March 12 BTC Market
the price of bitcoin is always floating, so the price of bitcoin for RMB is always changing. From the beginning, a few years ago, when bitcoin was converted into RMB, it was only one to several, and finally it graally developed to one to more than ten, and then to one to dozens. At this time, it has been very shocking, and many people think it is a very strange phenomenon, As a virtual currency, although many people don't know what its main function is, most people think it's a bit similar to stocks, so they made a series of investments in bitcoin. Until January 2020, the value of bitcoin has grown crazily, rising to nearly 1:47000 this growth rate has exceeded most excellent stocks. Many people are shocked and often want to understand why this phenomenon occurs. In fact, my analysis is mainly caused by the following reasons:
3 Of course, one of the main reasons why the price of bitcoin has risen so fast is also related to the psychology of chasing up and killing down. For example, when many stocks have been rising, more people will buy them, but when they are falling, many people withdraw because of fear. So far, bitcoin's rise is still very large, Therefore, some people think it has investment value, so they have been buying it
bitcoin China announced that in accordance with the spirit of the document "Notice of the people's Bank of China Central Network Information Office, Ministry of instry and information technology, State Administration for Instry and commerce, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission on preventing the financing risk of token Issuance" issued on September 4, and adhering to the principle of preventing investment risk and protecting the interests of users to the maximum extent, bitcoin China team has carefully discussed, Three decisions were made: first, bitcoin China digital asset trading platform stopped new user registration from yesterday; Second, on September 30, 2017, the digital asset trading platform will stop all trading businesses. Third, bitcoin China's mining pool (national pool) and other businesses will not be affected by this and will continue to operate normally
affected by this news, bitcoin, lightcoin and Ethereum all fell sharply. By the time of Beijing Youth Daily, the price of bitcoin was 21600 yuan, with a 24-hour drop of 12.51%. During the day, bitcoin once fell below 20000 yuan, with the lowest price reaching 19597 yuan; Ethereum quoted 1472 yuan, down 14.56%; Lightcoin fell the most, offering 299 yuan, down more than 23%
bitcoin China, the first and largest bitcoin trading platform in China, is operated by Shanghai satuxi Network Co., Ltd., which was established on June 9, 2011. The team members are mainly from China, Silicon Valley and Europe
on March 12, 2014, bitcoin China officially launched the lightcoin transaction, with a total transaction volume of more than 30 million yuan
on September 30, 2017, bitcoin China stopped all trading business
the first time I bought bitcoin and the first time I bought Ethereum was in bitcoin China. The collapse of bitcoin China and other exchanges means that China has lost its pricing power in the field of virtual currency.
The impact of the okex incident on the currency market is fading; With the US election becoming increasingly white hot, the difficulty and hash rate of bitcoin are higher than before
in terms of price, so far, BTC has rushed to around us $11720, with a 24-hour increase of more than 2%
so the question is: where will bitcoin go in the next week
here are five factors that may affect the BTC price trend in the coming week
No.1 US macro level: election and stimulus plan this week, the US is the absolute focus of the macro market. The US presidential election will soon usher in a decisive moment (November 3)
analysts warn that if the Democratic Party (Biden) wins, the dollar will depreciate - and the long-term outlook for the dollar is already precarious. Goldman Sachs said last week that Trump's re-election was not enough to get the dollar out of danger
however, no matter what the election result is, professionals recommend buying gold as a hedge. However, in the view of others, bitcoin may bring more profits
However, e to the inverse correlation between BTC / USD and the dollar currency index (DXY), the strength of the US dollar, in the view of some bitcoin traders, will still affect the price trend of bitcoin. Although this correlation has become less and less obvious in recent weeks, the sudden weakness of the US dollar is still likely to be a boon for bitcoin
six month chart of US dollar currency index. Source: tradingview
at the same time, not only the election, but also what happened before is also a topic of interest. Specifically, a coronavirus stimulus plan was in place before polling day
If this happens, trillions of dollars of liquidity will increase the growing debt pile of the United States, and Americans will see additional benefits, such as an additional $1200 economic stimulus planNo.2 Europe suggests more intervention
with the outbreak again, the European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further measures
European Central Bank President Christina; In an interview with Le Monde on Monday, Lagarde said the European Central Bank would use more financial instruments if necessary
the European Central Bank's coronavirus stimulus program has purchased a total of 1.5 trillion euros of assets
"We haven't run out of options in our toolbox yet," says Lagardebrexit is increasingly moving towards "no agreement" brexit, which makes the possibility of instability worse
No.3 the fundamentals of bitcoin have reached a new high
recently, bitcoin has maintained a strong resilience in the face of various black swan events. Influenced by okex, BTC recently dropped below $11200, but recovered steadily soon. So far, it has exceeded $11600
and on the technical level, the fundamentals of bitcoin also maintained a record strength this month
two days ago, the difficulty of the latest adjustment increased by 3.5% than expected
at the same time, the hash rate also climbed to a record high on Monday. At the time of publication, the estimated computing power for mining is 146 exahashs (EH / s) per second
as often reported in the media, the popular theory is that the price follows the hash rate, because the long-term investment prospect of bitcoin is better than ever before
bitcoin 7-day average hash rate 1-month chart
No.4 analysts focus on $12000 BTC price breakthrough
for famous analyst Micha & # 235; For Lvan de Poppe, the key price conversion of bitcoin is becoming more and more reasonable
in his latest video update on Sunday, he stressed that the significant resistance level of weekly closing price below US $12000 for several consecutive years will soon end
Van de Popper believes that since the beginning of the bear market in early 2018, US $12000 has become the rejection point of the weekly chart, but the consolidation below cannot last forever
he concluded: "we are likely to rebound to the range of US $16000 to US $17000, because this is the obvious level and the last obstacle for bitcoin to begin to break through the all-time high."
