Analysis of bitcoin in 2017
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
Peter boockvar, chief investment officer of bleakey Consulting Group. I won't be surprised if the price of bitcoin drops to $1000 to $3000 in the next year, because bitcoin is not really relevant in this $19 trillion economy. Any commodity with a parabolic rise in price will usually fall back to the starting point< However, I'm not sure whether bitcoin will slow down or plummet suddenly
the implementation of loose monetary policy by central banks such as the Federal Reserve is the main reason for people's enthusiasm for virtual money. As interest rates graally return to the right track, virtual money will collapse. Once there is a crack in the virtual currency market, investors' attitude towards high-risk assets will also change, and the stock market may be injured. All this depends on the market psychology and has nothing to do with the economic fundamentals. "
Emma, the first one is scared to pee, so hurry to add a BTC
Soros
"as a currency, it should have a stable value storage function. The fluctuation of bitcoin in a day can be as high as 25%, which means that it is not feasible to pay wages with bitcoin
compared with the rapid collapse, the price of bitcoin may remain at a flat high. The reason why the outcome of bitcoin may be different is that some people, such as dictators, want to store wealth overseas through bitcoin
, however, can not change the nature of bitcoin as a typical bubble. It is based on misunderstanding as well as tulip fever. p> It seems that BTC is not reliable. But an alligator is an alligator. There's something in it, but it's not clear. I have an epiphany. You can do it yourself
Robert Shiller, Nobel Laureate in economics and professor of economics at Yale University, reminds me of the tulip craze that took place in the Netherlands in the 1640's. basically, bitcoin has no value unless some market participants believe it is valuable. In contrast, gold has some uses even if it is not used as an investment commodityup to now, people still pay for tulips, and sometimes the price is even quite high. In contrast, bitcoin is afraid to collapse completely and then be forgotten by the public. However, bitcoin may still exist for a long time, or even last for 100 years "
I don't understand, thank you
"Bitcoin and blockchain attract people's attention because they think it's an 'interesting experiment'". If it succeeds, it may change the world more than the Internethowever, it is also possible to fail, and the probability of failure is at least 20%. It is suggested that the amount of cryptocurrency held should be controlled within the range of bearable loss
the main reason for bitcoin's failure is that people put too much money into bitcoin and can't afford to lose money. "
raise so much money from all over the world just for an interesting experiment? Give me 0.005 BTC
dailyfx, a professional financial media of Fuhui group, said: "as the price of bitcoin failed to rebound to its historical peak in December, the price continued to fall. But objectively speaking, although the price of bitcoin fluctuates greatly, it will not fall by 50%. On the disk, the price has obvious support at the 11750 / 160 level, and the price rebounds above or after touching the support level; If the price falls below this point, it may continue to fall later
the price of Ethereum may break through the current slope area, but it will reach 1380 in the short term from the low point of 500 in December, or it will show that the bull rally is almost exhausted. Therefore, if the price does not fall in the later period, it will be more likely to consolidate. At present, the first support is at 863. If the price is still up, it will be a good opportunity for bulls to make another correction
in the later period, Ruibo currency may be in the trend of high consolidation or downward correction. As the price fell below the support level of 2.1577 yesterday, it continued to fall. In view of the sharp rise in prices last month, it is still unclear which point the current price will stabilize after falling or hitting. Therefore, it is still necessary to be cautious about the trading of Ruibo currency. "
The stock review has been changed to currency review. Brother, I recommend a coin circle of Guizhou Maotai Dennis gartman, founder of the "king of commodities" gartman news agency, said: "nothing can change my skepticism about bitcoin. Bitcoin will bring disaster to all those involved. At the same time, once this happens, investors will rush to the gold market. There is no doubt that bitcoin will fall below $5000. " It seems that it is necessary to collect some gold2. Good prediction
cesares, member of PayPal's board of directors
"the probability of successful bitcoin and blockchain experiments is more than 50%. But instry participants must be patient, because it will take another five to 10 years to achieve solid success
if the experiment is successful, the world will be very different. By then, the value of a bitcoin will reach one million dollars. Therefore, most people in the world will want to buy bitcoin in the price range of $14000 or $20000. "
