How to monitor digital currency
warm tips: the above explanations are for reference only, without any suggestions. There are risks in entering the market, so investment should be cautious. Before making any investment, you should make sure that you fully understand the nature of the investment and the risks involved in the proct. After a detailed understanding and careful evaluation of the proct, you can judge whether to participate in the transaction
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in another case, that is, under special circumstances, when the delivery date is approaching, some institutions will force positions on some procts. Although it is a small probability, once it happens, it will be dead everywhere.
In order to defend the peso, which has been under great devaluation pressure since December last year, the Central Bank of Argentina raised interest rates three times in a row from April 27 to May 4, raising the benchmark interest rate from 27.25% to 40%
At present, Argentina has asked for financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help curb the decline of the peso for five consecutive months. IMF president Lagarde said in a public statement in Washington on the 8th that the IMF and the Argentine government have started to work together to strengthen Argentina's economy, and these measures will be implemented in the short term At the beginning of the 20th century, Argentina's economy once ranked among the top ten in the world. What's wrong with Argentina's economy today Since December last year, the Argentine Peso has been under the pressure of devaluation, and the cumulative decline of the peso against the US dollar once reached more than 15%in the face of the sudden sharp depreciation of the peso, in order to stabilize investors' confidence and the mood of domestic residents, the Central Bank of Argentina raised interest rates for three consecutive times in eight days: on April 27, it raised interest rates by 300 basis points, raising the benchmark interest rate from 27.25% to 30.25%; On May 3, the Central Bank of Argentina raised interest rates again by 300 basis points, and the benchmark interest rate has reached 33.25%; In order to curb the peso's decline in the foreign exchange market, the Central Bank of Argentina directly raised the benchmark interest rate to 40% on May 4
In line with the action of the central bank, the Argentine government has reced its fiscal deficit target from 3.2% of GDP to 2.7% this year. So far, the peso has a little breathing space in the foreign exchange marketMartin, chairman of Argentina E3 engineering company, told China first finance and economics that the fluctuation is the adjustment of the market exchange rate by the Central Bank of Argentina
he explained that when Argentina's president Mauricio Macri came to power at the end of 2015, Argentina's last government left an inflation rate of about 28%. Although the Macri government introced a series of measures to curb inflation, it had little effect, because the Macri government relied on borrowing and issuing excess currency to solve the problem, and the growth of the real economy was small. From 2017 to 2018, the interest rate of local currency short-term bonds of the central bank was about 26% - 28%. However, the exchange rate of Peso against the US dollar remained relatively stable, resulting in the lag of Peso exchange rate and arbitrage space for financial institutions. In addition, in April this year, the Afghan government began to levy a financial income tax ranging from 5% to 15% on foreign financial investors, which was also affected by the rise of US bond interest rate, As a result, a large number of funds came out at the end of April and the beginning of May after making profits, which led to the sharp fluctuation of Arab exchange rate market last week
Dr. Shi peiran of the Latin American Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences specifically analyzed the multiple factors of the peso exchange rate fluctuation to the first financial reporter
he believes that from the perspective of internal factors, Argentina's economy has shown a moderate recovery in recent years after the Macri government took power. After Macri came to power, he released the strict foreign exchange control of the former government and adopted a series of market-oriented measures. Therefore, since 2016, the international market has generally been optimistic about Argentina's economy, which is reflected in the relatively stable exchange rate of Peso against the US dollar and the rising price of Argentine government bonds in the international market
however, in January 2018, the Central Bank of Argentina raised the inflation target for 2018. Meanwhile, the implementation of the government budget in 2017 also shows that the target of recing expenditure and deficit of the Argentine government has not met the expectation, which is a smell of risk for investors
Shi peiran added that if it is other countries, the combination of the two will cause some degree of exchange rate fluctuations, but the scale is difficult to compare with Argentina. Because Argentina is famous for its currency devaluation, the large-scale currency crisis of the Argentine Peso has occurred more than once. At the same time, another bad reputation of Argentina lies in foreign exchange control. For example, ring the term of former president Christina, the free flow of foreign exchange in Argentina was a big problem In terms of external factors, according to Shi peiran's analysis, the strength of the US dollar in recent years is a huge pressure on emerging countries. Therefore, the combination of internal and external factors has aroused the concern of international investors. The natural choice made by the market is to sell the peso in exchange for the US dollar. What is chain like is that once the Argentine Peso begins to depreciate on a large scale, it is difficult for the international market not to recall the peso crises of the 1980s and 1990s At the same time, the world bank believes that Argentina's economic recovery is continuing. Argentina's economy deflated by 1.8% in 2016 and recovered in 2017 with a growth rate of 2.9%. At the same time, Argentina's basic deficit decreased from 4.3% of GDP in 2016 to 3.8% of GDP in 2017, but both were lower than the official fiscal target. The Argentine government plans to graally achieve a basic fiscal balance by 2021 According to Tang Jun, Argentina's economy grew slightly in 2017, which shows that many policies of Markley to stimulate economic growth have played a certain role. In 2018, the Argentine government will set its economic growth target at about 3%. China's one belt, one road initiative and its desire to move forward in 2017 will bring new opportunities for Argentina to visit Macri. However, Argentina's economy is also facing many problems, such as single economic structure, fragile financial system, high foreign debt, high government deficit and so on. There are still many negative factors affecting economic growth and social stability. Argentina's economic growth is still shrouded in an unknown shadowas for the current economic performance of Argentina, Martin believes that Argentina adopts the semi floating exchange rate system under the intervention of the central bank, and the Central Bank of Argentina and the Ministry of finance have taken measures to significantly adjust the short-term interest rates to stabilize the foreign exchange market, so as to control the situation in the short term, open and operate the market with greater flexibility and volatility from the medium to normal period, and rece the possibility of similar fluctuations or greater crises
However, it will take some time to solve the deeper problems of the national real economy, such as the heavy tax burden, the reform of labor law, and how to improve the investment environment Martin said, "Argentina's economy is expected to maintain 2% growth this year, inflation rate is about 25%, government fiscal deficit is slightly reced, and trade deficit is about 30 billion US dollars." Tang Jun also said that 2018 is Argentina's home diplomatic year, and the G20 will be held in Argentina. The government of marcori wants to take the opportunity to further promote reform and increase budget expenditure, while the financial deficit of the Argentine government continues to expand, coupled with the successive years of trade deficit, shortage of money, high foreign debt, and huge pressure on the financial system, As a result, since the beginning of this year, the peso's exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated by more than 40% (from about 17:1 to the current 25:1), and there is a trend of further deterioration. Therefore, the Central Bank of Argentina has to take measures to start the peso defense war