Comparative analysis of special currency
Publish: 2021-05-28 10:09:59
1. Since December last year, bitcoin has shown a cliff like decline: from the highest of nearly US $20000 / piece to the lowest of less than US $6000 / piece, the total market value of bitcoin has evaporated nearly 70%, reaching US $273.6 billion. Analysts pointed out that the recent bitcoin once again opened the plunge mode, marginally depressing the risk appetite of the global capital market. However, blockchain is not the same as bitcoin. It is a potential change technology in the future, and it is worth looking forward to in the long run
bitcoin has entered the downward channel, showing a cliff like decline
since then, bitcoin has entered the downward channel, and the myth of bitcoin's sudden wealth is being shattered. According to the latest data of the "in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 25, bitcoin fell to US $6160. The previous trading day, bitcoin fell below US $6000, a new low in the past six months. Compared with the record high of US $19187 in December 2017, the decline was as high as 68%
the total number of bitcoin is 21 million. According to this estimate, the total market value of bitcoin in December last year was as high as US $402.9 billion, and now it has shrunk to 129.36 billion yuan. In the past six months, the total market value of bitcoin has evaporated US $273.567 billion, which is about 1.79 trillion yuan at the current exchange rate
at the same time, other cryptocurrencies also fell. Ethereum eth has dropped from a peak of $1350 at the beginning of the year to around $454.9 at present, with a cumulative decline of 66%. The LTC of Leyte currency dropped from the highest of $342.25 in December last year to the current $80.99, with a cumulative decline of 76.34%
the negative feedback of price decline is being transmitted in the instrial chain. Under the pressure of cryptocurrency market price, bitmain and Canaan, the top two Chinese manufacturers of bitcoin mining machines, may cut 50% of the orders of chip companies TSMC and Samsung Electronics
stricter supervision is a sign of chaos
stricter supervision worldwide is the main reason for the sharp decline of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin
on June 22, Japan's Finance Department officially issued an order to improve the business of six cryptocurrency exchanges, including bitflyer, quoine, bitpointjapan, bitbank, btcbox6 and tech
Bureau
bitflyer, Japan's largest digital currency exchange, immediately suspended the opening of new accounts and carried out rectification, especially in its anti money laundering and control of terrorist funds. Japan has developed into one of the largest bitcoin trading markets. As soon as the news came out, the price of bitcoin fell to a new half year low
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, said that its system had suffered "network intrusion", which also led to a sharp drop in bitcoin after its opening
judging from the change of regulatory attitude, countries have previously held an open and embracing attitude towards blockchain technology. However, with the rising price of bitcoin and the increasing use of ICO for illegal financing, the application of blockchain technology has "deteriorated", the speculative activities have increased significantly, and the cross-border capital outflow has been boosted, The attitude of regulators is also changing
the tightening of supervision will lead to the shrinkage of trading volume and the decline of activity, because the pricing mechanism of bitcoin price is highly positively correlated with the number of participants, which will lead to the decline of bitcoin price. Of course, we don't think bitcoin or digital currency will die out. As long as there is a trading caliber in the world, bitcoin will not die out. It's just a decline in valuation
blockchain technology - a potential change technology in the future
the "hype" capital of bitcoin represents the capital with strong risk preference in the financial market. Bitcoin is characterized by decentralization. As a distributed virtual currency, bitcoin is charged by users independently, and there is no unified regulatory core, such as the Central Bank of each major economy that supervises legal currency. Moreover, the development of bitcoin markets in different countries is different, so it is difficult to coordinate and supervise them. The characteristics of bitcoin make it more speculative
from the perspective of diffusion, bitcoin's recent sharp decline may be transmitted to risky assets such as stocks and commodities, which will depress the risk preference of the global capital market
block chain technology is not a bubble in itself, but bitcoin may be a bubble. Bitcoin is the first representative application of blockchain, but blockchain is not the same as bitcoin. The decentralized and distributed storage of blockchain technology has great application value. It is a potential new technology in the future. It is optimistic about the development of blockchain technology for a long time.
