BTC replaces gold
bitcoin, a blockchain based digital currency, is often regarded as a global safe haven asset like gold. In this age of global turmoil, even gold has become unreliable and may be confiscated as India has. Some people have begun to think that bitcoin can replace gold, because bitcoin not only has the reserve capacity of gold, but also has some capabilities that gold does not have, such as low handling charges, rapid transfer capacity, decentralization and so on. With the increasing popularity of bitcoin and the decreasing volatility, the status of gold has been threatened
will bitcoin shake the status of gold?
gold has a long history, almost as long as the history of human civilization, and has withstood numerous tests in history. Bitcoin is less than a decade old, but its value has risen sharply. There is no support behind bitcoin. Of course, since the end of the gold standard, there has been no support from other currencies, except that there is no support from the central bank behind bitcoin. It's hard to predict whether bitcoin will exist in the next decade, a hundred years or even a thousand years.
Shelley Goldberg, a well-known investment consultant working for brevan Howard asset management and Roubini global economics, believes that as an analogy, it is like soybean futures and Intel stock. Many people may think that gold and bitcoin are both currencies because they can be used to buy goods and services. Or, both are commodities, because trading commodity futures needs to meet the minimum standards of account opening funds, and comply with the relevant futures and option contracts. But gold is a commodity, bitcoin and blockchain are technologies
in what unit are abstract things measured
Stefan Weiler, vice president of goldmoney, a global financial services and technology company, believes that gold is real and has physical and measurable natural advantages, rather than abstract man-made money, including fiat money. Therefore, gold has measurable mass and weight to determine its unit (gram, Troy, ounces, etc.). But bitcoin doesn't have this feature. Weiler pointed out that "abstract things can only be measured in their own units.". So the bitcoin value of "weighing" is literally not comparable to the value of gold
Stefan has worked in the world's top financial institutions for more than 10 years. He was senior director of commodity strategy at Goldman Sachs and research director of commodity hedge fund BBL commodities. In 2014, the hedge fund gained 51.3% return and won the title of "new fund of the year"
Weiler explains this problem by comparing the units between bitcoin and gold:
when comparing the units of gold and bitcoin, we must first define which unit to measure, gram... Kilogram... Or ton? Or ounces? Weiler uses the market capitalization of the two companies (apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and seaboard (nysemkt: SEB) as a metaphor to illustrate how unit size / amount distorts the price: comparing the price of a unit of bitcoin and an ounce of gold is a bit like comparing seaboard's shares (US $4179 per share) with Apple's shares (US $116 per share), and concludes that, Seaboard's market value is about 35 times that of apple. Considering only the stock prices of the two companies without considering the shares (i.e. units) issued, it is obviously not enough. Weiler believes that a similar situation will occur when comparing gold and bitcoin
neither is money
by definition, money is a widely accepted means of payment as a medium of exchange. The classification of gold as a commodity currency goes back a lot to the early days of capitalism, when people could trade gold for cattle. But this model doesn't work because gold is often in short supply. Gold is a tradable tool and asset-backed currency, because it can be exchanged for a certain amount of US dollars, but if you take the gold nugget to the grocery store to buy something, the grocery store will not sell it to you. Unless we go back to the Bretton Woods system when gold was fixed against the US dollar, gold is not directly linked to any currency
there is no doubt that bitcoin is becoming an acceptable means of payment both offline and online, such as offline stores, home depot and online transactions, such as expedia.com, which are also accepted by many countries, such as Estonia and Denmark. But it is still not widely accepted around the world
money is national legal, which means that each Congress uses it in monetary policy. The Fed can print as many dollars as it can to stimulate the economy. At present, more than 50 banking organizations in the world have joined the R3 blockchain alliance, but bitcoin does not rely on the government, banks and other third parties
unlike money, both gold and bitcoin are in limited supply. The gold supply of the earth depends on the underground reserves, and the creation limit of bitcoin is 21 million
Goldberg believes that although the value of bitcoin exceeds that of gold for the first time, there is no comparability between bitcoin and gold
the two are not irreplaceable
