Current situation and future development trend of bitcoin
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
In terms of technological innovation, people who know blockchain are very supportive; About the future trend of bitcoin, as the earliest blockchain proct, it has been basically in the market. As for how big a pie there will be in the future, you can see my share
[John McPhee, the head of IBM and the board of directors of PayPal all predict that bitcoin will reach $1 million]
in recent days, the market has slowed down temporarily. However, this has not deterred investors. As previously reported, although some bearish pressure is forming, bulls have responded well and kept prices stable
since bitcoin failed to break through $5450, bitcoin bulls have kept the price above $5000. Recently, after a stable weekend, there was almost no report on the price trend, and the market rose appropriately. Now all attention is turning to $5200 as the next key target, and finally retesting the resistance level of $5450
as of April 15, the marginal revenue of bitcoin was less than 2%, and the transaction price was $5160. Earlier in the day, it had risen to a high of $5193, but failed to reach the target of $5200
Then bitcoin fell back to US $5157. The high degree of stability and flexibility that bulls maintain and push prices up shows how strong the current bull market is. As long as bitcoin can remain above $5000 and avoid a sharp correction, the bullish trend will continue to get more support and push prices higherthe price of bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million
a few weeks after PayPal first invested in blockchain technology, its latest board of directors made a bold price forecast for bitcoin. Wences Casares, a member of PayPal's board, said bitcoin could reach $1 million in the next 10 years. IBM blockchain & amp; Jesse Lund and John McAfee, directors of digital currency, have also made such predictions, which many believe are overconfident
in my (subjective) opinion, the chance of success is at least 50%. If bitcoin really succeeds, a bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in seven to 10 years
the growth of bitcoin has driven Shanzhai coin
with the rise of bitcoin, most Shanzhai coins are also rising. Although the income is relatively low, most Shanzhai coins have about 1% to 4% income, but this growth is likely to continue
before the deadline, lightcoin's LTC was one of the best performing currencies. In the past few weeks, the performance of this coin has been extraordinary, which seems to determine the price trend of Shanzhai coin again
XRP and eth are also on the rise, but the marginal returns are 0.30% and 1.26% respectively. XRP's short-term goal is to return above $0.33, and its long-term goal is above $0.4. On the other hand, ETH hopes to climb back to more than $170, becoming its next target, and its preferred position is more than $190
Domestic trading platforms continue to expand the proportion of trading volume in the market, which is in sharp contrast to the "running away" storm encountered by foreign bitcoin trading websites. Mt. GOx, once the world's largest bitcoin trading website, collapsed (on February 25, 2014, Mt. GOx was "declared" bankrupt and could no longer log on. On March 28, Mt. GOx officially filed for bankruptcy, and announced on its website on March 3, 2014 that about 850000 bitcoins were illegally transferred e to the exploitation of bitcoin system vulnerabilities.), It has attracted the attention of bitcoin investors all over the world. Subsequently, flexcoin, a bitcoin trading website in Singapore, suddenly went out of business. Due to the bankruptcy of Mt. GOx, bitcoin transactions on domestic websites also showed obvious fluctuations. On February 25, the domestic bitcoin price once dropped from nearly 3600 yuan to 3050 yuan (a few days later, the bitcoin price returned to around 3865 yuan). In spite of the international panic, the sharp drop in prices can not stop the enthusiasm of Chinese domestic investors
China's bitcoin trading websites have benefited from the storm. According to some data, the trading volume of bitcoin in mainland China now accounts for 70% ~ 80% of the global trading volume, and even the largest trading platform of bitcoin has been taken away by China's bitcoin trading websites. RMB is the second largest currency in the bitcoin exchange market, only next to the US dollar, accounting for 1 / 3. China's market has become a gathering place for bitcoin players. Some experts believe that the biggest reason for the rise in the price of bitcoin is the large number of Chinese buyers. According to the volume data of the largest bitcoin trading platform in China, after the collapse of Mt. GOx on February 25, 2014, the domestic trading volume dropped by nearly 7%, with 334562 transactions (about 1.1 billion yuan) on that day. After that, the trading volume graally stabilized. By March 4, the trading volume rose by 14.05%, reaching 339830 (1.4 billion yuan). From February 25 to March 13, the trading volume in 17 days was 9 billion yuan, 16% higher than that in the previous 17 days. On March 21, 2014, some media reported that the central bank issued a document on March 18, 2014 demanding that all bitcoin transactions be stopped before April 15, 2014. In response to this rumor, the central bank said publicly on the evening of March 21, 2014 through its microblog that it was a false report< At the same time, the central bank said that bitcoin's attitude has been clearly stated in the notice on preventing bitcoin risks (hereinafter referred to as the "notice") issued by the people's Bank of China and other five ministries and commissions
