Bitcoin has changed in recent days
first, the excessively free market - the copper price killer
bitcoin is born for freedom and lives for freedom, which has created a group of bitcoin fans who are crazy about pursuing freedom. The decentralization of the bitcoin exchange has been rampant for a time. The current situation of no supervision of the bitcoin exchange is obvious to all, and it can not be solved by itself, such as the forever anonymous dark village, the disorderly competition of mining machinery, etc. these important factors that are often ignored by people are also important drivers of the price drop
just think of the capitalist social system in the early days. People had great expectations and perseverance. They could sacrifice their lives for freedom and cut the rope on puppets at all costs. During the transition from feudal socialism to capitalism, people were like holding on to the water for several generations, suddenly came out to breathe fresh air, and no one was allowed to press themselves into the water again, The result is a social system of excessive freedom. The result of excessive freedom is that once someone obtains certain resources and social advantages, he can quickly devour everything around him like a black hole, forming a monopoly and giving birth to an oligarchy. They don't care about other people's lives, just like gladiators. If you lose, you have to bear all the consequences; If I win, I can enjoy some honor. But after all, oligarchs are a minority. Society is made up of thousands of ordinary people, so the system made up of people must be unstable and unreasonable. Therefore, modern capitalist society has learned to compromise. After learning from many advantages of capitalist society at that time, it is found that there are anti-monopoly laws, various anti-commercial bribery and other daily laws for proper supervision, In order to effectively delay the outbreak cycle of the financial crisis
the reason why so many words are used to describe capitalist society is that bitcoin has too many similarities with it. A brand new financial system does not depend on specific institutions or indivials, but also depends on all participants. With it, we can eliminate all external influences and keep our wallets. It's a great idea, but what about the reality? Holding a large amount of bitcoin, amzhuang can control the price of bitcoin. In the capital market, 1 billion yuan is only a very small amount. For the bitcoin market, it is enough to control the price rise and fall of any exchange, back and forth volatility, commonly known as "fleece". Easier said than done, as like as two peas in the market, you will be able to control the bitcoin in your hands. But you have to be in the market. For these makers, they can benefit from the ups and downs, because in the trend of the rising market, they will increase ring each shock period, and fall more every time the market falls. At the top of the pyramid, there are always only a few people
after more than a year of communication with players in the instry, we found that those who are still left behind are either deeply covered or persistent believers. Even if they are covered, only a few of them are entities. Most of the left behind are pure it houses, and they blush when they meet. Most of them have no financial experience, even few of them have speculated in stocks, so they are in shock, It's certain that Xiaosan will be injured< Another important factor is that, like stocks, the amount of cash in circulation is far less than the total value. Although several exchanges have not announced the amount of bitcoin and the total amount of RMB assets, it can be concluded from the data of mtgox's bankruptcy that the amount of cash announced by mtgox is US $40 million, Bitcoin is worth US $450 million, reaching a staggering 1:11. According to my preliminary understanding, the general comparison of domestic trading platforms is between 1:3 and 1:6, which is slightly better than mtfox, but it is also enough to illustrate the problem. Once the bear market comes, the power of shorting is far greater than that of long
although the stock market did not rise sharply last year, many people did profit from the stock market and attracted many of the few users who swayed between the stock market and bitcoin. Many of the professional investment users and deep-seated users who benefited from bitcoin also left the bitcoin instry for various reasons. The big reason is that for bitcoin, They think that in addition to speculation, it is a game played by technical talents. Although this is a misunderstanding, let's think about it from another perspective. If you are an investor outside the IT instry and face the world's largest trading platform, you will go bankrupt if it goes bankrupt. If bitcoin is stolen, it will be stolen without supervision and responsibility. What would you think? Therefore, the reason for today's situation is that the number of bitcoin has not decreased, but the capital is decreasing. Although there are many foreign advantages ring this period, the domestic situation has been declining. This is an indisputable fact
with the decrease of funds, long has lost enough momentum. The reason why there is no sharp decline is that there are still a number of bitcoin loyalists. Some of them have been engaged in bitcoin for several consecutive years, and almost every year they have to experience a similar slump. Therefore, they still firmly believe that this year is just a repetition of the market rules of previous years, and the final price will rise; Of course, I personally believe that in the long run, the trend of bitcoin will go up, but is it half a year or three to five years? I'm really not sure, because the biggest constant in the world is change. As the saying goes, the flowers are similar year by year, but the people are different year by year. The past experience may not be applicable to the present< Third, domestic policy - gold price killer
I don't know if the Americans have understood that it was not Japan, the United States, Europe, but China that decided the price of bitcoin in 2013. Made in China used to be a headache for foreigners. Now, they also realize the power of China's speculation. China's real estate speculators are like locusts everywhere they go. At present, China's speculators are also rapidly overdrawn the growth value of bitcoin. China, which has 80% of the world's trading volume, explicitly forbids the value of bitcoin as a medium of exchange, so it has no real value in China except for speculation
