Blockchain can greatly shorten the cycle Now the cycle of trade
driven by policy and market, China's blockchain related instries are expected to move from virtual to real
in the context of rapid development of blockchain, China should comply with the needs of globalization, keep up with the international pace, and actively promote the research, standardization and instrialization development of domestic blockchain related fields. Compared with the increasingly stringent supervision of bitcoin and other digital currencies, the support and encouragement of blockchain technology has reached a consensus in the world, and the domestic blockchain technology will also receive national and local policy support in the next few years. Driven by policy and market, blockchain related instries are expected to move from virtual to real, and blockchain technology will accelerate the exploration of possible application scenarios< According to the data of the "in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, the global blockchain market scale is expected to increase from US $411.5 million in 2017 to US $7683.7 million in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 79.6%. In view of the wide application range of distributed ledger, the rising market value of cryptocurrency, the strong demand for improving transparency, security, efficiency and simplifying process, and the popularity of blockchain as a service (
baas), the blockchain market will expand rapidly. In addition, communication services, international trade, supply chain management, programming platform, payment, smart contract, digital authentication and so on are also in urgent need of blockchain technology, which will create a lot of growth opportunities
as an integrated application of distributed data storage, point-to-point transmission, consensus mechanism, encryption algorithm and other technologies, blockchain has become a research hotspot of the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and other international organizations as well as many national governments in recent years, and the instry has also increased investment. At present, the application of blockchain has extended to the Internet of things, intelligent manufacturing, supply chain management, digital asset trading and other fields, which will bring new opportunities for the development of cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet and other new generation information technology, and have the ability to trigger a new round of technological innovation and instrial change
by 2022, the payment sector may occupy the largest share of the blockchain market
relying on blockchain technology, real-time payment of assets can be realized, which not only has the characteristics of tamper proof and digital authentication, but also can greatly save the cost of settlement for financial institutions and banks. In addition, blockchain makes payment automation possible, eliminates the need for middlemen, and saves labor costs and time for buyers and sellers. Thanks to the above advantages, it is expected that the payment sector will be the heaviest one in the whole blockchain market
the fastest growing region will be the Asia Pacific region.
blockchain service providers in the Asia Pacific region are good at designing and developing cryptocurrency platforms with friendly interface, cost saving and high speed, and extending the application of blockchain in many instries. Both large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises are actively seeking risk financing, investing in and developing the most cutting-edge blockchain technology. In addition, the real estate instry of some countries in the Asia Pacific region is expected to rapidly transform from translucency to full transparency, which also helps to enhance the development prospects of blockchain in the Asia Pacific region.
blockchain refers to the technical solution of collective maintenance of a reliable database through centralization and distrust in the past, and it is a technical way for the whole people to participate in bookkeeping. Previous bookkeeping methods were all centralized and needed centralized intermediary, whether it was traditional government, financial institutions, notarization institutions or emerging e-commerce platform and online payment platform
in economic hypothesis, information is sufficient. In fact, it is precisely because of insufficient information that there are very large intermediaries. The existence of intermediaries increases the transaction cost and raises the transaction threshold. In essence, blockchain technology is a large-scale collaboration tool. It makes direct value transfer possible by using pure technology for the first time, and continues the trend of Internet decentralization and disintermediation. Disintermediated blockchain technology will greatly subvert the information intermediary instry
blockchain technology is the basic technology for building bitcoin data structure and encrypted transmission of transaction information, which realizes the issue and transaction of bitcoin. The core of blockchain technology is that all the current participating nodes jointly maintain the transaction and database, so that the transaction is based on the principle of cryptography rather than trust, so that any agreed parties can directly carry out payment transactions without the participation of a third party
technically, a block is a data structure for recording transactions, reflecting the capital flow of a transaction. In the system, the transaction blocks are connected to form a main chain, and all the nodes participating in the calculation record the main chain or part of the main chain
a block contains the following three parts: transaction information, hash formed by the previous block and random number. Transaction information is the task data carried by the block, including the private keys of both parties, the number of transactions, the digital signature of electronic currency, etc; The hash hash formed by the previous block is used to connect the blocks and realize the sequence of past transactions; Random number is the core of the transaction. All nodes compete to calculate the answer of the random number. The node that gets the answer the fastest generates a new block and broadcasts it to all nodes for updating, so as to complete a transaction.