according to the circular issued by the central bank in December 2013, although bitcoin is known as "currency", it is not a real currency because it is not issued by the monetary authority and has no monetary attributes such as legal compensation and compulsion. In nature, bitcoin should be a specific virtual commodity, which does not have the same legal status as currency, and can not and should not be used as currency in the market
the circular also requires that all financial institutions and Payment institutions in China shall not carry out bitcoin related business. Financial institutions and Payment institutions shall not price procts or services with bitcoin, buy or sell bitcoin or act as central counterparties, underwrite insurance business related to bitcoin or include bitcoin into the scope of insurance liability, or directly or indirectly provide customers with other services related to bitcoin
including bitcoin registration, trading, clearing, settlement and other services for customers; Accept bitcoin or use bitcoin as a payment and settlement tool; Carry out bitcoin and RMB and foreign currency exchange services; Carry out bitcoin storage, custody, mortgage and other services; Issuing financial procts related to bitcoin; Take bitcoin as the investment target of trust, fund, etc. Official supervision
on the afternoon of December 5, 2013, the Central Bank of China and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to guard against bitcoin risks, requiring financial institutions and Payment institutions not to price procts or services with bitcoin. Within an hour of the news, bitcoin prices fell by 35%. At that time, as soon as the policies of the five ministries and commissions came out, the survival space of domestic bitcoin trading websites was greatly doubted. This day was jokingly called "the darkest day for domestic bitcoin entrepreneurs". However, the official policy has not affected the vigorous development of domestic trading platform. These bitcoin trading websites avoid these problems through flexible ways such as bank transfer, transfer recharge and point card recharge
the enthusiasm of the people
Chinese players have become the main crowd in the purchase of bitcoin, which has directly led to the popularity of Chinese bitcoin trading websites, and even the crown of "the world's largest trading platform" has rotated among bitcoin trading websites in China. This scale really surprised many people in the financial sector. Not long after China's regulatory authorities warned about the risks of bitcoin, domestic bitcoin trading websites did not suffer too much impact and quickly walked out of the haze
platform strategy
there are about 5-6 mainstream bitcoin trading platforms in China, which mainly earn income by collecting transaction fees and value-added service fees. However, the transaction rates of these bitcoin trading platforms are very low. With the trading volume and user scale, these trading platforms can also find other more profit points. The development of derivatives and the launch of new trading currencies have become a breakthrough: financial derivatives such as "financing currency" have also begun to appear, and other virtual currencies such as Leyte currency have also become expanded trading varieties
in addition, the "ambition" of these trading platforms is not only related to this, many trading platforms are also further expanding the upstream and downstream instrial chain, such as trying to develop bitcoin wallet, bitcoin payment tools and other applications
according to the report issued by the Institute of international finance, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the market price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand, and public expectation plays an important role. Bitcoin trading network said on April 10, 2014 that it has received a telephone notice from Hangzhou Science and Technology City branch of Agricultural Bank of China that it will stop using the company's account for settlement of bitcoin related business on April 15. If it fails to stop within the time limit, the company's bank account will be frozen on April 15
bitcoin trading website niucoin has also received calls from instrial and Commercial Bank of China Hangzhou Jiulian sub branch, China Construction Bank Hangzhou Huaxing sub branch and Agricultural Bank of China Hangzhou Science and Technology City sub branch, saying that e to the notice from the superior operation management department, it will stop providing services for niucoin and close its account before April 12. However, there are still eight other banks, including Bank of China, China Merchants Bank and Instrial Bank, which have not been affected. In June 2014, California governor Jerry Brown signed a law to remove restrictions on non dollar currencies. California's old corporate law, section 107, forbids companies or indivials to issue non dollar currencies, that is, virtual currencies and bonus points, such as Amazon coins and Starbucks stars, which are technically illegal. The new bill repeals this provision, and its author, Roger Dickinson, points out that the law ignores the growing reality of alternative currencies and is therefore unrealistic
following the release of bitcoin based electronic signatures on Tuesday, British Finance Minister George Osborne signaled Britain's intention to legalize bitcoin or other similar currency system as digital currency, the Daily Mail reported in 2014.