previously, it was said that the probability of failure is at least 20%. Now it is said that the probability of success is more than 50%. You have all the good words and bad words. Do you owe a BTC
analyst van Petersen of Shengbao bank
"the price of bitcoin is likely to reach $50000 to $100000 in 2018. Digital currencies other than bitcoin will also soar
first of all, you may think that the price of bitcoin has been properly adjusted. After all, it has dropped by 50%, which is healthy. But we haven't seen the full effect of futures contracts
this year, Ethernet may surpass bitcoin, and it will appear later than bitcoin, but it has a more unified leadership position than bitcoin. "
He was right about this guy last time. When the transaction price of bitcoin was below $900 in December 2016, he predicted that bitcoin would reach $2000 in 2017. As a result, bitcoin exceeded $2000 in May 2017. However, it is predicted that eth will surpass BTC. Well, it's not impossible for the second child to seek power to usurp the throne and kill the first child. It's just difficultMichael Graham, analyst at canaccord genuity, an investment company, said, "one of our themes is that more institutions will enter the cryptocurrency market in 2018. The number of institutional investment procts related to bitcoin is increasing. Regulators will approve a bitcoin Trading Fund in the second half of this year or early 2019
I confirm that this year, the public will see IPOs from some encryption companies and more widely from blockchain companies. "
it's better for me to break the news! CBOE applied for six cryptocurrency ETFs at the end of 2017 and may go online in 2018. What the hell is this? That is to say, it increases the opportunity for institutional investors to have close contact with cryptocurrency and opens channels for professional speculators
Tom Lee, co-founder of fundstrat and super bull of bitcoin, predicts that the bottom of bitcoin will be about $9000. If it falls to this position, we will buy strongly, and $9000 is the best time to enter this yearit is estimated that bitcoin will rise to US $25000 by the end of the year and US $125000 by 2022
bitcoin has experienced many ups and downs, but it always stands back to the previous high point, and the low point becomes a good opportunity to buy
since the middle of 2016, bitcoin has risen more than 75% for five times and plummeted more than 25% for six times. Similar ups and downs in the stock market will take several years, but the virtual currency world can do it in a few months
also optimistic about three kinds of virtual currency. The first is eth, which has the function of smart contract and has a bright future. It is estimated that eth will rise from the current US $1000 to US $1900 at the end of this year. The second is etc, a virtual hybrid of bitcoin and Ethernet, which will rise from the current $25 to $60 at the end of the year. The third is the virtual currency Neo developed by China, whose price will rise from US $114 to US $225 at the end of the year. "
Say! How much did the project give you? I'd like to introce you to Mr. Ali, chief investment officer of blocktower capital, a cryptocurrency investment company; Ari Paul"at some point in 2018, the price of bitcoin can be as low as $4000 or as high as $30000."
Go awayJulian hope, co-founder and President of tenx
"bitcoin may break the $60000 mark in 2018, but it may also drop to the bottom of $5000, but it's not sure which one will come first, surprise or scare."
go away + 1
Nick colas, analyst of datatrek research, a data analysis organization, said, "the fluctuation of bitcoin in 2018 will exceed that in 2017, and the fluctuation may range from US $6500 to US $22000, all of which are reasonable valuations. And $14035 would be a reasonable median. In addition, there will be four price collapses of bitcoin in 2018, with the magnitude of each collapse being about 40% or more. "
are there still four opportunities for bottom selling and position increase this year
George Tung, co-founder of cryptos r us and a veteran of cryptocurrency investment, will we see another virtual currency whose market value exceeds that of bitcoin? Yes, I believe it is absolutely possible in the next three to five years. Or as soon as three years, there will be competitors who can compete with bitcoin. "the 3000 year old little demon wants to kill the 7000 year old demon? It's still tender
Lex Sokolin, global head of financial technology strategy, automous research, said, "the currency circle may usher in a new round of" furcation frenzy "in 2018, with a maximum of 50 furcation times!" Pro, we are here to talk about the price. What do you mean by having a second childphysics developed to the end of the 19th century, which can be said to be quite perfect and mature. All physical phenomena seem to be able to get satisfactory answers from the corresponding theories. For example, all mechanical phenomena can be explained from classical mechanics in principle. Newtonian mechanics and analytical mechanics have become effective tools to solve mechanical problems. For the analysis of electromagnetic phenomena, Maxwell's electromagnetic field theory has been formed, which is the unified theory of electromagnetic field. This theory can also be used to explain the basic problems of wave optics. As for the thermal phenomenon, there are phenomenological thermodynamics and statistical mechanics theories, which can make a reasonable explanation for the macroscopic law of the thermal motion of matter and the microscopic statistical law of the thermal motion of molecules. In a word, the classical physics building with classical mechanics, classical electromagnetic theory and classical statistical mechanics as the three pillars has been built, and the foundation is solid and magnificent! Under such circumstances, it is no wonder that physicists will feel intoxicated and feel that physics has achieved great success, thus asserting that they will not be able to do anything in the future. At that time, this kind of thought not only existed universally in physics, but also had a long history
