Shaanxi blockchain Application Association
Blockchain is a new technology, not a disguised form of MLM. It is just claimed by many MLM organizations as "blockchain". In fact, there is no technology. It's just a practice of MLM under the name of "blockchain". The state has issued several announcements to crack down on this kind of MLM. The following is the Xinhua news report on MLM of blockchain:
blockchain is not equal to virtual currency, but also has security risks. Behind the popularity, there is exaggeration with "ulterior motives". Only by removing the flashiness, can the blockchain return to its real application value
invest 80000 yuan, change to 800000 yuan after three months? Shenzhen police cracked a huge fund-raising fraud. Under the guise of blockchain concept and 10 times income, thousands of investors were deeply involved in the case, involving up to 307 million yuan. Under the "veil of mystery" of the blockchain, the illegal elements have taken advantage of their own tricks, and the blockchain has become a "signboard" of economic crimes such as fraud and pyramid selling
why is the blockchain repeatedly "misused" by illegal activities such as pyramid selling fraud? In addition to "unknown", what is the "function" of blockchain technology itself? Since the beginning of this year, with the increase of supervision and the cooling of currency speculation, new opportunities have been brought to the development of blockchain. How about the implementation of blockchain commercial "application" The reporter of outlook news weekly recently concted an investigation
when the three-month "capital release period" promised by the trading platform expired and the staff began to "kick" in the QQ group, Tang Haiyan, who lives in Bao'an District of Shenzhen City, realized that she might have been cheated
previously, Tang Haiyan invested 80000 yuan to buy a virtual currency called "ordinary silver coin" under the introction of her classmates“ The other side said that this currency is the most advanced blockchain technology at present, with Tibetan tea as collateral. He also showed me the "technical white paper". I didn't understand blockchain, so I didn't read it carefully. "
although she doesn't know about blockchain and virtual currency, the high investment income makes Tang Haiyan full of expectations. She told reporters that companies issuing "ordinary silver coins" will regularly split the virtual currency according to the ratio of 1:10, which means that each split will make the value of "ordinary silver coins" in the hands of investors expand 10 times. As long as after a split, her investment of 80000 yuan is equivalent to the purchase of 800000 yuan worth of "ordinary silver coins", which can be sold on the trading platform to obtain huge profits
according to the rules of the trading platform, the newly purchased "ordinary silver coin" cannot be traded immediately, and it must be frozen on the platform for three months before it can enter the "release period". However, after three months, not only did Tang Haiyan not wait for the assets to double, but the 80000 yuan frozen on the platform could not be used for trading
"other investors began to question the authenticity of this investment in QQ group. As a result, the staff of the company kicked these investors out one by one, which made me feel bad." She said
The fact also proves Tang HaiYan's intuition. At the end of March 2018, Shenzhen police detected a huge fund-raising fraud, with the amount of fraud funds as high as 307 million yuan. In this case, Shenzhen Puyin blockchain Group Co., Ltd. involved in the case issued virtual currency in the mode of "blockchain + Tibetan tea" to obtain public deposits. Tang Haiyan was one of the thousands of victimsShenzhen police investigation found that the company claimed that investors could buy and sell "ordinary silver coins" on the virtual trading platform "jucoin net" to earn a price difference
. In fact, the change of its trading price is that the company used investors' investment funds for behind the scenes operation, and once raised the price of "ordinary silver coin" from 0.5 yuan to 10 yuan, so that investors can taste some sweetness. When a large number of investors entered the market, the company continued to cash out through malicious manipulation of the price trend of "ordinary silver coin", which eventually led to the worthlessness of "ordinary silver coin" in the hands of investors
since 2018, engaging in fraud and pyramid selling under the banner of blockchain has become a common "routine" in new criminal tactics. In April 2018, Jinan police dropped a pyramid selling Gang under the guise of "western development", "national poverty alleviation", "original stocks", "blockchain" and "e-commerce", arrested more than 10 major suspects, frozen more than 100 accounts involved, and seized more than 300 million yuan of funds involved
according to Jinan police, huileyi e-commerce company designed a fake virtual disk on the Internet on the ground that the country is vigorously developing the big data instry, and released a variety of virtual currencies such as "precious currency" and "precious currency"
under the guise of giving away, they presented a certain amount of virtual currency to the New MLM staff, with the price of tens of yuan each. Then, through artificial manipulation, they appreciated the virtual currency all the way to more than 100 yuan or even hundreds of yuan, attracting people who did not know the truth to join. Finally, they "cut leeks" through the periodic fluctuation of the so-called "devaluation" of virtual currency, Finally, the purpose of seeking illegal interests is achieved
in Xi'an, a few days ago, the local police successfully cracked a huge network pyramid selling case under the banner of blockchain. According to the police, the suspect, Zheng Mou, has paid a high salary to the 9 network members, such as Zhang and Lee. Since March 28, 2018, he has gathered pyramid selling and network pyramid selling as a means to sell the virtual Datang coins at the consumption era network platform at the price of 3 yuan each, and manipulate the appreciation rate; p>
at the same time, promotion meetings were held in many cities at home and abroad to attract members. According to the development of members, 28 level agents were set up. In just 18 days, the gang developed more than 13000 registered members. At present, it has been found that the case involves 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, and the fund involved is as high as 86 million yuan
according to Tencent's 2017 pyramid selling situation awareness white paper released by Tencent security joint laboratory, in recent years, all kinds of overseas capital disk, virtual currency and ICO (initial public offering token financing of blockchain project) projects have emerged in an endless stream, which hide many risks such as illegal issuance, untrue projects, cross-border money laundering, fraud and pyramid selling, As a result, a large number of funds flow overseas. Once the market collapses, runs away or loses contact, investors often have no way to complain and the losses are difficult to recover. For example, Baichuan coin, mark coin, beta coin, dark coin, etc
the reporter of lookout Newsweek interviewed in Guangdong, Shandong, Shanghai and other places and learned that most people know that the concept of blockchain is very popular, but they "don't know where it is", and there are different opinions on the specific functions of blockchain: some people think it is used for "investment and financing", "buying and selling currency", while others think it is "a major invention of the same magnitude as the steam engine", Some entrepreneurs are even more eager to seize this "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get rich."
