Digital currency Goldman Sachs
with the upgrading of payment methods, we can eat, take a taxi and go to the supermarket without cash. The amount of cash needed in circulation is getting smaller and smaller. Can we replace paper money with a virtual digital currency? This is not a whim. The central bank recently said that the research on digital currency has achieved phased results, striving for the early issuance of digital currency. If the digital currency is successfully issued, it will not only make people's living and payment more convenient, but also increase the transparency of economic transaction activities for the country. So, how far is digital currency from us< Not long ago, the people's Bank of China revealed that a special research team had been set up in 2014 to conct in-depth research on digital currency issuance and business operation framework, key technologies of digital currency, issuance and circulation environment, etc
what is digital currency? Many people may be unfamiliar with this. There is no official definition of digital currency. According to the instry, the digital currency referred to by the central bank should be the electronization of RMB. At present, people's daily third-party payment behaviors such as bank transfer and yu'ebao are all related to digital currency. Digital currency in a broad sense includes unofficial virtual currency, such as bitcoin, which was popular before
here we also need to mention a new term called "blockchain technology", which is a new technology of the Internet. Digital currency is supported by blockchain technology, which is characterized by "decentralization", that is, taking away the centralized control of an institution over the issuance of currency. Yu Fenghui, a financial critic, said that the trust problem in the virtual economic system can be solved through blockchain technology. Taking bitcoin as an example, it is not issued by a specific monetary institution, but is generated by the transaction volume of network nodes, and is single, traceable and traceable after it is put into circulation. All funds are very transparent where they come from and where they go
a more familiar form of digital currency should be electronic RMB, which has infiltrated into various consumption scenarios of electronic payment. There is no need to repeat the impact and subversion of electronic payment on our lives. Credit card payment and code scanning payment have greatly reced the space for the use of paper money. It can be seen that the progress of technology has graally forced the withdrawal of paper money
the new favorite of the financial system
the attitudes of all countries towards digital currency are changing. It is reported that DNB, Norway's largest bank, recently called on the government to stop using cash completely. In fact, several banks in Norway have closed some branches' cash business. Only three branches of DNB have counter cash business. Other Norwegian banks are also phasing out cash transactions. According to statistics, only 6% of Norwegians still use cash every day, most of them are the elderly
not only Norway, but also the world is moving towards the era of digital currency. According to Xiao Lei, chief researcher of gold wallet, many institutions, including Nasdaq Stock Exchange, Goldman Sachs and modern, began to invest in the research because of the continuous impact of digital currency represented by bitcoin on the world financial system. It is found that the blockchain technology used in digital currency can bring convenience and rece costs to many institutions, and there are cases that can be applied to the real economy. This gives more countries and institutions the incentive to invest in blockchain technology and digital currency
in China, some institutions have shown great interest in it and invested in research. It is understood that Alibaba Finance announced that it may provide a cloud service platform based on blockchain technology
digital currency is sought after and favored because there is no real "world currency" in the current global market. It is understood that although the US dollar is currently the most widely used currency in the world, not every country readily accepts the US dollar as the world currency. Xiao Lei said that the world currency should be like gold, with the characteristics of "de nationalization". Digital currency can even be regarded as gold in the gold standard era, and is expected to become the "general equivalent" in the Internet era in the future
the application space is broad
it is not difficult to see that digital currency is highly expected. Instry insiders said that once digital currency comes out, it will be applied to many fields
from a national perspective, the "trace" and "traceability" of digital currency can improve the convenience and transparency of economic transactions. Yu Fenghui said that money laundering, tax evasion and other criminal activities are expected to decrease. At the same time, with the application of blockchain technology, a unified account book will be established nationwide and even worldwide, so that every sum of money can be traced, every transaction can be traced, tax evasion and money laundering will be within the scope of supervision, and it is even possible to realize automatic tax dection on the card machine
for the central bank, digital currency can rece the high cost of traditional paper money issuance and circulation, and solve the problem of currency over issuance and inflation caused by the central bank's centralized control of currency issuance right. Bai Chengyu, Secretary General of China microfinance Union, said that digital currency can generate a certain amount of transaction volume according to the transaction demand of real economy generated by the public in the transaction process“ This form of digital currency may be automatically generated by the blockchain system and issued according to the transaction volume, which can avoid the inflation caused by over issuance. "