I believe that the world's understanding of the power of Chinese speculators in bitcoin began with the documents of five ministries and commissions, because before that, almost no organization participated in the international bitcoin conference. After that, many foreign media swarmed in, professional and unprofessional media came. This time, although the documents on April 15 have not been confirmed, the financial times interviewed bitcoin in advance, which shows that they recognize the power of Chinese speculators
why is an Internet proct that started in foreign countries so influenced by China's policies? This is not its main application place, which just reflects that the price of bitcoin is seriously out of its actual value line, artificially pushed up and overdrawn its value. In my opinion, without CCTV's report and China's participation, it would have been good for bitcoin to have a price of more than 1000 last year. It was also e to excessive attention, which created the fastest five ministerial documents in history< 4. Crazy miner - the ultimate price killer
the computing power of bitcoin miner has increased from 1p at the end of last year to more than 30p now. In less than five months, the price of bitcoin miner has dropped from 6000 to 2700 today. In other words, the number of miner has increased dozens of times, from CPU to motherboard, power supply, power supply, etc The chassis and processing costs are all paid in RMB. Just imagine how much cash flow the mining machine has taken from the whole bitcoin ecological chain. Once the cash flows into the hands of TSMC, motherboard factory and others, it will never be kept back. This is also the result of disorderly competition, once profitable, the number will never end! It is said that Shenzhen proces 90% of the world's computing power of mining machines, and each time the chips are streamed, the chips are less than 3.5 million, more than 20.3 million, not to mention the whole machine. A mining machine manufacturer I know in Shenzhen club said that he sold 1000 USB mining machines a minute, which shows the madness
to sum up, all aspects have exerted pressure on cash flow, so the continuous decline of bitcoin in the short term is caused by many reasons. Even without the 4.15 document, I believe a continuous decline process will be formed. As for the bottom, it depends on the belief of those who still hold fast to it and when the crazy mining machine will not continue, And the actual application of bitcoin in foreign countries
those who played with stocks in 2008 may find that bitcoin shares a striking resemblance to the price trend of stocks. If bitcoin goes up from 2000 to 5300, any good news, even an additional issue, will make stocks soar all the time. After that, although the stock surged to the highest point, the downward trend was like "defeat like a mountain". Any bad news would cause a decline. Coupled with the excessive issuance of new shares and serious overdraft of market cash, the a share once fell back to about 1600 points. Although it rebounded to more than 3000 points, it would still jump to about 2000 points. After several years of shock, it did not improve
bitcoin plate is small and easy to rise and fall. However, if the retail investors are excessively injured, bitcoin's loyalty can only be powerless to let bitcoin rise. The false rise of the makers will face a lot of market capital pressure and can only follow the trend
at present, there are several companies in the whole instry that can support short selling, such as fire coin, China bitcoin and okcoin, which also aggravates the dection process
of course, I am still very optimistic about the long-term development of bitcoin, but I really can't see how to break the current deadlock. The purpose of this article is to provide some personal opinions for the majority of small businesses. Maybe you are more in-depth and complete than I think, but finance is nothing more than that
it's a surprise that bitcoin's market has plummeted in the past few days, and it has fallen by $7000 in seven days. A while ago, some experts said that it's not too late to buy bitcoin in the market, and they can continue to make a lot of money! However, the people who have entered the market these days have suffered heavy losses. Is bitcoin about to collapse
< HR / > < blockquote >
the sharp fall of bitcoin market is really surprising! It is also reasonable for the public to worry about the collapse of bitcoin! However, this is a prediction, and it is not accurate. Only time can tell us whether bitcoin will crash in the future! Of course, we can listen to the analysis of professional knowledge
in the view of analysts, the sharp decline of bitcoin is closely related to the frequent theft incidents in recent years. On December 21, the media reported that the Ukrainian bitcoin exchange liqui was attacked by hackers, resulting in 60000 bitcoins being stolen and hackers madly shipping. On December 19, youtube, a bitcoin trading platform in South Korea, was also attacked by hackers, resulting in the theft of users' funds. Due to hacker attacks, the platform lost 17% of its assets, and yapian, the parent company of youtube, immediately filed for bankruptcy protection
summary: it is understood that the circulation of wax coins in the announcement of the trading platform is 185 million, while the actual circulation in the official wax platform is 1.85 billion. Instry insiders said that this is also a major negative factor in the current digital money market. Xiao Lei said that the fall is a very important turning point, rather than the "bubble" of digital money being broken, but a process of squeezing the bubble in a big way. strong>
for all the things traded, some people buy and some people sell, the number of people who buy will rise and the number of people who sell will fall
and the person who bought one minute before may want to sell one minute later, and the person who sold one minute before may want to buy one minute later
because who among the holders can accurately predict whether it will rise or fall
if you can predict that it will keep falling, why do you buy it? In fact, many retail investors are reluctant to cut their losses when they fall below the cost price. It is very common for them to drag on for two or three years
you should not think that you are smarter than others, even if you are willing to cut the meat, if you rebound immediately after cutting the meat, you will be slapped on both sides< In a word, no one can predict what will happen in two years.
