Commodity price under bitcoin
Publish: 2021-05-20 15:26:52
1.
When bitcoin first appeared in 2009, its price was less than 1 cent. One dollar could be converted into 1300 bitcoins, that is to say, seven yuan could be converted into 1300 bitcoins
on May 5, 2017, bitfinex, an overseas digital currency trading platform, quoted a price. Bitcoin once hit US $1700, about RMB 11737
extended information:
in China, some Taobao stores have also begun to accept the use of bitcoin, and businesses will graally increase
in October 2013, the first bitcoin quarterly, one bit, was released
on October 15, 2013, the network accelerator service of the network announced its support for bitcoin
on October 26, 2013, btcmini reported that GBL was hacked
on October 31, 2013, Lei Teng, a famous Internet lawyer, proposed the event of "filing a case to investigate the closure of GBL bitcoin trading platform as soon as possible", analyzed the "value function" and "use function" of bitcoin, and bitcoin should be governed by relevant laws
on December 5, 2013, notice of the Ministry of instry and information technology of the people's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission on preventing bitcoin risk: bitcoin is a specific virtual commodity; Bitcoin trading is a kind of commodity trading on the Internet. Ordinary people have the freedom to participate in it at their own risk
on September 4, 2017, the announcement of the people's Bank of China Central Network Information Office, Ministry of instry and information technology, State Administration for Instry and commerce, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission on preventing the risk of token issuance financing: it is prohibited to engage in token issuance financing activities (ICO)
the trading platform shall not engage in the exchange business between legal tender and token, or virtual currency, or buy or sell token or virtual currency as a central counter party, or provide pricing, information intermediary and other services for token or virtual currency
on November 2, 2018, the people's Bank of China released the 12th topic of China financial stability report 2018, which talked about "encrypted assets"
2.
Bitcoin is just like the currency in the game, but no one releases bitcoin. Instead, it relies on a specific algorithm to generate , so now people looking for bitcoin also call themselves miners, but they rely on computers to mine
the rise of bitcoin is e to the restructuring of global risk assets , and the widening of investment channels for encrypted assets . Since the beginning of this year, the volatility of securities and foreign exchange markets has intensified, and global investors are looking for safe assets. Traditional safe asset gold is more dependent on the real economy and inflation expectations, Bitcoin is more like a sensitive index, gaining a certain asset hedging advantage
3. 10000, not 100 million
4.
< EM > at this time today, the price of bitcoin is 2349 yuan, and the price of each platform is true
< EM > at present, there is a way to make money: it is called moving bricks. That is to buy bitcoin from cheap platforms and sell it on expensive platforms
< EM > to emphasize: never play bitcoin futures. Bitcoin will not collapse for the simple reason that there is an instry around bitcoin. If you want to know more about bitcoin, you can follow the microblog "things about bitcoin". This microblog is very good, and bitcoin news updates quickly
< EM > James (investors holding 5-digit bitcoin) < / EM >
5. The market price of bitcoin has reached more than US $10000, with a value of more than RMB 70000, and the price will continue to rise in the future. Specific information can be viewed on the third-party market platform. Bitcoin is an investment proct with high risk and high rate of return, so investment should be cautious.
6. Bitcoin is valuable because it is useful as a form of currency. Bitcoin has the mathematical characteristics of money (persistence, portability, interchangeability, scarcity, separability and identifiability) rather than relying on physical characteristics (such as gold and silver) or the trust of central authorities (such as fiat money). In short, bitcoin is backed by mathematics. With these characteristics, a form of money to have value requires trust and use. In contrast, this can be reflected in its growing base of users, businesses and start-ups. Like all currencies, the value of bitcoin comes directly from people who are willing to accept it as a means of payment, which is the only source In China, it is defined as a special Internet commodity by the central bank
the price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. When the demand for bitcoin increases, the price of bitcoin rises; As demand decreases, prices fall. At present, only a few bitcoins are in circulation, and new bitcoins are issued at a predictable rate of graal decline, which means that demand must follow this inflation level in order to maintain price stability. Compared with the market scale it may become, bitcoin is still a relatively small market at present. It does not need a lot of money to make the market price fluctuate up and down. Therefore, the price of bitcoin is still very unstable.