in addition, digital currency helps to build a new financial infrastructure. For example, digital currency will make the credit accumulation and archives of all people traceable and accessible, which is of great significance to promote the construction of credit system. Yu Fenghui said that after the promotion of digital currency, from the perspective of social credit accumulation, enterprises and consumers will tend to use digital currency and swipe cards for consumption, because electronic transactions have data traces, which can accumulate the credit of enterprises and indivials, which will become the basis for obtaining financial services such as banks< In addition to helping the state to regulate and improve the financial system, digital currency is closely related to people's life. It is not only the convenient payment that people have felt, but also reflected in many aspects
first of all, it is very difficult to have counterfeit money in the market. According to Bai Chengyu, one of the characteristics of blockchain is transparency. The issuance of digital currency needs to be certified, so it is difficult to forge
as well as counterfeit money, there should be the problem of plundering the wealth of people and enterprises in local areas, which will be fundamentally solved by digital currency. Bai Chengyu said that compared with the previous state's decentralization of poverty alleviation funds to local governments, some governments have the phenomenon of "evasion", which leads to the fact that some poverty alleviation objects can not get the funds“ At the beginning, it was cash distribution, and later it was bank transfer. However, there was a problem that there were not many bank outlets in some remote areas, and people had to walk a long way to get money. If there is a digital currency, there is no need to withdraw cash for consumption and payment, and it will be easier to monitor capital flow. "
moreover, the use of digital currency will rece financial transaction costs. Bai Chengyu said that before, the inter-bank settlement of banks had to charge service charges, because the settlement center required each bank to keep a part of the capital to balance its position. This part of the capital occupied the bank's funds, and the bank would spread the cost to the people, that is, to charge for the inter-bank settlement business. The "decentralized" payment and clearing system under the blockchain technology will facilitate the settlement between banks and further rece the transaction cost of people's payment
the next step of "de centralization" is "de intermediation", which will simplify many current financial business proceres, such as foreign exchange. Bai Chengyu said that previously, foreign exchange clearing had to go through banks and other clearing institutions, which increased the exchange cost and time interval. Now, the international community has tried to use blockchain technology to develop a new international currency exchange system, which can realize the "de centralized" exchange of currency and "de intermediary" in the future
resistance to implementation
although many countries and institutions are actively developing digital currency and blockchain technology, and people are full of expectations for it, even if digital currency is really issued, it will still face some resistance to implementation
technically, because blockchain is an Internet technology, "hacker" risk is taken into account. The bigger problem, though, is control. Many people in the instry said that bitcoin is essentially different from the digital currency to be launched by the central bank. Bitcoin is not issued by a specific monetary institution, and the relevant financial supervision has not been followed up, so there is a large capital risk. However, the digital currency to be launched by the central bank this time belongs to the official currency and is protected by the central bank. Because bitcoin is not uniformly issued by the central bank, it has not been recognized by many countries. The central bank values whether digital currency is controlled or not
in addition, as mentioned above, even as a leading country in digital currency promotion, Norway still has 6% of the elderly people who are difficult to get rid of paper money, which is undoubtedly a problem that can not be ignored by all countries. Xiao Lei said that digital currency will first be targeted at young people and promoted in some areas. It will not turn all the money in the cash flow into digital currency. This needs to consider the coordination between digital currency and paper money and people's willingness to use them
there is bound to be an adaptation process from paper money to digital currency, and the road of its reform will be very long, but it can be seen that digital currency will inevitably form a development trend. Bai Chengyu said that technological innovation will overcome the problems in reality, just like going to a bank to do business now. If it does not involve cash, the lobby manager will recommend customers to ATM and other self-service equipment. This is a good proof that technological innovation has replaced labor in the past. Now the application of mobile phone is also very simple. It can be predicted that the technology will continue to update in the future. The use of electronic channels, digital currency and other procts in the new era will become a trend
Beijing Business Daily reporter Liu Zexian Cheng WeiMiao
of course, the central bank's digital currency is different from bitcoin, wikilink, bitcoin cash, Ethereum and other digital currencies on the market. The central bank's digital currency has the property of currency.
