The influence of digital currency on M1 and M2
Publish: 2021-05-14 01:29:13
1.
1. The meaning of M1 is different:
M1 reflects the real purchasing power in the economy; M2 reflects both real and potential purchasing power. If M1 grows fast, consumption and terminal market will be active; If M2 grows fast, investment and intermediate market will be active
the central bank and commercial banks can judge monetary policy based on this. M2 is too high and M1 is too low, which indicates that investment is overheated, demand is not strong and there is a risk of crisis; M1 is too high and M2 is too low, indicating strong demand, insufficient investment and the risk of price rise
2. Different types of deposits:
M1 includes cash (paper currency or subsidiary currency), traveler's check, current deposit or other check deposits. These currencies can be directly used as a medium of exchange for various transactions and payments
M2 refers to adding other savings deposits (such as time deposits of banks, balance of money market mutual funds and deposits of other financial institutions) to M1. The amount of money in circulation is also called money stock
In definition:the current division of monetary level in China is as follows:
narrow money (M1) = M0 + unit current deposit that can be paid by check
broad money (M2) = M1 + household savings deposit + unit fixed deposit + unit other deposit + securities company customer margin
extended data:
influence M1 Reasons for M2 value:
1. For example, the hot stock market will affect the change of M1 value. Many people will put time deposits and some assets into the stock market, which will accelerate the rise of M1
If the growth rate of M1 is less than that of M2 in a long period of time, it indicates that the alternative investment opportunities are decreasing in the future, enterprises and residents choose to deposit their funds in banks on a regular basis, and the micro indivial profitability is declining If the growth rate of M1 is greater than that of M2 in a long period of time, it indicates that the economic prosperity is rising, the expansion is fast, the transactions between enterprises and residents are active, and the profitability of micro entities is strong 4. The more liquid part of the currency structure changes into the less liquid part, which will affect the investment and economic growth
in a word, M1 and M2 should maintain coordinated growth, and any turbulence in any value is not concive to the development of the national economy
2. M1 and M2 are the categories of money supply. People generally divide the money supply into different levels to measure, analyze and control according to the size of liquidity. In practice, many countries have paid more attention to M The definitions of M1 and M2 are different, but they are all divided according to the liquidity, M. The liquidity of M2 is the worst< At present, money supply in China is also divided into three levels, which are:
M Cash in circulation refers to the cash in circulation outside the banking system
M1: money supply in a narrow sense, i.e. M. + Current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2: broad money supply, namely M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + savings deposits of residents
in these three levels, M. It is closely related to consumption change and is the most active currency
M1 is the leading indicator of business cycle fluctuation, and liquidity is second only to M
M2 liquidity is weak, but it reflects the change of social aggregate demand and the pressure of inflation in the future. Generally speaking, money supply mainly refers to m2.
M Cash in circulation refers to the cash in circulation outside the banking system
M1: money supply in a narrow sense, i.e. M. + Current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2: broad money supply, namely M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + savings deposits of residents
in these three levels, M. It is closely related to consumption change and is the most active currency
M1 is the leading indicator of business cycle fluctuation, and liquidity is second only to M
M2 liquidity is weak, but it reflects the change of social aggregate demand and the pressure of inflation in the future. Generally speaking, money supply mainly refers to m2.
3. The change of broad money happens to be counter cyclical to monetary policy. In order to keep prices stable, monetary policy should be tightened, broad money should be reced, and monetary policy should be relaxed, so as to avoid economic stagflation.