the price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. When the demand for bitcoin increases, the price of bitcoin rises; As demand decreases, prices fall. At present, only a few bitcoins are in circulation, and new bitcoins are issued at a predictable rate of graal decline, which means that demand must follow this inflation level in order to maintain price stability. Compared with the market scale it may become, bitcoin is still a relatively small market at present. It does not need a lot of money to make the market price fluctuate up and down. Therefore, the price of bitcoin is still very unstable.
7. LB pass of Laifu group issued 540 million pieces through Ethereum technology.
8. This article will not deal with the details of algorithms and protocols. I plan to write another article on the principle of bitcoin from the perspective of programmers, where I will explain some key data structures, algorithms and protocols in the bitcoin system from the perspective of technicians
in this article, I will give a virtual village called "bitcoin village". The whole article will tell you the motivation of bitcoin, what problems it has solved, and the goals and design schemes of some key components step by step in the way of storytelling
question
let's start with the motivation of bitcoin< In this world, there is a small village called bitcun, which has hundreds of families. The village is almost isolated from the world and lives on its own. Because there is no large-scale trade, the villagers of Biti village have been living a barter life. That is to say, there is no unified currency among the villagers. The trade between the villagers is basically that Lao Zhang's family exchanges a bag of flour for Lao Li's family's sheep, and Wang's sister-in-law exchanges a basket of wild fruits for Aunt Liu's two feet of cloth. The villagers have been living a simple life<
physical currency
finally one day, the villagers felt it was too inconvenient to barter all the time, so the whole village held a meeting to discuss how to solve this problem. It is suggested that, as a general equivalent, the corresponding relationship between other items and gold should be compiled into a table, such as one gram of gold corresponds to a sheep, one gram of gold corresponds to a bag of flour and so on. At this time, Lao Zhang no longer has to carry a bag of flour and pant to Lao Li's house to exchange sheep. He just needs to get a gram of gold from his home, You can go to Lao Li's house and bring back a sheep. Lao Li can exchange this gram of gold for a bag of flour from anyone who is willing to sell flour. Of course, he can also exchange it for anything equivalent to a gram of gold
at this time, bitcun entered the era of physical currency
symbolic currency
the good times are not long. After a period of time, the disadvantages of physical currency also appear. Because there are not many gold mines near bit village, it takes too much time and effort to mine and smelt gold. With the use of gold, it will be worn, lost or deliberately hoarded. Once again, the whole village sat together and began to discuss countermeasures. At this time, someone said that in fact, we don't have to really use gold. Just find a piece of paper and write "one gram of gold". As long as the whole village agrees that this piece of paper is equal to one gram of gold, the problem will be solved. Others agree, but at the same time, there are new problems: the real gold needs to be mined and smelted, and the gold mine is limited, so mining and smelting also need costs, so no one can make a lot of gold out of thin air in a short time, but writing is different. As long as I have enough paper and pen, I can write as much as I like, then it becomes who has more paper, Maybe ten thousand pieces of paper can be exchanged for a sheep (in fact, there will be inflation in Economics)
I think so. However, at this time, someone proposed a solution: This paper is not effective for everyone. We only know the words written by the respected old village head in the village, and everyone knows the words of the old village head. The old village head wrote some paper and gave everyone the same amount of paper according to the gold stock of each family. For example, when Lao Zhang's family had two hundred grams of gold, the old village head gave Lao Zhang 200 pieces of paper with "one gram of gold" written on it, and took Lao Zhang's gold as collateral. In this way, the old village head collected all the gold in the village into his own home, and gave the equivalent amount of paper with words according to the amount of gold handed in by each family. At this time, the villagers can trade with the paper as gold, and everyone can recognize the words of the old village head, and others can't forge them. In addition, if someone's paper is worn too seriously, he can get it to the old village head to exchange for the new equivalent paper. In addition, the old village head promises that if anyone wants to exchange for gold, he will return the equivalent gold to that person as long as he takes the paper back. Because the amount of gold in the paper written by the old village head is the same as that in the real home, so as long as the principle of destroying as many paper as new paper is strictly followed, every effective paper can always be exchanged for the corresponding real gold
at this time, bitcun entered the era of symbolic currency (paper money). The old village head took on the role of the government and the bank<
virtual currency of the central system
