Will RMB appreciate with digital currency
Publish: 2021-05-19 07:52:57
1. The central bank has not yet issued digital currency. If the issue is the same as the current RMB, it is only in different forms<
popular science: digital currency (digiccy) is an alternative currency in the form of electronic currency. Both digital gold coin and password currency belong to digital currency. It can not be completely equivalent to the virtual currency in the virtual world, because it is often used for real goods and services transactions, not limited to online games and other virtual space. At present, the central bank does not recognize or issue digital currency, and digital currency does not have to have a benchmark currency. The popular digital currencies in 2015 include bitcoin, lightcoin, bitstock, etc. At present, there are thousands of digital currencies issued all over the world.
popular science: digital currency (digiccy) is an alternative currency in the form of electronic currency. Both digital gold coin and password currency belong to digital currency. It can not be completely equivalent to the virtual currency in the virtual world, because it is often used for real goods and services transactions, not limited to online games and other virtual space. At present, the central bank does not recognize or issue digital currency, and digital currency does not have to have a benchmark currency. The popular digital currencies in 2015 include bitcoin, lightcoin, bitstock, etc. At present, there are thousands of digital currencies issued all over the world.
2. Yes, we do better in the world
3. Digital RMB is the legal digital currency not yet issued by the people's Bank of China, namely "digital currency electronic payment" (DC / EP). Based on the generalized account system, it supports the loose coupling function of bank account, is equivalent to banknotes and coins, and has value characteristics and legal compensation
on August 14, 2020, the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China issued the "overall plan for comprehensively deepening the innovation and development pilot of service trade", which mentioned that "digital RMB pilot will be carried out in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and other pilot areas in central and Western China."
on October 8, 2020, the Shenzhen Internet Information Office announced that in order to promote the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district and in combination with the local consumption promotion policy, the Shenzhen Municipal People's government and the people's Bank of China recently launched a pilot project of digital RMB red envelopes
response time: October 20, 2020. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html
on August 14, 2020, the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China issued the "overall plan for comprehensively deepening the innovation and development pilot of service trade", which mentioned that "digital RMB pilot will be carried out in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and other pilot areas in central and Western China."
on October 8, 2020, the Shenzhen Internet Information Office announced that in order to promote the construction of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district and in combination with the local consumption promotion policy, the Shenzhen Municipal People's government and the people's Bank of China recently launched a pilot project of digital RMB red envelopes
response time: October 20, 2020. Please refer to the official website of Ping An Bank for the latest business changes
[Ping An Bank I know] want to know more? Come and see "Ping An Bank I know" ~
https://b.pingan.com.cn/paim/iknow/index.html
4. No, the digital currency issued by the central bank is still in the experimental stage and has not been officially issued
in addition, digital currency corresponds to RMB, and the exchange rate between them is fixed and there is no fluctuation, so there is no theory of appreciation and depreciation
in addition, there are many people who use digital currency to defraud, so we need to be vigilant
in the future, the digital currency issuance of the national central bank is also through the bank, rather than entrusted to a company
in addition, digital currency corresponds to RMB, and the exchange rate between them is fixed and there is no fluctuation, so there is no theory of appreciation and depreciation
in addition, there are many people who use digital currency to defraud, so we need to be vigilant
in the future, the digital currency issuance of the national central bank is also through the bank, rather than entrusted to a company
5. As all parties concerned about whether the United States will define China as a "currency manipulation" country, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner announced to delay the publication of "currency manipulation report". Geithner's statement is undoubtedly a message to China, hoping that China can adjust the RMB exchange rate within three months (that is, before July). Therefore, I believe that the political pressure on China's RMB exchange rate will graally increase in the next three months. Although the United States has more and more opinions on the RMB exchange rate, from the perspective of various fundamental factors, is there any serious appreciation pressure on the RMB
we are concerned that many criticisms have focused on the fact that since the economic recovery in March last year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not changed much, while most emerging market currencies have shown significant appreciation ring this period. As a result, critics argue that China's renminbi is undervalued and should appreciate along with emerging market currencies
