Six bear markets of bitcoin

1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that

2.

By midday, bitcoin had fallen to around $10700. Bitcoin's previous attempt to break through $12000 failed, and yesterday's downward trend continues to this day. As a result, the cryptocurrency market fell, with 90 of the top 100 currencies falling

in the past 24 hours, according to the okex platform, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 638 million yuan, and according to the currency security data, the net outflow amount of bitcoin reached 152 million yuan. Although the capital outflow in the past 24 hours is relatively large, it has decreased compared with yesterday's capital outflow, and bitcoin has hit the bottom of US $10600 for many times in the past 24 hours. However, in terms of trading volume, there is strong support in this position. After that, we still need to observe the withdrawal of funds, so as to confirm whether the market goes up or continues to fall below the down. In fact, the so-called "bear market" in the currency circle is more popular than the "three o'clock community" before. In my opinion, I basically dare to assert that there are makers in the currency circle who have successfully harvested a batch of "leeks" by using some financial means or big men. This view may sound like "conspiracy theory" to many people, But I have to admit that speculators are everywhere in the coin circle. Zhu Xiaohu's warning that "I hope you don't stay in history because you reap leeks to earn money with blood" also has a certain basis in my opinion

the craziest time was in December 2017, when bitcoin reached more than 100000 yuan. Before that, people who invested in bitcoin could make a fortune overnight. At the end of 2017, the price dropped to below 40000 yuan, and there was also a correction in 2018

there are two ways to invest in bitcoin

one is to buy bitcoin directly and wait for it to rise, that is, simply buy it low and sell it high. Judging from the historical data and the popularity of blockchain, there is still a lot of room for bitcoin to rise, but the cost of this investment method is relatively low, and the price of bitcoin fluctuates too much, so although the income of buying bitcoin directly is high, But the risk is also great

the other is to "dig" bitcoin with professional equipment. The total amount of bitcoin is 21 million. Mining is the only way to get bitcoin, that is, through a professional computer, which is called mining machine in the instry, to get bitcoin through a lot of calculation, and then sell bitcoin to get income. At present, the price of a mining machine is about 10000, Another problem is the cost of electricity. This kind of equipment consumes a lot of power and needs 24-hour uninterrupted operation, so after a long time, the electricity cost is not a small cost

at present, there are many people engaged in mining, mostly in the form of mines, finding cheap electricity for centralized mining to rece costs

every day will generate income, the highest is more than 200. In addition, the fluctuation of the currency price has little impact on the mining, because the bitcoin can be sold at any price. Even if the price of the coin is low, it can be sold after the price rises. Therefore, the investment income is relatively stable, the risk is relatively low, and the current machine price is also low, There is no threshold for investment, so it is a good opportunity for investment

According to the current market, mining income is not high, and even some retail investors have caused losses, but it is difficult to lose money in large-scale professional mines. Mining requires the cost of machinery and equipment and the cost of electricity price. With the decline of bitcoin market, the cost of machinery has been reced again and again, and the electricity price in large mines is also extremely low. Therefore, the income of mining in large mines will be higher than the cost for a long time in the future, and the income will be higher after the price of bitcoin rises

compared with self built mines, it has certain advantages to invest in mining machinery trusteeship business. Firstly, the time cost is saved to a certain extent, and the mining business can be started immediately. Secondly, unnecessary expenses, such as labor cost, are saved. Since the custody business concentrates the mining machines of multiple investors in one mine, the labor cost is shared by all investors. Finally, there are cheaper electricity prices. The ultimate goal of hosting enterprises to carry out mining machinery hosting business is to make profits. If they can not get lower than the normal electricity price on the market, it is difficult for hosting enterprises to make profits. Of course, the electricity price given to investors will also be lower than the normal electricity price on the market. Another important advantage is that some trusteeship enterprises are able to cash the virtual currency g up by investors' mining machines directly, which also relieves some investors from the worry that they can't cash the virtual currency

is mining profitable or not? There are several factors affecting the mining income: first, the currency price. The higher the currency price, the more profitable the mining. The second is the difficulty. The slower the difficulty rises, the more profitable the mining will be. The lower the cost, the more profitable the mining. Of course, the cost here refers to the purchasing cost and operating cost of computing power, including labor, network, construction, electricity and so on. The lower the cost, the better. Mining needs to deal with the risk of currency price plummeting, mining difficulty soaring, and mining costs rising. At present, the risk of mining currency speculation is much smaller

now the currency price continues to fall. Some people say that it's better to buy money directly than to buy a miner. In fact, it's not the case. Buying money must bear the risk of currency price falling, and the risk and income coexist, while buying a miner is to "protect the income from drought and flood" and keep the value of money rising; In the absence of rich market experience, the decision to buy money is only the choice of speculators

