2008 financial crisis and bitcoin
The financial crisis began in 2007, and it was not until 2008 that China's influence became obvious:
on February 13, 2007, new century finance issued a profit warning for the fourth quarter of 2006
on August 2, the German Instrial Bank announced a profit warning, and later estimated a loss of 8.2 billion euros, because its 12.7 billion euro "Rhineland fund" and the bank itself had a small amount of participation in the U.S. real estate subprime mortgage market business and suffered huge losses. The Bundesbank convened national banks to discuss the basket plan to save the German Instrial Bank
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financial crisis refers to the crisis of financial assets, financial institutions and financial markets, which is manifested in the sharp drop in the price of financial assets, the collapse or imminent collapse of financial institutions, or the collapse of a financial market such as stock market or bond market
Financial crisis is a crisis in the financial field. As the liquidity of financial assets is very strong, the international nature of finance is very strong. The fuse of financial crisis can be any country's financial procts, markets and institutionssystemic financial crisis refers to those crises that affect the whole financial system and even the whole economic system, such as the financial crisis that triggered the Great Depression of the western economy in 1930
from the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: two people sell 20 pancakes a day (because the whole demand for pancakes is only 40), one for one yuan, and the daily output value is 40 yuan. Later, the two people discussed with each other to buy and sell 100 pancakes (a buys 100 pancakes from B, B buys 100 pancakes from a), in the form of bookkeeping, with the price unchanged, Clay oven rolls clay oven rolls to clay oven rolls. Clay oven rolls are trading at 240 yuan per day. The virtual economy has proced
if the price of each clay oven rolls is 5 yuan, the daily trading volume will be 1040 yuan. At this point, A and B will increase the market baking cake to 2 yuan. Some people have heard that the pancake is selling 1 yuan for 5 yuan, and when the market is only 2 yuan, buy it quickly. - the bubble economy proces
pancake can not be proced at once. On the one hand, a and B increase the number of pancakes (up to 100 or more per day), on the other hand, they sell pancakes, and they also start the transaction of issuing pancake bonds. The buyers buy pancakes with cash and mortgage loans. --- financing, financial intervention
some people want to buy pancakes, but they have neither cash nor collateral, A and B issued sub-prime pancake bonds and bought insurance from insurance institutions. --- sub prime bonds sowed seeds for the sub-prime crisis.
one day, they found that the pancakes they bought could not be eaten, and they had to store them in a place where they could not get moldy, so they quickly sold them, The clay oven rolls off the
even if the price is lower. The financial crisis has broken out. The burn cake shop has laid off (as long as 40 clay oven rolls are ready every day) - unemployment. Shaobing bonds have become waste paper: the subprime mortgage crisis
the mortgage loan (the collateral is worthless) can not be recovered, the liquidity crisis of loan banks, the bankruptcy of insurance companies, etc-- The financial crisis
2. financial crisis is not good for anyone. It is the breakdown of the bubble economy, just like the evaporation of water sponges being squeezed or exposed. It can be said that this is a return of value. People who hold virtual assets are evaporated e to the shrinkage of asset value. No pancake hoarding, no pancake shop, of course, nothing. But it will be more difficult to make some money
1. Profiteering from the sale of Thai baht
Soros borrowed Thai baht from the U.S. authorities (this kind of deed buying action is often implemented by begging for loans), and then peddled a lot of Thai baht. As a result, many foreign-funded enterprises in Thailand were affected. With peddling (Thailand's economy is export-oriented, and there are a lot of foreign capital), many people sold Thai baht. According to the principle of supply and demand, the Thai baht rose sharply, and then, Soros took advantage of the appreciation of the Thai baht to buy a large number of Thai baht and return money to the US authorities, making a lot of money
2. Make money through trading in stock market, futures market and foreign exchange market
buy stocks with my own money, pay 5% in cash, and borrow 95% of other funds from the bank; At the same time, with bonds as collateral, we can borrow more money. With 1000 US dollars, we can buy at least 50000 US dollars worth of long-term bonds.... ". They use their own capital as collateral, borrow from banks to buy securities, and then continue to borrow securities as collateral, so as to expand the repayment ratio
not only that, but also the loan is generally invested in various derivatives with the characteristics of "high leverage", thus further improving the leverage ratio. According to the report of the economist, quantum funds did buy a large number of put options as early as March 1997, borrow a large number of baht by swap, and sell baht futures and forward
3. Make economic crisis in stock market and futures market, and make profit by appreciation of commoditybased on the close contact between financial markets, the "plane structure" not only enhances the risk exposure of investors, but also greatly increases the power and income of leveraged investment. They only defend the Hong Kong dollar in appearance, and the stock market and futures market are the real main purpose of their attack. Surprise is Soros's method of investing in the Hong Kong dollar and has been successful for many times