gold was first used around 700 BC, and after that, nothing with the same properties as gold has been found or created. Metallurgists have made alloys that look and feel like gold, but they are not gold because they do not meet physical delivery standards. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has numerous alternatives, because countless "altcoin" cryptocurrencies have sprung up to challenge it, such as Ethernet, which follows Casper rules
according to cryptocoincharts, the market value of 3694 cryptocurrencies has reached 27.8 billion US dollars. Of course, bitcoin has an overwhelming market share, but who knows what other cryptocurrency popularization or some technology will challenge and destroy the current market in the future. Not long ago, many bitcoins were stolen from Mt. GOx exchange. Last summer, a project using blockchain technology was hacked and lost millions of dollars. So there is still room for improvement
gold is a commodity, but bitcoin is not. Gold is a basic commodity or hard asset that can be used in business, and it can be used as a material to proce other commodities. People can also use gold for physical delivery and then make it into some other form for use. Although bitcoin is storable, it is not physical and cannot be held, felt or transferred. " Goldberg said
are bitcoin and gold risk averse
for centuries, gold has been regarded as a safe haven asset or used as a hedge against inflation, but this attribute is not permanent, because there are many alternatives, such as the Swiss franc and tips. Bitcoin is different. In fact, China's three largest bitcoin exchanges recently stopped withdrawing money under pressure from the people's Bank of China for fear that bitcoin would be used to transfer money abroad. Bitcoin has not experienced inflation since its birth, so its anti inflation property has not been verified< However, they are similar. Shelley Goldberg believes that bitcoin and gold are rare, their prices may be volatile, and each serves as an alternative investment to those lacking confidence in legal tender and monetary policy. Bitcoin trading is not as easy as gold, because people have to buy bitcoin through online trading platforms or invest in over-the-counter bitcoin trusts. There may be a bitcoin ETF in the near future, as the US Securities and Exchange Commission is considering a proposal to launch an exchange traded fund backed by bitcoin. A final decision will be made by this Saturday
on February 14, SEC officials met with brother Tyler Winklevoss and brother Cameron Winklevoss, advocates of bitcoin ETF, to discuss the above proposal. The market expects that once bitcoin ETF is listed, it will attract a large amount of capital investment, reaching at least $300 million. With this development, bitcoin will become an easier trade
cryptocurrency supporters believe that bitcoin is the medium of exchange and storage value in the future. However, the volatility of bitcoin is a problem when only the downlink deviation is measured instead of the standard deviation& quot; This method better shows the risks of bitcoin becoming a widely used currency, "Weiler said
in his analysis, Weiler believes that "the volatility of bitcoin is significantly higher than that of gold and currency
Weiler believes that although bitcoin's short-term performance is impressive, it still has serious limitations in terms of utility and savings compared with gold and precious metals. At the same time, Shelley Goldberg also believes that the relative value of bitcoin is basically nothing except speculation. In addition to the expectation that trump will relax the financial regulatory environment in the United States, China, India, Venezuela and other countries have tightened the supervision of bitcoin. Therefore, with the currency instability in emerging markets, the uncertainty of Trump's policy and the expectation of stock market adjustment, there are still good reasons to buy gold.
Bitcoin will never replace gold
this view does not mean that I am against bitcoin or I am not optimistic about the development prospect of digital currency. On the contrary, I am optimistic about the development of digital currency. However, no matter how much bitcoin and other digital currencies develop, they will never replace gold. The reasons are as follows:
first, gold reserves are limited and there is no substitute, Bitcoin can be replaced at any time
at present, about 170000 tons of gold have been mined in the whole earth, and the gold reserves of all countries in the world are 33259.2 tons, and the rest are used in jewelry, instry and private investment fields. With more and more gold mining, the proven reserves of gold will be less and less, so gold will be more precious in the future
But bitcoin is different. Bitcoin is just a kind of virtual currency. To put it bluntly, it is a computer program. People can develop digital currency similar to bitcoin at any time, so bitcoin can be easily replaced From this, we can see that although the US dollar is also a world currency, the US does have a very large proportion of gold foreign exchange reserves, which in turn further strengthens the status of the US dollar
so in general, the status of gold can never be replaced by bitcoin< br />