The latest Huijin digital currency

8. The latest news is that the central bank announced to cut the one-year RMB loan benchmark interest rate by 0.27 percentage points, while the bank deposit reserve ratio by 1%. Although the signal of monetary policy adjustment is positive, the positive effect is limited. After all, the percentage point of the rection is too low. Although the deposit reserve ratio announced a 1% decrease, the following remarks, That is to say, the banks that are not participating in the rection of deposit reserve ratio include bank of China, instrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Construction Bank of China, Bank of communications, etc. However, these really influential and powerful banks have not moved at all, which makes the rection of deposit reserve ratio more "fake", In other words, it will not have an impact on the deposit interests of most depositors. However, in the current bear market, when the investment market confidence collapses, it will not cause too much capital to return to the stock market. The potential incremental capital brought by the policy can be ignored, This is basically a "false positive" with a positive nature (and the market has responded to the positive with action, plummeting). The reason for this adjustment may be related to the announcement of bankruptcy of the long-standing U.S. company, Lehman Brothers. The company's bankruptcy direct debt is as high as more than $610 billion, which is far higher than the nearly $20 billion direct debt brought about by the bankruptcy of two previous real estate companies (the total value of mortgage loans owned or guaranteed by the two companies is about $5 trillion), That's nearly half of the $12 trillion mortgage debt in the United States. This is the most dangerous data in the future). However, the US government's rescue fund of only US $200 billion is a drop in the bucket under such huge debt pressure. It is obvious that the subprime mortgage crisis will not end here. It can not be ruled out that more similar companies will declare debt bankruptcy, and the US economy may face recession for more than three years, We have to be on guard against the negative impact on the future of the world (including China), which may affect the profitability of many Chinese enterprises and indirectly affect the Chinese stock market. Therefore, the two pieces of news that came out at the same time express that the future macro pressure is not slowing down, but there is a risk of deterioration. The response of the Central Bank of China in the face of potential huge risks is a little too optimistic, which may lay a hidden danger for China's future economic development. And yesterday, the government suddenly attacked the long-awaited good news. First, the stamp tax was changed to one thousandth of the one-sided levy. (personal understanding of the policy is to pay more attention to the good degree brought by this policy, which is really good, but the effect will be less than that brought by the last tax rection! Last time, bulls in the stock market were still relatively strong, bringing nearly 120 billion incremental capital to the stock market. In fact, the real rebound of the market is only four days. However, the estimated incremental capital brought by the tax cut this time is not more than 30 billion, which is the most optimistic estimate. Because the capital in the stock market has been deeply absorbed as much as 90%, and their capital to cover their positions is not very abundant, Because most of their funds to cover their positions were consumed in the last stamp tax market and the previous continuous decline in the bottom, the real funds that survived were a few. In reality, recing the stamp tax has become a false positive, which is only good for the repeated operation of funds; The first problem is that the money has not yet been set up; And 90% of the funds are not ready to buy and sell, and there is no funds to carry out the so-called large-scale bottom hunting, so the tax rection has no real significance for them, and the institutions will not miss this opportunity to take advantage of the good delivery and see what the institutions did when the stamp ty fell last time, SASAC said that it supports the central enterprises to buy back their stocks (and some public opinions in the market deliberately call it the admission of the stabilization fund, while the sponsor of the stabilization fund has said that the fund has not determined the source of funds, and there is no timetable for its admission, The company belongs to the Ministry of Finance and is directly managed by the central bank. It has used its foreign exchange reserves to hold a large proportion of shares in the above three banks, and the loss of profits of the company can be described as very heavy. Therefore, the company's purchase of shares in the secondary market is suspected to be entrusted with the share price, because the restricted shares of the company take ICBC as an example, When the restricted stock "Bank of China lifted the ban on July 15, 2009" goes public on October 27, 2009, it may be cut off. Then the company's profits may continue to shrink to the cost price by a large margin, and its strategic investment can be regarded as a failure. Take 3 yuan as an example, if the company does not trust the share price, it will let the share price fall to 2 yuan, The current market value of 354 billion yuan may shrink to 236 billion yuan, which is unacceptable compared with the company's 100 billion yuan at the peak of the share price. Therefore, the reason why the company's share price is entrusted is to sell at a higher price after the expiration of the lifting of the ban period, which may not be the long-term investment in the future considered by most people. This is also forced by the market, What's more, the stock price will not return to the position where most people are trapped, because the company exists for arbitrage. What's the profit of retail investors? Huijin will buy the stock, the market value will rise, and then put it on the market, and it will make another profit, so it goes round and round! The people's money continues to be sucked in to make up for the astronomical capital injection losses caused by the central bank in the operation of state-owned enterprises. The use of the state's foreign exchange reserves for the losses caused by the system and mechanism of state-owned enterprises has also been questioned by some scholars and experts.) Now