Bitcoin illusion

1. bitcoin is illegal now. Our country banned ICO before and prohibited digital transactions such as bitcoin on exchanges. Bitcoin collapsed two days ago, with a maximum decline of more than 20%. Last December, bitcoin was still worth US $20000, and now it has dropped by nearly half. Besides bitcoin, other digital currencies have also plummeted. Bitcoin is too profiteering, It is particularly easy to become a tool for money laundering and arbitrage. How can the state allow it? Many countries have begun to regulate it
bitcoin originated in the United States, developed stronger than China, and was strongly regulated in China, fled abroad, and eventually ended up in the United States. In the past, China's digital currency transactions accounted for 93% of the world's total, which is a terrible data. However, China took the initiative in time to avoid a large-scale wool shearing in the world, without the government's credit support and legal protection, Bitcoin is just a carnival of anarchism and wealth illusion!

2.

it's not that you can't buy it, but that you don't recommend it. Bitcoin has many years of history. It can be regarded as a fraud or a fraud. At least, it will not become a bubble in a short time. but Shanzhai coins are different. They are of various types, and they may fall into the pig slaughtering plate if they are not familiar with them in addition, when you don't know anything about investment and finance, you'd rather deposit in the bank than buy funds or stocks

there are risks in the stock market, so investment should be cautious. In fact, it is not only the stock market, but also all the problems related to investment. When the investment graally becomes popular, it does not mean that people have financial ideas, but only that the leek base has been expanded

3. Most people who don't know how to buy and want to invest will have an idea, that is, to see how much others earn and also want to invest. But I don't know anything. I don't dare to vote if I want to< in this situation, the best choice is not to vote. Whether it's funds, virtual currencies, stocks, we all need to have enough understanding of the market

take the most basic gold as an example. Some people can make money, while others can only lose money. This is not e to luck, but from the judgment of market trends. New leeks don't know anything, they can only be cut in the end

3.

Bitcoin BTC 2009 Satoshi Nakamoto is bitcoin / org ~ $24.3 billion is SHA-256; LTC 2011 coblee is litecoin / org ~ $3.6 billion is script infinite; IFC 2012 ifccion is ifccoin / ORG~$ $20 million is a script quark, qrk 2012, qrkcion is cgbcion / org - $10 million is a script zeta, ZET 2012 zetcony is ZET / org - $10 million is a script proof of work / POS

4.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance in Nebraska, Buffett once again despised digital currency investment, saying that "buying bitcoin is not an investment"

According to Buffett, people usually buy two kinds of things, one is a real investment, the other is not. Bitcoin belongs to the latter

Buffett believes that when buying cryptocurrency, it is not investment but speculation“ There's nothing wrong with that. If you want to gamble, someone will come tomorrow and be willing to pay more. This is a kind of gambling. It's not an investment. "

this is not the first time that Buffett has lashed out at bitcoin and the virtual money market. In January 2018, Buffett predicted that cryptocurrency would definitely have a "bad ending"< At that time, Buffett said in an interview: "I don't know when and how the bad results will happen, but what I know is that if I am asked to buy long-term put options, I will buy five-year put options for each cryptocurrency. I'll be happy to do that, but I won't invest a dime in it. "< In the end, Buffett concluded that cryptocurrency is a decent business, but what is happening will eventually become a bad ending that everyone can see

from: surging news

agree with Buffett's point of view

5.

