The development of bitcoin in recent years
It was officially born on January 3, 2009
since 2015, the future of bitcoin has become more and more uncertain. On the one hand, bitcoin fell as much as 55.55% against RMB last year; In 2015, bitcoin fell by more than 30% against the RMB in the first half of January alone
bitcoin's "falling" reflects the "self-healing" of its value after "fanaticism" to a certain extent. According to statistics, in 2013, bitcoin rose from 1 ∶ 13.59 to 1 ∶ 731, with an annual increase of 5300%. This speculative driven inflation has affected the virtual currency property on which bitcoin relies
on the one hand, no country has defined it as a legal currency. On the other hand, in 2014, the US dollar rose significantly, and the prices of oil and bulk commodities fell correspondingly. The price trend of bitcoin is the same as that of the latter, becoming part of the asset allocation of some speculators, which highlights that its asset attribute is far greater than the monetary attribute
extended data
Security and credit risk have also become the reasons for the decline of investor confidence. Mt. GOx, once the world's largest bitcoin exchange, claimed in March last year that it had lost all its assets e to hacker attacks. Recently, it was revealed that its lost bitcoin was probably e to internal system manipulation
the regulatory environment of bitcoin is not optimistic, and Russia, Thailand and other countries have begun to implement strict control on it. In addition, the global stock market performed well last year, resulting in the diversion of bitcoin investment funds, and the crazy "mining" activities also rapidly increased the supply of bitcoin, which may lead to a trend of oversupply in the short term, leading to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin
on January 3, 2009, Nakamoto g up the first batch of 50 bitcoins on a small server in Helsinki, Finland
on May 21, 2010, the first bitcoin transaction: Laszlo hanyecz, a Florida programmer, bought a $25 pizza coupon with 10000 BTC
on July 16, 2010, the price of BTC rose by US $0.08 from US $0.008. The first sharp price fluctuation shows the rise of new things
on July 17, 2010, the first bitcoin platform was established
on November 6, 2010, the price on mtgox reached $0.5, and the bitcoin economy reached $1 million
on December 7, 2010, the first portable device to portable device transaction was realized on Nokia 900, with a transaction volume of 0.42btc
on February 9, 2011, the price reached US $1 for the first time, which is equivalent to US $1. The news that BTC is equivalent to us dollar has been widely reported by the media, which has aroused people's great attention, and the number of new users has increased greatly. In the next two months, bitcoin and pound sterling, Brazilian currency, Polish currency exchange trading platform has opened
on March 18, 2011, the BTC / USD exchange rate hit a seven week low, falling to US $0.7
on August 20, 2011, the first bitcoin conference and World Expo were held in New York. Among Google trend counties, bitcoin's attention reached a new high, with a price of $11 at that time
on November 14, 2011, the price of bitcoin hit a new half year low of $1.99
on September 15, 2012, the bitcoin conference was held in London. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $11.8
on September 27, 2012, bitcoin fund was founded, and the price of bitcoin was $12.46
on November 25, 2012, the first bitcoin conference in Europe was held in Prague, Czech Republic. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $12.6
on February 19, 2013, bitcoin client v8.0 was released. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $28.66
on April 10, 2013, BTC set a record high price of $110
on May 9, 2013, BTC Chinese, the largest bitcoin reporting website www.sosobtc.com The company obtained the investment fund Union Square's US $5 million round a investment, and the price of bitcoin was US $112.09 at this time< On May 28, 2013, the Department of Homeland Security banned the virtual currency service of Liberty Reserve, a Costa Rican exchange company, for its suspected xiqian and unlicensed fund transfer business, U.S. prosecutors said that this will become the largest international xiqian lawsuit in history, with the scale of absorbing money reaching 6 billion US dollars. A large number of users, including China, will lose all their money. At this time, the price of bitcoin is 128 US dollars
in June 2013, Netcom said that the United States will withdraw from qe3, deflationary bitcoin and quantitative easing monetary policy, which are the relationship between the two
on June 27, 2013, the German Conference made a decision: holding bitcoin for more than one year will be tax-free, which is considered by the instry to recognize the legal status of bitcoin. At this time, the price of bitcoin is $102.24
on June 28, 2013, mtgox obtained the monetary service license issued by the financial crime enforcement network office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Transaction standardization may mean that bitcoin is on the right track, government risk is reced, and its pace of integration into the display economy will be accelerated. At the same time, it will play an exemplary role in other virtual currencies. At this time, the price of bitcoin is $97.99
on November 28, 2013, the bitcoin trading price of Mt. GOx, a popular bitcoin exchange, broke through $1000, reaching a record high of $1073
on November 29, 2013, the trading price of bitcoin on Mt. GOx, a popular exchange, hit a record high of US $1242, while the price of gold was US $1241.98 an ounce, surpassing that of gold for the first time.
