When did bitcoin begin to halve
It was officially born on January 3, 2009
since 2015, the future of bitcoin has become more and more uncertain. On the one hand, bitcoin fell as much as 55.55% against RMB last year; In 2015, bitcoin fell by more than 30% against the RMB in the first half of January alone
bitcoin's "falling" reflects the "self-healing" of its value after "fanaticism" to a certain extent. According to statistics, in 2013, bitcoin rose from 1 ∶ 13.59 to 1 ∶ 731, with an annual increase of 5300%. This speculative driven inflation has affected the virtual currency property on which bitcoin relies
on the one hand, no country has defined it as a legal currency. On the other hand, in 2014, the US dollar rose significantly, and the prices of oil and bulk commodities fell correspondingly. The price trend of bitcoin is the same as that of the latter, becoming part of the asset allocation of some speculators, which highlights that its asset attribute is far greater than the monetary attribute
extended data
Security and credit risk have also become the reasons for the decline of investor confidence. Mt. GOx, once the world's largest bitcoin exchange, claimed in March last year that it had lost all its assets e to hacker attacks. Recently, it was revealed that its lost bitcoin was probably e to internal system manipulation
the regulatory environment of bitcoin is not optimistic, and Russia, Thailand and other countries have begun to implement strict control on it. In addition, the global stock market performed well last year, resulting in the diversion of bitcoin investment funds, and the crazy "mining" activities also rapidly increased the supply of bitcoin, which may lead to a trend of oversupply in the short term, leading to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin
Based on these two situations, price fluctuation seems to occur within 18 months after each halving. However, the data is still insufficient for proper analysis and price forecasting model
Will history repeat itself< p> It is important to note that in terms of the number of bitcoin holders, market value, regulations and the overall outlook for cryptocurrency, there are huge differences between 2012, 2016 and 2020. For example:market value: November 2016 - & gt; $11 billion, December 2019 - $132 billion
daily trading volume: November 2016 - & gt; 84 million US dollars, December 2019 - 17 billion US dollars
e to the increased public awareness of bitcoin and the interest of institutional investors, the risk is higher this time. Although many other cryptocurrencies have been introced since 2016, BTC's dominant position is still 66.6%. As a result, the bitcoin miner is unlikely to switch to other coins, which means that halving may have a long-term impact on bitcoin prices
However, the main gain is that there is a certain correlation between the halving of bitcoin reward and the price fluctuation after the event. These supply changes happen every four years, and it's interesting to watch their impact on the price of the bitcointhe issuance of bitcoin does not depend on indivials or teams, but through a process called "mining". By solving the problem of cryptography, people get the right to create new blocks and get rewards. It can be said that the new bitcoin is proced to reward miners to verify blocks. In the beginning, 50 bitcoins were awarded for each block packed. Nakamoto designed a set of rules. For every 210000 blocks excavated (about four years), the reward will be halved. This is what we call "halving" event
the first half was at the end of 2012, when 50 bitcoins were awarded to the 210000 block, but only 25 bitcoins were awarded to the 210001 block
the second half took place in the middle of 2016, and the reward was halved again, so 12.5 bitcoins were awarded in 420001 block
and so on...
until around 2140, 21 million bitcoins were g up, and then they stopped rewarding
Why do we need this half design? If bitcoin is issued too fast and there is no circulation limit, there will be a large amount of bitcoin in circulation in the market, and it will definitely be greatly devalued. One thing to remember: bitcoin is valuable. First, the number of bitcoins is fixed, that is 21 million; Moreover, through the halving process, inflation in the bitcoin economy can be suppressed
the third halving will take place in May this year. Let's wait and see.
for ordinary investors, the most important thing is the price of bitcoin. Does the rection of bitcoin proction next year mean that the price of bitcoin will rise significantly? In fact, from the trend of bitcoin after the first two proction cuts, we find that bitcoin will usher in a super market soon after each half cut. Proction rection can indeed stimulate the price of bitcoin to rise substantially. It is no exaggeration to say that bitcoin halving is an important catalyst to push bitcoin into a super bull market
in addition to ordinary investors, there is a group of people who are quietly paying attention to the price of bitcoin, that is miners! Nowadays, mining costs are rising, coupled with the competition for computing power, currency price fluctuations and other reasons, resulting in the extremely unstable income of miners. In addition, it should be noted that in 2020, with the rection of bitcoin proction and the new upgrading of mining machinery, the cost of mining will be even higher. If the price of bitcoin falls below the cost of mining, the high cost will make the miners have to shut down, resulting in the loss of investment in mining machinery, and finally lead to mine disaster
How do put options hedge the risk of bitcoin falling
recently, bitoffer is the world's first BTC option, which has no margin, no handling charge and no exercise, so it is the most suitable tool for hedging bitcoin spot risk
for example, the current price of bitcoin is $7000. If it goes up to $8000, you can make a profit of $1000 from the spot
What if it falls to $6000? You did not do any hedging, spot direct loss of $1000
if you hedge accordingly and open a put option in bitoffer, the cost will be about US $20-50. If bitcoin falls from US $7000 to US $6000, the put option will earn US $1000. In this way, the US $1000 of spot loss will be offset, and there will be no loss in the account. This is the charm of hedging.
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