How to judge the price of bitcoin by the upper and lower shadow

1. How to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin

coincola coying Cola
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how to use the three technical indicators to understand the rise and fall of bitcoin
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recently, "bitcoin broke through $8000" has been on the hot search. For a while, bitcoin rose, reborn rose sharply, and Ethereum led the rise... A week later, this big play dominated by bitcoin didn't seem to come to an end, and the trading volume was once pushed up to 100 billion US dollars

in the investment world, "madness" and "fear" coexist. Today's "madness" stems from last year's long-term "fear". However, this time, coincola Cola Research Institute tracks and analyzes the technical indicators behind the rising market, and deconstructs the "passion" of the market with the "rationality" of data< (1) mining and bitcoin price

start with the relationship between mining and bitcoin. The core technology of bitcoin is "blockchain", which is connected by blocks. Each block corresponds to a bill. All transaction information and transfer records of bitcoin are recorded on the blockchain. Every other point in time, the bitcoin system will generate a random code on the system node. Due to distributed accounting, all computers on the Internet can search for the code. Whoever finds the code will generate a block and then get bitcoin. This process is mining. Calculating this random code requires a lot of GPU operations, so miners need to use mining machines with massive graphics cards to make profits

1. Bitcoin computing power: starting to pick up

remarks: June 2018-may 2019 bitcoin hash value

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the above figure shows the bitcoin hash value. The hash value of the bitcoin network represents the computing power of the blockchain. The growth of computing power means that miners increase mining investment or increase the number of miners. Since the second half of 2018, the hash value has recovered from falling back to picking up, from 32eh / s at the end of the year to 50eh / s now, and the recent growth trend is remarkable. The continuous growth of bitcoin hash value (representing computing power) indicates that the market is optimistic about the future of bitcoin

2. Mining difficulty: stepped up

remarks: bitcoin difficulty from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the figure above shows bitcoin difficulty. Since 2019, the difficulty of bitcoin mining has increased in a step-by-step manner, from the low 5T to the current 7T. It can be seen that the rapid rise of bitcoin in this round has reced mining costs and increased market entry personnel. The increasing difficulty of mining means that there are profit opportunities in cryptocurrency market, and the market is generally optimistic< (2) the number of active addresses and transactions on the chain are important indicators reflecting the activity of cryptocurrency, which are highly correlated with the price of cryptocurrency

1. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain: a straight line rise

remarks: the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: coinmetrics, coincola Research Institute

active addresses refer to the addresses where transactions have taken place every day, that is, how many independent addresses conct transfer transactions on the chain every day. Since 2019, the number of active addresses on the bitcoin chain has been rising, especially in recent years. From 540.60143k in January to 832.592k now. It shows that the rapid growth of active users of cryptocurrency is a very positive signal for the market

2. The number of transactions on the bitcoin chain: continued to rise

remarks: the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain from June 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

since 2019, the number of transactions on the bitcoin chain has continued to rise, from 235k in early 2019 to 374k now. Moreover, since April and may, after two rounds of sharp rise in the price of bitcoin, the number of transactions on the chain has remained at a high level, even showing signs of a short-term surge< (3) lightning network and bitcoin price

in essence, lightning network adds a layer to the basic layer of bitcoin blockchain in order to make the transaction fast and cheap. With the existence of lightning network, users can remit money to each other at any time and pay very little. Lightning network represents not only the technical level of bitcoin, but also the important basis of bitcoin value

1. Lightning network nodes: rapid growth

remarks: bitcoin lightning network nodes from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitinfo charts, coincola Research Institute

the test version of lightning network started on the bitcoin main network on March 15, 2018. The number of lightning network nodes was only 64 at the beginning of 2018 and increased to 2329 at the end of 2018. Since 2019, the number of lightning network nodes has increased rapidly, and now it has reached 4289. In less than half a year, the number of nodes has doubled. The continuous expansion of nodes indicates the continuous upgrading and development of bitcoin lightning network technology, which is an important indicator of bitcoin price

2. Lightning network capacity: speed up

remarks: bitcoin lightning network capacity from January 2018 to may 2019

data source: bitcoin visual, coincola Research Institute

the data above shows that as of May 15, 2019, bitcoin lightning network capacity has increased to 1039 BTC, equivalent to 833usd, while at the beginning of 2019, it is only 504btc, Lightning network capacity doubled, and the growth rate accelerated. This means that the expansion of bitcoin has been well solved in lightning network technology, which will help keep the payment channel active and effectively support the functional application of bitcoin

the performance of mining, chain trading and lightning network is closely related to the price of bitcoin. On the one hand, the rise of bitcoin price acts as a catalyst to stimulate its performance in mining, chain and lightning network; On the other hand, mining, chain trading and lightning network are the important cornerstone of bitcoin price trend and the important basis of bitcoin price expectation<

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2.

Bitcoin price trend can be understood by looking at the trend chart. First of all, in the long run, bitcoin is at the bottom stage after the decline

from the perspective of investment opportunities, it is a good opportunity to start buying money and then collecting money. Of course, this premise is to be able to stand loneliness and stand the test of time. Tun coin is based on the year

from the perspective of band speculation. There has been a wave of market recently, but it only lasted about a week. Now that the investment window has been missed, the next investment window is expected to drop to $3500 or rise to about $4000 in bitcoin. When the investment window arrives, I (WAN Yuanfu) usually publish it in the group for the first time. Do band also need to have certain technology, this will take time to slowly improve and perception

3. Flash bull analysis: the most direct way to judge bitcoin is policy. When the policy is relatively loose, bitcoin will rise sharply; When the policy is relatively strict, it may fall sharply, so this and the policy really have a big background.