4. M1 = currency in circulation + current deposits of commercial banks
M2 = M1 + fixed and savings deposits of commercial banks
therefore, the answer is:
1) M1 decreases e to the decrease of currency. M2 decreases with the decrease of M1
2) M1 decreases and M2 remains unchanged when current deposits are transferred to savings
3) similarly, M1 increases while M2 remains unchanged
M2 = M1 + fixed and savings deposits of commercial banks
therefore, the answer is:
1) M1 decreases e to the decrease of currency. M2 decreases with the decrease of M1
2) M1 decreases and M2 remains unchanged when current deposits are transferred to savings
3) similarly, M1 increases while M2 remains unchanged
5. Unknown_Error
6. The difference between M1 and M2 doesn't make much sense
however, the difference between M1 growth rate and M2 growth rate is an indicator of monetary liquidity. When m1-m2 growth rate is greater than 10%, it means that the economy is overheated. When m1-m2 growth rate is less than - 10%, it means that the economy is not active enough.
however, the difference between M1 growth rate and M2 growth rate is an indicator of monetary liquidity. When m1-m2 growth rate is greater than 10%, it means that the economy is overheated. When m1-m2 growth rate is less than - 10%, it means that the economy is not active enough.
7. Money supply
money supply
money and quasi money (M2)
money & quasi money
money (M1)
cash in circulation
M0 = cash in circulation
M1 = M0 + current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2 = M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + deposits of residents + other deposits
< br />Market money supply: M0, M1, M2
money supply refers to the amount of money in circulation in a country at a certain time. It is the total amount of money distributed among residents, credit system and the Treasury of enterprises and institutions. Money supply is an important variable affecting macro economy. It has a very important relationship with income, consumption, investment, price and balance of payments. It is an important basis for the country to formulate macroeconomic policies. From the aspect of demand, the balance of social aggregate demand and aggregate supply mainly depends on whether the money supply is moderate or not
cash (M0): refers to the cash held by units and indivials at a certain point in time. It can directly enter the circulation field as a means of circulation and payment at any time. It is the most direct and active purchasing power
narrow money supply (M1): cash (M0) plus current deposits of enterprises and institutions. Current deposit can be issued and cashed at any time, so it has strong liquidity similar to cash
broad money supply (M2): refers to M1 plus quasi money. Among them, quasi currency includes fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions, savings deposits of residents and other deposits. Quasi currency can also be directly converted into cash under certain conditions
the connection and difference among M0, M1 and M2 can be reflected in the following relations:
M0 = cash in circulation
M1 = M0 + current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2 = M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + deposits of residents + other deposits
the biggest rule of the stock market is that it is difficult to grasp its rule, All the knowledge about the stock market forecast is not "universal". However, if we deny the existence of the stock market law, we will inevitably fall into the "agnostic" theory. At least one phenomenon has been repeated at least three times in China's stock market, with a time span of more than ten years. This can be regarded as a "rule" for the time being
this rule is: there is a high correlation between the rise and fall of the stock index and the money supply. Whenever the difference between M2 and M1 is more than 5 percentage points, the index begins to enter a bull market. When the difference is graally narrowed, the stock market begins to peak, especially when M1 reaches about 22%, the index begins to fall
for example, the economic cycle in the 1990s began in 1992, and the economy began to adjust after 1995. In this process, the growth rate gap between M1 and M2 began to narrow, and then expanded. In 1992, the gap between M1 and M2 was 6 percentage points, and narrowed to 1 percentage point in 1993. In 1994 and 1995, the growth rate of M1 slowed down significantly, and the gap between M1 and M2 began to widen. In 1994 and 1995, M2 was 7.7 percentage points and 12.8 percentage points faster than M1, respectively. Then came the bull market after 1996. The stock index rose for two consecutive years. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly twice from 500 points in early 1996 to 1500 points in May 1997
to analyze China's stock index, we have to mention the "5.19" market. Before the "5.19" market in 1999, M1 and M2 had the same deviation trend, with the biggest gap reaching 6 percentage points“ The main reason why the "5.19" market is still talked about by the market ten years later is that the Shanghai Composite Index has a huge rise in a short time
interestingly, according to the change of money supply data, we can predict not only the low point of stock index, but also its high point. When the M1 growth rate exceeds 22%, the stock index will generally enter a bear market. On December 11, 2007, the author wrote an article that: M1 has been above 20% for several months, the situation of savings moving is about to slow down, and the continuous rise of the stock market has been unsustainable. In October, bank deposits decreased by about 450 billion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index's 6124 points will become a new historical record