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the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is a storm caused by the bankruptcy of subprime mortgage institutions, the forced closure of investment funds, and the violent fluctuation of the stock market. It leads to the crisis of insufficient liquidity in the major global financial markets. The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis began to appear graally in the spring of 2006, and swept the world's major financial markets such as the United States, the European Union and Japan in August 2007
the U.S. subprime mortgage market usually adopts a combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, the buyers repay the loan with fixed interest rate in the first few years after purchase, and then repay the loan with floating interest rate
With the cooling of the U.S. housing market, especially the rise of short-term interest rates, the repayment rate of subprime mortgage loans has also increased significantly, and the repayment burden of home buyers has greatly increased. This situation directly leads to a large number of subprime mortgage borrowers can not repay their loans on schele, and then lead to "subprime crisis"In the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, e to the fact that China's balance of payments capital account has not been fully opened, the scale of asset securitization is still in its infancy, and China has a large number of foreign exchange reserves, these factors make China immune from the severe impact of the financial crisis
although China has not suffered from a serious financial crisis, the impact of the global financial crisis and economic recession on China is also severe. In the process of global economic integration and the high degree of international division of labor, China's long-term development model of using external demand to support its economy, etc., it is impossible for China to stand alone again
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financial crisis refers to the crisis of financial assets, financial institutions and financial markets, which is manifested in the sharp fall in the price of financial assets, the collapse or near collapse of financial institutions or the collapse of a financial market such as stock market or bond market
systemic financial crisis refers to those crises that affect the whole financial system and even the whole economic system, such as the financial crisis that triggered the Great Depression of the western economy in 1930, and the financial crisis that broke out on September 15, 2008 and triggered the global economic crisis
The first is equity restructuring, capital increase and share expansion; Second, bad debt packing, cutting and stripping; Third, inject funds to solve the problem of liquidity. First of all, the government reorganizes the financial institutions in crisis and increases capital and shares. For example, the United States nationalized Fannie and Freddie and turned private enterprises into state-owned enterprises. Secondly, the bad debts of the banks should be stripped and put aside. After the recovery of the banks, the funds should be redeemed. If the banks fail, the government should pay for the bad debts and clear them. Third, when banks fall into a liquidity crisis and people run, they inject funds to increase cash flow. Or the government can provide guarantee to enhance social confidence; Or the government can provide a guarantee for other banks to lendThe impact of the 2008 world financial crisis on the world is as follows:
in the global financial crisis, the import and export instry at the forefront of the storm is the most direct and the most serious. First, the crisis shifted from the financial level to the economic level, which directly affected exports. Consumer spending in the United States accounts for more than 70% of GDP. In 2007, domestic consumption in the United States was about $10 trillion, while that in China was about $1 trillion
in the short term, the increase of China's domestic demand can not make up for the decrease of the US economy's import demand to China. It is estimated that for every 1% decrease in the US economic growth rate, China's exports to the US will decrease by 5% - 6%. Secondly, the subprime crisis further strengthened the weak position of the US dollar, accelerated the depreciation of the US dollar, thus recing the advantage of export procts
the US Federal Reserve continuously reces interest rates and injects liquidity into banks, which conflicts with China's tightening monetary policy, resulting in a large amount of hot money flowing into China, accelerating the process of US dollar depreciation and RMB appreciation, thus recing the price advantage of China's exports and posing a challenge to us exports
under the effect of the above factors, China's exports show signs of slowing down. In the first half of the year, China continued to slow down its export growth. In terms of export value, the first half of the year saw a year-on-year growth of 21.87%, nearly 6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of 27.55% in the same period of 2007; In terms of export volume, the first half of the year saw a year-on-year growth of 8.44%, which was also significantly lower than the growth rate of 10.11% in the same period of 2007
in addition to the decrease in the number of exports, the default rate of overseas enterprises also began to rise e to the impact of the financial crisis, and the external credit environment of export enterprises further deteriorated. According to the statistics of Zhejiang branch of China Export Credit Insurance Corporation, the amount of reported loss cases received in the first five months was as high as US $30.34 million, up 80% year on year
the amount of compensation paid was US $8.95 million, an increase of 525.6% year on year. Among them, the amount of claims in 2008 increased by 525.6% compared with the same period in 2007, and the overseas bad debt rate of local enterprises increased by about 268%