a few years later, the old village head has to check a large number of old banknotes every day, write new banknotes, and record various accounts carefully. One comes and two goes. The old village head is overworked and unfortunately drives to the West
bitcun held another plenary meeting to discuss what to do. At this time, er Gouzi, the son of the old village head, volunteered to take over his father's pen and assume the responsibility of currency issuance. The young village head Er Gouzi was very clever. He did it for a few days and found that he didn't really need to write so much paper. It can be done like this: Villagers hand in all the banknotes and destroy them, but Er Gouzi will record the amount of banknotes handed in by each household. If you want to pay later, for example, if Lao Zhang wants to exchange a gram of gold for Lao Li for a sheep, you should call Er Gouzi together to explain that you want to put a gram of gold in Lao Zhang's name under Lao Li's name. Er Gouzi takes out the account book to see if Lao Zhang has a gram of gold in his name. If so, you can subtract one gram from Lao Zhang's name and add one gram to Lao Li's name. In this way, the payment is completed, At this time, Lao Li heard Er Gouzi confirm that the transfer was completed on the phone, so he could rest assured that Lao Zhang would lead the sheep away
at this time, bitcun entered the era of central system virtual currency. Every villager doesn't need to pay in kind. The payment process becomes the change of the number in the account book maintained by Er Gouzi<
distributed virtual currency
the new two dogs are smart, but sometimes they are smart but they are mistaken for smart. One day, er Gouzi was staring at the account book, thinking that how much money each household in the village has is what I say, then I'm not. So his mind a hot, privately from the old Zhang's account to draw ten grams of gold to his name
I thought it would be perfect, but I didn't expect that Lao Zhang also had the habit of keeping accounts. One day, when he was about to pay, er Gouzi told him that his account was out of money. Lao Zhang checked his account book. It was clear that there were still ten grams left, so he took the account book to find Er Gouzi. This check found the transfer without Lao Zhang's consent
east window incident! Bit village is boiling. The impeachment of Er Gouzi is inevitable, but through this incident, we found that the account book is concentrated in one person's hands:
this system completely depends on the personal credit of the account book holder. If this person does not obey the rules and tampers with the account book at will, then the whole monetary system will collapse
if this family is on fire or the account book is stolen, It will also bring a devastating blow to the whole system.
just when people are at a loss, an otaku scientist named Nakamoto came to the stage and told everyone that he has designed a virtual currency system called bitcoin, which does not rely on any central processor, to solve the above problems. Then he spoke slowly about his plan
let's take a look at how Tsung Nakamoto designed this system<
infrastructure construction
account book disclosure mechanism
Nakamoto first explained that the existing account book should be transformed as follows:
the account book will no longer record the balance of each villager, but only record each transaction. That is to record the payer, payee and payment amount of each transaction. As long as the initial state of the account book is determined, each transaction record is reliable and chronological, how much money each person currently holds can be calculated
the account book is changed from private to public, so that any villager can obtain the current complete account book as long as they need it. The account book records all the transaction records from the creation of the account book to the current
as soon as this remark is made, it will be fried immediately. The first one doesn't matter, but the second one is simply unacceptable, because the account book records all the villagers' transactions, so that everyone's privacy is not completely exposed
Nakamoto is in no hurry and takes out a pair of strange things
identity and signature mechanism (public key encryption system)
Mr. Nakamoto said, don't panic. Under his system, no one trades with his real identity, but with a unique code name
he showed the magic things in his hand and said that these two things were called secret seal and seal scanner respectively. Later, he will give each household in the village a secret seal and a seal scanner. The functions of the two are as follows:
the secret seal can be stamped with a seal on the paper. The seal of each seal implies a unique string of characters in the whole village, but it can't be seen by the naked eye. We can't make the corresponding seal through observation
the seal scanner can scan a sealed seal, read out the hidden information, and display a string of characters on the LCD screen
with these two magical things, you can trade without revealing your real identity, and the string of characters implied in the seal is the code of the family. How to use secret seal and seal scanner to trade will be described in detail below<
establish a virtual miner Organization (Mining Group)
next, Nakamoto Tsung recruits virtual miners for the whole village. The recruitment requirements are as follows:
miners are divided into groups, one group can be a single family, or several families can be combined into a group
becoming a miner does not affect the normal use of currency
miners spend a certain amount of time every day engaged in bitcoin "mining" activities, However, unlike gold mining, virtual miners can complete their work at home without taking tools to do field work.