3. It's four peaks:

the first time, in March last year, bitcoin soared from tens of dollars to 266 dollars overnight

for the second time, the United States held a bitcoin hearing on September 18 last year. Before the hearing, the Federal Reserve and other relevant people looked at bitcoin. Under the influence of the good news again, the price of bitcoin rose to 8000 yuan

the third time is ring this year's World Cup. Due to the influence of the world cup, the price of bitcoin once approached 6000

for the fourth time, bitcoin suddenly rose to 3000 yuan after six months of continuous downturn and hovering around 2400 for a long time. It is said that it is the entry of hot money.

4. Every time there is bad news and market panic, bitcoin will fall sharply. For example, hackers steal bitcoin and the central bank forbids bitcoin trading. The price of bitcoin is controlled by the news and market sentiment. Every fall is an opportunity for bottom hunting. Playing with the band is very good. A few years ago, when I was hunting bitcoin at Bitz, there were dozens of points in one band, although I didn't earn much, But it's safe

5. You'd better not touch the illegal things, otherwise you will lose everything. Hope to adopt.

6. Bull market: from December 19, 1990 to May 26, 1992,

after the formal opening of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it took two and a half years for the stock market to continue to rise. Finally, stimulated by the cancellation of the price limit, it reached a high of 1429 points

bear market: from May 26, 1992 to November 17, 1992,

after the impulse, the market began to return to value, and the immature stock market fluctuated greatly. In only half a year, the stock index fell from 1429 to 386<

2 characteristics: rising very fast

bull market: November 17, 1992 ~ February 16, 1993

rapid decline is cool, rapid rise is more cool, half a year's decline, all rise back in three months. It took only three months from 386 o'clock to 1558 o'clock

bear market: from February 16, 1993 to July 29, 1994,

after the completion of the rapid bull market, the old eight stocks in Shanghai announced the expansion. With the continuous issuance of new stocks, the stock index returned to 325 points<

3 characteristics: to rescue the market, relevant departments issued three favorable policies: 1. To suspend the issuance and listing of new shares ring the year; 2; 2. Strictly control the scale of rights issue of listed companies; 3. Take measures to expand the scope of funds into the market. In one and a half months, the stock index rose by 200%, up to 1052 points

bear market: from September 13, 1994 to May 17, 1995

with the stock price rising, there is always an invisible hand to lower the stock market. On May 17, 1995, the stock index has returned to 577 points, with a decline of nearly 50%<

4 characteristics: bull market is very short

bull market: from May 18, 1995 to May 22, 1995

this bull market has only three trading days. Affected by the news that the management closed the Treasury bond futures, the stock index rose from 582 to 926 in three days

bear market: from May 22, 1995 to January 19, 1996,

after a short bull market, the stock index reached a stage low of 512 points, and the shares of blue chip stocks generally oversold, so a new round of market conditions are available<

5 characteristics: blue chip stocks take the lead

bull market: from January 19, 1996 to May 12, 1997

advocating blue chip stocks began to become the mainstream investment concept in the market. Under the leadership of Shenzhen Development and other stocks, the stock index returned to 1510. From April 1, 1996 to December 12, 1996, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 124%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 346%, and there were more than 100 stocks that rose more than five times. The development of the two leading enterprises in Shenzhen is from 6 yuan to 20.50 yuan, and that of Changhong in Sichuan is from 7 yuan to 27.45 yuan

bear market: from May 12, 1997 to May 18, 1999,

this round of adjustment is also e to excessive speculation. After the blue chip stocks have been fully hyped, the stock index has dropped to 1047 points. The most well-known is the special commentator's article "a correct understanding of the current stock market" published by people's daily, which points out that we should be highly vigilant against serious excessive speculation and possible risks in the stock market. The day the article was published, with the introction of the price limit system, the market plummeted<