On August 6, 2018, Mr. Cai Yi, financial instry consultant of Huawei Company and founder and CEO of Huaxuan technology, was in daga | blockchain & amp; AI (core group) made a special topic sharing, the theme is: the current situation and Prospect of blockchain finance. The following text is arranged according to the speech of the lecture and has been reviewed by the author
Cai Yi: Consultant of financial instry of Huawei, founder and CEO of Huaxuan science and technology, founder of shared reading association, member of China Writers Association, engaged in financial science and technology research for more than ten years, and is a senior expert in digital transformation of banks
good evening, everyone. I'm very glad and honored to share some thoughts with you here
let's make a simple self introction: my name is Cai Yi. I worked as a writer in my youth. I wrote some books, magazines and novels in the 1990s. At that time, there was no Internet. After work, I have been engaged in the information work of financial instry, from financial channels to data centers, from outlets to technology, witnessed the development of financial technology, and also found some problems. After 2014, I worked as an investment partner and in recent years as a financial instry consultant in Huawei. From the cognitive level, I worked as a consultant for the talent development of digital transformation in the financial instry
in 2015, I started Huaxuan technology and sharing reading club. At present, we mainly focus on the cognition of blockchain and the implementation of financial technology solutions. At the cognitive level, interactive sharing and knowledge management are carried out in the way of book club. At the technical level, the process and scene of the financial instry are reshaped by combining blockchain, big data and AI technologies. I am interested in blockchain and often study and discuss with some friends. Of course, some views are still superficial. I hope you can exchange more criticisms and corrections
the elite think tanks in the United States once believed that the core of maintaining global leadership is science and technology, which must rely on economy, and the core of economy is finance. So what is the future of finance
today's topic is: the current situation and Prospect of blockchain finance. I would like to introce it mainly from three aspects:
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briefly introce finance and financial system
the current situation of blockchain finance
prospect of blockchain finance
First of all, let's talk about the concept of finance. The word "finance" originated from Japan after the Meiji Restoration (1868), which is somewhat related to the gold standard established by Japan in 1897. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was introced into China from Japan. It was first proposed by Finance Minister Liang Qichao in 1902. At that time, Zhang Zhidong raised his objection. Therefore, after the Sino Japanese War of 1894, China remained in the silver standard, but it also made China avoid the Great Depression of 1929 The original meaning of finance is "money accommodation", which refers to the circulation of funds in the society. Later, its meaning has been expanded to indicate transactions and economic activities related to money and credit. In fact, there is another reason: gold used to be the only medium in international trade, and its value and wealth were based on gold. Therefore, when making standard gold bars, people need to melt gold into shape, which may be the original meaning of the word "finance", that is, to melt metalFinance is the general name of currency circulation and credit activities and the economic activities associated with them.
let's look at the definition of Finance later: finance is the general name of currency circulation and credit activities and the economic activities associated with them. In a broad sense, finance generally refers to all the economic activities related to the issuance, custody, exchange, settlement and financing of credit currency, Even including the trading of gold and silver, the narrow sense of Finance specifically refers to the credit currency financing
In short, the contents of finance can be summarized as the issuance and withdrawal of money, the absorption and payment of deposits, the issuance and recovery of loans, the trading of gold, silver and foreign exchange, the issuance and transfer of securities, insurance, trust, domestic and international currency settlement, etc. To put it more bluntly, finance has two-way feedback. The institutions engaged in financial activities mainly include banking, insurance, securities, trust, financial leasing, etc. We all know this better and have frequent contact with it. Therefore, to understand the meaning and institutions of finance, we also need to understand China's financial system
2 China's financial system the development of China's financial system can be roughly divided into five stages:
initial formation stage, the first five years (1948-1953): the establishment of the people's Bank of China (1948). At this time, the PBC is far from what we want now. But it marks the beginning of new China's financial institution system
In the second five years (1953-1978), the people's Bank of China (PBC) is the only financial institution in China that deals with all kinds of banking business, integrating the central bank and ordinary banks. In fact, reunification means that we the model of foreign countries. I will not talk about specific countries In the third five years (1979-1983), the Bank of China (established in 1912), the Agricultural Bank of China (established in 1951) and the Construction Bank of China (established in 1954) were restored or established one after another, but the people's Bank of China still integrates currency issuance and credit. We can see that after the reform and opening up, China's financial instry has developed very fastthe diversified financial institution system has begun to take shape. Ten years (from September 1983 to 1993): it has formed a financial institution system with the people's Bank of China as the core, the four major professional banks of instry, agriculture, China and construction as the main body, and other financial institutions coexisting and cooperating. After 1987, there were Bank of communications, China Merchants Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, CITIC and Hengfeng. In 1988, Ping'an, Guangfa and Xingye appeared. Everbright, Huaxia and Shanghai Pudong Development Co., Ltd. appeared in 1992, and the Securities Regulatory Commission was set up in the same year
