August 17 bitcoin analysis by madman
1. Is bitcoin a Ponzi scheme
what is Ponzi scheme? The funds invested by the latecomers are equally distributed to the former participants as their benefits. Do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to all current bitcoin holders when you first buy bitcoin? No, so bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme
2. Is bitcoin MLM
what is MLM? The funds invested by the latecomers are distributed to the previous participants as their benefits. When you buy bitcoin for the first time, do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to the person who brought you into the bitcoin world? No (bitcoin brings you in a lot of times), so bitcoin is not MLM
a typical mistake that people are prone to make is to judge whether bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme according to "previous bitcoin holders will benefit from the participation of later investors". This is obviously e to the unclear concept. Previous stock holders will also benefit from later investors. Is the stock market also a Ponzi scheme? The real difference between the above-mentioned scams and the formal investment market is whether the first participants and the latter are equal in the rules. The Ponzi scheme and pyramid scheme are unfavorable to the latter in the rules, and this is concealed, which is the deception. In the bitcoin market, no matter first come first served, everyone has to complete the transaction in the market according to their own judgment. No one can use the rules to profit others, which is exactly the same as the stock market< Is br />3. bitcoin an asset bubble?
what is asset bubble? The price of an asset is too high relative to its own value (all but resale). What determines the price? Supply and demand. There is a certain supply and the price soars, which means that there are too many buyers
take the tulip bubble that we often talk about for example. The most important value of tulips is its ornamental value. When five people buy a tulip, it's red. When 500 people buy it, it's colorful. Does it bring night light at night? Obviously not. The ornamental value of tulips will not increase because of the increase in the number of buyers. Therefore, soaring prices in the short term will lead to bubbles. After analyzing bubbles, let's look at bitcoin.
what is bitcoin? Value network. What are the characteristics of Internet? Scale effect
QQ with only 200 users, QQ with 2 million users, and QQ with 200 million users are obviously different in value. The same is true for bitcoin. Every additional bitcoin holder means an additional user who is willing to accept and able to pay for bitcoin. Accordingly, the value of the whole network increases a little bit. The scale effect of bitcoin determines that its value will naturally increase with the increase of the number of buyers. Therefore, it is untenable to assume that the inference of asset bubbles is based solely on price spiking. If we want to prove that bitcoin is an asset bubble, we must prove that the price change of bitcoin is even higher than that of its scale effect.
unfortunately, at least in the discussion of bitcoin bubble that I saw at present, I did not take this proposition into account. Although such proof is complex, it is not infeasible. For example, one idea I can think of is to take the valuation of Tencent / Facebook (Social Network), Alibaba / Amazon (trading network) and visa / PayPal (value network) in different user number periods as a reference to see if the growth rate of bitcoin's market value is too high compared with that of user number. Obviously, there is more than one way to prove, but the propositions to prove should be consistent
conclusion is obvious now that bitcoin is not a hoax, and even the accusation of bubbles lacks convincing grounds. When we discuss bitcoin, there are many misunderstandings, not only conceptual and logical, but also emotional. In the final analysis, it is because of the lack of understanding of bitcoin. However, e to the openness of the network, bitcoin has indeed been artificially played bad. Useful adoption
in short, bitcoin is a virtual currency . Like stocks, it can be invested and traded. In technical terms, bitcoin is a kind of P2P digital currency
but after all, the nature and mode of bitcoin is different from other currencies, and it may prosper in the future. It may also be like the collapse of the economic bubble, which is unknown. If you enter the bitcoin market and have a quarrel, it will not become a real currency, because the fluctuation of the price is impossible to satisfy everyone. If there is a profit, there is a loss. Therefore, the investment of bitcoin should be cautious. If you don't fully grasp it, don't try it easily
Bitcoin prices hit a new high. Bitcoin broke the $50000 mark on the 16th and hit $51000 on the 17th, according to data from coindesk. As of 7 a.m. Beijing time, the price of bitcoin rose 7.4% to $56055.74
at this latest price, the total market value of bitcoin is about $1.04 trillion. This number is second only to Google, which has a market value of $1.4 trillion, and higher than Tesla, which has a market value of $750 billion, ranking fifth in US stocks. Based on the closing price of Guizhou Maotai on February 19, the total market value of bitcoin is 2.17 times that of Maotai
the value of bitcoin will grow by more than 415 billion US dollars in 2021, reaching more than 1 trillion US dollars. In the past six months, bitcoin prices have risen by about 350%. Market participants said that recently, some institutions and large companies said they would enter the field of digital currency, which pushed up the price of bitcoin. Changes in the flow of speculative funds benefiting from the early stage in the future and the attitude of regulators may have an impact on its trend. At the same time, it makes more cryptocurrencies known, but the value of most cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, fluctuates every day. Although virtual currency is designed to promote safer transactions, it is not difficult to see that its value is becoming more and more speculative through the recent price fluctuation of bitcoin. Some encryption investors become millionaires overnight, but they may lose most of their wealth in a few weeks. It also shows the huge and unreliable nature of bitcoin, especially the goods and services as a currency
Of course, there are many other factors in addition to the above two main reasons. For example, in the past two years, new currency issuance has been stopped by many countries. After the outbreak of digital currency market in 2017, a large number of new digital currencies appeared in the market. However, the issuance of new currency usually carries a high risk, and there are many fraulent behaviors in the market, so the issuance of new currency is stopped by various countries. The ban on the issuance of new currency has hindered the development of digital currency, but it has further boosted the flames and stabilized the investment value of bitcoinpotential problems and risks faced by bitcoin