1. The advantages of bitcoin are exaggerated: About decentralization, no transaction costs and anti inflation
it is true that bitcoin has various advantages over paper money, but these advantages have been over interpreted. First of all, bitcoin is a kind of decentralized currency, which will not have the same risk of central bank controlling money supply and affecting market value as paper money; Bitcoin is mainly held in the hands of large investors, and the market depth is not enough. At present, the trading behavior of large investors is also very easy to affect the price of bitcoin. Even if the attribute of decentralization is regarded as the advantage of bitcoin when it is fully mature, then the prerequisite of holding decentralization should be added. In addition, there are great differences between centralized and decentralized online payment systems in the degree and type of financial risks they are exposed to
secondly, the low transaction cost of bitcoin is not without transaction cost. On the contrary, e to the increasing difficulty of bitcoin mining and the further stability of currency value, the dependence of relevant transaction platforms on transaction cost will increase, which will certainly increase the transaction cost. Finally, the confidentiality of the bitcoin transaction needs to be discussed. The principle of the bitcoin transaction makes all the processes of each bitcoin transaction stored in each machine. If someone can determine the real background of a transaction, they can find all the transactions down and up through these data
compared with other advantages, anti inflation or anti inflation is the most publicized advantage. Although its supply is stable and the upper limit of supply is locked according to its algorithm, unless the whole world is unified and all countries use bits as currency, it can not prevent the over issuance of money only as a means of payment or a storage of value, just as the current existence of gold can not constrain the growth of each country's currency. If bits can only be used as a means of payment in local areas (such as the network), then global or some countries' inflation will still be transmitted to the areas where bits are used. Therefore, the use of bits to prevent inflation is basically untenable, or has a strong premise. As for anti inflation, that is to say, it has the function of value storage, it needs to have the property similar to gold. However, from the reality, bit's essential property and prospect are still hard to match gold. See below for details
2. Bitcoin's future positioning is too high
the expectation of bitcoin's future in the market generally compares it with gold and US dollar, which is relatively high. The recognition of gold not only lies in its natural physical properties, but also in its official acceptance as a reserve currency (or an important allocation of foreign exchange assets). In theory, bitcoin as an electronic currency does not have the unique and exclusive status, and it is more difficult to become the official reserve of central banks like gold. Therefore, it is not appropriate to expect too much bit. As an electronic currency, bit has the first mover advantage. If it can be guaranteed in terms of security, its most optimistic prospect will be as a means of payment in local areas
3. Speculation and speculative demand caused by event factors are the main reasons for the rise of bitcoin in this round
under the credit currency system, people's lack of confidence in the currencies of various countries and pessimistic economic prospects are the general environment for the rise of bitcoin in this round. The speculation of the major dealers in the market and the derivatives market of bitcoin, together with the speculative psychology of the participants, further accelerated its rise. Btcchina's investment of US $5 million and the announcement of Ben's position are the main driving factors for the recent surge
however, a lot of big players start to enter the market and buy a lot, which not only drives the bit price up to a high level, but also increases the market risk. Chamath, a former Facebook executive, has spent $5 million on bitcoin and plans to spend another $10 million. Bitcoin investment trust also exceeded its target within four weeks, raising $15 million. These people's investments not only make bitcoin further rise, but also concentrate on the holding of bitcoin, which strengthens the influence of indivials and institutions on the price of bitcoin and increases the market risk
4. There is still strong room for speculation in the medium and short term
although our previous analysis is not optimistic about the prospect of bit, it is likely that bit will still have strong room for speculation in such a short and medium term period of time as one year. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the creators of bitcoin advocate that the generation of bitcoin is not manipulated by human factors, which is quite different from the credit currencies of various countries. We expect that the monetary policies of major countries will be divided next year. With the release of economic risks and the heavy damage to traditional asset markets, bitcoin will have better room for speculation and imagination< The use of bitcoin in some sensitive areas highlights the increasingly prominent role of information in national security