the stage of building and improving the social * * market financial institution system (since 1994): it has formed a relatively complete financial institution system with "one bank, three meetings" as the leading role, large, medium and small commercial banks as the main body, and a variety of non bank financial institutions as the auxiliary wing. In 1994, three major policy banks (China Development Bank, Export Import Bank of China and Agricultural Development Bank of China) were established. In 1995, Minsheng Bank, the first private commercial bank, was established (which is of great significance). In 1998, urban commercial banks emerged and CIRC was established. In fact, the CBRC appeared relatively late, and it was only established in 2003. Since then, the pattern of "one party, three meetings" has been formed. However, not long ago, the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission merged into the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. You can pay attention to this
from the perspective of evolution, the normative research of finance is often linear
that is, we often take a certain evolution form as the standard (usually developed market economy system, such as the Soviet Union, Germany, the United States and even Japan), describe the progress path of the financial system from non marketization to marketization, from inefficient allocation of financial resources to efficient allocation, and focus on explaining the gap of the standard form and the reasons
In fact, we can find from the development process of China's financial system just now: since 1978, China's financial system has evolved in the direction of marketization, standardization, diversification and internationalization, All kinds of financial institutions show a "network" and "strong connection" business form, that is, the connection degree between banks, banks and other financial institutions, as well as financial sub markets has increased significantly, and the credit connection is increasingly close, mixed and complicatedthe ecological environment of financial instry has also undergone some obvious changes. On the one hand, traditional formal financial institutions seek to speed up transformation and innovation, and strive to seize the opportunity in business strategy, market positioning, management structure, format and proct innovation. On the other hand, a large number of emerging financial institutions have emerged
financial format also presents new characteristics such as real estate financialization, non bank institutions "banking" and asset securitization
The above changes are beyond the imagination of the instry, regulators and policy makers, and will bring a series of impacts:on the positive side, the scale and composition of the financial system have been expanded, the business expansion and financial service capacity of financial institutions have been improved, the financial market has been developed, and innovative payment has developed rapidly. That's what we're going to talk about in financial technology
in a common saying, when the forest is big, there are all kinds of birds. The negative aspects are mainly reflected in the following aspects: the interaction between the
financial system and the real economy tends to be complex, and the role of the financial system in promoting and amplifying asset bubbles is underestimated. p>
the reticulation and strong correlation of the financial system widen the gap between the financial instry and financial supervision, and weaken the effectiveness of traditional supervision. China's current financial supervision system has only been in operation for more than ten years
the transmission path and mechanism of monetary policy through the financial system have changed (the transmission chain of monetary policy has been lengthened or deformed, the conctivity and effectiveness have declined), and the initiative and effectiveness of regulation are facing new constraints. Since its establishment in 1996, the current monetary policy framework has been constantly improved in response to the development of economy and financial market, but the complexity of the financial system in recent years has put it to a new test. Broad money M2 is also impacted by financial deepening, electronic payment and other factors, and further weakened by the shadow banking system
all kinds of cross market, cross business and cross-border behaviors to evade supervision make a variety of risk factors intertwined, such as: capital pool operation with serious mismatch of maturity and procts hides large liquidity risk, proct nesting leads to risk transmission, insufficient shadow banking supervision, local debt, real estate, external shocks, etc., all of which bring great challenges to the stability of the financial system
without comparison, there is no harm, and China's financial system as a whole is relatively backward. This kind of backwardness is mainly reflected in the backwardness of bank innovation: the people's Bank of China announced in October 2015 to abolish the "interest margin protection", while the interest rate of the United States had been completely marketized as early as April 1986, and China was nearly 30 years late
3 the institutional framework and basic problems of China's financial system
Second, the * * third party acts as a credit intermediary to guarantee the realization of asset transfer transactions
the third is the transaction settlement and clearing completed by the centralized clearing organization
Based on this, there are also four problems:1) credit system and trust mechanism. Traditional finance must have strict transaction records to accumulate credit. Without transaction records, it is difficult to achieve financing or loans, because there is no technical means to ensure the safety of transactions between the two sides
(2) transaction settlement takes a long time. The time of traditional financial transactions has been speeding up, but the settlement time is still relatively long, especially for cross-border transactions, which often can not arrive immediately (3) the cost of intermediary service is high. The traditional financial transaction system is very importantThe sudden epidemic situation has pressed the "pause" button for many instries, but science and technology is the most effective means to fight against disasters. Blockchain technology has realized the combination with finance, logistics, supply chain, government affairs, public welfare, urban management and other application fields. At the same time, e to the imperfect development of technology, the role of blockchain in the prevention and control of the epidemic is very limited, so we need to explore deeper scenario applications
from the survey data, the main application directions of instrial blockchain in the post epidemic period include: traceability, financial (including insurance) supervision, collaborative sharing. Deposit certificate, digitization, credit investigation, digital asset transaction, etc
in the main application direction of instrial blockchain in the post epidemic period, more than 70% of enterprises choose traceability and financial (including insurance) supervision, in addition to collaborative sharing and certificate deposit. Digital also has more than 60% of the enterprise choice, compared with the low choice rate of credit reference and digital asset transaction, in which the choice rate of digital asset transaction is less than 50%, only 48%