Planck made a speech in 1924. In his speech, he recalled that when he was studying physics at the University of Munich in 1875, his physics teacher P. Jolie (1809-1884) advised him not to study pure theory, because physics "is a highly developed and almost perfect science". Now this science "seems very close to taking the most stable form.". Perhaps, there is a st or a small bubble in a corner, which can be studied and classified. However, as a complete system, it is established firmly enough. And theoretical physics is clearly approaching the level of perfection that geometry has had for hundreds of years. " Another famous teacher of Planck, G? Kirchhoff (1824-1887) also said a similar thing, he said that "physics has done nothing but add a few numbers after the decimal point of the known law." Although Kelvin's evaluation of the achievements of physics is too extreme, he can find "two dark clouds" in the clear sky and is worried about them, which shows that he is far sighted. The history of the development of physics shows that it is these two small dark clouds that finally led to a big storm
the first dark cloud -- Michelson Morey experiment and the collapse of "Ether" theory. Sunlight passes through a vacuum to the earth, and light from galaxies billions of light-years away also passes through space to the earth. Why can light wave propagate in vacuum? What is its medium of transmission? Physicists have found a medium for light transmission - "Ether"
Aristotle, the ancient Greek philosopher, first proposed "Ether". Aristotle thought that the lower boundary was composed of fire, water, earth and air; Add the fifth element to the upper bound, "Ether". After Newton discovered the universal gravitation, he met a difficult problem: in the vacuum of the universe, what medium does gravitation propagate? In order to find a complete solution, Newton revived Aristotle's "Ether" theory, and believed that "Ether" was the propagation medium of gravity in the cosmic vacuum. Later, physicists developed the theory of "Ether", believing that "Ether" is also the medium of light wave propagation. Light, like gravity, is transmitted by the ether. They also assume that the whole universe is full of "Ether", which is a thin, imperceptible medium composed of very small elastic spheres. In the 19th century, Maxwell's electromagnetic theory also described the medium that transmits light and electromagnetic waves as a kind of "Ether" that has no weight and can absolutely penetrate“ "Ether" not only has the nature of electromagnetism, but also is the transmitter of electromagnetic effect, and also has the nature of mechanical mechanics. It is an absolutely static reference frame, and all movements are relative to it. In this way, the electromagnetic theory is consistent with Newtonian mechanics“ The concept that "Ether" is the common carrier of light, electricity and magnetism is generally accepted by people, forming a "etherology"
however, after confirming the existence of "Ether", a new problem arises: if the earth moves around the sun at the speed of 30 kilometers per second, it must encounter the wind of 30 kilometers per second. At the same time, it must also have an impact on the propagation of light. The emergence of this problem causes people to explore whether "yitaifeng" exists or not< In 1887, Michelson (1852-1931) cooperated with American chemist and physicist Murray (1838-1923) to carry out a famous experiment in Cleveland: "Michelson Murray experiment", namely "ether drift experiment". The experimental results show that no matter the direction of the earth's motion is the same as or opposite to the direction of light, the measured speed of light is the same, and there is no relative motion between the earth and the "Ether". Therefore, there is no "Ether" or "absolutely static space". Because this experiment is easy to understand in theory and accurate and reliable in method, there is no doubt that the experimental result denies the existence of "Ether"
the Michelson Morey experiment puts scientists in a dilemma. They may have to abandon the etheric theory that has explained many phenomena of electromagnetism and light. If they dare not give up ether, then they must give up Copernican's theory of earth movement, which is older than etherology. Classical physics is at a loss in the face of this famous experiment
the second dark cloud -- blackbody radiation and "ultraviolet disaster"
