The value and future of bitcoin under the epidemic situation
Publish: 2021-05-28 16:55:28
1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
2.
Bitcoin as a new thing, its existence has its value application, but it is only limited in its era. So if we look at the big time cycle, there are only two forms of bitcoin in the future. One is hidden in the long river of history, and the other is in the era of digital currency, which can lead to the existence of this special value of borderless and creditless endorsement. At that time, a bitcoin may be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars
up to now, bitcoin has been born for more than 10 years, and there have been four big bull markets in these 10 years, but the mission of bitcoin has been achieved to a certain extent, that is, a currency without borders and value endorsement has formed a certain consensus, and led the blockchain technology to the world. So far, the price of bitcoin has been maintained at around us $12000, which is a certain amount different from its previous record high of US $20000. However, whether it can set off a bigger blockchain bull market in the future still needs to wait< br />
3. Since August this year, Chinese diggers, the so-called miners, have been dominating the price of bitcoin. The sharp rise from August to early December is entirely e to the increase in mining costs and difficulties caused by the accumulation of miners. At the same time, there have been many crazy money speculators for a long time. In three months, the price of bitcoin has risen from 2000 to more than 5000. For many people, the evil spear in Fuhua Dian Jiaodian temple is a myth, However, bitcoin is not a security, so there is no risk prevention and control. Based on the consideration of transaction security, the central bank "suggests" (because it only suggests that there is no travel regulations at present) that the third-party payment institutions stop providing payment and cash withdrawal services to the bitcoin trading platform. As soon as the news comes out, the bitcoin trading price plummeted within four days, and today's price is less than 3000 yuan, However, according to the market analysis, the price is likely to pick up. The main reason for the price decline is that the major payment companies have taken emergency measures to avoid the central bank's words, which has caused the payment obstacles and led to the price drop. However, it seems that this will create a new group of investors, and the price drop will give speculators a new opportunity to re-enter the game, So my conclusion is that the price will rise, but it will not be as crazy as it used to be. It is estimated that the price will go up and down in 3500 after two or three months of tossing. At the same time, the rise and fall will also be significantly reced. It is difficult to go up and down in hundreds and thousands like now, As a senior miner, I hope my answer will help you. Haha, it suck if you don't use it correctly.
4.
In the future, the value of bitcoin will continue to rise, mainly e to the following reasons:
1. The value of bitcoin will rise over time in design
2. As the transaction volume of bitcoin is increasing every day in the world, the total amount of bitcoin and bitcoin generated every 10 minutes will decrease (that is, the bitcoin implemented on July 10 will be halved), The value of bitcoin will continue to rise in the foreseeable future
The dollar and many other fiat currencies are depreciating every year, which is e to inflation, that is, the increase of money supply. Bitcoin is designed to be deflationary4. Since now, the supply of bitcoin has been reced again, that is to say, bitcoin has been "halved", recing the number of bitcoins proced every ten minutes. At present, the reward for each block is 12.5btc
There is no proction limit on the quantity of US dollar, so it may be inflated by the order of the government or the central bank group. Paper money (legal tender) is usually inflated by trying to pay off excess debts or by paying for war But in bitcoin, there is no debt, inflation and bleeding. I would say that we are on the way to a good ideological start7. Bitcoin now has a bifurcation battle, but the market fluctuation is relatively stable, which proves that many countries in the world need it. If you split a coin into two. If your assets exceed 10 million, I suggest you invest 10%
5. It's divided into price and value
1: value is the so-called currency born from the early decentralized blockchain Technology (in fact, the capital owns the centralized computing power, and the capital owns the centralized currency quantity, which may not be ideal here). At that time, people had certain expectations and beliefs. The decentralized low trust cost world chase was a good future imagination, which made most people recognize its value (of course, it also caused negative use value, which could not be controlled and regulated by the government, and provided a lot of extra convenience)
of course, some attributes of digital currency can be used for reference, Now countries are also in the trend of legal digital currency. Due to certain technical reasons, BTC may eventually disappear, or it is difficult to achieve the vision of believers. If there is no better change of technology, the limitation of technology will be phased out with the current development of science and technology
2: of course, the price is basically determined by market transactions. BTC is used by a lot of capital, and more value may be used as financial value Another common perception of price is that the quantity is limited and the output is getting slower and slower. With the increase of the use area, the scarcity increases the price, and the story of halving the price is also a good help for capitalists)
because it is a minority, there is no regulation, so the power of capital has a great impact on the price. The good effect of getting rich can attract more and more people to come into the market. The exchanges of various capital institutions have solved the problems of business instry, gained some additional operating income, and created instries (such as basic financial derivatives and more)
including this year's events, with the epidemic situation and the situation in the United States, new financial derivatives are manufactured by joint institutions. In the secondary market, a new circular wealth story is born. This mode is still relatively solid, with stable prices and rising prices. Of course, the final digester is the ordinary people
at the same time, the characteristics of BTC also lead to a part of human allocation of hedging assets
and so on, the price of BTC is proced under the game
personal final conclusion (for reference only): bitcoin is more of a kind of financial value, its use value is still limited at present, and it is also very difficult to promote in the future. If the technology does not evolve, it will still be small. Of course, the game of the world government is also a certain resistance
the current price is based on the financial game of institutions, and it is stable to a certain extent. The premise is that if there is no new large number of people participating in the game, the current rising trend will slow down, and the gray scale and institutions are also expanding the playing methods of other digital currencies (after all, the number of BTCs targeted by GBTC has accounted for more of the total BTCs - physical contribution plus less cash contribution), But there may still be a rise, but when it will be the top depends on the results of various games (I think there are several points: 1. How long can the game between the trading frequency and holding amount of BTC or other currencies in the primary market last, and when people's purchase and consumption will reach a limit. It can't be bought and sold all the time, there is a limit when what the 2. gradation and what the BTC of the GBTC corresponds to is the two level market digestion of the market, when it will be indigestion is also a game... Etc.)