to avoid risks and promote the healthy development of instrial blockchain
as an emerging technology development direction and instrial development field, blockchain has been widely concerned. The application of instrial blockchain is accelerating, which is mainly reflected in two aspects:
first, in the past, open source systems were represented in technology, and most of them were open source projects oriented to consumers, but now many projects oriented to instry and enterprise characteristics have been added; At the same time, more and more enterprises such as Internet giants and high-tech enterprises begin to enter this field, indicating that the era of instrial blockchain has come
secondly, the emergence of blockchain reces the threshold of trust and the cost of realization, enabling some financial and trade scenarios that could not be realized before to be realized. In this way, some new financial forms can be derived, providing more space for financial innovation
although the application of instrial blockchain is speeding up, it is still in an early stage of development. This is mainly reflected in the fact that blockchain technology alone can not fully solve the trust problems and information island problems between entities, and the emergence of blockchain technology also puts forward new problems for the current law and regulation
because of its decentralized and difficult to tamper with characteristics, blockchain has become a comprehensive subject driven by technology and deeply affecting economy, finance, society, organizational form and governance. In addition, blockchain technology is not yet fully mature in system stability, application security, business model and other aspects, which puts forward requirements for privacy protection and storage capacity of data on the chain
it should be noted that the current blockchain instry has been involved in many technical fields such as it, communication, security, cryptography and so on. What it needs is a kind of compound talents, which poses new challenges to personnel training and school ecation
the short-term impact of blockchain should be treated calmly to avoid overestimation. At the same time, it is necessary to further strengthen laws and regulations and supervision to avoid the possible risks of blockchain technology, so as to promote the healthy development of instrial blockchain
- for more data sources and analysis, please refer to the analysis report on China's blockchain instry market outlook and investment strategic planning of foresight Instry Research Institute
the favorable development prospect of blockchain will drive the overall rise of a shares and become the focus of investment institutions. The rapid development of blockchain will bring new changes to the global personal payment mode, Global trade settlement system, global currency issuance mechanism, and improve the operation efficiency of instrial chain
I. The personal payment method has been subvertedthe future development prospect of blockchain will be connected with global commercial banks and Payment institutions to solve the multi-party communication in cross-border remittance, participate in the transmission of documents and newspapers, and realize the cross regional and cross time synchronous coordination and processing of all parties' information, which can greatly improve our original serial processing among institutions, Efficient processing of global personal payments{ RRRRR}
many organizations pay more attention to how to apply blockchain technology to business, improve business efficiency or service quality, rather than stay in the underlying technology of blockchain itself
however, in order to apply blockchain, we must first master the technology and concept of blockchain, then select the application scenario, select blockchain, be familiar with the development technology of this kind of blockchain, and finally carry out the application development and business transformation of blockchain. The whole cycle is long.
blockchain 1.0 era: digital currency rate of return is the king
blockchain 2.0 era: smart contract provides infrastructure support for upper application development
blockchain 3.0: the subversion of business lies in the transformation of proction relations
all obstacles to the development of human society, Fundamentally speaking, they are all caused by "mutual distrust", especially various economic and financial crises. If human beings can solve the problem of mutual trust, then human beings will complete a very big leap forward
the development of blockchain has graally laid the foundation for this direction. Human beings are entering the era of "smart contract", which is the process of upgrading human trust mechanism. Once the smart contract is reached, human society is facing a new big upgrade. As a value creator, the value created by each indivial can be accurately recorded and the corresponding return can be obtained, There will be less and less mutual interference, and people are really moving towards independence and equality. Human civilization has evolved from "identity society" to "contract society", and blockchain is expected to lead human beings to transition from "contract society" to "smart contract society"
although blockchain has gone out of the conceptual stage, the current situation of blockchain technology development is that the underlying technology is not mature enough and the application scenarios are relatively limited. On the one hand, consensus algorithm and other core technologies of blockchain still have room for optimization and improvement; On the other hand, the processing efficiency of blockchain is difficult to meet the requirements of some high-frequency application environments in reality. Moreover, the current mainstream blockchain technology platforms are originated from foreign countries. Domestic blockchain technology service providers should patiently start from the bottom development, achieve independent and controllable technology, and strive to lead the global blockchain technology development. It still needs a certain period of time. It can be said that the whole domestic trend is waiting for the emergence of a super level blockchain project
the Xueshuo innovation blockchain Technology Workstation of Lianqiao ecation online is the only approved "blockchain Technology Specialty" pilot workstation of "smart learning workshop 2020 Xueshuo innovation workstation" launched by the school planning, construction and development center of the Ministry of ecation of China. Based on providing diversified growth paths for students, the professional station promotes the reform of the training mode of the combination of professional degree research, proction, learning and research, and constructs the applied and compound talent training system.