4. Hello:
the rise and fall of bitcoin is still related to the monetary policy of the authorities
when monetary policy is loose, it will rise sharply.

5. If you want to judge the rise and fall of bitcoin, you need to have a professional trading strategy. I started investing in bitcoin last year and trading on the okex platform of Ouyi. It's easy to operate and fast to get to the account.

6. Combined with the time-sharing chart...
PS, there is only one shadow per day at most ~ ~

I finally understand what you mean ~ ~
but you are wrong ~ ~
"there are so many Yin and Yang lines on the K-line of each day" - you mean "when you switch to the K-line chart, there are many Yin and Yang lines in a certain cycle", right

although the K-line theory is good, the degree of domestic market capital operating the stock market is too fierce. While studying technology, we can not only look at the shape of a K-line or the combination of a group of k-lines, but must combine the trading volume and various indicators to jointly verify< No one can predict the trend of tomorrow 100%. Accumulating experience will indeed bring higher accuracy. What you have to do now is not to blindly follow the theory in the book. You have to open a simulation account, use each transaction to verify and revise your point of view, absorb experience, and then apply it to actual combat

in addition, research technology is not the best way to make profits, The best way is to study the state's economic policies and market economic dynamics. If we follow the policies, we can often get the greatest benefits~~

7.

Hello, up shadow line, in K-line theory, the line that represents the difference between the highest price and the opening or closing price. It is located above the opening or closing price of the entity, and the highest point of the shadow line represents the highest price of the stock on that day

[composition] the figure shows the shape of the upper shadow line:

[Characteristics] the longer the shadow line is, the more intense the competition between the long and short sides on that day, and vice versa. If there is no shadow line, there may be three cases:

1

2

3. The stock closed at the lowest price of the day but did not drop the limit

this information does not constitute any investment proposal. Investors should not use such information to replace their independent judgment or make decisions only based on such information. If they operate on their own, please pay attention to position control and risk control

8. If you have time, you can go to your own space. There are daily market forecasts, morning comments, and stock recommendations. You can also enter 3863 1258 group

9. What is the shadow line: in the stock price - the difference between the highest price of the day and the closing price. Generally speaking, the reason for the shadow line is that the strength of the air side is greater than that of many sides. After the opening of the stock market, many parties were unable to attack, and were suppressed by the air side. The stock price fell from the high point, forming a shadow line. The K-line shape with shadow line can be divided into the positive line with shadow line, the negative line with shadow line and the cross star. In different forms, the judgment of air force is different. What is the shadow line: in the stock price - the difference between the closing price and the lowest price of the day. Generally speaking, the reason for the shadow line is that the power of many parties is greater than that of the air. After the opening of the stock, the stock price once fell e to the pressure of the short side, but e to the strong buying, the stock price rose and closed above the low point, resulting in a downward shadow. The K-line shape with shadow line can be divided into the positive line with shadow line, the negative line with shadow line and the cross star. To judge the strength of both sides more accurately, we should make judgment according to different forms.

10. There are several analyses on the appearance of upper and lower shadow patterns of K line: 1. The upper shadow positive K line

this kind of positive K line with upper shadow line indicates that the multi-party upward attack is blocked and the upper block is heavily sold, and whether it can continue to rise is not clear. At this time, the multi-party in the attack resistance, if the next day can be large-scale up and can cover its shadow part, then choose up. If you can't attack on a large scale, you may choose shock finishing or downward adjustment. 2. The lower shadow positive K line

this kind of positive K line with the lower shadow line is called bald head Yang. It shows that the attack from all sides in the battle between long and short is steady and powerful, the stock price first falls and then rises, and the market has the potential to rise further. If this kind of K line appears in the support position, it can be followed up boldly and timely. If there is a relatively high price area, that profit has been sold, we should be careful to participate in, careful to prevent the market makers continue to ship
3. Shadow line negative K line
this kind of shadow line negative K line with shadow line is called barefoot shadow line, which means that although the stock price rebounds, the upper selling pressure is heavy. It conveys a signal that the market has turned, and suddenly pulls out a bomb line at a high level. Just like the intuitive impression given by this figure, the direction is determined to go down. In many cases, the stock price falls below the support level, often in the form of a bomb. At this time, it should leave the market decisively. In this case, we can't wait any longer. It's a very dangerous signal. The next day is often the time to jump low and drive all the way down, and we can't wait to turn back. 4. Lower shadow line negative K line

if this kind of negative K line appears in the low price area, it means that the lower level has strong undertaking power, and the stock price will continue to rebound. This kind of figure often appears in the sorting trend, or in the second day of a huge amount of Changyang, e to the surge of profit, many parties still have the advantage
5. The positive line with upper and lower shadow line

this kind of positive K line with upper shadow line and lower shadow line represents that multi-party strategy is better than one chip. The section from the closing price to the highest price of K line entity is the resistance area of the stock, which shows that the upper selling pressure is heavy when multi-party attacks. The next day in this price range must pay attention, if it is to do short-term, in the next day failed to break through this area, and the volume can shrink, should first sell out
6. Take up and down shadow line, negative K line (finishing line)

if this kind of negative K line with long up and down shadow appears at a relatively high level, you should be careful that it may fall and should not enter the market. If it appears in the low price area, it means that the lower level has a strong undertaking power, and the stock price may rebound.