in the second half of 2008, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to around 1700 at the end of 2008, the money supply indicators m2 and M1 deviated greatly again. At that time, M2 was more than 10 percentage points higher than M1. Then the "rule" was fulfilled again. By the end of May 2009, the Shanghai composite index had rebounded by more than 40%
why does the operation of China's stock market present such a "law"? We should pay more attention to the institutional basis behind it. Generally speaking, when the growth rate of M2 exceeds M1, the economic growth is in a downward trend, and the economic activity is declining. At this time, the profitability of listed companies should be declining, such as 1996, 1999 and 2005. In this context, why does the stock index rise significantly? The reason lies in the intervention of policy. Whenever the economy is weak, the government will relax the currency, and the surplus currency will first enter the stock market, driving the stock market up by a large margin
for this reason, there are some other "alternative" logic in China's stock market. And in the process of the evolution of China's stock market, with the change of market structure, some laws are weakening and disappearing, and some new laws are replacing them. In the face of this situation, how can investors deal with themselves? If we pursue the changes of the market with our own changes, we will be trapped in it. In this regard, although there are great differences between Chinese and American stock markets, Buffett's practice can still give us great enlightenment. It doesn't look smart enough, but it's true wisdom. If a person does not have some unchangeable values in his heart, he will not be able to grasp himself, let alone the stock market. Zhuangzi's Taoism is a kind of metaphysics, and the core idea of "externalizing but not internalizing" points out the indispensable cultivation goal of personality maturity for Chinese people. As a place of life practice, the stock market is no exception.
money supply
money and quasi money (M2)
money & quasi money
money (M1)
cash in circulation
M0 = cash in circulation
M1 = M0 + current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2 = M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + deposits of residents + other deposits
< br />Market money supply: M0, M1, M2
money supply refers to the amount of money in circulation in a country at a certain time. It is the total amount of money distributed among residents, credit system and the Treasury of enterprises and institutions. Money supply is an important variable affecting macro economy. It has a very important relationship with income, consumption, investment, price and balance of payments. It is an important basis for the country to formulate macroeconomic policies. From the aspect of demand, the balance of social aggregate demand and aggregate supply mainly depends on whether the money supply is moderate or not
cash (M0): refers to the cash held by units and indivials at a certain point in time. It can directly enter the circulation field as a means of circulation and payment at any time. It is the most direct and active purchasing power
narrow money supply (M1): cash (M0) plus current deposits of enterprises and institutions. Current deposit can be issued and cashed at any time, so it has strong liquidity similar to cash
broad money supply (M2): refers to M1 plus quasi money. Among them, quasi currency includes fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions, savings deposits of residents and other deposits. Quasi currency can also be directly converted into cash under certain conditions
the connection and difference among M0, M1 and M2 can be reflected in the following relations:
M0 = cash in circulation
M1 = M0 + current deposits of enterprises and institutions
M2 = M1 + fixed deposits of enterprises and institutions + deposits of residents + other deposits
the biggest rule of the stock market is that it is difficult to grasp its rule, All the knowledge about the stock market forecast is not "universal". However, if we deny the existence of the stock market law, we will inevitably fall into the "agnostic" theory. At least one phenomenon has been repeated at least three times in China's stock market, with a time span of more than ten years. This can be regarded as a "rule" for the time being
this rule is: there is a high correlation between the rise and fall of the stock index and the money supply. Whenever the difference between M2 and M1 is more than 5 percentage points, the index begins to enter a bull market. When the difference is graally narrowed, the stock market begins to peak, especially when M1 reaches about 22%, the index begins to fall
for example, the economic cycle in the 1990s began in 1992, and the economy began to adjust after 1995. In this process, the growth rate gap between M1 and M2 began to narrow, and then expanded. In 1992, the gap between M1 and M2 was 6 percentage points, and narrowed to 1 percentage point in 1993. In 1994 and 1995, the growth rate of M1 slowed down significantly, and the gap between M1 and M2 began to widen. In 1994 and 1995, M2 was 7.7 percentage points and 12.8 percentage points faster than M1, respectively. Then came the bull market after 1996. The stock index rose for two consecutive years. The Shanghai Composite Index rose nearly twice from 500 points in early 1996 to 1500 points in May 1997
