Bitcoin view

1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

2.

Since the advent of bitcoin, it has been favored by many investors, and its price has soared from less than one dollar to tens of thousands of dollars. The price of bitcoin has quadrupled this year with the epidemic and the US election, and many investors have made a lot of money< I personally think that the price of bitcoin has increased so fast because of the US election. Many funds want to avoid risks, so I chose bitcoin. Bitcoin prices have been rising and falling, and doubling bitcoin prices is a normal phenomenon. The speculation of bitcoin is obvious, so we should be cautious

1. The soaring price of bitcoin is related to the U.S. election. Many funds choose bitcoin for investment in order to avoid risks< p> The price of bitcoin has been fluctuating since it fell as high as US $20000. This year, with the development of the epidemic, bitcoin has ushered in a wave of growth, but the growth is not fast. Because of the stalemate in the US election, people's mood is relatively high. In order to avoid risks, a lot of funds choose bitcoin, so bitcoin has a big rise. The soaring price of bitcoin has a lot to do with the insecurity of the external environment. Once the external environment is stable, the price of bitcoin will fall{ RRRRR}

if you have any other opinions on the price of special currency, please leave a message for discussion

3. Throughout history, there have been cases of gold, goods and even land confiscation in times of crisis. It is also disturbing that, as we have seen in Venezuela, people there are struggling with high inflation. Sometimes it is extremely difficult to convert money into another currency, which makes people feel helpless and can only watch their life savings be worthless. Bitcoin is very different. It is in electronic form and has no boundary restrictions. It can be transferred without any intermediary. Anyone who connects to a mobile device or the Internet can use it. All transactions are permanently recorded in the public ledger, and there is no dispute about ownership
in a recent article in the New York Times, a Venezuelan economist described how bitcoin became a part of Venezuela's daily life, so that on a mainstream bitcoin trading platform, Venezuela's trading volume ranked second only to Russia in the world. But bitcoin is not just used to protect wealth in extreme conditions. In general, bitcoin is also an excellent choice for portfolio diversification, and it should be seen as part of a comprehensive wealth preservation strategy.

4. Bitcoin's new wallet, bitcoin core, is actually used to store bitcoin, just like coin purse
you can search directly on the Internet, and then find the relevant website. The website is the wallet address
users are required to register, and personal accounts can be used in the background; You can also find the addresses of bitcoin, Leyte and other currencies.

5. Jiangsu Rongze e-license blockchain platform and ZTE Shenzhen's shared government platform are excellent platforms. Tencent, Jingdong and ant have also made efforts in this direction, and there is no specific platform to be implemented.

6. Bitcoin system mainly uses hash algorithm and asymmetric encryption algorithm in cryptography to ensure the security of the transaction: on the premise of the transaction information being open in the whole network, the one-way property of hash algorithm protects the privacy information of both sides of the transaction; Asymmetric encryption algorithm can ensure that your bitcoin will not be transferred to other people's pocket ring the transaction< In theory, these cryptography principles can guarantee the realization of bitcoin's basic functions as a "decentralized currency", but it has some problems:
the first problem is system security:
we say that in the world of bitcoin, all information is expressed in the form of code through hash operation
then, where there is code, there must be loopholes, which give hackers an opportunity to take advantage of
as early as 2010, shortly after the emergence of bitcoin, a hacker took advantage of the vulnerability of bitcoin's core software to create hundreds of billions of bitcoins. It's like a person mastering the banknote printing machine. It's terrible. Or, hackers directly hack into our computers and steal our private keys, which will also cause us heavy losses
the second problem is that the transaction processing speed is too slow:
in the bitcoin system, there are up to seven transactions per second, which obviously can not meet the normal transaction requirements. We need to know that Alipay, Taobao and WeChat can handle hundreds of thousands or even millions of transactions every second. A deal can only be processed in 1-2 seconds. If bitcoin is used for daily money, then we will pay 1-2 yuan to handle it successfully.
the third problem is that bitcoin mining consumes too much power: Mining requires professional mining machines, which have high computing power, but consume a huge amount of power. Moreover, according to the current market, it is difficult to recover the cost of buying a mining machine for a year. Therefore, some people doubt: what is the significance of consuming so much power to maintain a system with such slow trading speed
the fourth problem is the regulatory attitude:
at present, the attitude of various countries towards bitcoin is very polarized: the supporting countries and retail stores accept bitcoin for payment, and there are also bitcoin ATMs; Countries that don't support it will crack down on it
to sum up, if bitcoin is measured by a monetary system, it must have various shortcomings. However, we can not deny the brilliance of bitcoin: bitcoin represents not only a new set of "decentralized" currency system, but also the origin of blockchain technology and a new ideology, which has far-reaching influence
from the perspective of bitcoin's own function currency:
bitcoin is the largest digital currency so far. It is an important application in the era of blockchain 1.0 and the first application of blockchain. Under the premise of decentralization, bitcoin realizes the functions of digital currency in the stages of issuance, payment and circulation, which is a new means of payment
from the perspective of bitcoin's underlying technology, blockchain:
with the increasing attention of bitcoin, blockchain, as its underlying technology, is becoming more and more well known by the public. Blockchain has graally separated from digital currency and penetrated into many commercial fields. Different instries hope to apply bitcoin Technology to our real life, Through a variety of application scenarios, let us get a better experience
from the perspective of bitcoin ideology:
it has set off a great ideological storm. The "decentralization" and consensus mechanism of bitcoin is a new ideology in the current centralized society. Throughout history, whether the Renaissance or the enlightenment, these are all ideological changes under specific historical conditions. The popularization of these new ideas and new consciousness will take a long time to be accepted by all. In terms of the influence of bitcoin:
digital currency has been accepted and recognized by some national markets, resulting in a large number of digital currency trading platforms and the emergence of a large number of counterfeit currencies. These counterfeit currencies have further evolved into a new financing mode, writing the myth of sudden wealth, which has also led to the proliferation of cheating under the banner of digital currency, such as air currency and pyramid selling currency
in short, bitcoin has outlined a grand blueprint, that is, the currency in the future will no longer depend on the release of central banks, but on the global currency unification. However, from the current situation, the blockchain 1.0 era, represented by bitcoin, only meets the basic functions of digital currency and cannot be popularized to other instries
however, in a word, bitcoin: there are shortcomings in the United States and China, and it is hard to cover up the edge.