blockchain is the underlying system of distributed ledger in bitcoin. Bitcoin ledgers are built in a distributed and spontaneous way. Anyone can generate new currency blocks by performing specific cryptographic calculations, so as to obtain a digital "currency" that can be used for transactions. Bitcoin's impact on the world monetary system can be said to be subversive, which is also an important reason why it has attracted a lot of people's strong attention since it came out. After that, there were dozens of similar electronic currencies such as
"lightcoin". The abstract extraction of distributed digital currency technology from bitcoin forms a "blockchain" technology, which can be used in more fields
bitcoin and other virtual digital currencies are only an application scenario of blockchain technology. Theoretically speaking, based on the characteristics of blockchain technology, human beings can create a very rich form of services and procts. There are a large number of scenarios in finance, government, enterprises, cross instry and other fields, which are suitable for blockchain technology and have broad prospects. At present, many countries around the world have started the research of blockchain technology, and a series of instry organizations and alliances have been established. However, as blockchain technology is a brand-new technology, which subverts the traditional centralized mode, major institutions are still in the research stage, with only a small number of actual projects landing, and the great development of the instry has just begun
now, blockchain economy is on the eve of outbreak. The exploration of financial instry is ahead of others, while the application of other instries is developing rapidly. The obvious advantage of blockchain instry application is to optimize business process, rece operation cost and improve collaborative efficiency. This advantage has been graally reflected in financial services, Internet of things, public services, social welfare and supply chain management
as the backbone of emerging technologies, blockchain is not only used in the field of virtual currency, but also in other fields such as finance, medical care, intellectual property certification, etc. a large number of excellent enterprises have emerged in China to explore or enter the blockchain instry. According to the in-depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry released by foresight Instry Research Institute, as of the end of 2016, there were 105 blockchain related enterprises in China, 80% of which were concentrated in eastern coastal cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou and Taipei
trustworthiness is the core requirement of blockchain, and the importance of standards and specifications is becoming increasingly prominent
in the future value delivery network based on blockchain, we will completely use algorithms and software to build the trust foundation. However, we believe that this is far from enough, and we need the standard to increase the credibility of the blockchain. In the future, the standard of blockchain will standardize the technology and governance of blockchain from the perspective of users, business oriented, and from the dimensions of smart contract, consensus mechanism, private key security, and authority management, so as to enhance the credibility of blockchain and add weight to the trust of blockchain.
however, coin pack believes that there are risks as well as benefits; Because income and risk exist at the same time
this is similar to the stock market, there must be high risk while obtaining high returns
but bitcoin is proced by bitcoin software system based on P2P network; If there is a new currency software system, and users generally accept it, it may have a certain impact compared with the special currency.
Bitcoin as a new thing, its existence has its value application, but it is only limited in its era. So if we look at the big time cycle, there are only two forms of bitcoin in the future. One is hidden in the long river of history, and the other is in the era of digital currency, which can lead to the existence of this special value of borderless and creditless endorsement. At that time, a bitcoin may be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars
up to now, bitcoin has been born for more than 10 years, and there have been four big bull markets in these 10 years, but the mission of bitcoin has been achieved to a certain extent, that is, a currency without borders and value endorsement has formed a certain consensus, and led the blockchain technology to the world. So far, the price of bitcoin has been maintained at around us $12000, which is a certain amount different from its previous record high of US $20000. However, whether it can set off a bigger blockchain bull market in the future still needs to wait< br />