BTC plate

1. To be honest, I may come into contact with bitcoin later than many of my peers, but I'm one of the quickest people to make a decision to join the instry. I learned from the news that Jet Li's one foundation was grateful to the enthusiasts who donated bitcoin. After less than ten minutes of thinking, I immediately decided to put down 90% of the projects I had completed and devote myself to this instry with incomparable prospects. I am a technology controller. Although I am not well-known in the Internet instry, I have operated no less than 10 it projects, and have cooperated with or established 7 companies. Among them, there are also successes and failures. The only instry that has not been involved is group buying, because I thought from the beginning that group buying deviated from its original appearance and would not be a very promising instry. But after learning about bitcoin, I feel that I have found a window, a window to the palace of ideals, a way to change the world. Today, I still insist on my choice, but the real use value of bitcoin in China is rarely reflected except for its speculative property. After multi-party analysis, I think the short-term downward trend is irreversible. Let's list the following factors that cause the price of bitcoin to fall:
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that

2.

now bitcoin bubble serious, may collapse, the market needs to be cautious. But unlike tulip, it will rise slowly after falling, rather than collapse

because the total amount of bitcoin is limited. Mining costs are getting higher and higher. It can also be preserved for a long time at a low cost. At the same time, about 40% of bitcoin is in the hands of a very small number of people, which can achieve high control

you need to judge its future & quot; Collection value & quot; Up or down

what you should pay attention to is its & lt; Collection value & quot; It does not depend on itself, but on the public's enthusiasm for it and its general recognition. It's changing all the time

from the perspective of coin holders, the more people they buy, the better. This will lead to the & lt; decline of bitcoin; Collection value & quot; Up

there are many coin holders who strongly advocate bitcoin and turn shit into gold. With the success of advocacy, more and more people buy money. Excrement really becomes gold. Advocacy is no longer advocacy, but truth. This paradox is also what Soros said; Reflexivity Principle & quot; It's the embodiment of the idea. This is also the most painful and unacceptable thing for rational people who do not speculate

at present, I personally feel that the price is too high. There are too many speculators in the short term. There are some bubbles. Investment should be cautious. You can buy some in the next slump and collect them for a long time

you should not believe the following two statements:

1. Bitcoin is the perfect currency in circulation in the future. It has high use value, so it is very valuable

2. Bitcoin is deceptive and has no use value, so it is not valuable

one answer is that bitcoin is like a diamond. It does

diamond's & lt; Use value & quot Love is eternal), which was hyped by De Beers in the last century. Until then, diamonds were not worth money. And the total supply of diamonds is monopolized and controlled by giants such as De Beers Is "diamond" the most wonderful marketing scam in the world in the 20th century? Is it really worthless? There are many good answers to this question.)

De Beers constantly claims that diamonds are the strongest objects and can symbolize eternity. People graally accepted it

and Nakamoto develops bitcoin, and believes that its decentralization, blockchain technology and other characteristics are suitable for the future as a perfect e-currency (the initial title of the paper is "a peer-to-peer e-cash system"). With the expansion and publicity of bitcoin's followers, more and more people have accepted this idea. But now there are still a large number of people who don't know anything and feel that the price is rising sharply, so they buy bitcoin. After buying it, reverse rationalize it and persuade yourself to accept the concept that bitcoin is a perfect electronic currency

this is & lt; The community of imagination; The process of formation. The essence is similar. It doesn't matter whether these concepts are true or not. It's important: how many people do you trust. If more people believe in it, it will come true

In the end, diamond has become an extremely successful marketing case. The symbolic meaning of diamonds has been formed all over the world; The community of imagination;. Instead of collapsing like tulip, it has become a sustainable instry

from the current trend, bitcoin is working in this direction. There is a public opinion game between advocates and bearers to see who has more power to influence the huge group of passers-by to identify or not to identify with bitcoin. Both sides exaggerate, saying that bitcoin is the Holy Grail of changing human society and that bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. At present, because of the continuous rise (and it has doubled after several sharp falls), the advocates have the upper hand