BTC has bubble, and the financial game of capital is full of bubbles. Of course, this is the opportunity to get rich easily.
but the risk is very high, which is not suitable for the public. It can only be said that it depends on fortune and opportunity
BTC has big moves with every financial trend game
investment should be cautious.
1: value is the so-called currency born from the early decentralized blockchain Technology (in fact, the capital owns the centralized computing power, and the capital owns the centralized currency quantity, which may not be ideal here). At that time, people had certain expectations and beliefs. The decentralized low trust cost world chase was a good future imagination, which made most people recognize its value (of course, it also caused negative use value, which could not be controlled and regulated by the government, and provided a lot of extra convenience)
of course, some attributes of digital currency can be used for reference, Now countries are also in the trend of legal digital currency. Due to certain technical reasons, BTC may eventually disappear, or it is difficult to achieve the vision of believers. If there is no better change of technology, the limitation of technology will be phased out with the current development of science and technology
2: of course, the price is basically determined by market transactions. BTC is used by a lot of capital, and more value may be used as financial value Another common perception of price is that the quantity is limited and the output is getting slower and slower. With the increase of the use area, the scarcity increases the price, and the story of halving the price is also a good help for capitalists)
because it is a minority, there is no regulation, so the power of capital has a great impact on the price. The good effect of getting rich can attract more and more people to come into the market. The exchanges of various capital institutions have solved the problems of business instry, gained some additional operating income, and created instries (such as basic financial derivatives and more)
including this year's events, with the epidemic situation and the situation in the United States, new financial derivatives are manufactured by joint institutions. In the secondary market, a new circular wealth story is born. This mode is still relatively solid, with stable prices and rising prices. Of course, the final digester is the ordinary people
at the same time, the characteristics of BTC also lead to a part of human allocation of hedging assets
and so on, the price of BTC is proced under the game
personal final conclusion (for reference only): bitcoin is more of a kind of financial value, its use value is still limited at present, and it is also very difficult to promote in the future. If the technology does not evolve, it will still be small. Of course, the game of the world government is also a certain resistance
the current price is based on the financial game of institutions, and it is stable to a certain extent. The premise is that if there is no new large number of people participating in the game, the current rising trend will slow down, and the gray scale and institutions are also expanding the playing methods of other digital currencies (after all, the number of BTCs targeted by GBTC has accounted for more of the total BTCs - physical contribution plus less cash contribution), But there may still be a rise, but when it will be the top depends on the results of various games (I think there are several points: 1. How long can the game between the trading frequency and holding amount of BTC or other currencies in the primary market last, and when people's purchase and consumption will reach a limit. It can't be bought and sold all the time, there is a limit when what the 2. gradation and what the BTC of the GBTC corresponds to is the two level market digestion of the market, when it will be indigestion is also a game... Etc.)
BTC has bubble, and the financial game of capital is full of bubbles. Of course, this is the opportunity to get rich easily.
but the risk is very high, which is not suitable for the public. It can only be said that it depends on fortune and opportunity
BTC has big moves with every financial trend game
investment should be cautious.
6. The general idea of "fragmentation" is to change each block in the blockchain network into a sub blockchain, in which several (currently 100) collations (which can be called "check blocks", in order to distinguish them from the concept of blocks in the scenario of fragmentation) packed with transaction data can be accommodated, and these collations finally form a block on the main chain; Because these collations exist as blocks as a whole, their data must be packaged and generated by a specific miner, which is essentially the same as the blocks in the existing protocol, so there is no need to add additional network confirmation. In this way, the trading capacity of each block will be expanded about 100 times; And this kind of design is also concive to future expansion. At present, the whole expansion plan is roughly divided into four stages; This article only introces the implementation details of the first phase. Transferred from Jianshu. Currency exchange of digital currency
7. As far as I know, Ruitai coin belongs to crowdfunding. Bitcoin, gold card and Raleigh coin are mine diggers. Want to know more details can go to leile help center to see, where there is a detailed introction.
8.
In early August, bitcoin 24mining, a cryptocurrency investment boutique, launched a price forecasting model, which uses bitcoin mining machine learning software of bitcoin 24mining in Python. As the upstarts say, burgercrypto revealed in their model that they expect bitcoin to fall to a low of $8000 in October 2019
when the model was released, analysts called on BTC to restore its upward trend to a new historical high of more than $20000. However, as you may already know, bitcoin 24mining's machine learning based bitcoin mining model has proved to be correct. With the increasing bear market pressure, BTC fell to $7700 at the beginning of this month
as shown above, the model shows that bitcoin fell to about $8000 at the beginning of October when it bottomed out, began to rise, entered Halloween / early November, and then soared to an all-time high
9. There are also some cheaters who confuse the national machine with the global machine. Isn't the world made up of a specific country? Has China's state machine started? If bitcoin is such a God, it will lead to two situations: 1. World officials vs world people; 2. Chinese people vs American people vs Japanese people; and so on
10. For e-commerce, bitcoin is a fast and convenient means of payment, is a supplement to legal currency payment. It's hard to replace the traditional way of payment, and it's a long way to go. If cross border electricity providers, bitcoin payment means very promising, if only for domestic electricity providers, bitcoin payment is not much value, Alipay and other three party payment methods completely defeated bitcoin payment. Bitcoin house has an analysis of bitcoin payment.
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