the risk is still very big, I suggest friends to rece their positions for the time being to avoid the risk. It's only a matter of time before the problem of size is solved to 1500, and it won't be the lowest point either. Recently, the market announced that the net position rection of institutions in August was nearly 20 billion. According to the spirit of the recent meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, it is revealed that the two rescue policies, margin trading and stock index futures, which are expected by the market, are still in the stage of discussion. We should get on the right track of planning. We are optimistic about what will happen in early 2009. Today, most of the stocks are close to the trading limit, especially the huge amount of funds that can drive crazy at the moment of opening, Although the market was forced to close down again in the future, the amount of money could shrink rapidly. It was the big and small non-profit organizations and big institutions that could do such a thing. Although they continued to close down after recing their positions in the early morning, their intention was to create an illusion that bulls were absolutely overwhelming and give the OTC funds space and confidence to daydream, After the market institutions pull up selling chips, there will be more funds to take the initiative to participate in chips, again pull up shipping. And 2270 is the first pressure of this rebound, 2500 is the second pressure. Let's take it when it's good. If the problem leading to this bear market is really solved by time as the state suggests through the comments of Xinhua news agency, there will be hope in 2011 after the peak of lifting the ban, and the market of main shipping is bottomless. The bottom is the result of large-scale construction of institutional positions, not retail investors. It is suggested that investors with high safety requirements should not intervene, Holding money is the main reason for the long-term fluctuation of the stock market. This is the real reason why the stock keeps falling. Now the downward trend has been formed e to the shortage of capital, Investors should be rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is very complex and simple. What is complex is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market. However, the simple thing is that the long-term long short trend of capital determines the long-term rise and fall trend of the market. However, the stock market can not only fall but not rise. It is certain that it will rebound on the way down, However, the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the good news on the policy side. If these non substantial good news still support the market, then every rebound is an opportunity to rece positions. Only after the non substantial restrictive measures are taken, can the market ease the pressure on capital and bring about a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal, As long as the core problem leading to the big drop is not solved, investors should look at it as a rebound and rece their positions when it is high. The weak confidence of investors makes the bottom selling funds very cautious. Although the bottom selling funds try to change this decline, the situation is not too optimistic. The current stock market is not lack of confidence or funds as the government says, This year is the lightest year, with only 3 trillion of lifting the ban, but it has already made the main funds in the market unbearable (before the main force began to ship, the main funds in the market were only 3 trillion, but the size is not enough to eliminate them). Although the government has come to a fund, it also has to talk about politics, However, it seems that the real effect is not great. The action of the institutions to continue to rebound and deliver goods has not stopped. They have to choose the strategy of retreat while fighting to rece losses. Even before the Olympic Games, the so-called good news of the government will prevent the stock market from continuing to fall. However, as long as it is not a substantive solution to the big and small problems, but only some painless policies, In the current market, where the long short balance of funds has been broken, investors should not be too optimistic even if they adopt the trend of horizontal movement or small rebound ring the Olympic Games, because they should be cautious, because the real problem has not been solved, The capital will continue to be tight. If there is a rebound brought about by the policy, it is wise to rece the price every high. Don't believe in the stock review without considering the actual big market. Since the non lifting capital in 2009 is nearly 7 trillion, the lifting capital in 2010 is nearly 10 trillion, which is far more than 3 trillion this year, so before the core problem leading to this big drop is solved, It is impossible to solve the pressure on capital. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is very complex, it is also very simple. The rule of the stock market is that if you sell more than you buy, you will fall, and if you buy more than you sell, you will rise. Most people know this, But why are some people reluctant to face it when the capital has been reflected? Don't believe that big and small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small non-small, Do you think big and small non holders will settle down or will they continue to watch their profits shrink, When the idea of long-term shareholders is that only retail investors ecated by institutions will do it) and the power of selling is overwhelming in a long-term trend for some reason, it's self deception to talk about when the bull market will come back The so-called iron bottom 2990, the strongest policy in the mouth of institutions that will never be broken down, has rapidly disintegrated in the face of the reality of imbalance of funds. Therefore, in the short term, without the support of new favorable policies, the rebound is an opportunity to rece the position. Of course, if there is a marginal favorable policy, it will bring the bottom fund to the bottom, and the rebound is relatively large, which is of course the best. For retail investors, the opportunity is rare. Strictly control the position is the only thing I want to say now, every rebound is rigorous position rection. Only with funds in hand can we have the initiative and usher in the real bottom. The bottom is the main force, not the retail investors,