however, we don't think the comparison period is comprehensive. The reason is that although most global economies, especially the United States, began to show signs of bottoming out in March 2009, don't forget that the financial crisis actually started in August 2008
therefore, we believe that it is more appropriate to change the currency comparison cycle of emerging economies to "from August 2008 to now". If so, the data will show different results: Although the RMB does not appreciate as much as many Asian currencies, it is much more stable relative to the US dollar at a time when most emerging market currencies depreciate significantly against the US dollar. Therefore, it is unfair to impose relevant penalties on the pretext that RMB has not appreciated or been undervalued against the US dollar, because in fact, the Chinese government has only strictly maintained a relatively stable monetary environment ring the above period
since 2001, China's current account surplus, driven by strong exports, has risen for seven consecutive years to US $426.1 billion in 2008, rising 24.4 times in seven years, with an average annual growth rate of 58%. In this case, the RMB is often accused of being excessively undervalued by the outside world, so the international pressure for RMB appreciation has always existed< However, with the global financial tsunami in 2008, the economies of Europe and the United States fell into recession, and China's export growth also dropped rapidly. However, after years of economic reform, the income of domestic residents has increased significantly, and the positive stimulus policy has triggered strong domestic demand, so the demand for foreign imports of goods / services has increased significantly. As a result, the current account surplus in 2009 dropped by more than 33% to 284.1 billion US dollars from the high of 400 billion US dollars in 2008. It is estimated that, e to the strong growth of internal demand and the mild recovery of external demand, the growth rate of imports will be faster than that of exports. Therefore, China's current account surplus will graally decline in the next two years, and there is a great chance that it will be less than 5% of GDP. If these forecasts come true, it will mean that potential external imbalances are improving towards sustainability. Even if the current account surplus is less than 5% of GDP, it is still a very healthy current account figure, but the appreciation pressure caused by the current account surplus will be greatly reced in theory
from other perspectives, such as "real exchange rate", the pressure of RMB appreciation will graally decrease. We always discussed the nominal exchange rate of RMB before. However, when we judge whether a currency is undervalued, we should focus on its real exchange rate: "real exchange rate = nominal exchange rate of two currencies after adjusting the inflation gap"
we believe that whether the RMB is too low against the US dollar also depends on the future inflation of both. In other words, the real appreciation of RMB may be realized through nominal exchange rate appreciation, higher inflation of China relative to its trading partners, or both. If China's inflation rate rises faster and more, then the rise of nominal exchange rate can be relatively slow. That is to say, in the context of China's rapid growth and continued deepening of price reform (such as oil proct price reform), China's inflation expectation should be much higher than that of the United States. In this case, the nominal RMB exchange rate can rise slowly. In addition, if we pay attention to the recent trend of trade weighted exchange rates of several emerging market currencies, the RMB has not shown obvious appreciation pressure compared with other emerging market currencies.
we are concerned that many criticisms have focused on the fact that since the economic recovery in March last year, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not changed much, while most emerging market currencies have shown significant appreciation ring this period. As a result, critics argue that China's renminbi is undervalued and should appreciate along with emerging market currencies
however, we don't think the comparison period is comprehensive. The reason is that although most global economies, especially the United States, began to show signs of bottoming out in March 2009, don't forget that the financial crisis actually started in August 2008
therefore, we believe that it is more appropriate to change the currency comparison cycle of emerging economies to "from August 2008 to now". If so, the data will show different results: Although the RMB does not appreciate as much as many Asian currencies, it is much more stable relative to the US dollar at a time when most emerging market currencies depreciate significantly against the US dollar. Therefore, it is unfair to impose relevant penalties on the pretext that RMB has not appreciated or been undervalued against the US dollar, because in fact, the Chinese government has only strictly maintained a relatively stable monetary environment ring the above period