the U.S. government seized the drug trading website "Silk Road" at the beginning of last month. A crowdfunding network called "assassination market" even marked the sale of murderers with bitcoin price. The founder of the assassin market, under the pseudonym of kuwabatake Sanjuro, is an extreme anarchist. Both prism gate incident and the use of bitcoin in relevant sensitive fields highlight the increasingly prominent position of information field in national security. The Third Plenary Session proposed the establishment of the national security committee, which will play an important role in China's security strategy and expand from traditional national defense, stability maintenance / urban security to information security and other emerging areas
When the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, someone published a paper under the pseudonym of "Nakamoto Tsung", describing the mode of bitcoin
many bitcoin players are attracted by the fact that bitcoin can not be issued at will. Contrary to the attitude of bitcoin players, economists have a polarized attitude towards the fixed amount of 21 million bitcoin
Economists of Keynesian school believe that the government should actively regulate the total amount of money, and use the tightness of monetary policy to timely fuel or brake the economy. As a result, they believe that bitcoin's fixed aggregate currency sacrifices its adjustability, and worse still, it will inevitably lead to deflation, thereby harming the overall economy. Austrian economists hold the opposite view. They think that the less the government intervenes in money, the better. The deflation caused by the fixed amount of money is not a big deal, even a sign of social progressbitcoin network generates new bitcoin through "mining". In essence, the so-called "mining" is to use computers to solve a complex mathematical problem to ensure the consistency of bitcoin network distributed accounting system. Bitcoin network will automatically adjust the difficulty of mathematical problems, so that the whole network will get a qualified answer about every 10 minutes. Then bitcoin network will generate a certain amount of bitcoin as a reward to reward the person who gets the answer
when bitcoin was born in 2009, each reward was 50 bitcoins. Ten minutes after its birth, the first 50 bitcoins were generated, and the total amount of money at this time is 50. Then bitcoin grew at a rate of about 50 every 10 minutes. When the total amount reaches 10.5 million (50% of 21 million), the bounty will be halved to 25. When the total amount reached 15.75 million (5.25 million new output, or 50% of 1050), the bounty was further halved to 12.5
first of all, according to its design principle, the total amount of bitcoin will continue to grow until it reaches 21 million more than 100 years later. But the total amount of bitcoin will grow very slowly in the later period. In fact, 87.5% of bitcoin will be "g up" in the first 12 years. Therefore, in terms of the total amount of money, bitcoin will not reach a fixed amount, and its total amount of money will continue to expand, although the speed is getting slower and slower. So it looks like bitcoin is the inflation currency
However, the judgment of deflation or inflation is not based on whether the total amount of money is decreasing or increasing, but on whether the overall price level is falling or rising. The rise of overall price is inflation, and vice versa. In the long run, the issuing mechanism of bitcoin determines that the growth rate of its total amount of money will be far lower than that of social wealth Economists of Keynesian school believe that the continuous decline of prices will make people tend to postpone consumption, because the same dollar can buy more things tomorrow. The rection of consumption will further lead to shrinking demand, unsalable goods, lower prices and a vicious circle of "deflation spiral". Similarly, the deflationary currency itself can appreciate even if it is not deposited in the bank (the purchasing power becomes stronger and stronger), people's willingness to invest will increase, and social proction will fall into a downturn[ 5] Therefore, bitcoin is a currency with deflationary tendency. In bitcoin economies, commodity prices priced with bitcoin will continue to fallbitcoin is a kind of network virtual currency with limited quantity, but it can be used to cash out: it can be converted into the currency of most countries. You can use bitcoin to buy some virtual items, such as clothes, hats, equipment, etc. in online games. As long as someone accepts it, you can also use bitcoin to buy real-life items
trading platform launched on June 9, 2011
price of bitcoin in China reached 150 yuan on June 9, 2011
registered users exceeded 8000 on May 27, 2012
trading volume on May 9, 2012 exceeded 2000
trading volume on May 27, 2012 ranked second in the world
trading volume on May 29, 2012 ranked eighth in the world
double authentication function launched on August 28, 2012
February 2013 -The price of 15 bitcoin in China returned to 100 yuan
on April 10, 2013, the trading volume reached 28600 yuan
on April 10, 2013, the price of bitcoin in China reached 1944 yuan
on April 21, 2013, the United One Foundation launched a donation of bitcoin and donated 15 bitcoin to one foundation, For Sichuan disaster relief
launch mobile phone verification function on May 15, 2013
launch recharge free service charge on July 1, 2013
launch TenPay online banking automatic recharge online on September 3, 2013
implement transaction free service charge on September 24, 2013
transaction volume exceeded 50000 on October 22, 2013
bitcoin China price reached 1300 yuan on October 22, 2013
launch market price list function on October 28, 2013
CCTV on October 30, 2013 The price of bitcoin in China reached 2630 yuan on November 9, 2013, according to the report of Taiwan's two sets of "global financial link"