to analyze China's stock index, we have to mention the "5.19" market. Before the "5.19" market in 1999, M1 and M2 had the same deviation trend, with the biggest gap reaching 6 percentage points“ The main reason why the "5.19" market is still talked about by the market ten years later is that the Shanghai Composite Index has a huge rise in a short time
interestingly, according to the change of money supply data, we can predict not only the low point of stock index, but also its high point. When the M1 growth rate exceeds 22%, the stock index will generally enter a bear market. On December 11, 2007, the author wrote an article that: M1 has been above 20% for several months, the situation of savings moving is about to slow down, and the continuous rise of the stock market has been unsustainable. In October, bank deposits decreased by about 450 billion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index's 6124 points will become a new historical record
in the second half of 2008, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to around 1700 at the end of 2008, the money supply indicators m2 and M1 deviated greatly again. At that time, M2 was more than 10 percentage points higher than M1. Then the "rule" was fulfilled again. By the end of May 2009, the Shanghai composite index had rebounded by more than 40%
why does the operation of China's stock market present such a "law"? We should pay more attention to the institutional basis behind it. Generally speaking, when the growth rate of M2 exceeds M1, the economic growth is in a downward trend, and the economic activity is declining. At this time, the profitability of listed companies should be declining, such as 1996, 1999 and 2005. In this context, why does the stock index rise significantly? The reason lies in the intervention of policy. Whenever the economy is weak, the government will relax the currency, and the surplus currency will first enter the stock market, driving the stock market up by a large margin
for this reason, there are some other "alternative" logic in China's stock market. And in the process of the evolution of China's stock market, with the change of market structure, some laws are weakening and disappearing, and some new laws are replacing them. In the face of this situation, how can investors deal with themselves? If we pursue the changes of the market with our own changes, we will be trapped in it. In this regard, although there are great differences between Chinese and American stock markets, Buffett's practice can still give us great enlightenment. It doesn't look smart enough, but it's true wisdom. If a person does not have some unchangeable values in his heart, he will not be able to grasp himself, let alone the stock market. Zhuangzi's Taoism is a kind of metaphysics, and the core idea of "externalizing but not internalizing" points out the indispensable cultivation goal of personality maturity for Chinese people. As a place of life practice, the stock market is no exception.
8. Our extraordinary rhetoric, our cheap
games, with the incompetent readers (my readers,
Christopher? That's how koyler sees you
what is new? Not much. So many people have been cheated
How about dispatching troops? I lost it in kindergarten
games, with the incompetent readers (my readers,
Christopher? That's how koyler sees you
what is new? Not much. So many people have been cheated
How about dispatching troops? I lost it in kindergarten
9. M0, M1, M2 single from these data released, the trend of foreign exchange has no impact in the long term, and there may be small fluctuations in the short term
because it was in the past when it was announced. These data should be combined with historical data. For example, is growth structural or non structural? We should also combine other data such as CPI and other data to comprehensively assess what stage the country may be in, such as inflation. Then we should study what type of inflation inflation is, and then we can predict the possible situation in the future, because different types of inflation have different effects on the currency trend. This is just a small example. The basic data itself can not only look at a single data, nor can it affect the currency trend only by inflation. If possible, we can learn from macroeconomics and predict the currency trend from the perspective of the overall system
because it was in the past when it was announced. These data should be combined with historical data. For example, is growth structural or non structural? We should also combine other data such as CPI and other data to comprehensively assess what stage the country may be in, such as inflation. Then we should study what type of inflation inflation is, and then we can predict the possible situation in the future, because different types of inflation have different effects on the currency trend. This is just a small example. The basic data itself can not only look at a single data, nor can it affect the currency trend only by inflation. If possible, we can learn from macroeconomics and predict the currency trend from the perspective of the overall system
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