3. Bitcoin has experienced a sharp rise and fall in the market, and graally become known to many people after a number of media news reports. But for novices who don't know computer knowledge, bitcoin mining is complicated. It may be a better way to invest directly in bitcoin and then hold it for a rise. Of course, there are also huge risks. Here's a simple way to buy and sell bitcoin
China bitcoin trading platform, register after entering the website
after successful registration, you can buy and sell bitcoin under the trading function, manage the entrustment and query the trading operation, and transfer in and out bitcoin under account management, The transfer in and transfer out of RMB
RMB recharge and withdrawal support a variety of ways, and the handling charge is relatively high, and the limits and handling charges of various ways are different
the transfer in and transfer out of bitcoin refers to the transfer of bitcoin between the trading platform and the bitcoin wallet. The bitcoin wallet needs to be downloaded from the bitcoin official website, and the data needs to be synchronized after downloading and installing. The current data packet is about 8.5g, Synchronization takes a long time. For friends with small investment, you can skip it. After the installation of bitcoin wallet, there will be a default acceptance address, which can be pasted when the transaction platform withdraws bitcoin, while recharging is a reverse operation. The transaction platform will give you an address to send money in the wallet, and then pasted the address
the transaction of bitcoin needs to pay a certain handling fee, and the transaction handling fee of bitcoin China is 0.3%, This transaction rate is equivalent to the upper limit of Commission for stock trading. In the trading platform, you can also refer to
btc123
, which makes the market data more intuitive. Bitcoin trading is different from securities trading. There is no limit to the rise and fall of bitcoin, and it trades 24 hours a day. The whole market plate is small, and it is easy to be controlled by the makers, and it may also be attacked by hackers. Therefore, the risk is huge. It is recommended to invest cautiously. Novices had better understand the relevant concepts first Please search for the website by yourself]

4. 1. The number of bitcoin is limited, because the original intention of the design is to have a currency with a fixed circulation, so that the final number can not be increased or decreased, so as to eliminate the inflation and deflation risks caused by man-made money printing. The specific number is determined according to the block and block reward principle:
the assumption is that six data blocks can be generated every hour in the world, and 210000 data blocks can be generated every four years; Then it makes a decreasing payment for the return of data blocks, 50 bitcoin for each data block in the first four years, 25 bitcoin for each data block in the second four years, 12.5 bitcoin for each data block in the third four years, and so on... Finally, the total number of bitcoins is -
210000 x (50 + 25 + 12.5 + 6.25 + 3.125 +...) = 21 million

the cumulative sum in brackets is close to 100 and will never exceed 100, so the total number of bitcoins is 21 million
currently in the second four-year period, each calculated data block contains 25 bitcoins

2. There is no loss of wealth. Many people at home and abroad are digging for bitcoin, and they are also speculating in bitcoin. Computer and Internet speed can only determine the speed of bitcoin digging, but not the value of bitcoin. Even if you say that we dig abroad, we fry. Now we buy a bitcoin for $300, and there will be no bitcoin to dig in the future. Maybe a bitcoin will sell for $3000, and then we sell it again, won't we make a profit? Where is the loss of wealth? Of course, maybe a bitcoin will be worth $3 at that time. Who can say that it is not born by the central banks

3. In addition to bitcoin, there are several similar virtual currencies such as lightcoin. However, they all adopt similar design principles. Therefore, in the future, there will inevitably be a problem that the currency will eventually be widely recognized, and other currencies that are not recognized will be eliminated. Otherwise, a new virtual currency can pop up at any time. It's not the same as printing money, which completely goes against their original design intention.

5. Bitcoin is not recognized, and there is no stock about bitcoin. Bitcoin is mainly used for black trading, and many of them are illegal and criminal.

6.

We know that this is an era of high economic development. More and more people begin to pay attention to the self-development of the economy. At the same time, they are willing to put their spare funds into other instries to make money. This is a way to make future investment or risk aversion, After all, people are full of many factors for the instability of the market, such as a wave of new epidemic action in 2020. So what's the next step for bitcoin to reach a new high in 2020{ RRRRR}

3. For companies that issue bitcoin, it will have a very good development< p> Finally, for companies that issue bitcoin, this is a very good development, because the more people hold bitcoin, the higher the market value and price of the company