6 characteristics: once the highest in history

bull market: from May 19, 1999 to June 14, 2001

this bull market is commonly known as "May 19" market. The strong eruption of network concept stocks pushed the Shanghai stock index to the highest point in history of 2245 points“ "5. 19" market is the direct outbreak of the Shanghai Securities Daily reporter Li Wei's "Internet stocks can become a leader - about China's listed companies to enter the network instry thinking", the opening of the market is led by the Oriental Pearl TV, radio and television shares, Shenzhen sands and other network stocks.

this time, the people's daily once again published a special commentator's article "firm confidence, standardize development", reiterating that the stock market is a restorative rise, requiring all parties to firm their confidence. It was in this round of market that Yian technology broke the 100 yuan mark, but it eventually became a scandal<

bear market: from June 14, 2001 to June 6, 2005,

"May 19" market, the market is most concerned about the issue of non tradable shares. The stock index also fell all the way from 2245 to 998, falling more than 50% in four years<

7 features: the longest adjustment history

bull market: June 6, 2005 ~ October 2007
after the longest adjustment in history, the P / E ratio of A-share market has dropped to a reasonable level, and a new round of market is quietly brewing. This round of bull and bear market is now in ups and downs, with a new high from 998 to 6124, which makes countless new investors dream of becoming rich overnight. When they wake up, they are struggling in the swamp of 3000. We went through the first half in this bull and bear market. What will be the trend in the second half
bear market: October 2007 - Unknown

7. The first bull market: 1990.12-1992.5 95-1429 old eight shares, cancellation of trading board
the first bear market: 1992.5-1992.11 1429-386 value return, new share subscription
the second bull market: 1992.11-1993.2 386-1558 Deng Xiaoping's southern tour speech
the second bear market: 1993.2-1994.8 1558-325 economic overheating, tightening regulation, expansion, new share issuance, and so on Vigorously develop the national debt market
the third bull market: 1994.8-1994.9 325-1052 points, three good things to save the market
the third bear market: 1994.9-1995.5 1052-582 points, loss of confidence, tightening policy, and so on Development of treasury bonds
the fourth bull market: 582-926 points from May 1995 to May 1995 (three trading days)
China Securities Regulatory Commission suspended treasury bond futures trading
the fourth bear market: 926-512 points from May 1995 to January 1996, limits, historical stock listing The fifth bull market: 512-1510 points in 1996.1-1997.5; the fifth bear market: 1510-1047 points in 1997.5-1999.5; serious expansion; imbalance between supply and demand; the sixth bull market: 1999.5-2001.6 1047-2245.5.19; people's daily editorials; placement of new shares in the secondary market; abundant funds; outbreak of Internet concept stocks
the sixth bear market: 2245-998 points of state-owned shares rection from June 2001 to May 2005
the seventh bull market: 998-6124 points of non tradable shares reform from May 2005 to October 2007, RMB appreciation, large-scale fund issuance, excess liquidity, nationwide stock speculation
the seventh bear market: 6124-1664 points of inflation from October 2007 to November 2008, suspension of fund issuance, sub-prime mortgage crisis The eighth bull market: 2008.11-2009.7 1664-3478.4 trillion investment, ten major instries revitalization plan
the eighth bear market: 2009.7-2010.7 3478-2319 IPO restart, tightening macro policy, European debt crisis
the ninth bull market: 2010.7-2010.11 2319-3186, the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, liquidity flooding, liquidity crisis, etc Resource stocks soared, RMB appreciation
the ninth bear market: 2010.11-2011.6 3186-2661 points tightening control, intensive issuance of new shares, inflation pressure, economic growth slowdown

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9. Some couples need to change the license plate number when they transfer their ownership. They feel that they don't like the license plate number and want to choose a new one. In this case, it belongs to the normal transfer of ownership between indivials

the required proceres are: ID cards of both parties, vehicle registration certificate and driving license. You can drive to the vehicle management office for vehicle registration service

if the husband and wife do not want to change the license plate number, and the vehicle and license plate belong to the common property of the husband and wife after marriage, then the "change of vehicle owner" between the husband and wife does not belong to the vehicle transfer, but is just a simple vehicle change information. You can go to the vehicle management office to handle the property change proceres, and transfer the vehicle license to the other party

the required proceres are: ID card, marriage certificate, household register, vehicle registration certificate and driving license of both parties, and I need to be present to handle them.