Analysis of btccom

1. bitcoin is different from the previous currency, it completely relies on the Internet to create and trade; Bitcoin's unique technical attributes lead to its economic and cultural attributes beyond the present currency. Bitcoin is a kind of electronic currency proced by open-source P2P software. Compared with the paper currency in circulation, the biggest feature of bitcoin is decentralization and global circulation in the network world, followed by high security and high confidentiality. These technical attributes further extend to the economic attributes of no inflation, no freezing, and no man-made supply; In terms of culture, bitcoin is popular among anarchists and liberals. The advantages of bitcoin are artificially exaggerated, and its anti inflation and anti inflation functions cannot stand up to scrutiny. In the long run, the prospect of bit is hard to match that of gold. In the most optimistic case, it will become a means of payment in some areas; But in the short and medium term, bit still has room for speculation and imagination. In addition, the use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas

2.

BTC is bitcoin

BTC is a kind of virtual encrypted digital currency in the form of P2P, which is limited in quantity, but can be used for transaction and converted into the currency of most countries. It can transmit payment point-to-point without any central authority,

such as bank or payment channel, and it is created and saved electronically. Bitcoin is not issued by any specific monetary institution, but is proced by computers all over the world using free software, which is commonly known as "mining"

extended data

currency features -

Decentralization: bitcoin is the first distributed virtual currency, the whole network is composed of users, and there is no central bank. Decentralization is the guarantee of bitcoin's security and freedom

Global Circulation: bitcoin can be managed on any computer connected to the Internet. No matter where you are, anyone can dig, buy, sell or collect bitcoin

exclusive ownership: private key is required to manipulate bitcoin, which can be stored in any storage medium in isolation. No one can get it except the user himself

low transaction cost: bitcoin can be remitted free of charge, but a transaction fee of about 1 bitfen will be charged for each transaction to ensure faster transaction execution

3. Now many small partners are speculating in bitcoin. How many people really understand the meaning of bitcoin and what it is? We need to divide it into two parts. On the one hand, you have a bitcoin token, a code fragment representing the ownership of digital concepts - a bit like a virtual IOU. On the other hand, you have the bitcoin protocol, a distributed network that maintains a balanced ledger of bitcoin tokens. Both are known as "bitcoin."

the system supports sending payments between users without the need to go through a central authority (such as a bank or payment gateway). It is created and saved electronically. Bitcoins are not printed like dollars or euros - they are free software proced and used by computers around the world

4. We usually link Ponzi fraud, pyramid schemes and asset bubbles with bitcoin, so we will analyze the past one by one. Three. Asset bubbles are strictly not fraulent, because they do not involve coercion or deception, but in order to make the discussions more complete, we also add them.
1. Is bitcoin a Ponzi scheme
what is Ponzi scheme? The funds invested by the latecomers are equally distributed to the former participants as their benefits. Do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to all current bitcoin holders when you first buy bitcoin? No, so bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme
2. Is bitcoin MLM
what is MLM? The funds invested by the latecomers are distributed to the previous participants as their benefits. When you buy bitcoin for the first time, do you need to hand over an extra sum of money to the person who brought you into the bitcoin world? No (bitcoin brings you in a lot of times), so bitcoin is not MLM
a typical mistake that people are prone to make is to judge whether bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme or pyramid scheme according to "previous bitcoin holders will benefit from the participation of later investors". This is obviously e to the unclear concept. Previous stock holders will also benefit from later investors. Is the stock market also a Ponzi scheme? The real difference between the above-mentioned scams and the formal investment market is whether the first participants and the latter are equal in the rules. The Ponzi scheme and pyramid scheme are unfavorable to the latter in the rules, and this is concealed, which is the deception. In the bitcoin market, no matter first come first served, everyone has to complete the transaction in the market according to their own judgment. No one can use the rules to profit others, which is exactly the same as the stock market< Is br />3. bitcoin an asset bubble?
what is asset bubble? The price of an asset is too high relative to its own value (all but resale). What determines the price? Supply and demand. There is a certain supply and the price soars, which means that there are too many buyers
take the tulip bubble that we often talk about for example. The most important value of tulips is its ornamental value. When five people buy a tulip, it's red. When 500 people buy it, it's colorful. Does it bring night light at night? Obviously not. The ornamental value of tulips will not increase because of the increase in the number of buyers. Therefore, soaring prices in the short term will lead to bubbles. After analyzing bubbles, let's look at bitcoin.
what is bitcoin? Value network. What are the characteristics of Internet? Scale effect
QQ with only 200 users, QQ with 2 million users, and QQ with 200 million users are obviously different in value. The same is true for bitcoin. Every additional bitcoin holder means an additional user who is willing to accept and able to pay for bitcoin. Accordingly, the value of the whole network increases a little bit. The scale effect of bitcoin determines that its value will naturally increase with the increase of the number of buyers. Therefore, it is untenable to assume that the inference of asset bubbles is based solely on price spiking. If we want to prove that bitcoin is an asset bubble, we must prove that the price change of bitcoin is even higher than that of its scale effect.
unfortunately, at least in the discussion of bitcoin bubble that I saw at present, I did not take this proposition into account. Although such proof is complex, it is not infeasible. For example, one idea I can think of is to take the valuation of Tencent / Facebook (Social Network), Alibaba / Amazon (trading network) and visa / PayPal (value network) in different user number periods as a reference to see if the growth rate of bitcoin's market value is too high compared with that of user number. Obviously, there is more than one way to prove, but the propositions to prove should be consistent
conclusion is obvious now that bitcoin is not a hoax, and even the accusation of bubbles lacks convincing grounds. When we discuss bitcoin, there are many misunderstandings, not only conceptual and logical, but also emotional. In the final analysis, it is because of the lack of understanding of bitcoin. However, e to the openness of the network, bitcoin has indeed been artificially played bad. Useful adoption