many people in the instry said that it is precisely because people have many misunderstandings about blockchain that criminals have opportunities to fish in troubled waters and mislead investors
First, blockchain is not equal to virtual currency. By the end of last year, the number of domestic ICO participants and the total volume of transactions have doubled, a large number of digital currency exchanges have fled overseas, and the agent investment mode has involved more ordinary people in high-risk investmentin many instries, we media and celebrities form interest alliances with issuers and digital exchanges to endorse and create public opinion for the "air currency" project. In December last year, nine departments including the people's Bank of China identified ICO as "suspected of illegal fund-raising, financial fraud, pyramid selling and other illegal and criminal activities"
in the interview, many people told our reporter that the existence of token has built a set of rights and interests mechanism for the development of blockchain technology, which is indispensable for stimulating the prosperity of blockchain applications“ The market practice in the past five years has proved that blockchain applications without equity mechanism are just like market economy without computers connected to the Internet and money, with greatly reced application scenarios and development speed. " An investor in Shanghai said
in fact, the token represented by bitcoin is only one of the earliest procts to verify the blockchain technology, and the two can not be equated, and the existence of token has obviously negative effects on the development of blockchain
Xiao Wei, chief engineer of network blockchain, told this reporter that the myth of ICO's sudden wealth shakes the R & D concentration of blockchain technical talents, and the myth of "sudden wealth" with hundreds of times of return tests the patience of blockchain technical R & D talents“ Many of the "comrades in arms" in the circle who used to do research and development of blockchain technology have gone to issue coins, and now few of them can insist on doing research and development and application of technology. "
Xu zewei, Secretary of the Party committee of Beijing Internet Finance Instry Association, said that under the background of China's ban on ICO, many domestic start-ups promoting blockchain applications are "selling dog meat with sheep's pawn" and financing through concept packaging of worthless tokens“ ICO has polluted the good atmosphere of innovation and entrepreneurship, and created a kind of speculative proct. Many young people are not thinking about entrepreneurship, but are thinking about issuing money, which makes us have the illusion of getting rich overnight. "
at present, more and more people in the instry begin to think about whether the development of blockchain must rely on the issuance of tokens to achieve incentives. Guo Dagang, Secretary General of Beijing Internet Finance Instry Association, told this reporter that the so-called incentive mechanism is only the theoretical basis for the project party to issue tokens for itself. Huo Xuewen, director of Beijing Municipal Bureau of financial work, also believes that if blockchain does not get rid of the dilemma of issuing currency, it will never find a legal landing mechanism
secondly, blockchain is not omnipotent and its security is at risk. Blockchain is generally considered to achieve three functions:
first, the data stored on the blockchain can not be tampered or forged, and the data has high credibility and credibility; Second, the whole process of the transaction can be traced, which can achieve accurate responsibility tracking; Third, the embedded smart contract in the blockchain can be executed automatically based on the contract, so as to improve work efficiency and rece the risk of default. It is generally believed that blockchain has broad application prospects in finance, logistics, trade and other fields
in fact, blockchain is not omnipotent, and its function has many limitations. It is generally believed that, according to the characteristics of cryptography, in order to tamper or falsify in the blockchain, more than 51% of the nodes need to be controlled in theory. When there are enough nodes in the blockchain, it is difficult to tamper with the trust creation mechanism widely participated by the public
However, in reality, digital currency exchanges are frequently attacked or even stolen. On June 20, 2018, bithumb exchange of South Korea announced on its official website that the exchange had been attacked by hackers and stolen 35 billion won, about 32 million US dollars of cryptocurrency Ji Xinhua, known as the first generation of "hackers" in China, said that the blockchain will continue to face attacks, and the process of uploading data to the blockchain is prone to information leakage. Some people in the instry worry that once the super computing power of quantum computing is realized, it will also have a direct impact on the blockchainZhao Yao, a special researcher of the Institute of finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that the academic community has confirmed as early as 2013 that the blockchain is not perfect and there are many "cheating" strategies. As long as there are enough economic incentives, controlling attacks of more than 51% nodes does not only exist in theory
Zeng Guang, Secretary General of Shenzhen Internet Finance Association, said that the blockchain technology itself does not have the ability to do so
it can form an instrial chain. Recently, the SMIC blockchain launched by Changsha high tech Zone is to recruit enterprises to join the chain, so that enterprises can get together.
