Economics bitcoin

1. Not only is there a bubble in the bitcoin economy itself, but even in bitcoin articles. A few weeks ago, I wrote some essays about my understanding of bitcoin; But my feeling is that I can't say exactly what bitcoin will look like in the future. And for all of us, what the future of bitcoin will be is probably one of the reasons why people are interested in this phenomenon. Therefore, instead of trying to judge in an unfamiliar field, I made contact with a number of economists involved in this field, who made a brief exposition of the future of the currency. It should be pointed out that I only seek the opinions of these economists through informal channels, so their statements on the future of the bitcoin are probably not so serious. Interestingly, many professors have not even heard of bitcoin, so they have not discussed it. I will probably consult them again later this year. Fortunately, I finally found some economists who are willing and able to participate in this topic. Here are their views on the future of bitcoin. Chris Robert, Professor of public policy and economic development at Harvard University: if a lot of smart people choose to believe more in a monetary system built and managed largely by anonymous computer hackers than in a monetary system built and managed by a real government, Then it can only be said that there are some problems. Fortunately, the situation we are facing is not so bad. For now, bitcoin is still largely a matter of media speculation, which comes from the ongoing financial turmoil and growing distrust in the global financial system. But this kind of media speculation is likely to prolong the ration of financial speculation. In this period, more and more financial experts will seek a new bubble and profit from it. Compared with corporate securities, futures and even derivatives, bitcoin's basic sense of value is more limited. Disintegrate and torn by dissension, the new loopholes will not lead to collapse of all the things. All of us do not care about the lack of anonymity. People who lose their private keys and may damage a small part of their wealth will not complain too much, and the improvement of the "mining" Trojan will not cause a sudden impact on the supply of bitcoin. Profit from any type of bubble may be a risky business, but there is no shortage of people who are willing to go all out in the global economy. Therefore, as an exciting new tool for financial speculation, bitcoin may continue to exist in the future. Robert McMillan, former FTC and Stanford economist, HNC advisors, head of portfolio management and director of quantitative research at investment companies: bitcoin is doomed. It's an unchangeable fate. Bitcoin has great value, such as easy to store, difficult to steal, and difficult to forge trading media. In particular, it will not cause species extinction (such as white oyster teeth or ivory), and will not cause direct damage to the environment; Unfortunately, anyone familiar with Paul Krugman's statement of "liquidity trap" knows that bitcoin's known and limited supply means that it is doomed not to be an effective alternative currency. In addition, bitcoin has no obvious use value (which is different from platinum), so it will be completely destroyed. However, the defect of bitcoin is proced in the process of its implementation, not in the idea itself. In my opinion, bitcoin will soon face competition from the new entrants of "currency 3.0" in this field. These new entrants will repair the defects of bitcoin, so they are more likely to realize the gold standard of currency acceptance, that is, to introce another important currency into the liquidity market of foreign exchange forward trading. In any case, we should pay attention to these new currencies. Their "mining" costs may be high, and their supply is unlimited, even with use value (such as passwords). In other words, the currency that really changes the market may be coming soon Matthew bishop, senior editor of the economist in the United States: as I recently published my e-book "in gold we trust?" on the future of money As pointed out in, the revival of gold and the emergence of bitcoin are just two sides of the same coin; In the era of "quantitative easing", the market has lost the sense of trust in the health of "legal tender" supported by the government, and both of them are the market's response to the lack of trust. I think that bitcoin and other digital money algorithms developed in Silicon Valley to control supply will help create a good way to store value. For these digital currencies, the biggest risk is that the government may take action to destroy alternative currencies other than legal tender. But what happens if a sovereign also issues an algorithm based currency? Will it push legal tender out of the market? Brett Gordon, a professor at Columbia University's business school: there are two main areas of discussion about the future of bitcoin. The first area of discussion is based on the short-term future. The focus is on when the bitcoin is a bubble. When will the bubble burst? As everyone knows, it is difficult to predict when a speculative bubble will end. If someone can be lucky enough to accurately predict the time of burst, then we can make a lot of money with this prediction. However, for us ordinary people, it is unrealistic to do this. Bitcoin's price chart reminds me of the Nasdaq market between 1995 and early 2000. Obviously, there are obvious differences between them; But in my view, what happened in the Nasdaq market ring this period can represent many of the price bubbles that have not yet been broken. From the trend chart of Google Trends, bitcoin also presents a similar form, indicating that when the media craze about digital currency graally fades, investors' interest in this kind of currency may also fade. The second category focuses on the long-term future of bitcoin. The focus is: what will the bitcoin market look like in the next five to ten years? Compared with predicting when the bubble will burst, it is more difficult to predict the long-term future of the bitcoin market. I think one of the important contributions of the bitcoin market is that it can serve as a "proof of concept" for decentralized secret money. Bitcoin has two advantages. One is that it is deflationary in nature; Second, transactions using bitcoin are anonymous. Given the recent series of financial crises and growing concerns about online privacy, these two benefits are good for bitcoin, as well as for any secret currency that will rise in the future. Peter Rodriguez, a professor at the University of Virginia's Darden School of business: at first glance, bitcoin is nothing special; In fact, almost everything can be used as "pseudo money.". Moreover, deep concerns about fiat money and measures to avoid the risk of relying on central banks are nothing new. In fact, in the post gold standard era, the popularity of legal (paper) money is surprising. However, when the market's confidence in fiat money graally weakens, people will turn to recognizable and reliable value storage methods, which is not unimaginable in the current world. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia and other countries separated from the former Soviet Union used highly functional "Trinity" currency substitutes, that is, cigarettes for small items, vodka for medium items, and French brandy for high price items. To some extent, bitcoin is just a package of virtual cigarettes; But on the other hand, this virtual currency is revolutionary. Cigarettes have inherent value, and can be used for many purposes like cotton, even a little like gold; In contrast, the pricing of bitcoin is spontaneous, and its applicability as an alternative currency is not as good as paper currency or baseball card. Therefore, if bitcoin can establish its own value and let investors have confidence in it for a long enough time, the mechanism that can eventually turn this currency from a popular means of value storage into a real currency may begin to form and develop; Then bitcoin could become a reliable trading medium and index value, having its place in the world's monetary system. Even if bitcoin is only used to measure the value of goods ultimately traded in "real" currency, it will become a brand new thing, that is, real virtual currency regardless of country, rooted in the market's confidence in the whole set of rules established around this currency. Of course, bitcoin may "implode", which is not extremely impossible; However, any currency will always be tested, and all currencies have experienced a survival crisis.