7. At the same time, don't forget to work and live a down-to-earth life
don't invest in bitcoin as a just need. This is my personal experience.

8. The general idea of "fragmentation" is to change each block in the blockchain network into a sub blockchain, in which several (currently 100) collations (which can be called "check blocks", in order to distinguish them from the concept of blocks in the scenario of fragmentation) packed with transaction data can be accommodated, and these collations finally form a block on the main chain; Because these collations exist as blocks as a whole, their data must be packaged and generated by a specific miner, which is essentially the same as the blocks in the existing protocol, so there is no need to add additional network confirmation. In this way, the trading capacity of each block will be expanded about 100 times; And this kind of design is also concive to future expansion. At present, the whole expansion plan is roughly divided into four stages; This article only introces the implementation details of the first phase. Transferred from Jianshu. Currency exchange of digital currency

9. I will analyze my personal cognition of the value of comparative currency from two perspectives:
1. A little thought on currency
at present, the currency issued by all countries in the world is basically credit currency. For example, the US dollar has been decoupled from gold since the Bretton Woods system. It is generally believed that the value of the modern dollar is supported by the national credit, or national strength and military strength of the United States
however, this is specious. Because the national strength and military strength of the United States cannot be quantified, who can tell me how much the national strength and military strength of the United States are worth? Since it is impossible to quantify, how can we ensure that the US dollar is not printed too much? In fact, there is no guarantee. On the other hand, it says "in God we trust" on the dollar, which is to tell you clearly that the dollar is actually a kind of faith. It's like trump supporters shouting, "America! USA! ", People's trust in the dollar is not purely rational, but a mixture of rationality, pride, sacredness, speciousness and habitual thinking
and this kind of trust is also fragile. In recent years, for example, the Thai baht and ruble have dropped by 40% or 50% overnight, which is also common. Even more outrageous, for example, the government of the Republic of China basically cheated on the golden yuan
bitcoin is also true. Its value comes from trust, but it is not backed by the government's credit endorsement. The letter of bitcoin is a more pure letter, because it is more invisible than the legal coin, but there is a small group of people who believe in it, such as me. This kind of letter comes from the simplicity and strength of bitcoin technology, from the ideas beyond the times contained in it, from the dissatisfaction with the existing monetary system, and from the natural yearning for progress of human beings
2. Bitcoin price and reflexivity
Buffett's value investment theory is very popular: because of people's fear or greed, the price of a thing may temporarily be higher or lower than its value, but it will eventually return to the value itself
Soros's view is that because of the fragility of human nature, a thing can never return to its value. That is to say, the correction must be over correct. When the value of a thing is absolutely undervalued, then in the process of rising, people's awareness of its rising is constantly strengthened, which often leads to crazy buying, and the final price will rise to its own value, and vice versa
in this process, the rise of price leads to people's pursuit of a thing, and people's rising expectation will continue to push up the price of this thing
Soros calls it reflexivity
for example, there is a prophet in the village. He told us that gold would go up and we should go to buy gold. Everyone flocked to buy gold. The supply of gold was in short supply, and it rose as expected. So everyone said that the prophet was right
this process has nothing to do with the basic value of gold or the actual demand for gold
if you look at it with a magnifying glass. In this process, the bullish view of gold is constantly strengthened. Because gold also rose in the process. If in the first rise callback, someone sold. When it goes higher for the second time, this person will feel that his operation is particularly stupid, so he will not easily sell when he buys again next time. Even if he sells again next time, there will always be a time when he will "learn to be smart" and no longer sell
man is also a social animal. So this expectation of rising will continue to spread and "learn" from each other, aggravating this weakness of human nature
often when a bubble burst, most people could not escape. A few rational people can run away, a few win the majority and make a lot of money. In the book mob, it is said that the IQ of a group is often lower than that of a person. In management, this is called herding. In China's stock market, this is called "retail dividend". You don't see how many people earn money every day on the platform, even wealth is free.