specific to the instry, the insurance instry has been on the rise in recent years. In addition to the serious impact of the international financial crisis, the growth rate of premium has decreased, but it is still more than 10%. Textile instry and other traditional labor-intensive enterprises are seriously affected
According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in September 2008, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by nearly 600 million US dollars compared with August, only slightly increased by about 300 million US dollars compared with the same month of last year, and the export in September continued the trend of slight growth in Augustwith the deepening of the U.S. financial crisis, textile exports denominated in U.S. dollars are close to zero growth, while exports denominated in RMB exchange rate continue to grow negatively, and 20% of textile enterprises are losing money; Affected by the U.S. financial crisis, the overall performance of automobile instry is low
according to the latest statistics of China Automobile Instry Association, from January to August this year, the proction and sales of passenger cars were 4.6324 million and 4.5503 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13.67% and 13.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.32 percentage points and 10.94 percentage points. From the perspective of auto sales in August, the year-on-year decline in Europe was 16%, that in North America was 15.5%, and that in Japan was 14.9%
while the domestic car sales in China decreased by 5.4% year on year and 6.0% month on month; The shipping instry has also suffered. Due to the financial crisis, the situation of ship financing in the world is becoming more and more serious. Many European banks have suspended ship financing business, and the proportion of booking ships but not getting financing has increased significantly
some ship owners have been forced to cancel ship orders, such as Jinhui Shipping Co., Ltd. of Hong Kong cancelled the order for two VLCCs in Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Instry Co., Ltd., oceanaut Inc. of Athens cancelled the order for nine US $700 million bulk carriers, and small and medium-sized ship owners in South Korea and India have successively cancelled orders. As far as the region is concerned, the eastern region has suffered relatively serious losses e to its outward oriented economy
there are 20000 to 30000 large and small factories closed down in Guangdong, among which the biggest impact is the closure of two toy processing factories of Hejun group, and 6500 employees are facing unemployment. This is the largest case of the closure of Chinese entity enterprises under the impact of the financial crisis
from the perspective of exporting countries, the growth rate of China's export amount to the United States has decreased significantly, while the export amount to the European Union and Oceania has not been significantly affected, while the export amount to developing regions such as Latin America and Africa has shown a strong growth trend. In the first half of the year, China's export amount to Latin America and Africa increased by more than 40%, Much faster than the growth rate of exports to Europe and North America
with the further development and spread of the financial crisis, China's exports to European countries and even some developing countries will be affected, which poses a severe challenge to China's overall export growth
The impact of the financial crisis on the world economy is far-reaching. According to the data provided by the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the market size of the subprime bond derivatives contract has been enlarged to nearly US $400 trillion, which is seven times of the global GDP. Japanese media reported that the crisis will lead to a decrease of 27 trillion US dollars in global financial assetsformer Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote: "one day, people may look back on today and rate the current financial crisis in the United States as the most serious crisis since the end of World War II." The impact of the crisis on the real economy has emerged, and it is almost certain that the world economy will decline. China is the least damaged developing country in this crisis, and its direct loss is small, but its indirect impact can not be ignored
As one of the three carriages of economic growth, the role of export will be weakened; Investors' confidence has been shaken and their enthusiasm is not high; Banks are "reluctant to lend", and domestic liquidity is insufficient. At present, expanding domestic demand, especially stimulating consumption, has become the unified economic adjustment caliber of the government and academia. However, it is obviously far fetched to rely only on indivial economic behavior (indivial and family consumption and enterprise investment) to promote economic developmentpractice shows that when the economy is in recession or is expected to decline, the expansionary fiscal policy of the government is more effective than the monetary policy. It should be said that from the recent "anti inflation" to today's "growth maintaining" policy mutation, it is testing the government's ability of macroeconomic control and regulation
the drastic changes in the economic field have brought people psychological changes, and they are increasingly losing their sense of security. In this sense, the overwhelming financial crisis is no less than the "9.11" in the U.S. economic field. Americans began to question the decision-making ability of the U.S. government. According to the results of a public opinion survey released by several news media on the 23rd, 78% of the respondents believe that the current U.S. national line is wrong