No, but it seems that it is difficult to explain in a few simple sentences. Let's study this ark article together

to expose the common myth of bitcoin

bitcoin has been established for more than 11 years and is striving to be widely recognized by institutions. Although constructive criticism is healthy, ark believes that some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

in view of Goldman Sachs' recent position on bitcoin, ark is reconsidering the most common misunderstanding, which has affected its acceptance. We look forward to participating in the health and ecational debate on bitcoin, as well as the important role we believe bitcoin should play in a diversified portfolio

According to ark, some influential financial research institutions are refuting bitcoin based on outdated information, inconsistent arguments and flawed analysis

statement: bitcoin is too volatile to serve as a store of value. Counterclaim
: the volatility of bitcoin highlights the credibility of its monetary policy

critics often point out that the volatility of bitcoin is the "value store transaction breaker". Why would anyone want to store the price of an asset in such drastic fluctuations in daily prices

we believe that these critics do not understand why bitcoin fluctuates and why its volatility may decrease

although the fluctuation of bitcoin distracts opponents from evaluating its role as a value storage tool, it actually highlights the credibility of its monetary policy. The impossible trinity is the dilemma of macroeconomic policy. As shown in the figure below, the dilemma assumes that when setting monetary targets, the decision-maker can satisfy two of the three goals instead of three, because the third goal is opposite to one of the first two goals

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd. in 2020, each side of the three difficulties triangle is mutually exclusive. For example, monetary authorities that choose a fixed exchange rate and allow free capital flow cannot control the growth of money supply. Similarly, the monetary authorities that choose fixed exchange rate and control currency can not accommodate the free flow of capital, and the monetary authorities that choose to accommodate the free flow of capital and control money supply can not determine the exchange rate

based on the three dilemmas, we can understand why volatility is the natural result of bitcoin monetary policy. Contrary to the modern central bank, it does not give priority to exchange rate stability. On the contrary, based on the quantitative rules of money, bitcoin limits the growth of money supply, allows the free flow of capital, and abandons the stable exchange rate. As a result, the price of bitcoin is a function of demand relative to its supply. Its volatility is not surprising

that is to say, over time, the volatility of bitcoin is decreasing, as shown below. With the increase of adoption rate, the marginal demand of bitcoin should account for a small proportion of its total network value, so as to rece the price fluctuation. If all other conditions are equal, for example, a new demand of $1 billion with a market value of $10 billion or a network value, the impact of the price of the bitcoin should be greater than a new demand of $1 billion with a network value of $100 billion. Importantly, we believe that volatility should not rule out the main reason why bitcoin is used as a store of value, mainly because it usually occurs at the same time as a sharp rise in price

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

for a long time, the purchasing power of bitcoin has been greatly improved. For example, since 2011, the price of bitcoin has grown at a compound rate of about 200% per year. Although significant changes have taken place in the year, since 2014, the price of bitcoin has appreciated year by year at its lowest price. It's been a good year

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: Coinmetrics

claims: bitcoin bubble. Counterclaim
: bitcoin is a competitor for the role of global currency

, some economists like Nouriel Roubini (Nouriel Roubini) believe that bitcoin will suddenly disappear when it is in the bubble. The line of reasoning is that bitcoin has no intrinsic value, and its appreciation depends on speculation, such as a hot potato or tulip game, and the willingness of the "bigger fool" to pay a higher price. They believe that bitcoin is not an investable asset

we believe that this statement eliminates the reason why bitcoin has accumulated value over time. Yes, bitcoin doesn't behave like a traditional investable asset[ 1] The value of equity is determined by discounting the expected cash flow. Given the high future cash flow based on growth and / or investment capital gains, the stock appreciates independently of the shareholder base

However, monetary assets such as bitcoin are unproctive, and their appreciation depends on how they effectively maintain or increase their value over time. In a sense, the value proposition is cyclical: monetary assets will appreciate with the demand of more people, and if it is an effective monetary asset, more people will evaluate it. In other words, "money is a common illusion" and "money is valuable because others think it is valuable"