PayPal, the world's largest online payment platform, announced that it will cooperate with three bitcoin payment service providers to test bitcoin payment, but the payment service is only limited to virtual proct transactions, and users can only use bitcoin to buy e-books, electronic music, electronic games, electronic music, electronic games, etc And mobile phone ringtones
bitcoin is a new type of virtual currency, which is generated by a large number of calculations based on special algorithms. According to rigorous calculations, the stock of bitcoin is limited, with a total of 21 million, no more or less. After being created, bitcoin has rapidly become a "fixed asset" pursued by Internet speculators
in February 2014, mtgox, the world's largest trading platform, went bankrupt, casting a shadow on the whole bitcoin instry. Since the middle of 2014, the price of bitcoin has been in a downward trend for a long time
on August 12, 2015, the price of a bitcoin was only close to 1700 RMB
on the afternoon of February 8, 017, the inspection team of the business management department of the people's Bank of China interviewed the main principals of nine bitcoin trading platforms in Beijing, including "China bitcoin", "bitcoin trading network", "bitcoin", "yuncoin", "Yuanbao", "btc100", "jucoin", "coin shell" and "dahonghuo", which are engaged in bitcoin trading, Report the current problems of bitcoin trading platform, prompt the possible legal risk, policy risk and technical risk of the trading platform, understand the operation of the nine trading platforms, and put forward clear requirements: it is not allowed to engage in financial business such as financing currency, participate in money laundering activities, and violate the relevant national anti money laundering and anti money laundering regulations Foreign exchange management, payment and settlement and other financial laws and regulations shall not violate the state tax and instrial and commercial advertising management laws and regulations. If any bitcoin trading platform is found to have violated the above requirements and the circumstances are serious, the inspection team will request the relevant departments to shut down and ban it according to law
References: http://money.163.com/15/0926/09/B4E9TIAH00253B0H.html
http://www.ke.com/wiki/%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD
In fact, the recent wncry virus is not the first time that blackmail software has become powerful. Not long ago, Android system also appeared a blackmail software, mobile phone encryption after ransom. After the software was checked and killed, it soon made a comeback with an upgraded version. This new version of blackmail software infects files with a random key, and even attackers don't know how to unlock it. Even users pay ransom in vain
we can see that with the continuous development of IT technology, although there are many IT employees, the main employees are mainly concentrated in the fields of mobile platform, cloud and artificial intelligence, and the most popular programming language has graally evolved from C and C + + for underlying operation to managed Java or even go language for modeling. The field of information security is a technology that directly faces the bottom. Fewer and fewer people are engaged in the bottom programming, which means that the number of practitioners of information security is getting smaller and smaller. The direct consequence of this phenomenon is that the backward technology can attack the advanced technology in the network world, which is very similar to the invasion of advanced civilization by the backward barbarians in human society. The recent outbreak of wncry virus may come from North Korea, which also confirms this trend from the side. Some organizations and even countries are not qualified to engage in high-end technology, but the virus they write can spread all over the world. Blackmailer software has further expanded the scope of attack, such as online games, smart cars and wearable devices have a large number of leaks. Reviewing the history of such software can be roughly divided into the following stages
from the current situation, there is no sign of easing the bifurcations of bitcoin, but the emergence of bitcoin ETF and wncry virus has pushed the price of bitcoin to new highs. Personally, I think the short-term rate of bitcoin will probably exceed 20000 RMB. However, considering that there is not all the competition for bifurcations among varieties such as lightcoin, from the perspective of investment, if bitcoin falls again e to the competition for bifurcations, it is actually good for lightcoin. Therefore, if some readers hold a lot of bitcoin and do not want to sell it, You can consider hedging with long Leyte
from the perspective of information security, the bifurcation problem is likely to affect bitcoin's status as a ransom for blackmail virus. The author thinks that the virus accepting Wright coin and ether coin as ransom will be born soon
however, blockchain currencies are more or less troubled by processing speed, and the encryption algorithm is not easy to upgrade. In the long run, the risk is relatively high, and the signs of short-term price manipulation are relatively obvious. If the psychological enrance is not strong, just watch their running track
finally, bitcoin can not be controlled by one country. Europe, Germany, France and Britain are optimistic about bitcoin. Although the United States has no policies, it encourages innovation, and Wall Street VCs are pouring in. China has only closed the intermediary platform, and banks are still going through. Then why not completely ban it? Just be cautious. Bitcoin still needs the west to lead the way, and China will catch up sooner or later.