since 2001, China's current account surplus, driven by strong exports, has risen for seven consecutive years to US $426.1 billion in 2008, rising 24.4 times in seven years, with an average annual growth rate of 58%. In this case, the RMB is often accused of being excessively undervalued by the outside world, so the international pressure for RMB appreciation has always existed< However, with the global financial tsunami in 2008, the economies of Europe and the United States fell into recession, and China's export growth also dropped rapidly. However, after years of economic reform, the income of domestic residents has increased significantly, and the positive stimulus policy has triggered strong domestic demand, so the demand for foreign imports of goods / services has increased significantly. As a result, the current account surplus in 2009 dropped by more than 33% to 284.1 billion US dollars from the high of 400 billion US dollars in 2008. It is estimated that, e to the strong growth of internal demand and the mild recovery of external demand, the growth rate of imports will be faster than that of exports. Therefore, China's current account surplus will graally decline in the next two years, and there is a great chance that it will be less than 5% of GDP. If these forecasts come true, it will mean that potential external imbalances are improving towards sustainability. Even if the current account surplus is less than 5% of GDP, it is still a very healthy current account figure, but the appreciation pressure caused by the current account surplus will be greatly reced in theory
from other perspectives, such as "real exchange rate", the pressure of RMB appreciation will graally decrease. We always discussed the nominal exchange rate of RMB before. However, when we judge whether a currency is undervalued, we should focus on its real exchange rate: "real exchange rate = nominal exchange rate of two currencies after adjusting the inflation gap"
we believe that whether the RMB is too low against the US dollar also depends on the future inflation of both. In other words, the real appreciation of RMB may be realized through nominal exchange rate appreciation, higher inflation of China relative to its trading partners, or both. If China's inflation rate rises faster and more, then the rise of nominal exchange rate can be relatively slow. That is to say, in the context of China's rapid growth and continued deepening of price reform (such as oil proct price reform), China's inflation expectation should be much higher than that of the United States. In this case, the nominal RMB exchange rate can rise slowly. In addition, if we pay attention to the recent trend of trade weighted exchange rates of several emerging market currencies, the RMB has not shown obvious appreciation pressure compared with other emerging market currencies.
6. RMB will also appreciate
the central bank announced the RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB is no longer pegged to the single US dollar, but implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. At the same time, the central bank announced that from now on, the exchange rate of US dollar to RMB will be adjusted from 1: 8.27 to the current 1: 8.11, and the daily fluctuation of exchange rate will be controlled at three thousandths. As soon as the news came out, it attracted wide attention at home and abroad. It is true that the 2% exchange rate adjustment will not have any impact, but the behavior of the central bank is only a tentative signal. The author believes that the RMB will continue to appreciate in the future, and the appreciation rate will increase. The reason is that the small tentative appreciation of RMB can not eliminate the dilemma, and several factors that promote the appreciation of RMB will continue to work, forcing the RMB exchange rate to reach a reasonable level
first, the great pressure to force RMB appreciation comes from abroad to a large extent. For a long time, China's fixed exchange rate system pegged to the U.S. dollar has promoted the substantial growth of exports in foreign trade, which has achieved a miracle of China's economy in the short term. For a long time, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export is higher than that of GDP year after year, which has become one of the "troikas" to drive the economy. Even under the pressure of restrictions imposed by various countries and blocked exports this year, exports still maintained a high growth rate of 23.2% in the first half of the year. But just as China has become the world's factory and "made in China" goods are flooding the world, trade frictions have become increasingly frequent. The reason is that the crazy influx of a large number of Chinese goods is constantly squeezing the living space of foreign counterparts. Under the pressure of trade unions and instry organizations, the government has to take measures to safeguard the basic rights and interests of domestic workers. At the same time, the huge trade deficit of the United States in successive years also made Congress and government officials eager to find scapegoats. In 1985, the United States believed that the culprit was Japan, so it forced Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement" aimed at the sharp appreciation of the yen. Twenty years later, the United States believes that China has played the same role. Therefore, trade frictions and political pressure are important reasons for China's exchange rate reform. Obviously, the impact of 2% fluctuation on China's exports is negligible. The problem has not been solved at all. The pressure from trade and politics still exists. Therefore, RMB will continue to appreciate in the future until a balance acceptable to all parties< Second, the central bank decided to crack down on hot money from the international market. For a long time, the rapid development of China's economy has brought international investors' expectation of RMB appreciation. Then a large number of hot money came one after another and poured into some instries, including real estate, which caused the false appearance of the vigorous development of these instries. Take the real estate instry as an example, the house price in Shanghai has nearly doubled in just five years! Some scholars' research shows that the strong demand mainly comes from foreign hot money. The direct phenomenon is that the real occupancy rate of high-end real estate in Xujiahui is less than 30%. High prices have long been seriously decoupled from the actual purchasing power of local residents, and similar phenomena also appear in Beijing, Hangzhou, Qing and other regions. Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist Xie Guozhong pointed out sharply that the collapse of China's real estate bubble is not something in the next few years, but something in the coming months. Before this appreciation, the joint regulation of the seven ministries and commissions of the central government on the real estate instry was later regarded as paving the way for RMB appreciation. Obviously, the Chinese government does not want the hot money to leave immediately, because that will cause the entire financial system to collapse and the economy to brake. But the continued expansion of laissez faire bubble will eventually lead to its breakdown. Professor Xu Shaoqiang of Fudan University once proposed a mild way to disperse hot money with a small number of voices. Now it seems that the government's approach is very similar to its proposal. If the exchange rate can not reach a reasonable level and the value of RMB continues to be undervalued, the 2% fluctuation will only be regarded by international investors as the loosening of the exchange rate system by the Chinese government, which will make them invest more money in China and gamble heavily on the appreciation of RMB. This trend is hard to curb by administrative means. In the first half of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by more than 100 billion US dollars. In addition to FDI (foreign direct investment) and export factors, experts estimate that more than 30 billion US dollars is likely to be overseas hot money. Therefore, this exchange rate fluctuation is by no means in place at one time, but only to pave the way for appreciation< Third, the continuous undervaluation of RMB is a severe test for the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Statistics show that China's foreign exchange reserves reached 711 billion US dollars in the first half of this year, and it is expected that China's foreign exchange reserves will reach 100 billion US dollars in June next year, surpassing Japan, which has the largest foreign exchange holdings in the world. This is a terrible number. China has reluctantly become an important force supporting the US dollar. The foreign exchange reserve of 700 billion US dollars has brought many problems, which has long been a worry of the Chinese government. In addition, in recent years, the trend of the US dollar has been weak and the US dollar has been depreciating continuously. Under such circumstances, the Chinese government has to buy a lot of US dollars in order to maintain a relatively stable exchange rate, which has directly caused huge losses of hundreds of millions. From this point of view, China's exchange rate reform is imperative, even in the absence of direct foreign pressure, because the central bank is not willing to buy unlimited amount of paper flowing from the U.S. banknote printing machine< Fourth, the reform of China's exchange rate system is the trend of the times, sooner or later. The change from fixed exchange rate system to floating exchange rate system is inevitable. The pegging of RMB to the US dollar is only a measure of equity, and now the fluctuation of 3% is actually a disguised fixed exchange rate. In fact, the sustained and rapid development of China's economy and the grand goal of quadrupling GDP are the fundamental driving forces for RMB appreciation. Because the value of a country's currency represents the comprehensive strength of the country to a large extent, RMB will surely win the universal trust all over the world in the future and become an international currency like us dollar and euro. From this point of view, the exchange rate reform is a beginning for the Chinese government to take advantage of this opportunity to build RMB into a world currency.
the central bank announced the RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB is no longer pegged to the single US dollar, but implements a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. At the same time, the central bank announced that from now on, the exchange rate of US dollar to RMB will be adjusted from 1: 8.27 to the current 1: 8.11, and the daily fluctuation of exchange rate will be controlled at three thousandths. As soon as the news came out, it attracted wide attention at home and abroad. It is true that the 2% exchange rate adjustment will not have any impact, but the behavior of the central bank is only a tentative signal. The author believes that the RMB will continue to appreciate in the future, and the appreciation rate will increase. The reason is that the small tentative appreciation of RMB can not eliminate the dilemma, and several factors that promote the appreciation of RMB will continue to work, forcing the RMB exchange rate to reach a reasonable level
first, the great pressure to force RMB appreciation comes from abroad to a large extent. For a long time, China's fixed exchange rate system pegged to the U.S. dollar has promoted the substantial growth of exports in foreign trade, which has achieved a miracle of China's economy in the short term. For a long time, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export is higher than that of GDP year after year, which has become one of the "troikas" to drive the economy. Even under the pressure of restrictions imposed by various countries and blocked exports this year, exports still maintained a high growth rate of 23.2% in the first half of the year. But just as China has become the world's factory and "made in China" goods are flooding the world, trade frictions have become increasingly frequent. The reason is that the crazy influx of a large number of Chinese goods is constantly squeezing the living space of foreign counterparts. Under the pressure