after this move, there will be another consolidation period, which may last longer than the current period
van der BOPP added that he advised viewers to work hard to accumulate bitcoin, even in the $16000 range
BTC / USD 7-day price trend chart. Data source: coin360
No.5 market sentiment: greed is back
with the graal strengthening of prices, investor sentiment is also changing: data shows that investor sentiment is becoming more and more greedy. In the latest market data, the fear and greed index has returned to the "greedy" area, rising slightly from "neutral" in the past week
this indicates that bitcoin investors' emotional expectations will be bullish, but it should be noted that if the price rises too fast, "greed" will become "extreme greed", in which case the index is more likely to callback
among them, bitcoin may rise or fall by a small margin, but not by a large margin. Of course, it once broke through the line of defense of 2000 yuan, but then it broke through 2000 yuan, hovering around 2000 yuan. Since the evening of November 12, the price of bitcoin has been soaring all the way to around 2800. At present, it is hovering at this stage. Bitcoin may soar all the way last year, but the current trend is not obvious. We're still waiting
I suggest you go to bitcoin house to see the latest information.
1, the short-term factors that determine the price: supply and demand and market sentiment
the relationship between supply and demand means that if the amount of money spent on buying bitcoin is more than that spent on selling bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will rise. If more people buy bitcoin, it will rise
market sentiment refers to the views of the market and the media on the price trend of bitcoin at that time. When many people strongly see bitcoin, the market sentiment is confident, and the price of bitcoin will rise rapidly. If the media makes pessimistic reports on the price of bitcoin, it will affect people's confidence and lead people to sell bitcoin, and the price of bitcoin will fall
2, the medium-term factors that determine the price: policy, news and mining cost
on the policy side, it is the policy attitude of governments towards bitcoin. For example, the recent crackdown and regulation of bitcoin by the South Korean government has led to a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin in the near future. If more and more countries support and encourage the development of bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will be higher and higher. On the contrary, if many countries begin to suppress bitcoin, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall
on the news side, there are some important things in the bitcoin instry. For example, around December, the two major stock exchanges in the United States launched bitcoin futures, which are good for bitcoin and directly push the price of bitcoin up to about $20000
mining cost is the cost of bitcoin miners using machines to dig out bitcoin. At present, the cost of digging out a bitcoin is about 12000 US dollars, so it is difficult for the price of bitcoin to fall below 12000 US dollars. Mining cost is the bottom line of bitcoin price. With the continuous increase of mining costs, the reason is that more competitors enter the mining field, especially many large institutions, companies and countries
3 determines the long-term price factors: the US dollar trend, the global bubble, the official digital currency, and the block chain technology.
the trend of the US dollar. According to the personal analysis data, the US dollar will weaken in the next few years, which means that the global monetary system with us dollar as the world currency in the past will be rebuilt. The rise and future of bitcoin is to assume the identity and mission of the world currency
global bubble. Since the United States abolished the gold standard Bretton Woods system in 70s, many countries in the United States have been printing banknote printing machines. The bubble of currency has caused the global economic bubble and asset bubble. The global economic crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 is the crisis triggered by the currency bubble. At present, the global economic bubble and asset bubble have reached the critical point of collapse. The birth of bitcoin was e to the reason of the currency bubble, which made people no longer believe in the currency of national credit, and began to believe and recognize bitcoin.
official digital currency, countries around the world have begun to prepare to issue official digital currency, that is, digital currency issued by countries. Venezuela has issued a national level digital currency - Petroleum currency. Israel is preparing to issue it, Russia is also preparing to issue it, and the Japanese government is issuing it. 2018 will become the first year of the global official digital currency. The accelerated launch of official digital currency and its increasing popularity show that the value of bitcoin as internet currency is unlimited.
on March 12, the price of bitcoin fell to US $3800
if you want to pay attention to the price fluctuation, you can check it directly on the market software, which is more timely than the information you get by asking questions.
the biggest driving force behind the recent sharp rise of bitcoin comes from musk, the "king of goods". According to the documents submitted by Tesla to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it invests part of its idle funds in specific reserve assets such as digital currency, gold bars and tradable gold funds
among them, Tesla has invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin, and said that it may acquire and hold digital assets for a long time, and expects to accept bitcoin as a payment method in the future. Since then, bitcoin has broken through the $40000 mark and has risen all the way to nearly $50000
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extended materials
the risk of investing in bitcoin can't be borne by ordinary people:
on March 12, bitcoin price surged all the way up, breaking the $58000 mark in the short term, which is only one step away from a record high. However, in this seemingly "calm" period, bitcoin price suddenly collapsed around 9 pm, After falling below the three levels of US $58000, US $57000 and US $56000 in succession, it fell by more than US $3000 within two hours, and the lowest price dropped to around us $55088
this wave of rapid decline in the market led to more than 600 million US dollars of burst funds in multiple transactions on the same day, and tens of thousands of traders were forced out. In the face of a flash crash, there are not a few investors who burst positions without a trace of preparedness or no time to operate. Therefore, most people can not bear the risk of investing in bitcoin