at the same temperature, the brightness and color (wavelength) of different objects are different. Dark objects have strong ability to absorb radiation. For example, the absorption rate of coal to electromagnetic wave can reach about 80%. The so-called "blackbody" refers to the ideal object that can absorb all external radiation without any reflection and transmission, and the absorptivity is 100%. There is no real blackbody, but a cavity with a small hole on its surface can be regarded as an approximate blackbody. Because the radiation entering the cavity through the small hole will not leak out from the small hole after many times of reflection and absorption in the cavity
at the end of the 19th century, lummer (1860-1925) and others' famous experiment blackbody radiation experiment found that the energy of blackbody radiation is not continuous, and its distribution according to wavelength is only related to the temperature of blackbody. From the perspective of classical physics, the results of this experiment are incredible
how to explain the results of blackbody radiation experiment? At that time, people started from classical physics to find the laws of experiments. Incorrect premise and starting point lead to failure in the end. For example, Wien, a German physicist, established a formula for the distribution of blackbody radiation energy according to wavelength, but this formula is only consistent with the experimental facts when the wavelength is relatively short and the temperature is relatively low. British physicist Rayleigh and physicist, astronomer King think that energy is a continuous change of physical quantity, establish the blackbody radiation formula which is more consistent with the experimental facts when the wavelength is longer and the temperature is higher. However, according to the Rayleigh gins formula, in the short wavelength region (ultraviolet region), the radiation intensity can increase endlessly with the shortening of the wavelength, which is far from the experimental data. So this failure was called "ultraviolet disaster" by Ellen fester. Its failure undoubtedly indicates the failure of classical physics theory in the problem of blackbody radiation, so it is also the "disaster" of the whole classical physics.
Return: xiaoximen (Xiyi Hotel, Nanjiang Hotel) - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - Kunming International Airport
departure: Kunming International Airport - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - North Railway Station (Kunming xiongye Hotel) - xiaoximen (Xiyi Hotel, Nanjiang Hotel)
every 20 minutes
Kunming International Airport first bus time: 07:00 a.m., last bus time: 02:00
xiaoximen (Xiyi Hotel, Nanjiang Hotel) first bus time: 05:00 a.m., last bus time: 23:00
Kunming airport bus line 2, Kunming airport bus & quot; Airport Express Line 2 & quot; Wujiaba (closed) takes about 30 minutes
Return: Kunming Wujiaba Zhongyu Hotel Kunming International Airport
departure: Kunming International Airport Zhongyu Hotel Kunming Wujiaba
the first bus time of Kunming International Airport: 08:00 a.m., the last bus time: 22:00
the first bus time of Kunming Wujiaba: 05:00 a.m., the last bus time: 23:00
Kunming airport bus line 3 Kunming airport bus & quot; Airport Express Line 2 & quot Jinjiang Hotel) every 20 minutes
Return: Jinjiang hotel of Kunming Railway Station - jialuda Hotel (Huancheng South Road) - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - Kunming International Airport
departure: Kunming International Airport - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - Taili Hotel (Chrysanthemum Village) - Jinjiang Hotel (Kunming fire station
the first bus time of Kunming International Airport: 07:00 a.m, Last bus time: 03:00
first bus time: 05:00 am, last bus time: 23:00
Kunming airport bus line 4, Kunming airport bus & quot; Airport Express Line 2 & quot The train station runs about 30 minutes
Return: Kunming Railway Station - Kunming Hotel - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - Kunming International Airport
departure: Kunming International Airport - Xinying community (Wisteria Hotel) - Kunming Hotel - Kunming railway station
Kunming International Airport to railway station:
Kunming International Airport first bus time: 07:00 a.m, Last bus time: 22:00
Kunming railway station first bus time: 05:00 a.m., last bus time: 21:30
Kunming International Airport to Kunming Hotel:
Kunming International Airport first bus time: 08:15 a.m., last bus time: 16:00 p.m.
Kunming hotel first bus time: 05:00 a.m., last bus time: 16:00 p.m.
Kunming airport bus line 5 Kunming airport bus & quot; Airport Express Line 3 & quot It takes about 30 minutes to get to Linyu road and north passenger station
return journey: North passenger station -- Linyu road of Beishi District -- xinlong city of Beichen Fortune Center -- Expo Garden -- Kunming International Airport
departure journey: Kunming International Airport -- Expo Garden -- xinlong city of Beichen Fortune Center -- Linyu road of Beishi District -- North passenger station
Kunming International Airport: the first bus time: 08:00 a.m, Last bus time: 00:00
first bus time: 08:00 a.m., last bus time: 22:00
, Kunming International Airport to north passenger station:
first bus time: 08:00 a.m., last bus time: 17:00
first bus time: 09:30 a.m., last bus time: 19:00 a.m