2. Are you really poor enough? Which district? Let's see if we're going alone. If we're in, I can help you

3. I have to refute the one above or below. It doesn't matter what the economists think. Don't you know that the people who manipulate business are all economists? You don't think people in economics are professors who can only talk, do you? I tell you, the one who developed bitcoin is also playing economics. If he has not studied economics and has considerable attainments in economics, I will not say that he has studied economics in the future
bitcoin has nothing to say, just a speculative proct, you can buy or sell, but if you can't distinguish the time and can't sell it in time, you will lose money. Let me explain to you: if you spend 4000 yuan to buy a bitcoin today, it will rise to 4500 tomorrow, maybe it will rise to 6000 the day after tomorrow, but, In other words, there is no stable price for bitcoin. However, the price of bitcoin will rise or fall depending on how many people are speculating with how much capital. The more capital you have, the more valuable bitcoin will be. The less capital you have, the less valuable bitcoin will be. During this period, you have to master the propriety. If you don't master it well, you will lose money and lose money, You can make a lot of money by opening and closing your eyes

4. He subverted what he had learned all his life
in the past, the telephone operator was a big job, but later they were replaced, and they fought desperately
to say that money must be issued by the government is like saying that a car must have wheels. If one day BMW and Mercedes Benz can transport goods and run fast, it's not a car? You're going to fight like hell? The government's currency only guarantees a stable quantity, can't be forged, is easy to identify the authenticity, and has uniqueness (suppress other currencies to compete, through this kind of suppression, indirectly force everyone to accept, you don't accept RMB, what do you accept Note: never force anyone to accept it directly. Whether these features can be well done needs to be questioned. If it's done well, how is the price going up? Why does RMB depreciate so fast? The governor of the central bank also admitted: paper money is too easy to forge. There are a lot of forged paper money in the market, and even the counting machine has been cheated. I want to say: what is printed by the central bank's banknote printing machine is not counterfeit money? Printing as you like is real money
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money can be anything, as long as we recognize and reach a consensus. How can we admit that the earliest use is the necessities of life, such as cattle and sheep salt. Later, we found that these things can be used as currency, but they are inconvenient and not the best currency. All people look for small, easy to carry, not easy to deteriorate, the number of slow growth, easy to change things as money. We found shells, gold, silver, copper and iron. Small pieces of silver need to be weighed, and the transaction is not convenient, so the government comes forward to cast standard sized silver coins. Later, it was found that gold coins / silver coins / gold bars took too much effort to proce, and these things could be used for many purposes, but after they were used as currency, people were reluctant to use them for other purposes. Since people don't care what money itself is, as long as it is small, easy to carry, not easy to deteriorate, not to be over issued, not to be forged, and easy to cut and change, it can be used as money. So why not draw complex symbols on the paper to prevent forgery and use numbers to indicate the amount of money? It's so convenient. Later, it was found that the numeral symbol such as bank account / Alipay is more convenient than banknote, so people do not care about whether the paper exists, so long as there is a number, it can go shopping as long as others accept it.

5. In fact, the reason is very simple: a group of people who are not willing to be controlled by the government have developed their own currency. Most of them were used by hackers to launder drugs
later, since it lived for a long time. Now because of global policy or economic instability. It attracted more people who didn't believe in the government
this group is getting bigger and bigger! Economics serves the country, and money serves the country.

6. Generally speaking, currency itself has no value and only reflects its value in circulation. However, bitcoin's current algorithm is rather complex, without an evolutionary mechanism and can't evolve on its own. At present, bitcoin still can't meet the needs of large-scale use. Moreover, the earth is a multi-ethnic country, which, like the euro, is always so unstable, Therefore, at present, there are still some problems that have not been solved, so most economists are skeptical

7. Because this virtual currency will disturb the normal financial market, and the risk of uncontrollability of virtual currency is relatively large, it is easy to carry out network fraud activities.

8. I don't know much about blockchain technology. Maybe the technology itself can be used by the government to do other things. But mining doesn't make sense. It's a waste of computing power and electricity. If there is a mechanism, for example, scientists submit scientific computing problems and then pay civil computing power a certain amount of remuneration, it is quite reliable. It is recommended to pay close attention to the "regional TV network" to learn more about blockchain and take you into a new world.

9. It subverts the traditional centralized monetary system