miners have a certain possibility of getting paid. The more efforts they make in mining activities, the more likely they are to get paid.
miners can quit at any time, or new miners can join in at any time.
soon, About a fifth of the villagers join bitcoin miners and are divided into seven groups
set up the initial account book (Genesis block)
next, Nakamoto announced that according to the account book in ergouzi's hand, all the gold mortgaged will be returned to each villager according to the balance recorded in the account book, and then the account book will be completely destroyed
then, Nakamoto takes out a new account book and records some transaction records on the first page of the account book. In particular, the payer column of these records is "system", while the payee is the hidden character corresponding to each seal, representing the initial time. The system allocates a certain number of bitcoins to each household by default, but the number is very small, only a few, Even some unfortunate villagers didn't get bitcoin
then Mr. Nakamoto said that since there are very few bitcoins on the market, you can go back to the era of using gold as currency. Since I'm not the village head, I don't have the right to force you to recognize bitcoin. You can decide whether to accept bitcoin or not. However, with the flow of bitcoin and the activities of miners, bitcoin will graally increase
payment and transaction
in this article, I will give a virtual village called "bitcoin village". The whole article will tell you the motivation of bitcoin, what problems it has solved, and the goals and design schemes of some key components step by step in the way of storytelling
question
let's start with the motivation of bitcoin< In this world, there is a small village called bitcun, which has hundreds of families. The village is almost isolated from the world and lives on its own. Because there is no large-scale trade, the villagers of Biti village have been living a barter life. That is to say, there is no unified currency among the villagers. The trade between the villagers is basically that Lao Zhang's family exchanges a bag of flour for Lao Li's family's sheep, and Wang's sister-in-law exchanges a basket of wild fruits for Aunt Liu's two feet of cloth. The villagers have been living a simple life<
physical currency
finally one day, the villagers felt it was too inconvenient to barter all the time, so the whole village held a meeting to discuss how to solve this problem. It is suggested that, as a general equivalent, the corresponding relationship between other items and gold should be compiled into a table, such as one gram of gold corresponds to a sheep, one gram of gold corresponds to a bag of flour and so on. At this time, Lao Zhang no longer has to carry a bag of flour and pant to Lao Li's house to exchange sheep. He just needs to get a gram of gold from his home, You can go to Lao Li's house and bring back a sheep. Lao Li can exchange this gram of gold for a bag of flour from anyone who is willing to sell flour. Of course, he can also exchange it for anything equivalent to a gram of gold
at this time, bitcun entered the era of physical currency
symbolic currency
the good times are not long. After a period of time, the disadvantages of physical currency also appear. Because there are not many gold mines near bit village, it takes too much time and effort to mine and smelt gold. With the use of gold, it will be worn, lost or deliberately hoarded. Once again, the whole village sat together and began to discuss countermeasures. At this time, someone said that in fact, we don't have to really use gold. Just find a piece of paper and write "one gram of gold". As long as the whole village agrees that this piece of paper is equal to one gram of gold, the problem will be solved. Others agree, but at the same time, there are new problems: the real gold needs to be mined and smelted, and the gold mine is limited, so mining and smelting also need costs, so no one can make a lot of gold out of thin air in a short time, but writing is different. As long as I have enough paper and pen, I can write as much as I like, then it becomes who has more paper, Maybe ten thousand pieces of paper can be exchanged for a sheep (in fact, there will be inflation in Economics)