bitcoin has entered the downward channel, showing a cliff like decline
since then, bitcoin has entered the downward channel, and the myth of bitcoin's sudden wealth is being shattered. According to the latest data of the "in depth analysis report on business model innovation and investment opportunities of blockchain instry" released by foresight Instry Research Institute, on June 25, bitcoin fell to US $6160. The previous trading day, bitcoin fell below US $6000, a new low in the past six months. Compared with the record high of US $19187 in December 2017, the decline was as high as 68%
the total number of bitcoin is 21 million. According to this estimate, the total market value of bitcoin in December last year was as high as US $402.9 billion, and now it has shrunk to 129.36 billion yuan. In the past six months, the total market value of bitcoin has evaporated US $273.567 billion, which is about 1.79 trillion yuan at the current exchange rate
at the same time, other cryptocurrencies also fell. Ethereum eth has dropped from a peak of $1350 at the beginning of the year to around $454.9 at present, with a cumulative decline of 66%. The LTC of Leyte currency dropped from the highest of $342.25 in December last year to the current $80.99, with a cumulative decline of 76.34%
the negative feedback of price decline is being transmitted in the instrial chain. Under the pressure of cryptocurrency market price, bitmain and Canaan, the top two Chinese manufacturers of bitcoin mining machines, may cut 50% of the orders of chip companies TSMC and Samsung Electronics
stricter supervision is a sign of chaos
stricter supervision worldwide is the main reason for the sharp decline of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin
on June 22, Japan's Finance Department officially issued an order to improve the business of six cryptocurrency exchanges, including bitflyer, quoine, bitpointjapan, bitbank, btcbox6 and tech
Bureau
bitflyer, Japan's largest digital currency exchange, immediately suspended the opening of new accounts and carried out rectification, especially in its anti money laundering and control of terrorist funds. Japan has developed into one of the largest bitcoin trading markets. As soon as the news came out, the price of bitcoin fell to a new half year low
on June 10, coinrail, the cryptocurrency exchange of South Korea, said that its system had suffered "network intrusion", which also led to a sharp drop in bitcoin after its opening
judging from the change of regulatory attitude, countries have previously held an open and embracing attitude towards blockchain technology. However, with the rising price of bitcoin and the increasing use of ICO for illegal financing, the application of blockchain technology has "deteriorated", the speculative activities have increased significantly, and the cross-border capital outflow has been boosted, The attitude of regulators is also changing
the tightening of supervision will lead to the shrinkage of trading volume and the decline of activity, because the pricing mechanism of bitcoin price is highly positively correlated with the number of participants, which will lead to the decline of bitcoin price. Of course, we don't think bitcoin or digital currency will die out. As long as there is a trading caliber in the world, bitcoin will not die out. It's just a decline in valuation
blockchain technology - a potential change technology in the future
the "hype" capital of bitcoin represents the capital with strong risk preference in the financial market. Bitcoin is characterized by decentralization. As a distributed virtual currency, bitcoin is charged by users independently, and there is no unified regulatory core, such as the Central Bank of each major economy that supervises legal currency. Moreover, the development of bitcoin markets in different countries is different, so it is difficult to coordinate and supervise them. The characteristics of bitcoin make it more speculative
from the perspective of diffusion, bitcoin's recent sharp decline may be transmitted to risky assets such as stocks and commodities, which will depress the risk preference of the global capital market
block chain technology is not a bubble in itself, but bitcoin may be a bubble. Bitcoin is the first representative application of blockchain, but blockchain is not the same as bitcoin. The decentralized and distributed storage of blockchain technology has great application value. It is a potential new technology in the future. It is optimistic about the development of blockchain technology for a long time.
2. As a financial technology enthusiast, kuanke online Xiaobian, I think, there are several major factors to promote
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
3.
Does money need to be valuable? Since the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, all the comparisons in the world have been a piece of paper or a cheap metal pie. Therefore, since then, some economists have called this kind of currency counterfeit. Then it also has a name called legal money. Its full name is legal tender, and its endorser is government credit
So for capitalists, they prefer value-added currency rather than falling currency. In China, this may not work, but in foreign countries, if capitalists think that they can no longer play according to such rules, their government will have to go according to the will of capital sooner or later. That's why Goldman Sachs and Morgan started to enter the bitcoin marketin order to attract more attention, bitcoin will surely welcome its spring with soaring rather than plummeting before it reaches its peak
4.
Robert Schiller, a well-known economist and Nobel Laureate in economics, recently accepted an interview with CNBC's trading nation column and expressed his views on BTC. He believes that bitcoin may be a bubble, but that does not mean that it will burst or disappear forever. p>
recently, Tim Draper, a well-known investor in Silicon Valley, predicted that the price of bitcoin could reach US $250000 by 2022
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