freely; All the money reserves are in gold; Gold is used in international settlement
The Bretton Woods system is a man-made international monetary system, the core content of which is that the US dollar is linked to gold and the currencies of various countries are linked to the US dollar Triffin's dilemma: in order to meet the needs of world economic growth for the growth of international means of payment and reserve currency, the supply of US dollar should continue to grow; The increasing supply of US dollars will make it increasingly difficult to maintain the convertibility between US dollars and gold. This dilemma of US dollar points out the inherent instability of Bretton Woods system and the inevitability of crisis Jamaica agreement: the foundation for the formation of a new international monetary system, whose core ideas are: diversification of exchange rate arrangements, non monetization of gold, diversification of international reserves and diversification of balance of payments adjustment mechanism Fixed exchange rate system: a country's government sets the exchange ratio between its own currency and foreign currency in legal form, and limits the fluctuation of exchange rate to a small rangefloating exchange rate system: it refers to the exchange rate that is not restricted by parity, and is mainly based on market supply and demand, and is adjusted by the market mechanism. The government does not specify the exchange ratio between domestic currency and foreign currency, nor does it limit the fluctuation range of exchange rate
adjustable pegging exchange rate system: it refers to the legal parity between the domestic currency and a major foreign currency and the range of allowed exchange rate fluctuation obtained by the government's pre-determined, public commitment and intervention in the market. However, the legal parity can be adjusted regularly to correct the imbalance of international payments by devaluation or appreciation of currency, This is an international exchange rate system based on the Bretton Woods system
managed floating exchange rate: the long-term trend of exchange rate is not affected by government management, but determined by market supply and demand, but the short-term fluctuation of exchange rate is affected by the intervention of monetary authorities; Also known as dirty floating
source of reference:
network exchange rate
Network gold
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