I think so. However, at this time, someone proposed a solution: This paper is not effective for everyone. We only know the words written by the respected old village head in the village, and everyone knows the words of the old village head. The old village head wrote some paper and gave everyone the same amount of paper according to the gold stock of each family. For example, when Lao Zhang's family had two hundred grams of gold, the old village head gave Lao Zhang 200 pieces of paper with "one gram of gold" written on it, and took Lao Zhang's gold as collateral. In this way, the old village head collected all the gold in the village into his own home, and gave the equivalent amount of paper with words according to the amount of gold handed in by each family. At this time, the villagers can trade with the paper as gold, and everyone can recognize the words of the old village head, and others can't forge them. In addition, if someone's paper is worn too seriously, he can get it to the old village head to exchange for the new equivalent paper. In addition, the old village head promises that if anyone wants to exchange for gold, he will return the equivalent gold to that person as long as he takes the paper back. Because the amount of gold in the paper written by the old village head is the same as that in the real home, so as long as the principle of destroying as many paper as new paper is strictly followed, every effective paper can always be exchanged for the corresponding real gold
at this time, bitcun entered the era of symbolic currency (paper money). The old village head took on the role of the government and the bank<
virtual currency of the central system
a few years later, the old village head has to check a large number of old banknotes every day, write new banknotes, and record various accounts carefully. One comes and two goes. The old village head is overworked and unfortunately drives to the West
bitcun held another plenary meeting to discuss what to do. At this time, er Gouzi, the son of the old village head, volunteered to take over his father's pen and assume the responsibility of currency issuance. The young village head Er Gouzi was very clever. He did it for a few days and found that he didn't really need to write so much paper. It can be done like this: Villagers hand in all the banknotes and destroy them, but Er Gouzi will record the amount of banknotes handed in by each household. If you want to pay later, for example, if Lao Zhang wants to exchange a gram of gold for Lao Li for a sheep, you should call Er Gouzi together to explain that you want to put a gram of gold in Lao Zhang's name under Lao Li's name. Er Gouzi takes out the account book to see if Lao Zhang has a gram of gold in his name. If so, you can subtract one gram from Lao Zhang's name and add one gram to Lao Li's name. In this way, the payment is completed, At this time, Lao Li heard Er Gouzi confirm that the transfer was completed on the phone, so he could rest assured that Lao Zhang would lead the sheep away
at this time, bitcun entered the era of central system virtual currency. Every villager doesn't need to pay in kind. The payment process becomes the change of the number in the account book maintained by Er Gouzi<
distributed virtual currency
the new two dogs are smart, but sometimes they are smart but they are mistaken for smart. One day, er Gouzi was staring at the account book, thinking that how much money each household in the village has is what I say, then I'm not. So his mind a hot, privately from the old Zhang's account to draw ten grams of gold to his name
I thought it would be perfect, but I didn't expect that Lao Zhang also had the habit of keeping accounts. One day, when he was about to pay, er Gouzi told him that his account was out of money. Lao Zhang checked his account book. It was clear that there were still ten grams left, so he took the account book to find Er Gouzi. This check found the transfer without Lao Zhang's consent
east window incident! Bit village is boiling. The impeachment of Er Gouzi is inevitable, but through this incident, we found that the account book is concentrated in one person's hands:
this system completely depends on the personal credit of the account book holder. If this person does not obey the rules and tampers with the account book at will, then the whole monetary system will collapse
if this family is on fire or the account book is stolen, It will also bring a devastating blow to the whole system.