The claim that the value of money depends entirely on the common illusion, however, indicates that the form of money is arbitrary. In fact, according to monetary history, the most common and sustainable currencies have the quality of maintaining their demand. For example, for thousands of years, because of its scarcity, substitutability and rability, economists have regarded gold as the most successful form of money

we think that bitcoin is usually called digital gold, which not only has many characteristics of gold, but also can improve them. Although bitcoin is rare and rable, it also has the characteristics of divisibility, verifiability, portability and transferability. A series of monetary features of bitcoin endow it with outstanding utility, which is likely to promote demand, and believes that bitcoin is suitable for the role of global digital currency even if it is not superior

we believe that as a suitable competitor for the first batch of global digital currencies, bitcoin should at least attract demand similar to gold. However, contrary to the claim that it is in a huge bubble, the net value (or market value) of bitcoin is less than 2% of gold. p>

prediction is limited in nature, so it cannot be relied on

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

statement: bitcoin will lose the value of fork and digital . Counterclaim
: the value of bitcoin cannot be copied only by software

in the digital field, goods are invisible and can be easily copied without destroying the original goods. Indivials can send word documents extensively by e-mail, for example, while retaining the original . Similarly, thousands of people can listen to a song simultaneously and repeatedly, which actually improves the value of the original work, especially when other songwriters imitate its unique voice

Bitcoin software is no exception. It's free and open source. Indivials can software, "create network branches" and create their own versions. However, skeptics still question how scarce bitcoin will be if it is based on open source software that can be copied indefinitely

first, the bifurcated bitcoin network will not create new bitcoin units, just as the expansion of Venezuela's Bolivar will not add dollars to the US monetary base. Instead, bifurcated bitcoin creates a new network with new units or coins. Although existing bitcoin holders have the right to use new coins, the forked network operates under a set of independent rules supported by a single stakeholder. Open source software does not dilute the money supply of the original network. It not only encourages cheap experiments and new networks, but also encourages new tokens and competitive markets

the scarcity of bitcoin is crucial to its network. Today, the number of bitcoins has reached 18 million, which is measured mathematically to 21 million, as shown below. Each bitcoin is linked to a wallet at a time and cannot be copied. Importantly, the only way to control user bitcoin is to have access to its associated private key

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

so, when it forks, what makes 21 million units in bitcoin network more valuable than 21 million units in bitcoin cash (BCH) or BTC? To equate the value of bitcoin cash with the value of bitcoin is equivalent to assuming that Facebook's source code can "fork" and automatically the value of its 2.6 billion users and 50000 employees. Their value comes from the network effects of bitcoin and Facebook, not just their existence

as far as bitcoin is concerned, we believe that network effects include not only the efforts to protect the hash rate of the blockchain, but also the liquidity of bitcoin and the infrastructure supporting its adoption and use. If it is dilutive, then bifurcations will have to share bitcoin's computing power, users and liquidity. As shown below, bitcoin cash and other bifurcations do not seem to derail bitcoin's network effects

source: Fangzhou Investment Management Co., Ltd., 2020. Source: coinmetrics

claims that bitcoin is for criminals
counterclaim: bitcoin is anti censorship

critics still accuse bitcoin of allowing criminal activities because of its early evil activities. In its early years, bitcoin financed the Silk Road, an online black market platform known for selling illegal drugs

In our opinion, criticizing bitcoin for promoting criminal activities is one of its basic value propositions: censorship. As a neutral technology, bitcoin allows anyone to trade and cannot identify "criminals". It does not rely on centralized permissions to identify participants by name or IP address, but by encrypted digital key and address to distinguish participants, thus giving bitcoin powerful censorship ability. Anyone can trade anytime, anywhere as long as the participants pay the miners. Once secured, the transaction cannot be easily reversed

if criminal activities can be censored on the bitcoin network, then all activities can be censored. On the contrary, bitcoin allows anyone to exchange value globally and without permission. This is not to make it an inherent tool of crime. Phones, cars and the Internet are no less powerful than bitcoin in promoting crime

In other words, it seems that only a small part of bitcoin transactions are for illegal purposes. According to chainalysis, the number of bitcoin transactions related to illegal activities is still less than 1%, which may be a contribution to the transparency of bitcoin. Any user can view the complete history of transactions on the Internet, which shows that physical cash is a better means of illegal activities

