Will bitcoin become a currency in circulation in the future
According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, bitcoin can become a legal and widespread form of currency, but it is mainly possible in theory
Analysts believe that the reality is that cryptocurrency still has a very high threshold in most places. First, the government cannot track who is buying or selling bitcoin. And as we all know, the price of cryptocurrency is very vulnerable to large fluctuations. This volatility is very rare in legal tender, so bitcoin is not suitable to be a reserve currencynow the state has just issued regulations, and the relevant trading platforms are shutting down the relevant trading business, so the risk is very high, please be careful.
In economics, the functions of money are divided into five categories: circulation means, value measure, payment means, storage means and world money. I will mainly analyze whether bitcoin has the property of full circulation by combining these five aspects
we all know about bitcoin, even if we haven't touched it. In 2017, bitcoin became popular again. The last time I vaguely remember it was 2013. In the second half of 2013, bitcoin rose from US $100 to the highest of more than 1100, more than 10 times. Such a rise killed all markets and attracted countless people to start panning for gold and become miners
briefly describe bitcoin. Bitcoin is a kind of "electronic currency", which is composed of a series of complex codes generated by a computer. New bitcoin is manufactured through preset programs. With the increase of the total amount of bitcoin, the speed of new coin manufacturing slows down. There is a strict constraint on bitcoin, that is, the maximum amount of bitcoin is only 21 million. Due to the 21 million restrictions, bitcoin has been used to fight against inflation. Since the 2008 financial crisis, central banks around the world have implemented extremely loose monetary policies in order to stimulate the economy. Throughout the next 5000 years, there has been no interest rate lower than those in recent years
In recent years, more and more countries, institutions and indivials have begun to accept this emerging currency. At the end of June 2013, after the German parliament decided that bitcoin would be tax-free if it was held for more than one year, bitcoin was recognized as the "unit of account" by the German Ministry of finance, which means that bitcoin has been regarded as legal currency in Germany and can be used to pay taxes and engage in trade activities. In August 2013, judge Amos mazant of Texas District Court ruled in a case of bitcoin virtual hedge fund that bitcoin is a kind of currency and should be included in the scope of financial regulations. In China, the regulations on the administration of RMB prohibit the proction and sale of token tickets. Because there is no clear judicial interpretation of the definition of token ticket, if bitcoin is included in the "token ticket", the legal prospect of bitcoin in China is facing uncertainty, and there is still a long way to go for domestic acceptance of bitcointhe convenience and secrecy of circulation make bitcoin the best tool for money laundering, and many illegal transactions also begin to use bitcoin, which has become a major obstacle for bitcoin to become a full circulation currency
the two aspects of value scale and storage means are the hard wounds of bitcoin
first of all, the storage means, the attribute of bitcoin e-currency is that it can only exist in the computer hard disk and must rely on the Internet. The first problem is the Internet security. During this period, bitcoin blackmail virus broke out. A few years ago, someone mistakenly lost a hard disk and 7500 bitcoins, worth 50 million yuan at that time. For various reasons, people have to worry about whether bitcoin can have a safe storage property. Compared with the absolutely safe legal tender in the bank, bitcoin has great insecurity. In many cases, the storage method of bitcoin is far worse than that of gold. In extreme cases, only gold is the real currency
finally, there is the value scale. Bitcoin basically does not have the attribute of value scale. Bitcoin's main characteristic is limited supply, which determines that it can only be a non mainstream currency in the end. This characteristic is similar to gold. The gold standard is eventually abandoned by the whole world. The currency with limited supply can not keep up with the development of proctivity, and can only bring about deflation, which will seriously hinder economic development and eventually become a non mainstream variety. Moreover, the value of bitcoin itself is very unstable, and it is very easy to rise and fall sharply. In the macro economy, if a country's currency often rises and falls sharply, the unstable value of bitcoin can not be favored by people. As of today, the price of a bitcoin is 1800usd, and the market value of the whole market is 21 million bitcoins, which is 37.8 billion US dollars. A market with less than 40 billion US dollars is very easy to be manipulated by big funds. You can't even spend a little of 40 billion US dollars in the global foreign exchange market. The daily trading volume of the foreign exchange market is about 5 trillion US dollars. The small trading volume makes bitcoin a speculative thing. The CFTC defines bitcoin as a commodity rather than a currency. In recent years, most of the trading volume of bitcoin was created by Chinese people. It is generally acknowledged that Chinese people are fond of gambling. In addition, e to the domestic macro-economic reasons, they have been in the high-risk and low-income market environment, and capital control has led to a large amount of liquidity, so one by one, they are in a hot fire. So the current property of bitcoin is a trading target that can be used for speculation and money laundering
Kissinger once said: whoever controls the right to issue currency controls the worldI can't help but wonder: will global central banks be allowed to be challenged with such a core right as the right to issue money? In particular, the U.S. dollar is the core interest of the United States. All that the United States has done in its grand strategy is to keep the U.S. dollar as a global hegemonic currency. Throughout history, no one who challenges the U.S. dollar will come to a good end. Bitcoin's safety at present only shows that global central banks have not paid attention to it at all. They may have known that bitcoin can't be a currency for a long time. If Saudi Arabia announces that crude oil will be settled in bitcoin one day, when bitcoin is dried up by the United States and there is no resie left, it is OK for miners to speculate, but if they want to challenge the mainstream currency, it is the time of death
Bitcoin may be an attempt or experiment in human society, but I don't think it will become a currency, let alone a speculative commoditythe last warm tip: bitcoin trading has high risk and high return, so do not rush into this market
According to a survey on millennials released by financial consulting firm DeVere, two thirds of the 700 millennial investors surveyed said they would prefer bitcoin if they invested
In addition, according to news reports, Sweden may become the first cashless country in the world Therefore, digital currency may become the mainstream in the futurebut will bitcoin become a currency in circulation, at least not yet! There are conditions for becoming money
first, the biggest feature of currency is liquidity. At present, the liquidity of bitcoin is graally drying up
the core point of all procts that can be selected as trading targets by traders in the market is that they must have strong liquidity. On the contrary, there may be the problem of paying too much impact cost when building positions or closing positions, and it is more likely to be stifled when the liquidity shortage is snatched by other users in extreme cases
However, the liquidity of bitcoin does not meet the standard of currencySecond, the currency is stable, but bitcoin still does not have this standard at present
the figure above is the trend chart of bitcoin this year. We can see that bitcoin reached a place in March and fell to more than 4000, but recently it is close to 20000 US dollars. If bitcoin is a kind of currency, such a large fluctuation rate will be very high, It is not concive to economic development. Therefore, bitcoin can be used as an investment proct, but it cannot be used as a currency
2. After many times of upgrading and improvement, it may be difficult
3. At present, investing in bitcoin is gambling
4. The purpose of other digital currencies is to circle money.