of trade unions and instry organizations, the government has to take measures to safeguard the basic rights and interests of domestic workers. At the same time, the huge trade deficit of the United States in successive years also made Congress and government officials eager to find scapegoats. In 1985, the United States believed that the culprit was Japan, so it forced Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement" aimed at the sharp appreciation of the yen. Twenty years later, the United States believes that China has played the same role. Therefore, trade frictions and political pressure are important reasons for China's exchange rate reform. Obviously, the impact of 2% fluctuation on China's exports is negligible. The problem has not been solved at all. The pressure from trade and politics still exists. Therefore, RMB will continue to appreciate in the future until a balance acceptable to all parties< Second, the central bank decided to crack down on hot money from the international market. For a long time, the rapid development of China's economy has brought international investors' expectation of RMB appreciation. Then a large number of hot money came one after another and poured into some instries, including real estate, which caused the false appearance of the vigorous development of these instries. Take the real estate instry as an example, the house price in Shanghai has nearly doubled in just five years! Some scholars' research shows that the strong demand mainly comes from foreign hot money. The direct phenomenon is that the real occupancy rate of high-end real estate in Xujiahui is less than 30%. High prices have long been seriously decoupled from the actual purchasing power of local residents, and similar phenomena also appear in Beijing, Hangzhou, Qing and other regions. Morgan Stanley Asia chief economist Xie Guozhong pointed out sharply that the collapse of China's real estate bubble is not something in the next few years, but something in the coming months. Before this appreciation, the joint regulation of the seven ministries and commissions of the central government on the real estate instry was later regarded as paving the way for RMB appreciation. Obviously, the Chinese government does not want the hot money to leave immediately, because that will cause the entire financial system to collapse and the economy to brake. But the continued expansion of laissez faire bubble will eventually lead to its breakdown. Professor Xu Shaoqiang of Fudan University once proposed a mild way to disperse hot money with a small number of voices. Now it seems that the government's approach is very similar to its proposal. If the exchange rate can not reach a reasonable level and the value of RMB continues to be undervalued, the 2% fluctuation will only be regarded by international investors as the loosening of the exchange rate system by the Chinese government, which will make them invest more money in China and gamble heavily on the appreciation of RMB. This trend is hard to curb by administrative means. In the first half of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by more than 100 billion US dollars. In addition to FDI (foreign direct investment) and export factors, experts estimate that more than 30 billion US dollars is likely to be overseas hot money. Therefore, this exchange rate fluctuation is by no means in place at one time, but only to pave the way for appreciation< Third, the continuous undervaluation of RMB is a severe test for the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. Statistics show that China's foreign exchange reserves reached 711 billion US dollars in the first half of this year, and it is expected that China's foreign exchange reserves will reach 100 billion US dollars in June next year, surpassing Japan, which has the largest foreign exchange holdings in the world. This is a terrible number. China has reluctantly become an important force supporting the US dollar. The foreign exchange reserve of 700 billion US dollars has brought many problems, which has long been a worry of the Chinese government. In addition, in recent years, the trend of the US dollar has been weak and the US dollar has been depreciating continuously. Under such circumstances, the Chinese government has to buy a lot of US dollars in order to maintain a relatively stable exchange rate, which has directly caused huge losses of hundreds of millions. From this point of view, China's exchange rate reform is imperative, even in the absence of direct foreign pressure, because the central bank is not willing to buy unlimited amount of paper flowing from the U.S. banknote printing machine< Fourth, the reform of China's exchange rate system is the trend of the times, sooner or later. The change from fixed exchange rate system to floating exchange rate system is inevitable. The pegging of RMB to the US dollar is only a measure of equity, and now the fluctuation of 3% is actually a disguised fixed exchange rate. In fact, the sustained and rapid development of China's economy and the grand goal of quadrupling GDP are the fundamental driving forces for RMB appreciation. Because the value of a country's currency represents the comprehensive strength of the country to a large extent, RMB will surely win the universal trust all over the world in the future and become an international currency like us dollar and euro. From this point of view, the exchange rate reform is a beginning for the Chinese government to take advantage of this opportunity to build RMB into a world currency.
7. It will certainly appreciate and cause a fatal blow to China's export instry
8. Unknown_Error
9. Yes, but it won't be easy to appreciate. The appreciation will bring us a lot of negative effects
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