This subtle change in popular sentiment will undoubtedly play a "powerful role" in the upcoming White Hot American election. Therefore, presidential candidates Obama and John McCain of both parties in the United States spare no effort to criticize the current government's decision-making, and enthusiastically issue "coups" to solve the economic difficulties, in order to win over these votersthe financial crisis also has a direct impact on personal life. Inflation, business failures and economic difficulties have reced people's ability to pay, which not only increases the number of people who can't afford housing loans, but also greatly reces the quality of life of many people. Since last year, there have been constant complaints from ordinary Americans that even their daily expenses have to be rethought and retrenched
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coping strategies for the financial crisis
The second is bad debt packing, cutting and stripping The third is to inject funds to solve the liquidity problem First of all, the government reorganizes the financial institutions in crisis and increases capital and shares. For example, the United States nationalized Fannie and Freddie and turned private enterprises into state-owned enterprisessecondly, the bad debts of banks should be stripped and put aside. After the recovery of banks, the funds should be redeemed. If the banks fail, the government should pay for the bad debts
Thirdly, when the bank is in the liquidity crisis and the people run on it, it will inject capital and increase the cash flow. Or the government can provide guarantee to enhance social confidence; Or the government can provide a guarantee for other banks to lend(1) the monetary policy has been adjusted since July 2008. We should rece the impact of the open market, stop issuing three-year central bank bills, rece the issuance frequency of one-year and three-month central bank bills, and guide the interest rate of central bank bills to decline appropriately to ensure the supply of liquidity< (2) loose monetary policy. In September, October, November and December, the benchmark interest rate, the deposit reserve ratio, the deposit reserve ratio and the loan benchmark interest rate were continuously lowered, in order to increase the market money supply and expand investment and consumption
(3) on October 27, 2008, the first housing loan interest rate was reced by 70%; Support residents to purchase ordinary self owned housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time
(4) the restriction on the credit planning of commercial banks has been removed< (5) financial institutions should be encouraged to increase loans for reconstruction, agriculture, rural areas and small and medium-sized enterprises< (6) promoting foreign trade: the import and export instry is the first to be affected, and there are many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 100 million people). First, increase export tax rebate; Second, the appreciation of RMB is a means to increase export competitiveness
(7) foreign economic cooperation and coordination (such as currency swap between China, Japan and South Korea)< (1) loose fiscal policy: recing tax (the decrease of securities transaction tax and the cancellation of interest tax have been implemented), expanding government spending (400 billion yuan to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented)
(2) promoting foreign trade: the import and export instry is the first to be affected, and there are many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 100 million people). First, increase export tax rebate; Second, the appreciation of RMB is a means to increase export competitiveness
(3) recing the burden of enterprises: the adjustment of labor law, etc< (4) strengthen the public financial expenditure on social security / health care, and maintain the stability of social and economic development environment.
(5) instrial revitalization plan
reason: excessive borrowing under relaxed signature standards is one of the characteristics of the US housing bubble. Credit overflows and leads to a large number of subprime mortgage (subprime loans). Investors believe that these high-risk loans will be mitigated by asset securitization
the damage caused by the failed asset securitization program swept the housing market and its enterprises, and then triggered the subprime housing credit crisis. This crisis made a lot of banks sell off in the market. The excessive supply of housing makes the prices of surrounding houses fall greatly, which makes them easy to be taken back by the court for auction or abandoned. This result foreshadows the future financial crisis
process: the affected companies are limited to those directly involved in housing construction and sub-prime loan business, such as North Rock Bank and national financial services corporation. Some financial institutions engaged in MBS, such as Bear Stearns, have become victims. On July 11, 2008, the largest company under custody in the United States collapsed
IndyMac's assets were seized by federal officials after they were crushed by the pressure of tight credit, e to the continuous decline of housing prices and the rise of foreclosure rate. Financial markets fell sharply that day as investors wondered whether the government would try to rescue mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Although the federal government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the crisis continued to intensifythen, the crisis began to affect ordinary credit that had nothing to do with real estate, and then affected large financial institutions that had no direct relationship with mortgage loans. Most of the assets owned by these institutions are derived from the income related to housing mortgage
these securities, or credit derivatives, which are mainly based on credit loans, were originally used to protect these financial institutions from the risk of bankruptcy. However, e to the subprime housing credit crisis, the number of members affected by these credit derivatives increased, including Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch and HBOS