on January 3, 2009, Nakamoto g up the first batch of 50 bitcoins on a small server in Helsinki, Finland< On May 21, 2010, the first bitcoin transaction: Florida programmer Laszlo
hanyecz bought a $25 pizza coupon with 10000 BTC< On July 16, 2010,
the price of BTC rose by US $0.08 from US $0.008, showing the rise of new things
on July 17, 2010, the first bitcoin platform was established
on November 6, 2010, the price on mtgox reached $0.5, and the bitcoin economy reached $1 million
on December 7, 2010, the first portable device to portable device transaction was realized on Nokia 900, with a transaction volume of 0.42btc
on February 9, 2011, the price reached US $1 for the first time, which is equivalent to US $1. The news that BTC is equivalent to us dollar has been widely reported by the media, which has aroused people's great attention, and the number of new users has increased greatly. In the next two months, bitcoin and pound sterling, Brazilian currency, Polish currency exchange trading platform has opened
on March 18, 2011, the BTC / USD exchange rate hit a seven week low, falling to US $0.7
on August 20, 2011, the first bitcoin conference and World Expo were held in New York. Among Google trend counties, bitcoin's attention reached a new high, with a price of $11 at that time
on November 14, 2011, the price of bitcoin hit a new half year low of $1.99
on September 15, 2012, the bitcoin conference was held in London. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $11.8
on September 27, 2012, bitcoin fund was founded, and the price of bitcoin was $12.46
on November 25, 2012, the first bitcoin conference in Europe was held in Prague, Czech Republic. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $12.6
on February 19, 2013, bitcoin client v8.0 was released. At this time, the price of bitcoin was $28.66
on April 10, 2013, BTC set a record high price of $110
on May 9, 2013, BTC Chinese, the largest bitcoin reporting website www.sosobtc.com The company obtained the investment fund union
square's $5 million round a investment, and the price of bitcoin was $112.09< On May 17, 2013, the San Jose bitcoin conference was held with 1300 participants. At this time, the bitcoin price was US $119.1.
on May 28, 2013, the US Department of Homeland Security banned the virtual currency service of Liberty Reserve, a Costa Rican exchange company, for suspected xiqian and unlicensed fund transfer business, U.S. prosecutors said that this will become the largest international xiqian lawsuit in history, with the scale of absorbing money reaching 6 billion US dollars. A large number of users, including China, will lose all their money. At this time, the price of bitcoin is 128 US dollars
in June 2013, Netcom said that the United States will withdraw from qe3, deflationary bitcoin and quantitative easing monetary policy, which are the relationship between the two
on June 27, 2013, the German Conference made a decision: holding bitcoin for more than one year will be tax-free, which is considered by the instry to recognize the legal status of bitcoin. At this time, the price of bitcoin is $102.24
on June 28, 2013, mtgox obtained the monetary service license issued by the financial crime enforcement network office of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Transaction standardization may mean that bitcoin is on the right track, government risk is reced, and its pace of integration into the display economy will be accelerated. At the same time, it will play an exemplary role in other virtual currencies. At this time, the price of bitcoin is $97.99< On November 28, 2013, the bitcoin trading price of Mt.
GOx, a popular bitcoin exchange, broke through $1000, reaching a record high of $1073
on November 29, 2013, the trading price of bitcoin on Mt. GOx, a popular exchange, hit a record high of US $1242, while the price of gold was US $1241.98 an ounce, surpassing that of gold for the first time.