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Japan, South Korea, India and other countries support bitcoin because they are optimistic about digital currency and blockchain technology itself. However, speculators inflate the price of bitcoin, making it more risky
according to a survey of Huo coin.com, 80.77% of bitcoin trading investors are in order to achieve short-term profits. They keep buying and selling along with the fluctuation of the price of bitcoin to earn the difference
Sheba Jafari, head of technology strategy at Goldman Sachs Group, recently released a chart Research Report, in which he predicted the trend of the price of the special currency in the next week. In the report, he pointed out that the digital currency is in a & quot; Impulsive & quot; Rising trend & quot; The fifth wave & quot; In the medium term, it is expected to further rise to as high as US $4827 in the short term
however, & quot; Once the complete five wave sequence is in place, theoretically speaking, the market will enter the correction stage& quot; In the world of digital currencies, it is not uncommon for prices to fluctuate by hundreds of dollars. Bitcoin hit a record high of $3025 in mid June, but fell by more than $1000 in the following month. It has risen again and reached a new high in the past two weeks. Analysts said that the reason why bitcoin prices ushered in this upward trend is that investors are optimistic about its prospects
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bitcoin (BTC) is a digital currency with a total amount of 21 million. It has the characteristics of decentralization, globalization and anonymity, just like the Internet. Transferring bitcoin to the other side of the earth is as simple, low-cost and unlimited as sending e-mail. Bitcoin is therefore used in cross-border trade, payment, remittance and other fields. Of course, Ethereum and wikilink have similar functions
as a new thing, it is widely concerned by investors, enterprises and media< Many international companies and large enterprises have begun to test the digital money market, and their prospects are still quite good.
③ investors are influenced by people who already hold bitcoin and are afraid to miss the opportunity to make money
in 2017, the market value of bitcoin has increased several times by the end of the year despite the price fluctuation, which is enough to make the farsighted players make a lot of money. This is enough to make the spectators who have been hesitant but have not made a move particularly envious. In 2018, more people will participate in it
④ some people have lost their keys, So as to rece part of the supply
⑤ large financial institutions such as CME, COBE and Goldman Sachs began to support digital currency
with the rapid development of digital currency, all the institutions that didn't hold high hopes for bitcoin began to support the development of digital currency
with the pressure of national supervision and the supervision of relevant departments on electricity consumption, the cost of mining is becoming higher and higher, and accordingly, bitcoin will also rise with the tide
7. There may be hoarding< Many people have seen the great potential of bitcoin, so it's no surprise to hoard money.
in countries with serious inflation, bitcoin is a safe currency.
influenced by many factors, the legal hand has a separate competent department, which is prone to economic crisis under the influence of many factors, but the digital currency has no separate issuing department, And because of its virtuality, it is hard to be affected by external factors, and its security is higher. Coin purse, as the leader of digital currency purse in the market, advanced encryption technology has become multi-functional, simple and easy to operate. Players can choose and use it as the ideal purse for storing digital currency
9. Due to anonymity, illegal activities will continue to generate demand for special currency
the anonymity of digital currency determines that many illegal organizations will use bitcoin as an important means of transferring property to launder money, because there is no trace
According to Steve strongin, global head of investment research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the market value of cryptocurrency has evaporated nearly $500 billion in the past month, and the situation is likely to get worse
In a report dated February 5, strongin wrote that most digital currencies are unlikely to exist in their current form and investors should be prepared to lose all their value because they are replaced by a small number of future competitors P>although he did not give a time frame for the situation, he said that the recent price fluctuations indicate bubbles, and the trend of different currencies to be consistent is unreasonable. p>
on February 6, bitcoin fell below US $6000, reaching the lowest of US $5920, the lowest since mid November
strongin pointed out that the introction of regulated bitcoin futures did not solve these concerns. In addition, he ignored the so-called first generation advantage, saying that few people survived the Internet bubble in the late 90s. p>
he said: "is today's cryptocurrency Amazon or Google, or will it be like many search engines that no longer exist today?" Strongin predicts that most cryptocurrencies may never return to their previous peak levels
strongin is more optimistic about the blockchain technology of digital currency, saying that it can help improve financial books
but even so, he warned that the current technology does not provide the speed needed for market transactions
Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics, warned on January 23 that bitcoin "may completely collapse and be forgotten. I think that is a very possible result."
According to Schiller, that reminds him of "tulip mania in the Netherlands in the 1640's" and "bitcoin is worthless unless people can reach some consensus on its value."