6. Why do we choose gold as reserve? It has some characteristics: long-term preservation, no loss, scarcity, and impossible to appear in large quantities. This ensures the anti currency nature of gold. Unlike legal tender, which can be controlled by the government or organizations, the output of gold is there, so its value is stable and permanent. Bitcoin also has the advantages of gold, Only one thing is real and the other is virtual. The output of bitcoin can not be controlled by any government or organization. In other words, if the quantity of an item is constant and recognized by the public, it may become currency, such as ancient shells, Copper money (when copper mining is very low) and paper money is only a representative symbol of the above real money. Bitcoin has the advantages of non plication and constant output, so the bubble theory has certain limitations. Just like what is called Road, people walk more is the road, as for whether it is recognized by the state, as long as the road can not be sealed by the state, then there will be people walking on the road. After all, the road is convenient for people, and the recognized road is charged. As for the price of the roller coaster, I understand the following: 1, the imperfect protection measures, resulting in the risk of theft. 2. Excessive speculation on a commodity leads to a bubble. 3. Disapproval of real currency. I'm not studying economics, just some of my ideas. Welcome to discuss. Amir taaki, a core developer, said: "it can be said that bitcoin follows the hype cycle of gaudner. This refers to the theoretical curve of a technology from adoption to maturity. This cycle can be divided into three stages: Technology budding stage, overheating stage, disillusionment Valley stage, recovery stage and proctivity maturity stage. According to this theory, bitcoin is coming out of the disillusionment trough.

7. There are three main methods:

1. Mining: Mining to obtain bitcoin by investing in the purchase of bitcoin miner
2. Transaction: purchase bitcoin through bitcoin trading platform
3. Selling services or goods: to obtain bitcoin by selling goods or services in the east west market and other commodity trading markets
PS: some small amount websites send

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8.

The first time I paid attention to buffet's lunch was because I saw sun Yuchen shoot it for $4567888 on the Internet; Eat steak with Warren Buffet & quot; It's news. Sun broke the record for the highest bid in 20 years

so far, even if sun didn't eat the steak later, four successful Chinese bidders, Duan Yongping, Zhao Danyang, Zhu ye, and sun Yuchen, contributed more than three-quarters of the proceeds of the glide foundation auction in San Francisco. What is the attraction of this high price steak

first of all, the guests who accompany you to this lunch are known as & lt; Stock god & quot; Mr. Buffett. Secondly, it is charity in the United States. Due to the economic recession, the number of people in need of assistance has soared, and the U.S. foundation has a deficit of about $17 million

Warren & middot; Since 2000, Buffett has auctioned the opportunity to share lunch with him once a year, and the auction revenue will be used to fund the poor, low-income and homeless people in San Francisco. The buyer of this high price lunch hopes to achieve the expected business purpose

in 2019, the post-90s sun Yuchen, who is playing wave currency, offered us $4.567 million to accompany Warren Buffett to dinner. Sun said on his microblog that he and the stock god ate steak to let him understand the value of digital currency

Warren Buffett once said, & lt; Digital currency is worthless and a tool for swindlers& ldquo; Away from bitcoin, it's just an illusion;, Bitcoin is more toxic than rat poison & quot& hellip;& hellip; Shortly after the auction, sun Yuchen said he was treated in hospital for a sudden kidney stone and canceled lunch with Warren Buffett. In the early morning of July 25, sun Yuchen tweeted that the lunch incident has graally evolved into a failed over marketing, which has had a bad impact on the public and caused the concern of regulators; I'm very sorry

Sina Financial reports that sun Yuchen is currently restricted from leaving the country, and the state Internet financial risk management office has sent a letter to the public security department. It is suggested that sun Yuchen be formally put on file for investigation because he is suspected of illegal fund-raising, money laundering, gambling, pornography and other reasons

the celebrity effect can arouse the public's wide attention, so many people are competing to pay for the sky high price lunch. The same is to eat this high price steak, e to different motives, different people's health, the effect also varies from person to person

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