just when people are at a loss, an otaku scientist named Nakamoto came to the stage and told everyone that he has designed a virtual currency system called bitcoin, which does not rely on any central processor, to solve the above problems. Then he spoke slowly about his plan
let's take a look at how Tsung Nakamoto designed this system<
infrastructure construction
account book disclosure mechanism
Nakamoto first explained that the existing account book should be transformed as follows:
the account book will no longer record the balance of each villager, but only record each transaction. That is to record the payer, payee and payment amount of each transaction. As long as the initial state of the account book is determined, each transaction record is reliable and chronological, how much money each person currently holds can be calculated
the account book is changed from private to public, so that any villager can obtain the current complete account book as long as they need it. The account book records all the transaction records from the creation of the account book to the current
as soon as this remark is made, it will be fried immediately. The first one doesn't matter, but the second one is simply unacceptable, because the account book records all the villagers' transactions, so that everyone's privacy is not completely exposed
Nakamoto is in no hurry and takes out a pair of strange things
identity and signature mechanism (public key encryption system)
Mr. Nakamoto said, don't panic. Under his system, no one trades with his real identity, but with a unique code name
he showed the magic things in his hand and said that these two things were called secret seal and seal scanner respectively. Later, he will give each household in the village a secret seal and a seal scanner. The functions of the two are as follows:
the secret seal can be stamped with a seal on the paper. The seal of each seal implies a unique string of characters in the whole village, but it can't be seen by the naked eye. We can't make the corresponding seal through observation
the seal scanner can scan a sealed seal, read out the hidden information, and display a string of characters on the LCD screen
with these two magical things, you can trade without revealing your real identity, and the string of characters implied in the seal is the code of the family. How to use secret seal and seal scanner to trade will be described in detail below<
establish a virtual miner Organization (Mining Group)
next, Nakamoto Tsung recruits virtual miners for the whole village. The recruitment requirements are as follows:
miners are divided into groups, one group can be a single family, or several families can be combined into a group
becoming a miner does not affect the normal use of currency
miners spend a certain amount of time every day engaged in bitcoin "mining" activities, However, unlike gold mining, virtual miners can complete their work at home without taking tools to do field work.
miners have a certain possibility of getting paid. The more efforts they make in mining activities, the more likely they are to get paid.
miners can quit at any time, or new miners can join in at any time.
soon, About a fifth of the villagers join bitcoin miners and are divided into seven groups
set up the initial account book (Genesis block)
next, Nakamoto announced that according to the account book in ergouzi's hand, all the gold mortgaged will be returned to each villager according to the balance recorded in the account book, and then the account book will be completely destroyed
then, Nakamoto takes out a new account book and records some transaction records on the first page of the account book. In particular, the payer column of these records is "system", while the payee is the hidden character corresponding to each seal, representing the initial time. The system allocates a certain number of bitcoins to each household by default, but the number is very small, only a few, Even some unfortunate villagers didn't get bitcoin
then Mr. Nakamoto said that since there are very few bitcoins on the market, you can go back to the era of using gold as currency. Since I'm not the village head, I don't have the right to force you to recognize bitcoin. You can decide whether to accept bitcoin or not. However, with the flow of bitcoin and the activities of miners, bitcoin will graally increase
payment and transaction
9. Bitcoin's offer has been falling (by the way, it hasn't fallen yet), and some people are wondering - what's the bottom line of bitcoin's offer? Is there a quotation point, once it falls, it will stop by itself? It happens to be interesting to study such a monetary value in the inflation market
generally speaking, the value of money depends on its activity: the central bank prints a lot of money and puts it into the economy with high-speed monetary activity. Therefore, we find that if the value of money decreases, we will be more inclined to sell in the future, resulting in a further decline in the quoted price. This cycle will lead to a runaway effect