from the moment bitcoin proced value to the sky high price of nearly $20000 gold, bitcoin rose by tens of thousands of times ring this period, which also created a lot of people's freedom of wealth. Most investors love and hate bitcoin. They love speculative property, and they have no limit to the rise and fall. They hate to be unable to analyze the market and make profits in the market
so why is it still suitable to buy bitcoin in 2020
1. The third proction rection
in May, bitcoin reced its proction for the third time. Under the hype of the proction rection market, the third proction rection of bitcoin brought confidence to most investors in the market, but the price did not change significantly
judging from the market, bitcoin is leading the rise of other financial procts under the same conditions. It dropped to $3800 in March, and then rose all the way to about $10000, walking out of the V-shaped reversal
the V-shaped reversal is not easy. After all, the previous market had to be sorted out for several months before going up. This also illustrates the purchasing power of bitcoin in the market
moreover, after halving, the amount of bitcoin g up by the miners has graally decreased. In addition to the lost bitcoin, there are not many bitcoins in circulation in the market, and the bitcoin market is a market brought about by demand. With many external factors, many investors want to use bitcoin for risk hedging, and the liquidity of the market is expanding step by step<
2. Institutions bought a lot
after halving, gray alone increased its holdings of 18910 bitcoins, while after halving, the miners only mined 12337 bitcoins, indicating that the number of gray holdings increased was 150% of the total mining amount of miners in the same period
in addition to institutions, some celebrities have also publicly expressed their desire to buy bitcoin. For example, the author of "poor dad, rich dad" tweeted the reason why he wanted to invest in bitcoin. Before that, he repeatedly said that with the continuous release of water from the Federal Reserve, bitcoin may become a good hedging tool to deal with the current financial crisis
with the entry of specialized institutional teams, bitcoin has been known by more and more people, and its value has also been understood by more and more people< 3. Bitcoin leads the global financial asset growth
the secondary market of bitcoin is huge, with the number of new addresses and active addresses increasing every day. There are many people who know about bitcoin but don't enter the market
the massive entry of foreign institutions leads to the concentration of some chips. In this process, it is not only the transfer of chips, but also the transfer of price rights.
There's always a reason for
bitcoin has not experienced big ups and falls for several days, and it may have much to do with the bubble of the market. Tesla's float is up to 990 million US dollars, or about 6 billion 400 million yuan. Some people really like this price, while others worry about it. After all, some people have made a lot of money in bitcoin, but some people think that the bubble will always be broken. The high price now does not know what will bring serious consequences. p> Third, the price of bitcoin can not be sustained< p> JPMorgan team believes that bitcoin's surge since January this year seems to be more affected by speculative capital flows. Analysts at the bank pointed out that in the past five months, the total institutional inflow was only about $11 billion, but the market value of bitcoin increased by about $700 billion. According to Xinhua news agency, JP Morgan believes that from the perspective of risk assets, the reasonable price range of bitcoin is $11000 to $25000. The price of $25000 has reflected the long-term acceptance of bitcoin by institutions, and the current price of more than $50000 is unsustainable
The world of currency circles is always full of "stimulation" and uncertainty. Just a few days ago, all the people in the coin circle were still cheering for the new high of bitcoin, but less than two days later, bitcoin suffered another collapse. On November 29, a reporter from Beijing business daily noticed that since November 7, the price of bitcoin has been rising from US $17815 on November 22 to US $19500 on November 25, a three-year high. However, the good news did not last long. On November 26, bitcoin fell again in an avalanche, and once fell by more than 14% within the day