technological innovation: first of all, the challenge bitcoin will face is technological innovation. The decentralized design of bitcoin not only refreshes us, but also limits the development of bitcoin. Every upgrade of bitcoin protocol needs to reach a consensus with each node on the network, but everyone has different views on bitcoin, and consensus is often difficult to achieve. This problem leads to the bifurcations of bitcoin and the slow development of bitcoin protocol itself. At the same time, with the development of science and technology, the implementation and application of quantum computing will also break the security model built by bitcoin based on the overall computing power of all nodes in the network, which may theoretically achieve 51% computing power attack. So far, this problem has not been solved. In other words, bitcoin may suddenly become less secure after the advent of quantum computing technology. In addition, e to the consensus mechanism of bitcoin, power consumption and hardware requirements are also increasing. So far, these problems have not been completely solved
the issue of central bank's digital currency: in addition to some problems of bitcoin itself, bitcoin will also face the challenges of central bank's digital currency in the future. Part of the value of bitcoin lies in the application of its blockchain, and the transaction mode of blockchain is also a major direction for the development of banks in the future. Applying the same technology, the central bank can better examine economic activities and carry out macro-control, which may be more concive to economic development. At the same time, we are not sure whether the digital currency issued with national credit will be easier to implement and get better development. However, when central banks make similar attempts, they are bound to compete with bitcoin to a certain extent
the foundation and early development of bitcoin are based on people's desire to build a fairer monetary system. But with the financialization of bitcoin and the admission of institutional investors, we suddenly found that a large number of bitcoin has been in the hands of financial giants. Bitcoin as cryptocurrency, its transactions have been outside the supervision, there is no legal requirement for institutional investors to disclose the large amount of transactions of bitcoin to ensure the fairness of the market, which also provides a lot of space for institutional investors to manipulate the market. Retail investors enter the market with a good vision of digital currency, but in the end, they become the target of big predators. After harvest after harvest, more capital is in the hands of financial giants
Bitcoin is more optimistic, and many people want to invest in bitcoin, and some enterprises want to own bitcoin, and also want to have more wealth
But in fact, we should have a rational view, and we should not rely too much on bitcoin, and we should not invest too much in bitcoin, because bitcoin is also very unstable. According to data analysis, bitcoin's profit has soared 20 times. How long can bitcoin's popularity last? I don't think the popularity of bitcoin can last long. There are three main reasons for this:first, the value of bitcoin is not very stable
in fact, in my opinion, I don't think the popularity of bitcoin can last long, because I think the value of bitcoin is not very stable, and there may be some ups and downs. This means that many times some people may not let themselves to determine the value of their investment, and they may not be able to have a better accuracy. So there may be times when some people don't like bitcoin very much{ RRRRR}
that's my opinion. Do you have any ideas
Bitcoin fell to 58000 yuan and 180000 people burst their positions. The affected groups are:
1 2 3 bitcoin, as a virtual currency in emerging instries, has attracted many people's attention. After bitcoin's sharp rise, the fluctuation began to increase, which caused fatal harm to many people. Bitcoin fell to 58000 yuan and 180000 people burst their positions. The affected groups were mainly those who increased their positions at a high level. The cost of these people was relatively high, and a little fluctuation would lead to big losses; At the same time, people who buy bitcoin with leverage or financing have weak ability to resist risks, and violent fluctuations will lead to their positions bursting. They should be the group most affected and the group with the most serious losses among the positions bursting groups; Finally, the trading maniac, keep chasing up and down, this group influence is also relatively large the people who chase up and down may not be as miserable as the above two groups. However, with a large number of transactions, the people who chase up and down every day will also suffer losses. This kind of thing consumes a lot of energy, but the loss of money also has a greater impact on them, and they are also a relatively influential group
in the early morning of the 25th, BTC fell sharply and continued its weak shock. The lowest price of BTC reached around 3650 and stopped falling. During the day, BTC rebounded many times and reached 3800, but did not reach 3800. The daily and four hour mark of $3700 is just at the position of the 60 day moving average of the four hour chart and the 10 day moving average of the daily chart. Therefore, the intraday price is supported near this position and a long short battle is launched at this position. Last night, a trial pierced this position
at present, it's important to return to the position above 3700. Whether the short-term bulls can hold the rally or not basically determines whether the rally ends. The key defense area is the area around 3650-3700, which falls below the position of 3550 or even lower in the short-term view. Today's market operation rebound short thinking, first look at the rebound correction strength, and then look at the weak shock, the upper short-term pressure focus on 3800 and 3900-4000 area, the lower short-term support focus on yesterday's intraday low 3650 and the daily track 3550, short-term single within the day is recommended to combine the light warehouse near 3750-3850 to enter, and defend the 4000 barrier within the day
as for multiple orders, it is suggested that the layout around 3550-3600 is much shorter, the market consolidation should be more wait-and-see, the market should be cautious, the market should be violent, and the market is changing rapidly. The operation should be combined with real-time market pressure support, and the risk control of position control should be paid attention to.
Bitcoin's short-term rise has expanded, which is directly related to Musk's remarks{ RRRRR}
from the series of operations of musk, we can see that he is like a manipulator, firmly controlling the bitcoin market, and his every move and word will affect the bitcoin market