for bitcoin, there is no high speed activity of bitcoin. Only the speculative bubble burst, and the quotations get closer to the mall balance point. This leads to a humorous question: where is the balance? First of all, let's make some assumptions. If in the future, no one in the world will hoard bitcoin at all: no one believes that bitcoin will rise, but will only fall in the future. Therefore, in the near future, we will only purchase procts by purchasing just enough bitcoin. In this way, the quotation of bitcoin depends entirely on the demand (the amount of bitcoin that people spend on purchasing procts and services) and the supply (the amount of bitcoin that exists). We are going to test to set up a lower bound: there will be some conjecture data in it, so we are going to choose the more extreme (disappointed) data. Data results are relatively small, and are affected by many factors, but data results can let us roughly know the magnitude of the answer to the question. In addition, we have the same assumption that everyone has lost interest in all counterfeit coins: we only pay attention to the bitcoin quotation supported by the bitcoin demand brought by real procts and services, that is to say, we do not use the statistical data of business channels to count the demand
let's get started. It is an excellent representative of the total demand of bitcoin for procts and services. It is the total activity of coinbase and bitpay, the two largest bitcoin payment processors in the bitcoin instry. Of course, bitcoin for procts and services also occurs in other places (this does not include the bitcoin compensation paid by some companies). The total bitcoin traffic of these two payment processors can exceed 50% of the bitcoin demand in all bitcoin businesses: the service of all large-scale commercial bitcoin transactions is coinbase or bitpay
surprisingly, neither coinbase nor bitpay clearly revealed their detailed business data. Fortunately, we can make a reasonable and accurate guess about the implied meaning of some articles announced by them. For example, we know that bitpay's business volume in 2013 was $100 million, and we also know that its business volume in 2012 was $3 million. Bitpay was founded in 2011, so we can reasonably guess that the total business volume of bitpay at the end of 2013 will be at least $94 million. Coinbase didn't disclose similar data, but both sides made clear the detailed number of cooperative businesses: bitpay is "more than 30000 businesses", coinbase is "31000 businesses". If we assume that the average bitcoin business volume of each of the two payment processors is similar, then the revenue of coinbase and bitpay are very similar. Let's calculate according to this. They are all US $100 million per year, or the remaining 50% of bitcoin needs that do not flow through coinbase and bitpay will bring us $300 million per year. In fact, since it is almost certain that there will be a continuous increase in 2014, these figures are likely to be higher. Since it is difficult to evaluate the detailed increase, let's leave it alone and simply assume that it will be $300 million in 2014
according to the current quotation of bitcoin (US $474), the total value of bitcoin mall is about US $6 billion, so US $300 million only accounts for 5%. That is to say, 95% of the total demand for bitcoin is speculative. Therefore, our estimation of the lower bound of bitcoin price is 23 US dollars. At this moment, the natural market's strength will prevent the price from further falling
let's analyze the above achievements reasonably. Our approximate data comes from bitpay and coinbase's bitcoin traffic (2013), and the bitcoin traffic of the three major business channels is accounted for by the partners working in coindesk. The channel traffic of bitcoin business is mainly speculative business (and counterfeit money business), which can hardly represent the business needs of bitcoin brought by any procts and services. At the same time, the three major business channels in the world (Mt. GOx, bitstamp, btc-e) account for 93% of the total amount of bitcoin shopping malls, and 7% are not included. We think that it is appropriate for the real commercial bitcoin demand to account for 5%
but will bitcoin really fall to $23? Very likely not. Let's assume that bitpay and coinbase did not increase in 2014, which is 100% wrong. Overstock, a US online retailer, Dell, a global PC retailer, and Xindan, a US e-commerce channel, announced in 2014 that they had accepted bitcoin payment, so the real amount could be several times higher. In addition, no one can store bitcoin and counterfeit coins at all. Therefore, this achievement is likely to be far lower than the low bound of the actual quotation, but it also gives us a general idea of where the equilibrium point of the market can exist, and the current bitcoin quotation is actually unsustainable.