and other companies began to face pressure, including Washington Mutual, the largest U.S. deposit and lending company, and affecting the large investment banks Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs securities
extended information:
after the outbreak of the early subprime housing credit crisis, investors began to lose confidence in the value of mortgage-backed securities, causing a liquidity crisis. Even if the central banks of many countries injected huge amount of funds into the financial market for many times, the outbreak of the financial crisis could not be prevented. Until September 9, 2008, the financial crisis began to get out of control, and led to the collapse of a number of fairly large financial institutions or being taken over by the government
the abuse of financial derivatives has lengthened the chain of financial transactions and encouraged speculation. Finally, US monetary policy contributed to the situation. Many financial institutions in the United States are hard to escape from this crisis, and the severity of their subprime mortgage problem is far beyond people's expectation. From the Wall Street storm caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis to the global financial crisis, the process is fast and the impact is huge, which is unexpected
panic has begun to spread. It will not help that the Federal Reserve will cut the overnight lending rate of commercial banks again and again. The volatility of the stock market has expanded, and the expectations of various institutions for the economic outlook have become increasingly pessimistic. The Bush administration also implemented a $168 billion economic stimulus plan< Since July 2008, the crisis has become a global problem. It is no longer just the stock market crash, many non dollar currencies began to depreciate, panic spread everywhere. In July 2008, the stock prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two major federal mortgage financing companies in the United States, fell sharply in a row, reflecting investors' pessimistic expectations about the prospects of large financial institutions and the real estate market with implicit government guarantee. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve announced the rescue of the "two United States.". But the shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell by more than 50%, and the three major indexes of New York stock market fell into a "bear market"
the "two US" issue has further worsened the crisis. Then, more financial giants fell< In the middle of September 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection. At a low price of US $250 million, Barclays Bank acquired the investment banking and capital markets business of Lehman Brothers in North America; American insurance giant AIG is in trouble; Merrill Lynch was bought by Bank of America for $50.3 billion. Investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley became bank holding companies. So far, the five independent investment banks on Wall Street disappeared. This completely destroyed the confidence of global investors. With boundless emotion, the global stock market continued to plummet
at this stage, the subprime mortgage crisis has turned into a global financial crisis, and Europe is the most affected. Not only the stock market fell sharply, but also the exchange rate of European currencies against the US dollar, especially the devaluation of the Icelandic krona
the sharp drop of stock price, currency devaluation and bank credit crunch are the manifestations of the global financial crisis. So far, all governments are still trying to save the economy without exception. At the same time, the international call for the reform of the international monetary system and the international financial system is also growing<
clean up the mess
the executives of Wall Street financial oligarchs design complex derivatives in order to get a huge bonus and enlarge the leverage. Once there is a huge problem, the loss is huge. The Asian Development Bank report shows that the global financial instry lost as much as US $50 trillion in 2008. That's the equivalent of the world's economic output in a year
financial executives on Wall Street have received huge bonuses, paid by global taxpayers. Because it's governments that come out to clean up the mess. It is estimated that in the current round of financial crisis originated in the United States and affected the whole world, the total amount of capital injected by governments into the financial system has exceeded US $1 trillion. With the further expansion of the losses of financial institutions, the scale of government capital injection is likely to continue to expand, which will form a huge pressure on the finance of many countries. Countries with weak economic strength in Eastern Europe and Asia are facing national bankruptcy crisis at any time<
when the broad masses of the people wanted to vent, Lehman CEO Fuld became the first victim. Ward, an American writer, said that on Sunday after Lehman announced its bankruptcy protection, Fuld came to the gym of the building and was first beaten by the old staff of Lehman. When he saw that man's hand, ward himself could not help but walk over and beat Fuld. It is worth pondering that in a country that claims to be very law-abiding, journalists and Lehman employees beat a rich man violently, but the police did not arrest the two beaters, and the media did not sympathize with Fuld, including the new US President Barack Obama. Meanwhile, Stan O'Neill, CEO of Merrill Lynch, Prince, CEO of Citigroup, Daniel Mulder, CEO of Fannie Mae, Richard salen, CEO of Freddie Mac, and Kennedy Thompson, CEO of Wachovia bank, were laid off successively<
SUN Zhaodong, an economist and author of the subprime mortgage crisis, published in March 2008, said, "the rescue method of the United States is still scientific, that is, it is late."