This year's A-share market deals with all kinds of problems
from Guizhou Maotai with 1200 yuan, to Hengrui pharmaceutical with 99 times P / E ratio, to soy sauce stocks with 300 billion market value
any kind of white horse stocks may fail you. Only the core assets of the consumer instry are stable happiness
However, judging from the traditional valuation, the price to earnings ratio (PE) and price to book ratio (PB) of the big consumer sector are not cheap any more:① PE of the food and beverage instry is 32.17 times, reaching 68% of the historical percentage, and Pb is 6.5 times, reaching 81% of the historical percentage
2. The price earnings ratio of the Baijiu liquor segment is 32.17 times higher than that of the historical average. p> Is the valuation of consumer stocks too high
Guotai Junan retail team recently released "stick to the consumer leader, share China's growth", which analyzes in detail the changes in the valuation logic of consumer stocks
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remember the "beautiful 50" in America
before discussing whether the valuation of consumer white horse stocks is too high, we might as well review the "beautiful 50" market in the United States in the early 1970s
the so-called "beautiful 50" refers to the 50 large cap stocks in the New York Stock Exchange in the United States from the late 1960s to the early 1970s, among which there are many consumer brands that we are still familiar with, such as McDonald's, Coca Cola and so on
One of the most important characteristics of "beautiful 50" is that high profit and high PE exist at the same timesince 1971, the stock price and valuation level of "Meili 50" have risen rapidly. At the end of 1972, the median valuation was more than 40 times, and the highest valuation of Polaroid was even more than 90 times, while the median valuation of S & P 500 was only 12 times
throughout the market, it is not difficult to find that consumer stocks are especially favored by big funds. Analyzing the reasons behind it, we think that there are two points:
1. The business model is clear and the financial content is simple. 2. The economic downturn is more risk averse
still takes America's "beautiful 50" as an example. There are three main reasons for the ending of the "beautiful 50" market:
1) the huge fiscal deficit and credit expansion in the United States have accumulated a high inflation bubble, and the food crisis has triggered CPI upward, and the Federal Reserve has had to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy; < / p> The oil crisis broke out in 1973, which led to the further deterioration of inflation, the rising cost of raw materials eroded the profits of enterprises, the gross profit rate and profit growth rate of enterprises both went down, and the stock market turned from bull to bear
3) since 1973, the profit growth and roe of "Meili 50" began to decline, and the stability of profit was questioned by the market
we believe that the phenomenon of "group heating" of A-share institutions can only be broken in two cases:
1) the performance of consumption leaders continues to be lower than expected, but at present, the revenue and net profit of Baima shares such as Guizhou Maotai, Wuliangye, Gree Electric Appliance and Midea Group keep steady growth
2) like the "Meili 50" in the United States, a shares encounter large external changes, such as the overall escalation of Sino US friction or the global economic cliff recession, but the probability is very small at present
at present, the possibility of both cases is very small
how to configure later
in terms of follow-up allocation, we suggest mining investment opportunities from two main lines
1) efficiency in terms of supply: the leading enterprises with high operating efficiency, steady performance growth and obvious competitive advantage will continue to grow by squeezing the market share of small and medium-sized enterprises
2) dividend from demand: there is still a huge consumer demand dividend in the third and fourth tier market. We are optimistic about the enterprises with strong growth, instry logic and income support, especially the leading companies whose strategic focus is expanding to the low tier market and can enhance the market share through their own management and cost advantages
summary of this paper:
1 in the traditional sense, the big consumer sector is no longer cheap
However, when the consumer instry develops to a certain stage, its leading stocks should not simply judge the valuation level according to the price earnings ratio (PE)3 the valuation system of consumer instry is changing from PE model to DDM model. Once the consumer leader has established a deep enough "moat", the steady growth, market share increase, profit improvement and continuous dividend will be enough to support its valuation level
4 domestic funds and overseas funds maintain a high enthusiasm in the allocation of large consumer instries. The reason why consumer stocks are favored by big funds is that their business model is clear, their financial content is simple, and they are more risk averse in the period of economic downturn
5 the group market of consumer stocks is not easy to be broken in the short term. In terms of follow-up allocation, we should pay attention to leading enterprises from the perspective of supply; From the perspective of demand, focus on the enterprises with strong growth, instry logic and income support