generally speaking, the value of money depends on its activity: the central bank prints a lot of money and puts it into the economy with high-speed monetary activity. Therefore, we find that if the value of money decreases, we will be more inclined to sell in the future, resulting in a further decline in the quoted price. This cycle will lead to a runaway effect
for bitcoin, there is no high speed activity of bitcoin. Only the speculative bubble burst, and the quotations get closer to the mall balance point. This leads to a humorous question: where is the balance? First of all, let's make some assumptions. If in the future, no one in the world will hoard bitcoin at all: no one believes that bitcoin will rise, but will only fall in the future. Therefore, in the near future, we will only purchase procts by purchasing just enough bitcoin. In this way, the quotation of bitcoin depends entirely on the demand (the amount of bitcoin that people spend on purchasing procts and services) and the supply (the amount of bitcoin that exists). We are going to test to set up a lower bound: there will be some conjecture data in it, so we are going to choose the more extreme (disappointed) data. Data results are relatively small, and are affected by many factors, but data results can let us roughly know the magnitude of the answer to the question. In addition, we have the same assumption that everyone has lost interest in all counterfeit coins: we only pay attention to the bitcoin quotation supported by the bitcoin demand brought by real procts and services, that is to say, we do not use the statistical data of business channels to count the demand
let's get started. It is an excellent representative of the total demand of bitcoin for procts and services. It is the total activity of coinbase and bitpay, the two largest bitcoin payment processors in the bitcoin instry. Of course, bitcoin for procts and services also occurs in other places (this does not include the bitcoin compensation paid by some companies). The total bitcoin traffic of these two payment processors can exceed 50% of the bitcoin demand in all bitcoin businesses: the service of all large-scale commercial bitcoin transactions is coinbase or bitpay
surprisingly, neither coinbase nor bitpay clearly revealed their detailed business data. Fortunately, we can make a reasonable and accurate guess about the implied meaning of some articles announced by them. For example, we know that bitpay's business volume in 2013 was $100 million, and we also know that its business volume in 2012 was $3 million. Bitpay was founded in 2011, so we can reasonably guess that the total business volume of bitpay at the end of 2013 will be at least $94 million. Coinbase didn't disclose similar data, but both sides made clear the detailed number of cooperative businesses: bitpay is "more than 30000 businesses", coinbase is "31000 businesses". If we assume that the average bitcoin business volume of each of the two payment processors is similar, then the revenue of coinbase and bitpay are very similar. Let's calculate according to this. They are all US $100 million per year, or the remaining 50% of bitcoin needs that do not flow through coinbase and bitpay will bring us $300 million per year. In fact, since it is almost certain that there will be a continuous increase in 2014, these figures are likely to be higher. Since it is difficult to evaluate the detailed increase, let's leave it alone and simply assume that it will be $300 million in 2014
according to the current quotation of bitcoin (US $474), the total value of bitcoin mall is about US $6 billion, so US $300 million only accounts for 5%. That is to say, 95% of the total demand for bitcoin is speculative. Therefore, our estimation of the lower bound of bitcoin price is 23 US dollars. At this moment, the natural market's strength will prevent the price from further falling
let's analyze the above achievements reasonably. Our approximate data comes from bitpay and coinbase's bitcoin traffic (2013), and the bitcoin traffic of the three major business channels is accounted for by the partners working in coindesk. The channel traffic of bitcoin business is mainly speculative business (and counterfeit money business), which can hardly represent the business needs of bitcoin brought by any procts and services. At the same time, the three major business channels in the world (Mt. GOx, bitstamp, btc-e) account for 93% of the total amount of bitcoin shopping malls, and 7% are not included. We think that it is appropriate for the real commercial bitcoin demand to account for 5%
but will bitcoin really fall to $23? Very likely not. Let's assume that bitpay and coinbase did not increase in 2014, which is 100% wrong. Overstock, a US online retailer, Dell, a global PC retailer, and Xindan, a US e-commerce channel, announced in 2014 that they had accepted bitcoin payment, so the real amount could be several times higher. In addition, no one can store bitcoin and counterfeit coins at all. Therefore, this achievement is likely to be far lower than the low bound of the actual quotation, but it also gives us a general idea of where the equilibrium point of the market can exist, and the current bitcoin quotation is actually unsustainable.
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