5. Huawei has large cooperation with hundreds and thousands of companies. They will directly carry out in-depth cooperation to create more high technology.

7. The use of SSL encryption mechanism, cold storage technology, as well as Google verification and SMS verification and other multiple security mechanisms make the transaction secure. Moreover, the platform is open and transparent, and will disclose transaction information to users. Any user can supervise the platform with zero threshold.

8. Analysis of letter codes of doors and windows on architectural drawings:
window BTC: shutter skylight
door BTM: shutter sliding door

9. What is the short mechanism? What are the functions of short selling mechanism in stock market

the smooth operation of the stock market depends on the coordinated development of the long and short mechanism. One of the important reasons for the increasing accumulation of risks in China's stock market is that the short mechanism corresponding to the long mechanism is imperfect and at an obvious disadvantage. The introction of credit trading and stock index futures trading to strengthen the short mechanism is not only the need of market development, but also has the basic conditions

short mechanism is an operation mechanism closely connected with short, which refers to the operation methods and related systems adopted by investors to protect their own interests and take advantage of the opportunity to make profits e to the bearish of the overall stock market or the future trend of certain stocks (including short-term and medium-term)< The four functions of short selling mechanism are as follows: 1. It is beneficial for investors to actively avoid risks and increase market liquidity; 2. Under the market condition that short selling is not allowed, when investors expect the stock price to fall, their only rational choice is to sell corresponding stocks and wait for short positions. The existence of short mechanism can make the stock market and futures market the same. On the one hand, investors can use short mechanism to hedge funds, so as to resolve investment risks and increase the safety of funds; On the other hand, investors can also "take the initiative" to obtain the income that the stock price may bring. In the market without short selling mechanism, if investors want to make profits, they must constantly buy low and sell high to push up the stock index, resulting in the accumulation of risks in the stock market. After the irrational rise of the whole market, it is bound to form a sharp decline, which will cause the majority of investors to hold on, and cause the original investment power to be unable to move, the trading volume to decline, and the market to be depressed. Only by the entry of new external capital forces can the market be reactivated, which shows that in the case of short selling can not make profits, the market can hardly rely on its own original strength, To maintain continuous activity and vitality< 2. It is concive to maintaining the smooth operation of China's stock market and recing the market risk

in the unilateral market which can only do long, it is impossible to form a virtuous circle between long and short, resulting in the continuous accumulation of risk in the stock market. Specifically, there are the following forces that tend to push up the stock index in a one-way way way: first, when the stock market is in a bull market, it is often accompanied by the increase of popularity, the rise of stock trading price, the continuous amplification of trading volume and other characteristics, which is concive to the increase of income of securities companies and other intermediaries, so they tend to ince investors to actively do long; Secondly, from the perspective of listed companies, they also tend to guide investors to be long, because the rise of their stock prices, on the one hand, can enhance their market image, on the other hand, it also helps them to raise more funds at a higher price in the allotment and issuance of new shares; Thirdly, the management also has the tendency to encourage long growth to some extent, because the rise of the stock index is often regarded as the embodiment of the good development of the national economy, and the wealth effect of the stock market can also play a certain role in promoting economic development. Moreover, the prosperity of the stock market is also concive to the listing and financing of more state-owned enterprises

it can be seen that in the market without short selling mechanism, the stock market is difficult to achieve its own balance, and there is often a situation of sharp rise and fall. The introction of short mechanism, when the rise of the stock price deviates too much from its actual value, short will find the opportunity to short. The long and short sides constantly seek the market price difference, which makes the stock price often run around its value, so it is difficult to form a one-sided situation. It is for this reason that the short mechanism in the mature stock market is often seen as the guarantee of the healthy market.